Challenge: Stable Lebanon

Off the top of my head, the easiest way would be to kick Shiites out. It were wombs of Shia women, producing far more kids per womb than Druze or Maronite ladies did, which upset that fragile applecart of Lebanon's society. Maronites and Druzes have a history of feuds between themselves too, but demography wouldn't change drastically, so they would continue their co-existense. So, how about little ethnic cleansing sometime after 1948? This Maronite-Druze alt-Lebanon would be deeply unloved by it's Muslim neighbours, so an alliance with Israel would be a natural step.
 

Hashasheen

Banned
Off the top of my head, the easiest way would be to kick Shiites out. It were wombs of Shia women, producing far more kids per womb than Druze or Maronite ladies did, which upset that fragile applecart of Lebanon's society. Maronites and Druzes have a history of feuds between themselves too, but demography wouldn't change drastically, so they would continue their co-existense. So, how about little ethnic cleansing sometime after 1948? This Maronite-Druze alt-Lebanon would be deeply unloved by it's Muslim neighbours, so an alliance with Israel would be a natural step.
.... Dude, what the fuck?
 

Hashasheen

Banned
Look, not that I advocate for or support such solution, but OP asked for a way to make stable Lebanon, not for a way which does not violate basic principles of humanity.

Not I'm saying that this is the sole possibility.
That you immediatly went to ethnic cleansing as the possiblity you stated was a little jarring.

But for the OP this is something I've given some thought, and I've wondered about the Swiss Canton model. Why not use that?
 
But for the OP this is something I've given some thought, and I've wondered about the Swiss Canton model. Why not use that?

Is there any reason to suppose that it would work? Is there any experience with that kind of government style in Lebannon or anywhere around?

It's certainly the best-case scenario, but is it the most likely?
 

Hashasheen

Banned
Is there any reason to suppose that it would work?
Sure. The French would make it work. :p

Is there any experience with that kind of government style in Lebannon or anywhere around?
Nope.

It's certainly the best-case scenario, but is it the most likely?
The French would try it. They divided up Syria into several governates, no reason they wouldn't subdivide the subdivision of Lebanon.
 
That you immediatly went to ethnic cleansing as the possiblity you stated was a little jarring.

But for the OP this is something I've given some thought, and I've wondered about the Swiss Canton model. Why not use that?

Hmm, if you're interesting in combining that with the confessional system, then have a look at the Annan Plan. Of course, I have my own ideas. :D;)
 
That you immediatly went to ethnic cleansing as the possiblity you stated was a little jarring.
Buddy, if this kind of game makes you uneasy, you've picked the wrong place to hang out. Every second thread here is aimed at finding PODs to rob the country I'd been born and raised in (x-USSR) of several millions people by killing them in most inhumane fashion (I mean all those "Germany won WWII" or "longer WWII on Eastern Front" threads), and you don't see me throwing fits around, do you?
 

Hashasheen

Banned
Buddy, if this kind of game makes you uneasy, you've picked the wrong place to hang out.
Yes, because ethnic cleansing should immediatly be the first thing to be posted, and in such a calm fashion.:rolleyes: That is of course an expected thing here on AH.com.

Every second thread here is aimed at finding PODs to rob the country I'd been born and raised in (x-USSR) of several millions people by killing them in most inhumane fashion (I mean all those "Germany won WWII" or "longer WWII on Eastern Front" threads), and you don't see me throwing fits around, do you?
You're from where exactly? :confused:
 
Buddy, if this kind of game makes you uneasy, you've picked the wrong place to hang out. Every second thread here is aimed at finding PODs to rob the country I'd been born and raised in (x-USSR) of several millions people by killing them in most inhumane fashion (I mean all those "Germany won WWII" or "longer WWII on Eastern Front" threads), and you don't see me throwing fits around, do you?

That doesn't mean that the automatic response to a what-if (especially if the intention is to produce a more peaceful nation) should be to jump to ethnic cleansing.

You're from where exactly? :confused:
He's russian. (it says that in his post.)

And to be fair, he is right about the large number of threads which screw over russia (although the number is rather exaggerated).
 
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And to be fair, he is right about the large number of threads which screw over russia (although the number is rather exaggerated).

I don't think necessarily those Barbarossa-Victorious threads, it's also all those "Oh man, WI Operation Unthinkable, cool, right, let's nuke Moscow" and "WI Valkyrie works, that means Germany+WAllies vs. Hitler. WW3, let's nuke Moscow" and "WI Poland allies w/ Germany, that means Successful Barbarossa, wouldn't that be good?" and such, ideas that seem to imply that causing death by the millions in the USSR is a swell idea and too bad it wasn't done. You can search for them, I'm sure you'll find an example of one of each that were edited within last ten days alone.
 

Hashasheen

Banned
He's russian. (it says that in his post.)
Ah. He does have a point that WI concerning the Nazi's extending the war do fuck over and massacre more Russians, but I doubt their designed with the intention that more Russians be killed. Its either the long-term effects miltarily or to see if it makes a difference in the post-war world. And how many are made by noobs who can only think of this or the Confederacy as AH?
 
I doubt their designed with the intention that more Russians be killed.
Look, I didn't suggest cleaning Shias out of Lebanon just for the sheer fun of doing it. It was just a cruel and inhumane mean to the end OP wanted (stable Lebanon). Exploring possible consequences, as you've said. And let's be truthful here, percentage-wise most cruel Middle Eastern ethnic cleansing doesn't hold candle to what Nazis did in USSR (how does 25% of Belarussian population being killed, not merely cleansed, in 3 years, sound). I do doubt that worst case scenario of Lebanese ethnic cleansing would cause more than single-digit mortality among Shiites, which makes it almost charitable act comparing to Belarus in 1941-1944.
 
Look, I didn't suggest cleaning Shias out of Lebanon just for the sheer fun of doing it. It was just a cruel and inhumane mean to the end OP wanted (stable Lebanon). Exploring possible consequences, as you've said.

Okay, any other scenarios though?

And let's be truthful here, percentage-wise most cruel Middle Eastern ethnic cleansing doesn't hold candle to what Nazis did in USSR (how does 25% of Belarussian population being killed, not merely cleansed, in 3 years, sound). I do doubt that worst case scenario of Lebanese ethnic cleansing would cause more than single-digit mortality among Shiites, which makes it almost charitable act comparing to Belarus in 1941-1944.

Yes, okay, but let's not go into that? I'm not sure how far this comparison goes in terms of usefulness, except to remind Hash that unpleasant scenarios are part of the way this board works?
 
Okay, any other scenarios though?
Multiconfessional government with outlook changing after each elections. This is almost ASB, but not completely so, as people would most vote confessional in this setup, so government's makeup would reflect slowly changing numbers of each community. Cantonal idea, IMHO, is stillborn, as you need certain pattern of settlement for cantons, which isn't present in Lebanon (you need regions with clear ethnic domination, not a mosaic of villages). May be some kind of old Osman millet system (or what they proposed for Bosnia) would work, with communities electing their own judges and assembly of representatives, with assemblies then picking federal executives.

I'm not sure how far this comparison goes in terms of usefulness, except to remind Hash that unpleasant scenarios are part of the way this board works?
Frankly speaking, I don't appreciate nervous comments about myself approving ethnic cleansings, genocides or Allmighty knows what. I think we can leave this affair behind.
 
Never every political party in Lebanon is the personal fiefdom of a single family (Jumblatt, Gemayel, Aoun, Chamoun) and/or appeals to religion (Hezbollah).

Maybe the key to a stable Lebanon is a political party that appeals across confessional and ethnic lines. The Communist party was not legalized in Lebanon until the late 1960s (by a Druse Interior Minister). If the Communists are legalized earlier and can appeal to working class voters, they could be a kingmaker when it comes to electing a Prime Minister (Sunni Muslim), Speaker (Shiite Muslim) and President (Maronite Christian).

Or maybe a national crisis that can unite the various religious groups, e.g. the assassination of former Prime Minister Rashid Hariri in 2005 united Sunni Muslims, Druse and Maronite Christians against the Syrian-backed government and President. Those protests forced Bashar Assad to order the withdrawal of all Syrian troops from Lebanon.
 
Never every political party in Lebanon is the personal fiefdom of a single family (Jumblatt, Gemayel, Aoun, Chamoun) and/or appeals to religion (Hezbollah).

Maybe the key to a stable Lebanon is a political party that appeals across confessional and ethnic lines. The Communist party was not legalized in Lebanon until the late 1960s (by a Druse Interior Minister). If the Communists are legalized earlier and can appeal to working class voters, they could be a kingmaker when it comes to electing a Prime Minister (Sunni Muslim), Speaker (Shiite Muslim) and President (Maronite Christian).

Or maybe a national crisis that can unite the various religious groups, e.g. the assassination of former Prime Minister Rashid Hariri in 2005 united Sunni Muslims, Druse and Maronite Christians against the Syrian-backed government and President. Those protests forced Bashar Assad to order the withdrawal of all Syrian troops from Lebanon.
 
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