Charles Ferdinand, Duc of Berry lives

CaliGuy

Banned
In our TL, Charles Ferdinand, Duc of Berry (see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Ferdinand,_Duke_of_Berry )--the second son of French King Charles X, was assassinated by a crazy Bonapartist in February 1820. Meanwhile, his wife gave birth to his posthumous son--Henri, Comte de Chambord (as in, the guy who rejected the French throne in the early 1870s in our TL)--seven months later.

Anyway, what if Charles Ferdinand survives this assassination attempt? Specifically, how would it have affected French politics?

For instance, would Louis Philippe still be able to usurp the throne in 1830 if Charles Ferdinand (who was an adult with a stronger claim to the French throne than Louis Philippe) was still alive during this time?

Also, had he lived, I am presuming that Charles Ferdinand would have had more children--including more sons. Thus, even if events in our TL go the same route (absent butterflies) up to the early 1870s, could the existence of one of more younger brothers--thus ensuring the French throne won't fall into the hands of the Orleanists after his death--have convinced Henri, Comte de Chambord (Henri's father Charles Ferdinand would have very likely been dead by the early 1870s in this TL, given that he would have been in his 90s at this point in time) to compromise and to accept the French throne and the French tricolor flag (which was a problem for him in our TL)?

Anyway, any thoughts on all of this?
 
For instance, would Louis Philippe still be able to usurp the throne in 1830 if Charles Ferdinand (who was an adult with a stronger claim to the French throne than Louis Philippe) was still alive during this time?

Certainly yes, since there was an adult elder-line Bourbon, the Dauphin (duke of Angoulême), and Charles X actually abdicated in his favor. If the first son was not acceptable in 1830 then the second one would not have been any better.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Certainly yes, since there was an adult elder-line Bourbon, the Dauphin (duke of Angoulême), and Charles X actually abdicated in his favor. If the first son was not acceptable in 1830 then the second one would not have been any better.
The Dauphin withdrew his claim after 20 minutes in favor of Henri, though; would Charles Ferdinand have done the same thing?
 
Certainly yes, since there was an adult elder-line Bourbon, the Dauphin (duke of Angoulême), and Charles X actually abdicated in his favor. If the first son was not acceptable in 1830 then the second one would not have been any better.

Berri was *conservative, but popular (especially with the army, but with a lot of the populace as well) because he was bluff and hearty (think of a French version of William IV) IIRC. Angoulême was *liberal, but hyperchondriac/neurasthenic and his abdication was strongly influenced by Madame Royal from what I've read. So, remove Madame Royal from the events at that time, and IDK if he would've abdicated. Angoulême was likewise a good soldier (1000 Sons of St. Louis), but I fear he might've been a king a lot like Louis XVI (good man doesn't mean a good king), which might have been (at least part of) the reason Madame Royal persuaded him to abdicate: she was afraid of ending up like her mother.
 
The Dauphin withdrew his claim after 20 minutes in favor of Henri, though; would Charles Ferdinand have done the same thing?

Even if he didn't by that point you were not going to end up with a child of Charles X on the throne, that ship had sailed, the best you could hope for is a Donitz like situation of a 5 day reign where he never ruled beyond the palace walls. If you want to save the mainline Bourbons you need either a more popular Charles (very difficult) or a much earlier abdication (also difficult).
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Berri was *conservative, but popular (especially with the army, but with a lot of the populace as well) because he was bluff and hearty (think of a French version of William IV) IIRC. Angoulême was *liberal, but hyperchondriac/neurasthenic and his abdication was strongly influenced by Madame Royal from what I've read. So, remove Madame Royal from the events at that time, and IDK if he would've abdicated. Angoulême was likewise a good soldier (1000 Sons of St. Louis), but I fear he might've been a king a lot like Louis XVI (good man doesn't mean a good king), which might have been (at least part of) the reason Madame Royal persuaded him to abdicate: she was afraid of ending up like her mother.
This would certainly be interesting if true. Indeed, it certainly didn't help that Angouleme was impotent and weak-willed.

Now, do you think that this would have been enough to prevent Louis-Philippine from acquiring the French throne in 1830?

Even if he didn't by that point you were not going to end up with a child of Charles X on the throne, that ship had sailed, the best you could hope for is a Donitz like situation of a 5 day reign where he never ruled beyond the palace walls. If you want to save the mainline Bourbons you need either a more popular Charles (very difficult) or a much earlier abdication (also difficult).

So, distancing himself from his father won't save Charles Ferdinand, Duke of Berry?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, even if Louis-Philippe still comes to power in France in 1830 in this TL, how does a surviving Duke of Berry--as well as the fact that he will very likely have more than one surviving son in this TL--influence relations between the Orleanists and the Legitimists after Louis-Philippe's overthrow in 1848?

For instance, in the early 1870s (if Napoleon III is still overthrown on schedule, that is), would the Orleanists have been as willing to rally behind the claim of the Comte de Chambord to the French throne? After all, if the Comte de Chambord has one or more younger brothers in this TL (which is likely) and at least one of them has his own male children, then the Orleanists would have absolutely no chance to acquire the French throne after the death of the Comte de Chambord in this TL. Thus, would they have been as willing to back his claim to the French throne in the 1870s in this TL as they were in our TL?
 
So, distancing himself from his father won't save Charles Ferdinand, Duke of Berry?

No, Berry wasn't an ultra reactionary like his father but unless he had a massive and public split from him and went for a Citizen Egalite approach (which would require a personality transplant) he would not be acceptable.

As for post Nappy 3 there are a lot of butterflies between 1830 and 1870 but a continuing Legitimist line would ensure that the Monarchists are more divided than OTL and they were too divided in OTL.
 
Don't mind if I do! Surprisingly enough (considering my late Bourbon obsession) I've never really explored the idea of the Due de Berry surviving. Now first off I'm not entirely sure what his political views were. The English Wikipedia and my Bio on Madame Royale imply he was quite conservative, similar to his father and sister-in-law. However the French Wikipedia states that politically he was a constitutional-liberal in the mold of his uncle Louis XVIII. I'm more inclined to trust the native language Wiki but without a trusted source I'm unsure. Personally I think the best scenario would be no assassination attempt at all or Louvel (the assassin) is arrested before he stabs the Duc. An attempted assassination can be just as easily used by the Ultras as a successful one.

Anyway, second is the immediate ramifications. The Duc's assassination led to the downfall of the moderate Prime Minister Decazes and led to the rise of the Ultra-Royalists, the faction-party that completely rejected the Revolution and wanted to turn back the clock to 1789. The electorate was shrank, the Universities fell under government control, secondary education was placed under clerical supervision and freedom of the press was curtailed. In effect Berry's assassination slammed shut the door to a moderate Bourbon France. So at the least Decazes stays in power and his plan to "Nationalize the monarchy and royalize France" continues, as does the Doctrine party's support of rapid Industrialization, which held restore France's damaged economy in the late 1810s. Now I don't think that the Duc's survival would change anything in regards to Spain, expect maybe both brothers leading the expedition. Even if the electoral laws are still changed, which is possible as Louis XVIII was very concerned over the 1819 election of Abbé Henri Grégoire (who voted for Louis XVI's guilt, though not execution, in 1793) and possible intervention by the Holy Alliance over French "liberalism", this doesn't guarantee that the Ultras will win without the martyred Duc as a rallying cry.

Third, Charles X's reign. We all know that Charles was the Ultrast of the Ultras but I've never actually considered whether or not his son's murder pushed him to do and support things that he wouldn't OTL. While I personally doubt that Berry's survival would change much of Charles's reign, I have to include the possibility. Something else to consider is the possibility that Charles's reign doesn't open with the Ultras controlling the Parliament, meaning his unpopular laws (the law of indemnification, the Anti-Sacrilege Act and the Law of Primogeniture) are never introduced/passed. There's also the possibility of the Berrys becoming a center of the opposition as the next in line after the childless Dauphin and Dauphine. Finally we could see Charles X's reign be like James II's was before the birth of the Prince of Wales: unpopular but tolerated until the accession of his heir. But again I must say that realistically a July revolution analogue is highly likely.

Now the July revolution is where @Thoresby and I fundamentally disagree. Personally I'm of the opinion that the revolution, isolated as it was to Paris and the Île-de-France, could have been put down if someone at the head of the Royalists was willing to make the tough decision and give the Parisians another whiff of grapeshot. After all, it worked during the June rebellion in 1832 and the June days in 1848. Here we have the Duc de Berry, popular among the army and the common people, a man who seemed to be able to make decisions quickly, alive and well and second in line for the throne. Berry could be able to keep the army loyal to the Bourbons and suppress the rebellion in Paris. If Paris is quickly dealt with then I can't see uprisings happening in other parts of the country. Now who is on the throne I'm unsure of: could be a Charles X under a regency (think Vittorio Emanuele III of Italy), Louis XIX or Charles XI.

Finally, if everything else, including the July revolution, still happens and the Bourbons are forced into exile, then the elder branch still has a glimmer of hope. The Duc and Duchesse de Berry are in charge of their children's education, not the Dauphine and Charles X. With moderately liberal parents we're likely to see moderately liberal children as well. Also no Modenese marriage; the Dauphine wanted it and the Duchesse de Berry did not. The Duchesse's remarriage meant she lacked the support to block it but here the Berrys wouldn't allow it. Maybe the Russian match goes forward instead? So if an when another opportunity arises (it's nineteenth century France, I'm more included to when over if) the Bourbons could just as easily be the ones the country turns to be it 1848 or 1871. This could shape up to be a really cool TL if someone wants to take a crack at it. Hell if I wasn't already working on a new TL I'd certainly try it.
 
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