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In a discussion rather unrelated to civil war, I came across a post talking about how Taiwan turning into another Lebanon thanks to social tensions between the 70% who are speakers of Hokkien (also called Taiwanese or Minnanese), and the 30% who don't. So, because I found this rather unlikely, I present the challenge to the Post-1900 forum. With a POD following 1949, how can a civil war occur in Taiwan that turns the island into something like Lebanon?

Of course, I don't think the poster was suggesting that Taiwan would see fighting between religious groups, but was suggesting linguistic lines etc. So, for the sake of argument, how can we get something like a divided Taiwan? The Lebanese Civil War had three major sides. The only way I could see this here would be speakers of Hokkien versus speakers of Hakka versus speakers of Mandarin (presumably the Nationalists and their allies for this one). An additional challenge would be partitioning Taipei in the same way Beirut was divided. Maybe instead of the Green Line, the Blue Line, dividing the Mandarin-speaking neighborhoods from the Hakka/Hokkien areas. If somebody could get a foreign occupation by a foreign power (presumably the United States, because a Communist invasion of Taiwan is going to end badly on a global scale), that works too. Lastly, the challenge would getting a long civil war, something close to the 15 years that the Lebanese Civil War lasted.

In my opinion, this sort of civil war isn't very plausible, but for the sake of imagination, how would it look and how would it come about?
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