From the autobiography of Dick Morris -
The President's opinion of me appeared to have dropped as a result of my failure to predict Powell's run as an independent (he hadn't declared, but everyone could now see it coming). Nevertheless, I was still a great asset for him… Dole had to focus on the Republican primaries; he was constantly absent from the Senate to be on the campaign trail. Powell was still undeclared. With some shrewd media buys and the free press available to an incumbent president, we were able to put out a positive image of the President, especially in what were expected to be crucial states... The political battle with Congress over the government shutdown also helped. We turned Gingrich into our whipping boy and used him to smear all Republicans with, even Dole who was trying to stay as far away as he could…
From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -
Clinton had clearly benefited from his showdown with Congress, and Dole was losing ground in the national polls as his Republican rivals attacked him. By late January, some analysts were even predicting that the Republican race was meaningless and that come November the election would be a two-man race between Clinton and Powell...
Aggregate Presidential Poll 01/31/96
Clinton: 35%
Powell: 30%
Dole: 26%
Undecided/Other: 9%
News Clippings -
Feb. 13rd
Dole Barely Survives Iowa
Strong Showings by Buchanan, Alexander
As expected, Bob Dole won the Iowa Caucus yesterday, gathering 24 percent of the vote. This is a disappointing showing for Dole however, as his air of inevitability has been critically punctured. Building on his win in the Alaskan Straw Poll, firebrand Patrick Buchanan came in second with 23 percent of the vote. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the strong third-place finish of Lamar Alexander who pulled in 21 percent of the vote. Steve Forbes and Phil Gramm finished in a practical dead heat for fourth with a disappointing 8% each. The Dole campaign must be concerned as the race now moves to notoriously underdog favoring New Hampshire…
Feb. 21st
Buchanan wins New Hampshire
Dole second, Alexander third
Pat Buchanan pulled off a surprise victory in the New Hampshire primary yesterday, winning 30% of the vote. Bob Dole barely hung on for second place over Lamar Alexander, 24% to 23%. With Steve Forbes positioned to win the Delaware primary in three days, one wonders what the future of the Dole campaign is…
Feb. 25th
Dole Wins Delaware
Dejected Forbes to Announce Withdraw
In a surprise victory that supporters hope will reinvigorate his campaign, Bob Dole won the Delaware primary with 34 percent of the vote to Steve Forbes' 28 percent. The Forbes campaign, which had counted on winning the state, is now expected to announce a withdraw from the race shortly.
Feb. 28th
Banner Day for Dole
Bob Dole swept the three primaries today: Arizona, South Dakota, and North Dakota. His campaign now believes they have rebuilt their air of inevitability that was lost in New Hampshire. This is likely premature however, as Pat Buchanan had strong second place showings in all 3 states. It now appears the Republican nomination has become a two-man race.
March 3rd
Buchanan Wins South Carolina
Just when things were starting to look up for Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan has handed him another setback by wining the South Carolina primary. Rhetoric had heated up between the two, and the state saw the hardest campaigning of the presidential season yet. Buchanan's narrow victory, 37 percent to 35 percent, likely means that the race will now become a protracted one. Republicans had hoped to avoid that, as President Clinton has been unopposed, and Colin Powell looms as well…
March 6th
Super Tuesday a Victory for Dole
Buchanan wins Georgia
Bob Dole won seven of the eight states up for grabs yesterday, with Pat Buchanan managing a win only in Georgia. This would seem to all but clinch the nomination for Dole…
From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -
The strong challenge from Buchanan had been unexpected. With Powell looming over the proceedings, it was thought by many in the Republican base that a true social conservative would be needed in the general election, in order to draw a clear distinction from the other two candidates. This seems to have been what fueled Buchanan's rise. It gave Dole no choice but to move further to the right during the Republican campaign. Dole still had the money and the support of the party bosses to win the longer than expected race. It was clear after Super Tuesday that Dole would win the nomination. It was also clear that Buchanan could keep on campaigning and win a state here or there, and perhaps critically wound Dole for the general election. This lead to the deal that saw Buchanan surprisingly drop out of the race two days after Super Tuesday, and not so surprisingly, later receive the Republican vice-presidential nomination. Rumors that Dole disliked Buchanan and hated being stuck with him would surface later in the campaign. These rumors were confirmed after the election....
Meanwhile Colin Powell had shrewdly announced his official candidacy shortly after Dole's defeat in New Hampshire, and had received a round of favorable coverage from the press…
Aggregate Presidential Poll 03/10/96
Powell: 35%
Clinton: 33%
Dole: 24%
Undecided/Other: 8%