Challenge: Russian Manchuria

Your challenge: with a POD after 1820, have Russia aquire the entirety of Manchuria, including the parts that are Chinese IOTL.

Bonus points if you can make OTL Chinese Manchura majority Russian (considering that this area didn't become majority Han until the later half of the 19th century, I don't think this is too impossible).
 
I don't know if it's feasible, but you could have Russia and China fight a war between 1840 and 1880, after which all the Chinese are gradually expelled and the real estate bought up and settled by Cossacks, with the Qing being powerless to stop it. Cue much earlier collapse of the Qing dynasty and REALLY bad Sino-Russian relations for the next century.
 
While it's not exactly the same, their's always the option of having the Soviet Union annex Manchuria as an SSR.

Though for Russia itself, maybe have a stronger/more aggressive Russia push for a more encompassing Treaty of Aigun including all of Manchuria rather than just Outer Manchuria.

Also, as a side note, Manchuria did'nt become Majority Han until around 1900, the 'Chuang Guandong' (the mass movement of Han to the area) did'nt start in full until the 1890's.
 
While it's not exactly the same, their's always the option of having the Soviet Union annex Manchuria as an SSR.

Though for Russia itself, maybe have a stronger/more aggressive Russia push for a more encompassing Treaty of Aigun including all of Manchuria rather than just Outer Manchuria.

Also, as a side note, Manchuria did'nt become Majority Han until around 1900, the 'Chuang Guandong' (the mass movement of Han to the area) did'nt start in full until the 1890's.

Hmm...I wonder if there could be a way for Russia and Britain/France to overcome their mutual suspicion of each other long enough for Russia to be a full belligerant in the Second Opium War (maybe the Qing mistreat some Russian diplomat). Russia occupies Manchuria, and sponsors independence movements in Sinkang and Mongolia (these rather quickly turn into Russian protectorates).

Given that Manchuria has, IIRC, a fair amount of coal and was the first area of China to industrialize IOTL, I can see it turning into the economic center of the Russian Far East. Be interesting to see what effects a major industrial zone there would have on Russian history.

Also, how many Manchu lived outside of Manchuria during this period? Seen as how all the ones in Manchuria are now lost, I suspect this is going to lead to a rather swift collapse of the Qing and an early warlord era.

Another idea I had, that kind of goes against the conditions I laid out in the OP, and has a post-1900 POD-what if Russia wins the Russo-Japanese War? Their occupation of Manchuria won't be cut short, and without Japan to stop them, I don't see any reason why they won't wind up annexing it. Of course, by now, Manchuria does have a Han majority, so it will be interesting to see how Russia deals with it. If the Russian Revolution still happens I can see it becoming an SSR (heck, if Stalin winds up in charge of Russia, I can see him gerrymandering it into two SSRs-one for Han the other for Manchu)
 
Fixed that for you.

Eh, don't think it would be quite that bad. Stalin (and the USSR in general) loved drawing "ethnic" republics that made no sense-witness Kazakhstan, almost half Russian-speaking, the largely Rusophone Crimea being in Ukraine, the "Circassian" republic that's majority Russian, the "Jewish Autonomous Oblast" that's maybe 5% Jewish, the "Tajikistan" that includes neither Samarkand nor Bukhara, the two major Tajik cultural centers-and those are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. There was actually a reason behind it-it provided a way to give ethnic minorities political power and yet deter actual ethnic separatism by making the borders unworkable. So yes, I can see a Soviet Manchuria having a random squiggly line running through it that divides it into "Han" and "Manchu" parts-that both contain a bunch of Han and a bunch of Manchus, and that have horrible minority problems if they ever become independent countries.
 
Eh, don't think it would be quite that bad. Stalin (and the USSR in general) loved drawing "ethnic" republics that made no sense-witness Kazakhstan, almost half Russian-speaking, the largely Rusophone Crimea being in Ukraine, the "Circassian" republic that's majority Russian, the "Jewish Autonomous Oblast" that's maybe 5% Jewish, the "Tajikistan" that includes neither Samarkand nor Bukhara, the two major Tajik cultural centers-and those are just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. There was actually a reason behind it-it provided a way to give ethnic minorities political power and yet deter actual ethnic separatism by making the borders unworkable. So yes, I can see a Soviet Manchuria having a random squiggly line running through it that divides it into "Han" and "Manchu" parts-that both contain a bunch of Han and a bunch of Manchus, and that have horrible minority problems if they ever become independent countries.

And if Mongolia, with or without Inner Mongolia, ever becomes a SSR, we might see some minority Mongol populations scattered throughout the gerrymandered Manchuria SSRs
 
Hmm...I wonder if there could be a way for Russia and Britain/France to overcome their mutual suspicion of each other long enough for Russia to be a full belligerant in the Second Opium War (maybe the Qing mistreat some Russian diplomat). Russia occupies Manchuria, and sponsors independence movements in Sinkang and Mongolia (these rather quickly turn into Russian protectorates).

Given that Manchuria has, IIRC, a fair amount of coal and was the first area of China to industrialize IOTL, I can see it turning into the economic center of the Russian Far East. Be interesting to see what effects a major industrial zone there would have on Russian history.

Also, how many Manchu lived outside of Manchuria during this period? Seen as how all the ones in Manchuria are now lost, I suspect this is going to lead to a rather swift collapse of the Qing and an early warlord era.

No more interest in this scenario though? Manchuria (an industrialized region with 100 million+ people) being Russian? Warlord China in 1860? Any takers?
 
Hmm...I wonder if there could be a way for Russia and Britain/France to overcome their mutual suspicion of each other long enough for Russia to be a full belligerant in the Second Opium War (maybe the Qing mistreat some Russian diplomat). Russia occupies Manchuria, and sponsors independence movements in Sinkang and Mongolia (these rather quickly turn into Russian protectorates).

Neither really cared about Manchuria until the late 19th century (due to it being next to Korea and Japan), so it's possible, though I think as a seperate thing would make more sense.


Given that Manchuria has, IIRC, a fair amount of coal and was the first area of China to industrialize IOTL, I can see it turning into the economic center of the Russian Far East. Be interesting to see what effects a major industrial zone there would have on Russian history.

It'd likely become one of the conomic hearltands of Russia in general, but yes, having a region in the Eastern half of the country that matched Muscovy (the region, not the city) in terms of population and economy would be interesting.


Also, how many Manchu lived outside of Manchuria during this period? Seen as how all the ones in Manchuria are now lost, I suspect this is going to lead to a rather swift collapse of the Qing and an early warlord era.

A substantial minority did, however they primarily lived in the ares surrounding Manchuria while smaller minority populations lived further out, but overall they almost all lived in the North Eastern chunk of China itself.


If the Russian Revolution still happens I can see it becoming an SSR (heck, if Stalin winds up in charge of Russia, I can see him gerrymandering it into two SSRs-one for Han the other for Manchu)

This actually would'nt be possible since the populations were basically intermixed and the only places where you had substantial majorities of one or the other were either small in terms of territory or had really small populations.

Essentially Manchuria would have to be a single SSR, though one in which a single Manchurian identity, as opposed to seperate Han and Manchu ones, similar to how the Kazakhstani identity is meant to supercede Russian and Kazakh ones, is developed.


No more interest in this scenario though? Manchuria (an industrialized region with 100 million+ people) being Russian? Warlord China in 1860? Any takers?

Generally speaking if Machuria becomes Russian it would be alot less populous.

Depending on the when it'd probably have between 30-60 million instead since their'd be no Han Migration and it'd industrialize faster thus leading to a quicker reduction of birth rates earlier, especially if it starts industrializing before the Green Revolution which allowed for populations to increase alot more.
 
The real question though is, would a Russian Manchuria be worth sacrificing Russia's relations with Qing China? If China ends up becoming more hostile to Russia in the north, then it looks like the Tsars would have a lot of military problems to deal with come around a Great War.
 

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The real question though is, would a Russian Manchuria be worth sacrificing Russia's relations with Qing China? If China ends up becoming more hostile to Russia in the north, then it looks like the Tsars would have a lot of military problems to deal with come around a Great War.

Weren't the qing forces kinda weak at this time?
 
In my TL, Russia acquires Manchuria after the Russo-Japanese War (1906-1909). First ruling it as a protectorate and then annexing it out right several years later. China was in the depths of a civil war at the time and unable to protest. They still have it as of the mid 50's but the population is not majority Russian.
 
Settlement of the area won't really be possible until the Trans-Siberian Railway or equivalent is built, but that can be pretty easily circumvented if Russian surveyors stumble upon iron or coal deposits out there.

As far as effects, let's suppose that the discovery of Manchuria's resources causes the TSRW to be at least partially built 20 to 30 years earlier than OTL, to the effect that by the 1880s, there's a large settled Russian population there. Let's say that in the generation or so that Russia has held and settled Manchuria, industrialization has taken foot in the Russian Far East, particularly in the port city of Vladivostok. This is inevitably going to lead to a more cemented Russian naval presence in the Pacific, and probably with a few ships being built in V-stok.

Two major effects will happen here: One, China will experience at least a trickle of manufactured trade goods from the factories popping up in *Manchuria, and two, Japan will feel significantly more threatened by Russia.

If more goods and merchants are visiting China ITTL, anti-Western sentiments will run higher, maybe resulting an earlier or more destructive Boxer Rebellion. Japan and Russia will come into conflict over China (as OTL) earlier ITTL, not to mention more directly, since Russia now shares a border with Korea.

This could yield some interesting butterflies about Japan's development as a world power during the Meiji period. Maybe they focus elsewhere to avoid conflict with a beefed up Russian Far East? Or maybe they get stuck in a series of costly land wars in Korea and never reach their potential as a power. Either way, East Asia's political scene will be quite different.
 
In my TL, Russia acquires Manchuria after the Russo-Japanese War (1906-1909). First ruling it as a protectorate and then annexing it out right several years later. China was in the depths of a civil war at the time and unable to protest. They still have it as of the mid 50's but the population is not majority Russian.

Was the annexation gradual, like how Japan gradually took the steps necessary to annex Korea? With a beefed up Russian Far East, then perhaps Japan and Germany could become closer together instead of Britain, since Germany shares a border with Russia. Britain may also share a border with Russia, but their border is in India.
 
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