Well, for those not in the know, Chan Santa Cruz was the unofficial name (or at least I think it wasn't official) given to the Mayan state in existence throughout the Caste War of the Yucatan, which although largely unknown was perhaps one of the most vicious and cruel wars in post-Colonial American history, and it lasted from 1847 to 1933. Wikipedia has more information if you really want it. Anyways, the whole war started with resentment from the Mayans against the white Yucatecos who oppressed them and treated them like serfs at the best of times. The whites were always fearful of an uprising, but the status quo remained until Yucatan declared itself independent from Santa Anna's government. Around this time, the execution of three Maya leaders by the government, in an attempt to prevent a political coup, sparked the race war that nearly drove all the whites from the peninsula.
The PoD is very obvious in this case. In 1848, things were going extremely badly for the Yucatecos. Everything that could go wrong did, basically. The Maya, whose base of operations was the OTL state of Quintana Roo, had taken the whole of the Yucatan aside from the capital of Merida. Plantations and haciendas were being burned, and the Mayan army was swelling in numbers as they approached the city. Every other major city had already fallen, including Valladolid, and all the Yucatecos that weren't in Merida were fleeing there, and many of the ones already in the city were fleeing for Mexico or America. The Governor of Yucatan, Miguel Barbachano, tried to issue a decree of evacuation, but the city was in such bad shape he didn't have enough paper. In a moment of complete desperation, he offered his country's sovereignty to whichever country stopped the Mayan rebels.
Now, in OTL, the Mayans stopped just short of taking Merida. In one of the most curious incidents in the history of war, the Maya saw the arrival of flying ants, which signified that the harvest time had begun, and the army began to go back to their farms to harvest their corn. Now, this wasn't exactly a unanimous decision, and it stands to reason that the two generals of the army, Cecilio Chi and Jacinto Pat, could have rallied the army to stay long enough to take Merida and end the Republic of Yucatan then and there.
Now, what I'm asking is, what are the likely effects of a Mayan state being established that took up the whole of the state of Yucatan (OTL Yucatan, Campeche, and Quintana Roo)? In my view, it stands to reason that the Mexican government, having been beaten by the Americans, wouldn't trouble to take a Mayan Yucatan in its prime. The Americans are not likely to attempt a take-over themselves. In fact a contingent of US Marines did attempt to help the Yucatecos, but half an hour into their first skirmish with Mayans, the Yucatec soldiers were busy dragging away the bodies of dead and dying Americans in an embarrassing defeat for the USMC. Unlike the Yucatecos and the Mayans, the Americans fought in line formation and attempted bayonet charges, which were not effective against Mayan guerrilla tactics and stone barricades.
The Mayans weren't exactly without allies either, they received much British help, especially in arms, traded through British Honduras. So, how different would the world be if the Mayans had managed to carve out their own republic in the Yucatan?
The PoD is very obvious in this case. In 1848, things were going extremely badly for the Yucatecos. Everything that could go wrong did, basically. The Maya, whose base of operations was the OTL state of Quintana Roo, had taken the whole of the Yucatan aside from the capital of Merida. Plantations and haciendas were being burned, and the Mayan army was swelling in numbers as they approached the city. Every other major city had already fallen, including Valladolid, and all the Yucatecos that weren't in Merida were fleeing there, and many of the ones already in the city were fleeing for Mexico or America. The Governor of Yucatan, Miguel Barbachano, tried to issue a decree of evacuation, but the city was in such bad shape he didn't have enough paper. In a moment of complete desperation, he offered his country's sovereignty to whichever country stopped the Mayan rebels.
Now, in OTL, the Mayans stopped just short of taking Merida. In one of the most curious incidents in the history of war, the Maya saw the arrival of flying ants, which signified that the harvest time had begun, and the army began to go back to their farms to harvest their corn. Now, this wasn't exactly a unanimous decision, and it stands to reason that the two generals of the army, Cecilio Chi and Jacinto Pat, could have rallied the army to stay long enough to take Merida and end the Republic of Yucatan then and there.
Now, what I'm asking is, what are the likely effects of a Mayan state being established that took up the whole of the state of Yucatan (OTL Yucatan, Campeche, and Quintana Roo)? In my view, it stands to reason that the Mexican government, having been beaten by the Americans, wouldn't trouble to take a Mayan Yucatan in its prime. The Americans are not likely to attempt a take-over themselves. In fact a contingent of US Marines did attempt to help the Yucatecos, but half an hour into their first skirmish with Mayans, the Yucatec soldiers were busy dragging away the bodies of dead and dying Americans in an embarrassing defeat for the USMC. Unlike the Yucatecos and the Mayans, the Americans fought in line formation and attempted bayonet charges, which were not effective against Mayan guerrilla tactics and stone barricades.
The Mayans weren't exactly without allies either, they received much British help, especially in arms, traded through British Honduras. So, how different would the world be if the Mayans had managed to carve out their own republic in the Yucatan?