Challenge: Ukrainian "Russia"

Since the POD is after the Mongol conquest of Kievan Rus, I would still argue that a Galicia-wank is the most plausible scenario to achieve all of these four points.
 

Old Airman

Banned
Poland-Lithuania does better in the 17th century and successfully transforms into the Polish-Lithuanian-Ruthenian Commonwealth, with the third component centered on Kiev. Over time large parts of Russia are added to the Ruthenian part. As nationalism develops, the Slavic parts of Lithuania leave it and also join Kiev which is becoming the Commonwealth's true center of gravity, having also incorporated Siberia by this point.
Sounds good, but I'd exclude Poland from the equation, just for the good measure. Jagellons didn't happen on the Polish throne, that's it. Lithuania proper goes firmly Orthodox (as far as I remember, Vitautas did accept Orthodox baptism once or twice) and Grand Duchy (it would be Great Princedom, "knyaz" is a "prince" in English) manages it's affairs itself. Great "Old Brotherly Quarrel" between Great Princedom and Muskovy ends with Moscow's loss (it IS possible, esp. if there's more mayhem in the Great Steppe, Moscow had been shielded by Horde's horsemen for some time), spreading over OTL European Russia, Belarus, Lithuania and Northern Ukraine (north of Kiev) by 1550. Eventually, they have enough resources to firmly establish themselves in Kiev and proclaim it the Princedom's capital (they don't really need it that much, economic value of the city is zero without Dnepr trade, but the sentimental value is here). Then, the history more or less repeat itself with endless wars between Roman Catholic Slavs (aka Poles) and Orthodox Slavs, a war which will eventually be won by Easterlings (they're more numerous and not that much less civilized). Brest replaces Smolensk as a border town, that's it :)

Even today a Russophone can watch Ukrainian TV and understand 80% of conversation. On a flip side, Khmelnitsky did bring "translators" to converse with Russian delegation in 1654 (although there's a quite humorous description of this "translation", when both sides fully understood each other but kept the diplomatic protocol). In fact, there's what's called "a dialect field" between Moscow and Kiev, with local dialects being farther and farther from literary Russians and closer and closer to modern Ukrainian as you go South and West. It continues within the Ukraine proper, with Lviv's dialect being quite distinct from Kievan.

Since the POD is after the Mongol conquest of Kievan Rus, I would still argue that a Galicia-wank is the most plausible scenario to achieve all of these four points.
They don't have manpower and resources, they're too vulnerable from North and West, making them natural prey of either Poles or Hungarians.

Unlikely, at least as far as Crimea is concerned. OTL Russia (which was as big as TTL "Ruthenia") barely managed to conquer and hold (Minikh could conquer, but had to return home) Crimea 100 years later, for more reasons that I could care to list. Besides, Khmelnitsky's Ukraine is small and internally weak comparing with Russia at this point. And there's no Rurikid, Gediminid or Chingizid in sight to claim Romanov's throne with at least some degree of hope for a success.
 
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Old Airman

Banned
Hence a wank is needed. Forming dynastic alliance with Lithuania or even Poland would be a good starting point.
As far as I remember, they did form a dynastic alliance with Lithuania. It didn't help. And, as far as Poles are concerned, any dream of Poles being in the same state with Orthodox Slavs and not trying to dominate them is ASB after Poland's conversion... Galicia an alliance with Poland would be well and truly Polonized long before they're wanked enough to lay a claim on Moscow...
 
As far as I remember, they did form a dynastic alliance with Lithuania. It didn't help. And, as far as Poles are concerned, any dream of Poles being in the same state with Orthodox Slavs and not trying to dominate them is ASB after Poland's conversion... Galicia an alliance with Poland would be well and truly Polonized long before they're wanked enough to lay a claim on Moscow...

It didn't helped because the last Rurik King of Galicia had no male successor and the crown was handed to a Pole after his death. I think the POD after 1300 is too late to save Galicia anyway. What I had in my mind was a longer reign of Vaišvilkas of Lithuania, a christian (Greek Orthodox) Prince of Lithuania who abdicated in 1267. No Polonization is necessary since this is not an union but a political alliance.
 
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