Wouldn't they be more likely to go for Iceland, Greenland, and Canada?
Historically they went after Delaware, which is in the North East, but if they have their act together early they could go after Canada. Iceland would come with Denmark if it is invaded and conquered, as would Greenland. These are not really good settler colonies, nor are they particularly profitable.
Also, much of what could be gained from Canada, furs namely, could already be had very close by in Finland and Karelia. If anything Sweden is going to be looking for prime farmland, which probably won't be in New England exactly, but in the North East and further south. Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and the like will be prime targets, but I'm not sure if the Swedes could really put their population into colonization efforts at the time, unless there is something really attracting people, which will leave the home front weaker in terms of military manpower available and for colonization of European territories.
Actually, Sweden really doesn't need settler colonies in the US, as they have lots to settle in Europe. By the time that pressure starts to build and there is a need for colonies, the 1800's, the US is already controlled by other powers.
Iceland was an itegral part of Denmark-Norway.
Who in their right mind tries to settle Greenland?
Canada, New England or further south (Delaware) is where Sweden would colonize, but it wouldn't pay off, would it? Isn't the Caribbean a better place for investments at this time, anyways?
Also, Sweden could never, ever, overtake France or a unified Germany as a continental power. To few people...
It is unlikely in the extreme that Sweden by itself would ever really colonize North America, as there was really no need and colonists were needed closer to home in the Baltic. The Caribbean would be the best place to grab and turn into sugar plantations with slaves, which they did with one tiny island historically. Trading posts in Africa would probably emerge as would some in Asia, as happened historically, though these wouldn't really count as colonies.
Sweden, if it redefines what Sweden is by building an empire of conquered European states, could rival either of those powers, mostly by dominating parts of Germany politically after TTL's version of the 30 years war and by toppling the Habsburgs or getting them to sign a favorable peace deal. A Protestant Germany under Swedish influence with the entirety of the land surrounding the Baltic Sea officially Swedish and the Sound Toll abolished could see Sweden building up a populous and wealthy empire, but this would require a lot to go right and eventually things would fall apart to a degree. The Germans states would become more powerful than Sweden and would resent Swedish political control; as a unit the German protestants would be more powerful.
The best bet is to control territories in Germany and settle the Americas with Germans, but keep the administration Swedish, so when there are excess Swedes they can then migrate to an established Swedish colony, which has been established by pioneering Swedes and Germans. This would work best if it was a private effort working with the Protestant German states, with recruitment of civilians with promises of profits in the new world, with the private venture then later being nationalized by the Swedish Crown.
Of course to get this to work it would require my POD, which violates the OP.
