Interesting idea, though there's a couple of things which struck me. For one, even with a debilitating civil war I can't see the English colonies going renegade. They've only existed one generation at this point and didn't have the strength of trade to survive prolongued separation from the motherland. If they went rogue then they'd simply be starved to death, or possibly overrun by the natives, sensing an opportunity.
This is kind of what I'm counting on. I think the colonies, by 1648 (the earliest allowable PoD), would be capable of providing for themselves, but they'll need trade to stimulate their economy. Trade with England will be difficult, with the civil wars consuming all of England's attention. Sweden will be an obvious choice, since New Sweden's ports are so close; but Sweden will take steps to ensure that its own interests are served.
This will probably also make the English colonists more keen on maintaining good relations with the Native Americans.
Consequently, I think they'd all ne brought back on board as soon as England had itself a strong and uncontested government - and possibly sooner.
There are many ways around this. Many of the English colonists are persecuted political outgroups in England, and will be hesitant to return to the fold after having achieved self-determination. We could increase the likelihood of this by having the Royalists eventually win the English Civil Wars. Because the bulk of English colonists had Parliamentarian sentiments, they would have a motive to resist re-assimilation.
[/quote]Falastur said:The other thing is that I'm struggling to see how Sweden will continue to fight off France when it becomes their main target for colonial expansion. I can't see it being able to foster as strong a navy, and it would require a quite simply incredible diplomatic effort to charm the natives onside in enough numbers to ward off the French, especially since the French themselves would likely be looking to exploit any gap left by the departing English.
Here's is a major wrench in my plan. New Sweden will have the manpower advantage on the ground, with the English colonists siding with them. We'd just have to find a way to keep the French Navy out of the way.
Perhaps we could make an ATL version of the Triple Alliance that could stand up to the French Navy. Obviously they couldn't take on the French Army, though. But, France will also inevitably have enemies in the Habsburgs and the HRE, and the French Army could easily get bogged down in endless campaigns on the continent, leaving the Triple Alliance nations free to concentrate on taking out the French Navy.