Chan Santa Cruz Victorious

Well, for those not in the know, Chan Santa Cruz was the unofficial name (or at least I think it wasn't official) given to the Mayan state in existence throughout the Caste War of the Yucatan, which although largely unknown was perhaps one of the most vicious and cruel wars in post-Colonial American history, and it lasted from 1847 to 1933. Wikipedia has more information if you really want it. Anyways, the whole war started with resentment from the Mayans against the white Yucatecos who oppressed them and treated them like serfs at the best of times. The whites were always fearful of an uprising, but the status quo remained until Yucatan declared itself independent from Santa Anna's government. Around this time, the execution of three Maya leaders by the government, in an attempt to prevent a political coup, sparked the race war that nearly drove all the whites from the peninsula.

The PoD is very obvious in this case. In 1848, things were going extremely badly for the Yucatecos. Everything that could go wrong did, basically. The Maya, whose base of operations was the OTL state of Quintana Roo, had taken the whole of the Yucatan aside from the capital of Merida. Plantations and haciendas were being burned, and the Mayan army was swelling in numbers as they approached the city. Every other major city had already fallen, including Valladolid, and all the Yucatecos that weren't in Merida were fleeing there, and many of the ones already in the city were fleeing for Mexico or America. The Governor of Yucatan, Miguel Barbachano, tried to issue a decree of evacuation, but the city was in such bad shape he didn't have enough paper. In a moment of complete desperation, he offered his country's sovereignty to whichever country stopped the Mayan rebels.

Now, in OTL, the Mayans stopped just short of taking Merida. In one of the most curious incidents in the history of war, the Maya saw the arrival of flying ants, which signified that the harvest time had begun, and the army began to go back to their farms to harvest their corn. Now, this wasn't exactly a unanimous decision, and it stands to reason that the two generals of the army, Cecilio Chi and Jacinto Pat, could have rallied the army to stay long enough to take Merida and end the Republic of Yucatan then and there.

Now, what I'm asking is, what are the likely effects of a Mayan state being established that took up the whole of the state of Yucatan (OTL Yucatan, Campeche, and Quintana Roo)? In my view, it stands to reason that the Mexican government, having been beaten by the Americans, wouldn't trouble to take a Mayan Yucatan in its prime. The Americans are not likely to attempt a take-over themselves. In fact a contingent of US Marines did attempt to help the Yucatecos, but half an hour into their first skirmish with Mayans, the Yucatec soldiers were busy dragging away the bodies of dead and dying Americans in an embarrassing defeat for the USMC. Unlike the Yucatecos and the Mayans, the Americans fought in line formation and attempted bayonet charges, which were not effective against Mayan guerrilla tactics and stone barricades.

The Mayans weren't exactly without allies either, they received much British help, especially in arms, traded through British Honduras. So, how different would the world be if the Mayans had managed to carve out their own republic in the Yucatan?
 
Well, for those not in the know, Chan Santa Cruz was the unofficial name (or at least I think it wasn't official) given to the Mayan state in existence throughout the Caste War of the Yucatan, which although largely unknown was perhaps one of the most vicious and cruel wars in post-Colonial American history, and it lasted from 1847 to 1933....

Now, what I'm asking is, what are the likely effects of a Mayan state being established that took up the whole of the state of Yucatan (OTL Yucatan, Campeche, and Quintana Roo)? In my view, it stands to reason that the Mexican government, having been beaten by the Americans, wouldn't trouble to take a Mayan Yucatan in its prime. The Americans are not likely to attempt a take-over themselves. In fact a contingent of US Marines did attempt to help the Yucatecos, but half an hour into their first skirmish with Mayans, the Yucatec soldiers were busy dragging away the bodies of dead and dying Americans in an embarrassing defeat for the USMC. Unlike the Yucatecos and the Mayans, the Americans fought in line formation and attempted bayonet charges, which were not effective against Mayan guerrilla tactics and stone barricades.

The Mayans weren't exactly without allies either, they received much British help, especially in arms, traded through British Honduras. So, how different would the world be if the Mayans had managed to carve out their own republic in the Yucatan?

Don't give up yet...I think you make a pretty good case for the state's survival. It seems likely to me that if the state can last until Mexico's Conservative-Liberal War, it has a good chance of making it to the present time. Perhaps as you point out as a British protectorate, perhaps like the Kingdom of Miskitia.

I'd expect you might see Spain trying to intervene and retake it, as it did IOTL with Santo Domingo. Perhaps Napoleon III makes an effort also, though Mexico is certainly a far bigger prize. Both of those efforts might see CSC using the British to counter outside invaders. Otherwise I don't see how the state could avoid US intervention at some point between the ACW and WWII.

Some interesting possible effects, it seems to me, would be the influence on the future Mexican Revolution. Indigenous leaders like Zapata may see the state as a model. Perhaps Sandino of Nicaragua does also. And CSC during the Cold War would be interesting to imagine.
 
I don't like their odds. Continued British support ensures continued US enmity, while an end to British support invites Mexican, US and even French and Spanish expansionism. That's not to say that they're goners - Haiti is still an independent country.
 
I don't like their odds. Continued British support ensures continued US enmity, while an end to British support invites Mexican, US and even French and Spanish expansionism. That's not to say that they're goners - Haiti is still an independent country.
The problem with this assumption is that, with British support, they soundly beat the Yucatecos, the Mexicans, and even Americans. Not sure how much better the Spanish could possibly do. Chan Santa Cruz only started losing after a group of Mayans attacked the Brits in Belize, and ended all British support. Even then, they lasted a long time. The Mexicans are not going to bother, considering their intervention OTL was caused by an invitation from a surviving Yucatecan government, which meant former Yucatan troops would support them and made consolidating ground much easier. This would not be the case.

Sidenote: Good point about Haiti, their existence pissed a lot of people off, and they had little support but they survived. Not sure how powerful or stable Chan Santa Cruz (Maybe I should call it Uaan, after the Mayan state CSC sprang from?) will be following the Caste War. What I can be sure of is that the existence of the Cult of the Talking Cross would be butterflied away, as it came into existence in 1850, after the Siege of Merida. The government would still likely be organized along OTL levels, but I'm not sure who'd hold the most power. Either way, I'm sure the capital would be Merida, renamed Ichcanzihoo, or T'ho (Tiho) for short.
 
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The problem with this assumption is that, with British support, they soundly beat the Yucatecos, the Mexicans, and even Americans. Not sure how much better the Spanish could possibly do.

I think that the passing of preeminence in Central America from Britain to the United States by the end of the century is very likely.

The Mexicans are not going to bother, considering their intervention OTL was caused by an invitation from a surviving Yucatecan government, which meant former Yucatan troops would support them and made consolidating ground much easier. This would not be the case.
The white Yucatecan elite will prefer white Mexican rule to native Yucatecan rule any day of the week. Besides, it's not like Mexico needs a pretext - they'd want the territory back and they'd fear the example that Chan Santa Cruz set for Indians in Mexico.
 
We can expect intervention from the Mexicans at some point, possibly even a US fillibustering expedition if Mr. Walker turns his greedy eyes towards the Yucatan :D

On the other hand, Yucatan isn't a particularly wealthy bit of land, it's full of hostile natives who have a proven military capability, and any intervention by a foreign power is going to incur the wrath of Mexico.

Indeed, I'd suggest that there's not much chance of any country trying to take over Yucatan other than Mexico. The British will have a residual interest, but the course of the 19th century saw a reduction of British commitment to Central American affairs (letting Miskito be annexed by Nicaragua, for example).

The question, for me, is whether Mexico can strengthen herself enough to retake the Yucatan, and if the Maya can hold them off. If they do, we have a fascinating example of a wholly Native American state, ruled by and for Native Americans, which would shine like a beacon to other Native American of African groups fighting European settlers. Hell, they might even give/recieve aid to/from Haiti, as Venezuela did in real life.

Political developments would be a matter of wild speculation. I can envisage some sort of provisional military dictatorship initially, much like those of neighbouring Latin American nations. The question is whether or not this would be permanent. What would the state religion be? Would there be a parliament? All interesting questions :D
 
Political developments would be a matter of wild speculation. I can envisage some sort of provisional military dictatorship initially, much like those of neighbouring Latin American nations. The question is whether or not this would be permanent. What would the state religion be? Would there be a parliament? All interesting questions :D
Provisional military dictatorship would be the mostly likely possibility at first, as the two main generals had pretty much all the power, especially considering they were two of the three people who planned the rebellion in the first place, and the third guy's death was what sparked the war. The government would probably end up much like it did OTL, based on native Mayan systems, although the Cult of the Talking Cross wouldn't exist. The state religion would definitely be the Mayan form of Catholicism. As for a Parliament, not sure how likely that is. They'll probably base themselves off the Mexican and American model, considering they already had a president.

Another question that springs to mind would be how many, if any, immigrants would go to Yucatan. There are a lot of opportunities there, to be sure, but the Mayan hostility to whites would probably be quite famous by this point. After all, I heard that by the 1850's in the war they were actually enslaving captured white people, in retribution for the enslavement of the Mayans going on at the same time. Before that, both sides would simply kill everybody of the other side.

The reason I keep doubting the Mexicans would attack, at least successfully, is because with most of the Yucatecans gone, how many of the Mexican troops would have experience in guerrilla warfare? By the time the Mexicans recover from the war with America and all that, they got bigger problems than Mayans running the Yucatan.
 
I've read that the Yucatan is more similar to the Caribbean states than the rest of Mexico. Simply because it is basically an island. The jungle for most of its history has formed an impenetrable barrier. So that sea travel across the gulf was always faster.

Comparing it to Haiti might be a good idea, in fact the two might form an alliance. Like Haiti it could be vulnerable to assault from the sea.

If it is tied to the British they might make it a protectorate. Or attempt an outright annexation if they are feeling expansionist.

It would also like Haiti lead to a major shift in the mindset of Latin America. Now the Natives have proven to be able to have their own nation other states might take measures.
 
Hmm, about the natives being more confident, would this help Benito Juarez in Mexico garner more support, or would it hinder him what with the elite being more paranoid about native uprisings?
 
Hresvelgr said:
Another question that springs to mind would be how many, if any, immigrants would go to Yucatan. There are a lot of opportunities there, to be sure, but the Mayan hostility to whites would probably be quite famous by this point. After all, I heard that by the 1850's in the war they were actually enslaving captured white people, in retribution for the enslavement of the Mayans going on at the same time. Before that, both sides would simply kill everybody of the other side.

The reason I keep doubting the Mexicans would attack, at least successfully, is because with most of the Yucatecans gone, how many of the Mexican troops would have experience in guerrilla warfare? By the time the Mexicans recover from the war with America and all that, they got bigger problems than Mayans running the Yucatan.

Well, I doubt there will be many white immigrants. What one might get, however, are Mayan immigrants from Guatemala whose own government will persecute them in response to the events in Yucatan. They'll probably be quickly drafted to bolster the Yucatan army, freeing up manpower for use elsewhere. I doubt that the Yucatecos will come back, even if granted an amnesty: more likely, they'll become permanent exiles in Mexico.

As concerns Mexican revanchism, it does indeed hinge on whether or not Mexico can maintain enough internal cohesion to field a decent army. I reckon it will happen at some point. Mexico's small navy will be able to make life difficult for Mayan sailors, and might even be able to affect limited amphibious assaults. The Mexicans will have no shortage of angry Yucatec exiles to recruit. What will go against Mexico is the terrain and the Mayan style of fighting. The Maya will also be able to get supplies overland from Belize as they did in real life. I'd wager that one

All in all, I'd say that the odds of survival for Mayan Yucatan are actually pretty good. If the leaders of the rebellion can institute a reasonably successful government and modern army, there is little in the way to stop them.
 
Hmm, about the natives being more confident, would this help Benito Juarez in Mexico garner more support, or would it hinder him what with the elite being more paranoid about native uprisings?

Likely, it would scare the bejesus out of the Mexican creole elite. The number of natives massively, massively outnumbers the descendents of the Spanish rulers. You would see one of two reactions: either hardened attitudes towards the natives, and forced assimilation policies or b) appeasement of the natives with greater autonomy, linguistic rights and recognition of communal native property. Nothing in Mexico's history makes me think that the creole would give the natives anything.

Persecution of indigenous communities would intensify, and might lead to non-Mayan Amerindian refugees fleeing to, and being welcomed by, Mayan Yucatan. Benito Juarez wouldn't get anywhere near power. Hell, he might run away to Yucatan, and rise within the Mayan government, bringing liberal ideology to the new Mayan state.
 
Could independent Yucatan end out beneficial for Mexico in the longterm. Would increased native power mean the elite forced to come to terms, and create a truly democratic nation?
 
Could independent Yucatan end out beneficial for Mexico in the longterm. Would increased native power mean the elite forced to come to terms, and create a truly democratic nation?

Negatives: loss of a strategic portal on the Caribbean, MAJOR loss of prestige, disruption of trade, potential restiveness on the part of other indigenous communities within Mexico (and, indeed, Guatemala)

Positives: no longer having to defend a poor, scarcely resourced province, no border with a potentially grumpy UK, loss of the Yucatecos as a disruptive force against centralisation and modernisation, acquisition of a stable border with a small, weak country without territorial ambitions (if Yucatan is recognised.)

Overall though, I don't think it'll make much difference to the way Mexico is governed. Expect Santa Anna to continue buggering up in much the way he did in OTL, with the same old caudillo politics in his wake. The only major difference is that the idea of a small, paranoid creole class governing a mass of potentially rebellious natives will become ingrained in the national consciousness, and lead to worse treatment of Mexico's indigenous communities than in even OTL. Speaking Zapotec or Nahuatl will no longer be considered quaint and backwards, but will be a sign of subversion and potential rebellion.

Expect Mexican identity to become much more bound up with white/mestizo Spanish speakers, with forcible assimilation policies for natives if the Mexican government can afford it.
 
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