Chaos: The Presidential Election of 1996
- Thread starter Jasen777
- Start date
I've always wondered what the fall out of an 1824 like scenario in the modern USA might be. The closest we've come, 1968, saw the most likely threat to end the electoral college (Birch-Bayh Amendment).
Nice analysis, Jasen. Quite agree about the reasoning for why the VP can't break a tie in the Senate. Very odd that the Senate has a lesser number to chose from than the House. One would think that keeping them equal or letting the Senate have the top 3 and the House the top 2 might make more sense.
Nice analysis, Jasen. Quite agree about the reasoning for why the VP can't break a tie in the Senate. Very odd that the Senate has a lesser number to chose from than the House. One would think that keeping them equal or letting the Senate have the top 3 and the House the top 2 might make more sense.
Jasen777
Donor
News Article -
Dole Not Voted In - Deadlock Continues
Just when the country was braced for a third place candidate wining the presidency, House Republicans suffered a defeat. Republicans control 26 of the state delegations and therefore Dole's victory was assumed. However, their bid suffered from two defections.
Delaware's only representative, Michael Castle declined to vote. A moderate pro-choice Republican, Castle stated that he could not justify voting for Dole when his state had rejected him, but neither could he vote for Clinton. He hinted he might be open to voting for Powell if a genuine compromise movement arose.
The Republican's second defection came from Nevada. In a surprise move, freshmen Representative Jim Gibbons announced his support for Powell, citing his state's vote for him. This move split the two person Nevada delegation and thus prevented them from voting.
These defections left the vote at 24 for Dole, 21 for Clinton, and 5 non-votes. Thus Dole came up two states short of the needed 26 to win the presidency. Two more votes were held afterwards, with the same results...
Editorial -
The Six Men who could be President
Yesterday's surprise vote by the House of Representatives has thrown the whole presidential picture into chaos. Dole's victory no longer seems certain. Let's take a look at the ways in which six different men could now be president.
Dole - This is the simplest outcome. If the Republicans get their defections back, they do control 26 House delegations and they can vote him into office.
Powell - If the House remains deadlocked, perhaps Powell could emerge as the compromise candidate. He did win the popular vote after all.
Clinton - The House could vote him back into office, although with the Republicans controlling 26 state delegations, it is hard to see how this would happen.
Gore - The Senate votes for the vice-president. If the House remains unable to come to a decision, the Senate's choice will become acting president. Without a Republican candidate, perhaps Gore could persuade the Senate to vote for him.
Voinovich - Or perhaps the Senate could be persuaded to vote for the former Republican governor turned independent.
Gingrich - If the House and the Senate both fail to elect someone, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich will become acting president on Jan. 20th. Hopefully this scenario does not happen…
Dole Not Voted In - Deadlock Continues
Just when the country was braced for a third place candidate wining the presidency, House Republicans suffered a defeat. Republicans control 26 of the state delegations and therefore Dole's victory was assumed. However, their bid suffered from two defections.
Delaware's only representative, Michael Castle declined to vote. A moderate pro-choice Republican, Castle stated that he could not justify voting for Dole when his state had rejected him, but neither could he vote for Clinton. He hinted he might be open to voting for Powell if a genuine compromise movement arose.
The Republican's second defection came from Nevada. In a surprise move, freshmen Representative Jim Gibbons announced his support for Powell, citing his state's vote for him. This move split the two person Nevada delegation and thus prevented them from voting.
These defections left the vote at 24 for Dole, 21 for Clinton, and 5 non-votes. Thus Dole came up two states short of the needed 26 to win the presidency. Two more votes were held afterwards, with the same results...
Editorial -
The Six Men who could be President
Yesterday's surprise vote by the House of Representatives has thrown the whole presidential picture into chaos. Dole's victory no longer seems certain. Let's take a look at the ways in which six different men could now be president.
Dole - This is the simplest outcome. If the Republicans get their defections back, they do control 26 House delegations and they can vote him into office.
Powell - If the House remains deadlocked, perhaps Powell could emerge as the compromise candidate. He did win the popular vote after all.
Clinton - The House could vote him back into office, although with the Republicans controlling 26 state delegations, it is hard to see how this would happen.
Gore - The Senate votes for the vice-president. If the House remains unable to come to a decision, the Senate's choice will become acting president. Without a Republican candidate, perhaps Gore could persuade the Senate to vote for him.
Voinovich - Or perhaps the Senate could be persuaded to vote for the former Republican governor turned independent.
Gingrich - If the House and the Senate both fail to elect someone, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich will become acting president on Jan. 20th. Hopefully this scenario does not happen…
Jasen777
Donor
I think the House should be limited to the top 2 as well, to make it more likely someone will have 26 states. And I agree the fallout could be quite interesting. I wonder if serious 3rd party or independent runs might increase since there's been two in a row (Powell's unprecedented '96 run and Perot's getting 18% in '92). What reforms, if any, to the Electoral College and the reaction of the two major parties will have alot to say about that of course.
That is just confusing as hell. I'm utterly lost, now. Help this foreigner out, people!
If no Presidential candidate achieves 270 electoral college votes (i.e. a majority of all votes, not simply having the most electoral college votes) the election is thrown into the House of Representatives, with the top 3 electoral college winners to choose from.
Each of the 50 state delegations gets one vote (i.e. California gets one vote, Rhode Island gets one vote).
Once again, you need an absolute majority—26 state delegations—rather then simply coming in first.
If no one gets a majority before the 20th of January (Inauguration Day) we turn to the Senate.
The Senate is simpler: the top two electoral college VP candidates get voted on, a VP candidate needs 51 votes (the current Vice-President may not vote).
If the House cannot pick a Presidential candidate and the Senate did pick a VP candidate than the VP candidate becomes President on 20th January.
If no Presidential candidate gets 26 delegations in the House, and neither VP candidate gets 51 votes in the Senate by the 20th of January the Speaker of the House becomes President.
Better?
Slight note (just to confuse matters further) the 20th Amendment further stipulates that if the VP-elect or the Speaker assume the Presidency on January 20th, they do so as Acting President "until a President (or Vice-President [in the case of the Speaker's ascension] shall have qualified."
Hence, the House has to make a decision of some kind, since I beleive it can't consider any other business until it decides on a President (still constrained to chose among the top 3).
Jasen777
Donor
Can you find a reference for that? I've been looking into this myself and haven't been able to find anything concrete on what the House can do after someone has assumed the acting presidency. I can't post my next update until this is resolved. I think it would be most amusing if the House could go on with normal business, but retain the right to select a proper president at any time.
Well, I've been scouring web sites.
I've looked at the following places:
1. House Rules Committee site.
2. Also here for a list of references on House Rules from the Rules Cmte. The best one is Hind's Precendents of the House.
3. House Rules
4. on Congressional precedence for the selection
And I've finally found the answer here (an excerpt from Hind's Precedents of the House). It outlines the rules adopted by the House in 1801 and 1825. In 1801, adjournment was forbidden until the question resolved and the doors were sealed. In 1825, the rules allowed for these provisions to be overriden, but only by by a vote of the States. I think it's pretty clear that the House couldn't take up any other business until it had selected a President, even if it went past the deadline of March 4th / January 20th. This was a bit more vague in 1801, because the 12th Amendment hadn't been passed. In 1996, with both the 12th and the 20th Amendment, things are fairly clear.
The prohibition on taking up other business comes from a couple of sources: while selecting a President, the House is sitting in a Committee of the Whole; this limits what business they can take up. The prohibition on adjournment may further apply not only to the House, but to the House sitting as a Cmte of the Whole. Hence the House can't exit the committee to pursue normal business.
Now the precedent is thus fairly clear. However, there might be a valid arguement as to whether this precedent is an expression of a Constitutional requriement or not. IMO, it is. It would cause an unprecedented amount of crisis if the House could extend the "interregnum" period indefinitely.
However, the rules of the House are formed at the discretion of the House (Article I). Hence, if there's suitable political consensus to take a certain direction, the House can change the rules. However, given the situation with the defection of key Republican Congressman, I doubt you'd have such a consensus--especially because the 1825 rules appear to state that question of order (and thus of changing the rules) normally decided "per capita" (i.e. by individual members) would be decided by a vote of the states. Hence, the defecting Republicans from Delaware and NV could probably block any move to circumvent the rules.
Does this help? Also, I am such a nerd.
Jasen777
Donor
Yes, thanks, that does help. There won't be quite as much chaos as I was hoping for then. But there has been plenty of chaos already and the political fallout should be interesting.
This would be fun to see in real life, because people would be running around trying to find out what they were suppossed to do next.
Jasen777
Donor
From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -
The House's failure to select a president put more pressure on the Senate, which had been hoping to avoid voting on the vice-presidency until the House had decided the presidency. Gathering on Monday, they managed what the house did not, coming to a successful conclusion to their appointed responsibility on the first ballot.
By a 52 to 45 vote, with 3 Republicans abstaining, the Senate made George Voinovich Vice-President Elect. For the Republicans, he was their preferred candidate over Vice-President Gore. (Buchanan was ineligible because he was not in the top two for electoral votes for vice-president). The Democrats did not have the votes to appoint Gore, but they did have enough to boycott and prevent a quorum if they had wished. The prospect of President Gingrich (no matter how short lived his reign may be) may have caused them to bow to the inevitable.
The focus then shifted back to the House, and word came that Representative Gibbons would change his vote and support Dole. This give Dole the support of 25 state delegations, and the pressure aimed at Representative Michael Castle had to be getting very intense…
Jan. 9th -
News Article
Third Place's a Charm: Dole becomes President-Elect
Voinovich to be Vice-president
Senator Dole, who finished in third place in both the popular vote and the electoral vote, was selected by the House yesterday to be the next president. This success was made possible by the return of Representatives Gibbons and Castle to the Republican Party's wishes.
"We had no choice," Castle said. "If we hadn't selected a candidate, it could have gridlocked the whole government and caused a constitutional crises. Dole was the only one who was in a position to win the vote and so I had to support him."
This came after the decision by the Senate earlier in the day that made independent candidate George Voinovich the Vice-President Elect. This produces the unusual situation of a vice-president who had not run on the president's ticket. The conflict should be minimal however, as Voinovich was a Republican until his decision to run with Powell, and was considered a candidate to be the Republican's vice-president candidate before Buchanan gained the spot...
From the autobiography of Dick Morris-
So my campaign to win Powell the presidency was not successful. I took solace in the fact that it was the most successful run for an independent candidate ever. Of course, gaining the vice-presidency was an amusing turn of events.
The maneuvering in the House was very weird. Did Gibbons and Castle not know the rules? Did they hold out to extract some sort of political concessions? My favorite theory is that Gingrich organized their defection in an attempt to gain the acting-presidency for himself. We'll probably never know…
The End
(For Now?)
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The House's failure to select a president put more pressure on the Senate, which had been hoping to avoid voting on the vice-presidency until the House had decided the presidency. Gathering on Monday, they managed what the house did not, coming to a successful conclusion to their appointed responsibility on the first ballot.
By a 52 to 45 vote, with 3 Republicans abstaining, the Senate made George Voinovich Vice-President Elect. For the Republicans, he was their preferred candidate over Vice-President Gore. (Buchanan was ineligible because he was not in the top two for electoral votes for vice-president). The Democrats did not have the votes to appoint Gore, but they did have enough to boycott and prevent a quorum if they had wished. The prospect of President Gingrich (no matter how short lived his reign may be) may have caused them to bow to the inevitable.
The focus then shifted back to the House, and word came that Representative Gibbons would change his vote and support Dole. This give Dole the support of 25 state delegations, and the pressure aimed at Representative Michael Castle had to be getting very intense…
Jan. 9th -
News Article
Third Place's a Charm: Dole becomes President-Elect
Voinovich to be Vice-president
Senator Dole, who finished in third place in both the popular vote and the electoral vote, was selected by the House yesterday to be the next president. This success was made possible by the return of Representatives Gibbons and Castle to the Republican Party's wishes.
"We had no choice," Castle said. "If we hadn't selected a candidate, it could have gridlocked the whole government and caused a constitutional crises. Dole was the only one who was in a position to win the vote and so I had to support him."
This came after the decision by the Senate earlier in the day that made independent candidate George Voinovich the Vice-President Elect. This produces the unusual situation of a vice-president who had not run on the president's ticket. The conflict should be minimal however, as Voinovich was a Republican until his decision to run with Powell, and was considered a candidate to be the Republican's vice-president candidate before Buchanan gained the spot...
From the autobiography of Dick Morris-
So my campaign to win Powell the presidency was not successful. I took solace in the fact that it was the most successful run for an independent candidate ever. Of course, gaining the vice-presidency was an amusing turn of events.
The maneuvering in the House was very weird. Did Gibbons and Castle not know the rules? Did they hold out to extract some sort of political concessions? My favorite theory is that Gingrich organized their defection in an attempt to gain the acting-presidency for himself. We'll probably never know…
The End
(For Now?)
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
Jasen777
Donor
It was always meant to be a story about the '96 election, and what could happen if there was a truly credible 3-way presidential race. This was something Powell in '96 was perhaps uniquely positioned to provide if he had so wished.
That being said, I'll probably return to this later, especially if there is some interest for me doing so. For now though I want to work on a couple of other projects.
Oh, bravo! Very interesting, very good. There's a whole story that could be written in there about Michael Castle's agonies: tormented by the hometown press, by the Republican leadership, by Powell's offers (the State Department?), by conscience, and finally (as such things go) a late-night walk out to the Delaware River, where, staring into its murky waters and haunted by the voice of his late, bitter father, he finally flips a coin...
I gotta wonder, though, if there were a better choice than Gibbons for the other 'flip' Republican. I mean: Gibbons is Governor of Nevada at the moment, and he sucks. Surely there was someone better suited?
EDIT: Found a candidate. If one of the four Republican Iowa congressmen was defeated, then Jim Leach would be the swing vote. He was, by far, the most liberal Republican in all of Congress, and he would have voted for Powell -- so you get a split delegation.
I gotta wonder, though, if there were a better choice than Gibbons for the other 'flip' Republican. I mean: Gibbons is Governor of Nevada at the moment, and he sucks. Surely there was someone better suited?
EDIT: Found a candidate. If one of the four Republican Iowa congressmen was defeated, then Jim Leach would be the swing vote. He was, by far, the most liberal Republican in all of Congress, and he would have voted for Powell -- so you get a split delegation.
Jasen777
Donor
Sounds good
Well, I was going to go with the Gingrich conspiracy angle more, but then I mostly bailed on it when I learned more about the House rules. I figured as a freshmen representative he might be open to some persuasion by Gingrich. But perhaps at this point he's simply naive enough to buck the establishment - before it comes down on him in force.
I have the Iowa delegation at 4-1. The Republicans there won by "limited butterfly" proof standards. I did have the Democrats do better then in OTL, due to an increase turnout from independents who voted for Powell and then Democratic representatives, but it's only enough to change very close races. Realistically some of those races could have gone the other way, but I felt like I needed to stick to limited butterflies for the House, or else do a complete analyze of every race (which would just be to time prohibitive).
Leach does seem like a good candidate, if I do a re-write I'll use him.
Fearless Leader
Donor
Great TL! It'll be interesting to see how Dole's presidency turns out...
Will he become nothing more than a puppet for Gringrich's Republican controlled Congress? I wonder what kind of laws he'll enact. Will the War on Terror get a jumpstart that much earlier?
Will he become nothing more than a puppet for Gringrich's Republican controlled Congress? I wonder what kind of laws he'll enact. Will the War on Terror get a jumpstart that much earlier?
Jasen777
Donor
Well, I don't want to spoil myself. Especially since I haven't thought much about it yet.
Here's a question though. Dole will offer Powell the Secretary of State position. Should he take it? Politically, it's probably not the best move, but personally it may let him make a difference like he's wanted to.