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The POD is Princess Elizabeth Stuart surviving. The Restoration takes place on schedule, and December 1660, the dukes of Gloucester and York both catch smallpox and die. The Princess Royal and Lady Elizabeth live (assuming Lizzie isn't married off somewhere yet). Mary already has a son (Elizabeth died in September 1650, Willem III was born in November - so unless you take a slightly earlier POD that Willem is born a girl instead, I suppose there's the possibility that Willem dies in infancy), but I'd imagine that's not exactly great news. So, probably, Mary gets remarried, Elizabeth gets married (if not already), Minette married Philippe d'Orléans in 1661, so I imagine that the negotiations were already underway in December 1660.

Charles will probably still marry Catherine of Braganza (no one can know there won't be children). But what happens when Catherine hits menopause and there's still no prince of Wales/princess royal born? Mary is obviously set to be Queen Mary II if she lives long enough, but how does this affect Willem's prospects in the Netherlands? Louis XIV's actions against the Dutch?
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