Chaos: The Presidential Election of 1996

Awesome timeline. I've always thought Powell would have had a chance if he'd run. Nice to see a split ticket with Dole as the President and Voinovich as VP. Powell taking the Secretary of State position early would be cool.

I think Dole, would be favored to win reelection given the strength of the economy during 97-01.
 

maverick

Banned
I can't believe I read this from the beginning but forgot to check out the finale!:p

You did an excellent job maintaining the suspense even when the result was obvious (the clear result was Powell dividing the vote, the election then thrown to the House and the Republican congress picking Dole)...yet this was so awesome!

I only wished you continued with the Dole administration...

Perhaps you could cover a scandal in the 2004 election concerning the polls, an alternate modern watergate or the supreme court...

Congratulations...
 

burmafrd

Banned
How about a scandal in the Florida districts that were so messed up in 2000- only in 2004 more rabid democrats decide to take no chances and find a way to stuff the ballot box. Kerry wins florida and thus the presidency. Then in early 2005, say about April or May, it is found out and the ringleaders defiantly say they have no regrets. What happens then?
 

maverick

Banned
Then the lack of butterfly effects cause the Hadron collider to destroy the world...

Kerry's nomination would be butterflied away...even presuming that Gore is nominated and beaten in 2000
 

Jasen777

Donor
From: Dead on Arrival - The Story of the Dole Presidency

Election fallout -

Politicians and pundits had of course already been decrying the possibility of a Dole Presidency. The public, by and large, had however taken a more wait and see approach to the situation. This changed when the House finally selected Dole and made him President-Elect.

The public reacted with anger at the obvious unfairness. Dole had finished third in the popular vote, with only 26.7% of the vote. A whopping 73.3% of the country had not voted for Dole. Dole had even finished third in the electoral vote as well. That fact that Dole was stuck with vice-president George Voinovich, a person he had not ran with, was a further irritant, but not one that the average vote cared that much about.

Dole's favorability ratings, already low, dropped even further. Many people begun to talk about Dole being a four-year lame duck. One Democratic Representative declared that the Dole Presidency was "dead on arrival," a phrase that was used to describe bills that had no chance of passing….

The election had left the Republicans in an unusual, perhaps unprecedented, situation. They had captured the Presidency after the four year Clinton interruption, and had held on to their majority in both houses of Congress. However, Dole's popularity was threatening historical lows even as he was being sworn in, and Congress's popularity was plummeting as well. Dole tried to reach out to Powell supporters by offering him the position of Secretary of State, but Powell declined. Many viewed this as the final nail in the coffin, dooming the Dole Presidency.


1997-1998 -

None of this changed the fact that the Republicans would hold the reigns of government for at least two years. There was little they could do however. Moderate Republicans often failed to toe the party line, especially in the Senate. It seemed safe to say that after a scant two-and a half years the Gingrich revolution was over. Therefore, not much new business was accomplished in Congress…

Perhaps the most interesting politics of the period were attempts to change the presidential election system. Most such proposals focused on taking Congress out of the picture in one way or another. The two most ambitious plans were likely the Popular Vote Method and the Electoral College Run-off Method. The Popular Vote Method would simply see the winner of the popular vote win the office. The Electoral College Run-off Method, in the event of no candidate winning a majority of the electoral vote, would see a run-off between the top two candidates. The run-off would be under the existing Electoral College rules.

Since any significant change to the election system would require a constitutional amendment, it is unsurprising that none of these plans came very close to being adopted. One attempt to bypass this need was the National Popular Vote State Compact. The NPVSC would see states agree to pledge their electors to the winner of the national popular vote. Since this would require agreement from a large number of states, this plan also proved impossible to implement…
 
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Yes! More! :D

I can't imagine how bitter Clinton must be over everything. Not to mention Powell's supporters, of course. Bitterness all around, really..

Winning the election might have been the worst thing to happen to the GOP, it sounds like.

I'm surprised they couldn't settle on national popular vote?
 
Interesting, Dole would likely become a lame-duck presidency on arrival...It would be interesting to see what would he declare in his Inagural Address...Would Dole knowing his fate try to implement any new policies like his 15% Income tax cut or even the Human Life Amendment? Also what will he do when Kosovo rolls around? Or will he be more of an Hawk in Iraq in trying to get Saddam removed from power in Iraq? Also what does he give Voinovich to do?
 

Jasen777

Donor
I'm surprised they couldn't settle on national popular vote?

It'd take an amendment, and a amendment needs a 2/3 majority in both house. The Republicans won't do this because it'd be viewed as admitting Dole is an illegitimate president.

Historico said:
Would Dole knowing his fate try to implement any new policies like his 15% Income tax cut or even the Human Life Amendment?

Also what does he give Voinovich to do?

Congress is having difficulty with anything other than maintaining the status quo. And dealing pork all around of course. Voinovich doesn't get to do much.
 

maverick

Banned
Good to see this one back...

Can't wait to see how this plays out...

Maybe Dole uses the Foreing policy to distract the public, just like Clinton did in Kosovo during the Lewinsky affair...

Dole could use the USS Cole incident or take a hard-line against Iraq, just like Clinton...

Any ideas for the Dole cabinet?
 
Not really. I'm not going to focus much on the Dole Presidency, except as it sets that stage for the 2000 election.

What happens in the 1998 midterms? Has the experience of 1992 and 1996 created a new political party? If so, do they win seats in the House or at least field candidates?
 
G
Any ideas for the Dole cabinet?

Secretary of State: Dick Cheney
Secretary of Defense: Donald Rumsfeld
Attorney General: John R. McKernan, Jr.
Secretary of the Interior: Arlen Specter
Secretary of Labor: Elizabeth Dole


just a few ideas, maybe McCain, no idea where though
 
What's going to happen to Pat Buchanan? He was Dole's running mate -- surely there's some ceremonial posting that a) sates his base and b) gets him the hell out of the way. Problem is, I can't think of any posting where he wouldn't get the administration into serious political trouble, yet which would be high enough for his 'stature'.

Appointed to Dole's Kansas Senate seat? Ambassador to Ireland and the Holy See? Chairman of the RNC?
 
so will Powell form a 3rd party, if he does i can see it winning big, any way the Republicans will take a pounding in the midterms. lose the House maybe the Senate
 

Jasen777

Donor
Thanks for all the comments!

What happens in the 1998 midterms?

That will be the subject of my next update.

BlackMage said:
What's going to happen to Pat Buchanan? He was Dole's running mate -- surely there's some ceremonial posting that a) sates his base and b) gets him the hell out of the way. Problem is, I can't think of any posting where he wouldn't get the administration into serious political trouble, yet which would be high enough for his 'stature'.

Appointed to Dole's Kansas Senate seat? Ambassador to Ireland and the Holy See? Chairman of the RNC?

You're right, something has to be done with Buchanan. Secretary of State would seem to be the poisition he would be entitled to as Dole's running mate, but Dole isn't going to do that (remember Dole doesn't really like Buchanan but was talked into picking him by the party bosses).

Ambassador to the U.N? (Just kidding). Actually, your idea of making him an ambassador to some place where ambassadors don't matter sounds good, but that may not be enough for him. Maybe give him a cabinet post that no one cares about. Transportation? Interior? Energy?

Everyone let me know what you think about this.
 
so will Powell form a 3rd party, if he does i can see it winning big, any way the Republicans will take a pounding in the midterms. lose the House maybe the Senate

It just really doesn't seem to me that Powell would be the type to create a new third party or perhaps collaborate with Perot and try to form a ATL Reform party...He may or may not even run again in 2000,I think coming so close to winning up the presidency and screwing the Republican's over for ditching him was enough for Powell...

The Interesting thing however is what will the Democrats and Republicans do after the midterm elections? In OTL after Perot won his 18% of the vote in 92 there was a big play for both parties to try to reach out to those centrist Independent Minded voters...I think in TTL itll be that times ten especially as the party's gear up for the 2000 election, trying to beat eachother to the center...

However I think it's very well possible that the Dem's nominate an African American, to try to bring back those black voters who voted for Powell in the '96 election...Former Gov Douglas Wilder(Although he toyed with it in '92, A much more wide-open contest,may give him an incentive to throw his hat in the race), Andrew Young or even Carol Mosley Braun would all be good choices...

The Question amongst the Republicans will be whether or not Dole decides to run for reelection(Perhaps Military Victories in Iraq and Kosovo will push his approval ratings back up along the lines of Bush 41 in OTL after Desert Storm)...If so I think we could see a situation much like the Dem's in '44, where the VP is unacceptable to party as a whole and candidates either A. Run to unseat Dole or B. Duke it out for the VP role.
 
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