Chance of ACW with an indepedant Texas (and California)

Now I know from experience that the ACW can be butterflied away if you arn't to careful when messing with the setup of North America. So basicly my question is this, would having an independant Texas, and perhaps California, completely erase the ACW, and if not, would the timetable change?
 
I would think that it might push the start of the start of the ACW back to the 1850s since the Compromise of 1850 would leave less possible slave states. Also, with new states being created in the OTL northwester US, the free states would eventually outnumber the slave states by far, making it possible in the long run for the southern states to be overwhelmed by a vote to end slavery in Congress.
 
It's hard to say. Without Texas and Cailifornia you don't need the Compromise of 1850 - yet - but it's a patchjob that satisified no one. For example most people in the non-slaveholding states could have cared less about slavery until the Fugitive Slave Act started trampling all over their States Rights.

But without Texas, there will only be one route for the transcontinental railroad - the north. The central route used in OTL and the southern route that led to the Gadsden Purchase just won't be available. This would lead to southern complaints that the plan unfairly favors the north. (Of course, they were perfectly fine with government funds being spent on the Gadsden Purchase.)

And there'll be no additional slaveholding states unless they attack Texas and/or expand into the Caribbean. I'd see greater southern interest in an expanded navy, while the rest of the country doesn't want to get dragged into foreign ventures.

Important questions are when the Whigs/Know Nothings/Republicans/whoever manage to put together an effective not-Democrat Party and when the rest of the Democratic Party gets tired of the southern branch of the party calling the shots.

In OTL, both those happened at about the same time and led to the south starting the ACW. With an independant Texas, that could happen about the same time it did in OTL, earlier, or later. And they might happen far enough apart there is no ACW.

Of course, an independant Texas is going to have a rocky road ahead of it. The southern USA/CSA and Mexico are both going to want it and both have significantly larger populations to draw upon if it comes to war.
 
I have doubts that there would have been an ACW if Texas remained independent. If Texas remains independent...

1) you most likely don't have a U.S./Mexican War, which means...

2) No new territory in the Southwest to be squabbled over by the North and the South, which means...

3) No Compromise of 1850, no Wilmot Proviso controversy, no new Fugitive Slave Act.

4) The Transcontinental Railroad goes on a Northern route, which means...

5) The Missouri Compromise Line probably remains the boundary between the free and slave states. No Kansas Nebraska Act, which means....

5) No Bleeding Kansas. No John Brown's Raid. Taken together, all this probably means

7) No Civil War.
 
I have doubts that there would have been an ACW if Texas remained independent. If Texas remains independent...

1) you most likely don't have a U.S./Mexican War, which means...

2) No new territory in the Southwest to be squabbled over by the North and the South, which means...

3) No Compromise of 1850, no Wilmot Proviso controversy, no new Fugitive Slave Act.

4) The Transcontinental Railroad goes on a Northern route, which means...

5) The Missouri Compromise Line probably remains the boundary between the free and slave states. No Kansas Nebraska Act, which means....

5) No Bleeding Kansas. No John Brown's Raid. Taken together, all this probably means

7) No Civil War.

Well, while the specific chain that happened OTL won't happen, there are other means to get a civil war over slavery.

P.S. Thank you Fiver for giviving me some things to think about.
 
If Texas doesn't join the US, then it goes bankrupt like in OTL and gets annexed by the UK.
California is going to be American colonized and independent as in OTL because they are running out of indios for cheap labor and Spain isn't paying the bills anymore.
So both are independent.
This eliminates the two arguements for a unitary US. So there is no intellectual cover for a civil war. Financial involving southern debts to northern creditors, and moral involving slavery, of course.
No fugitive slave act and the states rights arguement goes away.
So no opposition to secession and no civil war.
 
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