Challenge: Staying East of Suez

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to maintain a British military presence in Cyprus, Egypt, the Palestine Mandate (whichever side of the Jordan suits you), the Persian Gulf, Aden, East Africa, Sri Lanka, Singapore, and Hong Kong by the present day with a POD after the Potsdam Conference.
 
I think you'd need to prevent Harold "Lavender" Wilson and Ted "hand over Gibraltar to Franco" Heath from becoming the leaders of their respective leaders for one thing.
 
Couldn't be easier.

The RN decides in the late 40s that its future naval strategy against the Soviet submarine threat lies with deterrence and attack on bases with aircraft carriers and amphibious ships instead of defence with anti-submarine escorts. As such it directs its resources into these areas for the next decade, giving the RN a powerful carrier fleet and amphibious capability at high readiness.

1956 a British fleet complete with 4 carriers and an amphibious force of 5 Marine Commandos and a tank regiment sails within a week of Nassers nationalisation of the canal. Within a month Nascar is toppled and the new Egyptian govt joins the British-orchestrated Baghdad Pact. British prestige is sky high and as a result of its leadership its economy soars as allies clamour for all things British.

The rest writes itself.
 
China has its falling out with Russia in the early 60s and strikes an unlikely deal with the British, justifying it on the basis that the British are sort of socialist at the time with their welfare state and nationalised industries. China makes large purchases of British arms throughout the 60s, boosting the British economy, indeed it is the big Chinese appetite for British arms that help perk along the British economy in the 60s. Hidden somewhere in the decade long cooperation was a quiet deal to extend Britain's lease on Hong Kong for another 25 years, ending in 2012. After border skirmises in 1969 in which the Chinese do well with their powerful British arms the Soviets patch up their relationship with China.
 
Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to maintain a British military presence in Cyprus, Egypt, the Palestine Mandate (whichever side of the Jordan suits you), the Persian Gulf, Aden, East Africa, Sri Lanka, Singapore, and Hong Kong by the present day with a POD after the Potsdam Conference.

I think the key should be a massive economic boom after Second World War, justifying the continuation of Imperial Glory at least in some form. Now, how to achieve this is something completely different. Riain's comment on RN's strategic direction is perfectly on target. One might add abandoning RAF because of missiles and reshaping the Army for intervention role.
 
It wasn't Hong Kong that was supposed to be returned, it was the New Territories. The problem was that so much had been built and so many had settled down there that it had become impractical to separate them from the rest of the colony by the time Sino-British negotiations began. To avoid the return of Hong Kong you need to deal with the New Territories, and there are 3 easy ways to do it:

(1) Have the Chinese occupy the New Territories before 1956. Hong Kong can take the loss.

(2) Have the Nationalists win the Chinese Civil War and negotiate an early return of the New Territories, similar to the French return of Kwangchow in 1946.

(3) Have the Nationalists win and negotiate an extension of the lease.

Whatever you do, do it before the Suez War, 'cause after that there's no way the Brits are coming back to Egypt.
 
Couldn't be easier.

The RN decides in the late 40s that its future naval strategy against the Soviet submarine threat lies with deterrence and attack on bases with aircraft carriers and amphibious ships instead of defence with anti-submarine escorts. As such it directs its resources into these areas for the next decade, giving the RN a powerful carrier fleet and amphibious capability at high readiness.

1956 a British fleet complete with 4 carriers and an amphibious force of 5 Marine Commandos and a tank regiment sails within a week of Nassers nationalisation of the canal. Within a month Nascar is toppled and the new Egyptian govt joins the British-orchestrated Baghdad Pact. British prestige is sky high and as a result of its leadership its economy soars as allies clamour for all things British.

The rest writes itself.

Yes, the Chinese are so intimidated by Britain in the Suez Crisis that they give up on their claims to Hong Kong. Also, they would have been a little too busy fighting Zionist terrorists in the continuing Palestine Mandate to think about invading Egypt.
 
What all of them?
Honkers is going to be a bit of a bugger isn’t it?
Not too hard. Back in the early 1900s there was an offer floated to the Chinese government for the British to give up their colony of Weihai in return for their ceding the New Territories in perpetuity like Hong Kong island itself. It wasn't taken up but all it would really require was for the British to decide it was worth it to apply enough pressure or to bribe the right people for it to be accepted and you've got the British owning Hong Kong forever.

If you don't mind changing the challenge slightly when the Rajah of Sarawak Charles Vyner Brooke ceded the Kingdom of Sarawak to the UK in 1946 it became a crown colony, and in 1963 became part of Malaysia with Malaya, Sabah, and Singapore. You could have the British government insist on some sort of enlarged Sovereign Base Areas like they did in Cyprus but which includes a port in return for allowing the country to go. Or they just keep Sabah as a colony and allow the rest of them to form Malaya as IIRC Sabah wasn't all that keen on joining Malaysia to begin with but I digress.
 
Yes, the Chinese are so intimidated by Britain in the Suez Crisis that they give up on their claims to Hong Kong. Also, they would have been a little too busy fighting Zionist terrorists in the continuing Palestine Mandate to think about invading Egypt.

No, as part of the cosy little deal throughout the 60s in the wake of the Soviet falling-out China quietly extends the lease. Perhaps it could be part of the logistics support package for British armaments that the Chinese are buying during that decade.

As for the Zionist terrorists, that all happens as normal, the early PoD is RN focus so the power projection is available on the day the canal is nationalised by Nascar. The result is that Britain can strike while the iron is hot, and then in the afterglow of victory stich up a leading role in a successful CENTO.
 
The Holocaust is less severe (no outright extermination plan). Only 2 million Jews are killed, while another 4 million are found starved and diseased in the concentration camps of Eastern and Central Europe. This larger Jewish refugee problem makes the Labour party more willing to fulfil its election promise of creating a Jewish national home in Palestine. By 1949 Israel have four million Jewish inhabitants (instead of 1.5) and have just been awarded Dominion status. Most of the Arab population have been "resettled" in Jordan, Iraq and Egypt after the so-called Second Arab Revolt and the harsh response it met from the Jewish Agency (no permanent refugee camps, thus).

With no Middle East war and a stronger Imperial presence in the region the Egyptian revolution and the Suez crisis is butterflied away. Egypt thus remains garrisoned by British troops, while Cyprus is given home-rule and is garrisoned by the Israelis who views it as a necessary supply point. For similar reasons Aden and the various Emirates (Kuwait et al) remains puppets. The corrupt sheiks, fearing the kind of Revolution that followed in Iraq following the British leaving, are as complacent to the British as OTL sheiks are to the US. The Hashemites in Jordan reacts similarly to the fall of their brethren in the East, and decides to bury their battle-ax with the new Israeli state. As the oil fields of the region are developed (and put into a pipeline system ending in Haifa) the British presence becomes of such importance to the supply of the Western powers that the US accepts this setup. The (not as) powerful AIPAC lobby becomes an important factor in this. With greater stability, less hostility, less socialism and Israeli capital available the region develops relatively quickly and by today the Levant is about as developed as Turkey (Arab GDP 18 000 dollar/per capita, Israeli 38 000).

With colonialism generally having more prestige the British decides to keep Singapore, Zanzibar as well as military control of the Palk Strait islands in Sri Lanka for their strategic value. Hong Kong is just never given back. Turkish sabre-rattling over Cyprus shores up native support for a continued British presence.

(There is just no reason why they would hang on to East Africa or main-land Sri Lanka.)
 
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The Holocaust is much less severe, and millions of Jews post-war in Europe want out of Europe, angry at the Holocaust and Stalin's treatment of them. Thus, nearly four million Jews have soon moved to Palestine, which becomes the state of Israel in 1948 after a second Arab revolt. The Israelis destroy the Arab armies which try to take back Israel, but the Israelis wisely decide to bury the hatchet with them while they can. Many Palestinians are allowed to stay, but with the large number of new Jewish arrivals, Jewish Israelis outnumber Arab ones at least 2-1. Others who choose to settle in Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan get some money out of it, if they choose to accept it. Most do.

The Royal Navy after WWII develops its carrier and amphibious forces, thinking that these rapid-reaction forces will allow them to maintain an effective deterrent in the decades to come. As part of this, Eagle, Ark Royal, Victorious, Implacable and Leviathan are built or rebuilt in such a way that they can be used a high-powered fleet carriers. Battleship Vanguard stays in the fleet for a few years to provide amphibious support, and spends far more time on active duty than in OTL. The Royal Navy still goes through extensive cutbacks, but the cuts trim the fleet down to a modern, fast-moving and powerful force.

Nasser still makes his play for the Suez Canal, only Nasser makes the mistake of naming the US among the enemies of the Arab world. This leads to Eisenhower not having the least bit of issue with the British-French-Israeli action to take back the Suez Canal. The Israelis take over parts of the Sinai, though areas which are heavily populated by Arabs are generally ignored just to keep problems to a minimum. The British decide to remove Nasser from the equation and have little trouble doing so, particularly after the Egyptian Air Force is wiped out by British carrier aircraft and the Israelis. Landings are made with the support of gunfire from Vanguard and her French counterpart, Jean Bart. The mission is successful, but the British decide putting a puppet in Cairo is a bad idea and leave the Egyptians to their own devices. They did get the message, however. The Suez is never battled over again.

Fearing both the Shah of Iran and the Saudi Royal Family, several of the smaller protectorates in the Middle East ask for protection from the British and the Americans, offering to ensure oil supplies in return. This passes with little difficulty. Arab nationalism still blossoms, but it turns harder towards Moscow, just making it easier to support the House of Saud and the protectorates. The Shah soon also joins into this alliance of sorts, fearing both Islamic fundamentalism and the Soviets and their puppets.

The vast violence in India post-independence causes fears of similar violence in Sri Lanka, which leads to Colombo asking the British to keep a garrison there as a protection force. Knowing that the route to Singapore is an important one, the British agree to this. By the 1960s, Colombo is a major base for the Royal Navy and its efforts in the Indian Ocean.

Singapore gets independence as OTL, but the Malayan Emergency, flaring violence in Vietnam and Indonesia make the tiny city-state somewhat vulnerable, which leads to the same request. As before, Britain wants to ensure sea lane access for its vessels, and agrees to assist Singapore.

The economy of Britain recovers strongly though the 1950s, particularly as the energy supplies are assured and Britain's industrial capacity is moved from weapons of war into peacetime goods. By 1960, Britain is again an industrial power, and while some socialist tendencies are inevitable, Britain's governments fight to find the line between labor interests and those of corporations, and do so with some success. Britain by then is also exporting goods in substantial quantities, including sophisticated goods such as automobiles, ships, aircraft and electronics. This gives Britain the ability sustain its military spending and reduce its debts.

By 1970, plans are underway to replace the oldest of the carriers, with the Queen Elizabeth class of supercarriers. Here, however, as the British retire their oldest such carriers, several of them are sold off. The Queen Elizabeth class of carriers, three in all, enter the fleet in 1974-78. Eagle, Ark Royal and Victorious are sold to Canada, Australia and India, respectively, and all three see many years more service with the Commonwealth navies. British shipbuilding expertise is caught and passed by the Americans, but the close relationship between the two nations is such that British fleet units are often used in the place of American ones.

China begins the negotiations to have Hong Kong back in 1984. Britain is less than keen on giving back the entirety of the glittering colony, which is rapidly becoming one of the wealthiest places under the Union Jack, though they are willing to give back the New Territories if the lease cannot be extended. The Tiananmen Square massacre in June 1989 causes worldwide revulsion of the PRC, and China's trade numbers drop through the floor. Britain takes advantage of this, offering to buy the New Territories outright for a considerable sum. Needing cash to continue covering their needed grain and fuel imports, China takes the offer in September 1990.

By 2000, the Great Britain has 77 million citizens, a $3.2 Trillion economy, and the world's third-largest military force in terms of spending, though Britain's military spending is a high but manageable 3.4% of GDP. A fourth fleet carrier is ordered in 1982 and commissions in 1988. Those carriers - Queen Elizabeth, Duke of Edinburgh, Prince of Wales and Invincible - are the backbone of the Royal Navy fleet. The RN's nuclear deterrent is in the form of four Victorious-class missile submarines, and the RN also maintains five amphibious assault vessels, as well as plenty of support ships. Battleship Vanguard, its usage proven by actions in Suez in 1956 and again in East Africa in 1964, is decommissioned in March 1966 but is kept in such a condition that it can be called back if needed, and as part of this was fitted with CIWS systems and Sea Dart and Exocet missile systems in the early 1980s. It has been called back once, that being for the 1991 Gulf War. Overall, the fleet numbers 112 vessels, not including patrol ships.

This in itself, however is not enough to ensure a British presence - but in combination with the Royal Air Force, which in the 1960s and 1970s built itself a fleet of Avro Vulcan B.3 strike bombers and VC-10 tankers to support them, is enough. These operate from bases in Israel, Cyprus, Qatar, Sri Lanka, Australia, Singapore, South Africa (though the South African bombers were based at Gweru in Zimbabwe from 1981-1995) and the Falkland Islands, as well as in Britain itself.
 

Typo

Banned
China begins the negotiations to have Hong Kong back in 1984. Britain is less than keen on giving back the entirety of the glittering colony, which is rapidly becoming one of the wealthiest places under the Union Jack, though they are willing to give back the New Territories if the lease cannot be extended. The Tiananmen Square massacre in June 1989 causes worldwide revulsion of the PRC, and China's trade numbers drop through the floor. Britain takes advantage of this, offering to buy the New Territories outright for a considerable sum. Needing cash to continue covering their needed grain and fuel imports, China takes the offer in September 1990.
Ummm, there is -no way- China would do that in 1989, it's about as plausible as the US selling Alaska back to Russia to combat it's budget deficit

I don't think people who suggests Communist China would voluntarily yield the claim on their own soveriegn territory in exchange for weapons or money understand exactly how touchy the Chinese are about this issue, or how destabilizing it would be to the legtitimacy of the Chinese government.

Seriously, concessions like might be made during colonial times, but those days are long over.
 
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Ummm, there is -no way- China would do that in 1989, it's about as plausible as the US selling Alaska back to Russia to combat it's budget deficit

I don't think people who suggests Communist China would voluntarily yield the claim on their own soveriegn territory in exchange for weapons or money understand exactly how touchy the Chinese are about this issue, or how destabilizing it would be to the legtitimacy of the Chinese government.

Seriously, concessions like might be made during colonial times, but those days are long over.
How about Taiwan granting the New Territories in perpetuity, in exchange for the Brits recognizing them as 'China'. Then a Thatcher(-esque) government parks most of the RN off the Chinese coast and dares the PRC to take issue with it....
 
How about Taiwan granting the New Territories in perpetuity, in exchange for the Brits recognizing them as 'China'. Then a Thatcher(-esque) government parks most of the RN off the Chinese coast and dares the PRC to take issue with it....

Yeah, why invest in China when you can waste good money keeping the Royal Navy at the other end of the world?
 
Well dathi,that would be a heel of a provocation!I do not think Thatcher would be that stupid,becasause that provocation would certainly means war betwen the UK and the PRC.:eek:
 
I'll admit in that case, I was looking for a way for China to really step in it to the point that Britain wouldn't give HK back, and that just seemed the best way to do it. I guess I need to do more research on that. I do know that there was an exodus of people from HK after Tienanmen Square.
 
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