Challenge: Reverse Versailles

[General Zod]

Well. If the Hapsburgs are gone (Perhaps AH collapsed as a result of the war between Prussia and Austria) you've butterflied the layout of the Balkans entirely. This is no small thing--the Ottoman Empire might be a factor as well here.

True for the PoD of Hapsburg collapse (either that or the Ausgleich compromise fails), true for the Balkan butterflies, and true for the Ottoman Empire involvement.

Obviously, you've just killed the trigger for WW1. No AH means no Franz Ferdinand.

Killed out the specific OTL WWI trigger. I have no doubt that the Balkans can provide plenty of other triggers. For one, the Serbs can meddle too much with the Slav subjects of Hungary in other ways (esp. if Hungary annexes Bosnia). Or a different Balkan Wars can precipitate Russian intervention (say Serbia asks the help of Russia, or Bulgary the help of the Triple Alliance).

Also, Italy would then want to expand into Germany and Hungary--which suggests a problem with power alignment.

Not so. The Hapsburg Empire can be easily partitioned in a way (and I have no dfficulty in seeing Bismarck to do so, he would value long-term alliance with Italy rather more than extra bits of territory) that basically satisfies all serious Italian claims from the Habsburg Empire. Italy gets Trento (not Bozen), Gorizia-Gradisca, Trieste, and Dalmatia. They have no further serious claims from Germany or Hungary, all their serious irredentist and colonial claims are against France, and/or they side with Germany in the Franco-German war, they get some territory and France gets revanchist against them, too. Once their claims are fulfilled from the Hapsburg booty, it becomes quite easy for Germany to keep Italy on its side, they just have to promise Italy plenty of French booty in case of a war, and/or vent on the inimity between Italy and France (which existed, and was serious in the 1880s-1890s). Without A-H, there would be no serious opportunity for Italy to switch sides. What can France promise to Italy that would interest them more than what Germany can promise ?

Germany with Austria, Bohemia and Slovenia included is going to be a monster.

They get to use the best parts of the Hapsburg heritage rather more efficiently than A-H.

Hungary, though, would be highly unstable and would probably not be pursuing claims in the Balkans.

Well, they do not have the most problematic unruly nationality of A-H, namely themselves, who are now in charge of the show, nor they have the Czechs, which Germany can keep subdued and assimilate much more efficiently, nor they have the Italians, which are now a loyal ally. They just have the Slovaks, the Croats, and the Romanians. They still have their serious national problems, but it is rather more manageable, since the most advanced and strong nationalities have gone. Still, you are basically right, in that they would not likely pursue any major claims in the Balkans besides Bosnia. That, I would see them getting all the same. Still, they would have a powerful vested interest into stopping Russian encroachments in the Balkans, and here we have a power clash that can easily trigger WWI all the same.

Even if it won't be Franz Ferdinand. Anyway, it would be cheesy, since it would brutally ignore butterfiles, and it's definitely not the trigger I would use, but if one really wants, we can still insert the Hapsburg assassination in the scenario. After all, when the Hapsburg Empire collapses, Hungary is still going to need a king, after all, doesn't it ? Why not "recycle" an Hapsburg scion ? Franz Joseph is too stubborn and would abdicate, but a couple of Hapsburg princes can be be used, one to become the King of Hungary, and another to be the King or Grand Duke of the Cisleithania state that becomes a member of the German Empire. This way, the Hapsburg are not truly ousted, only scaled a level or two down. It looks more clean, for conservative European opinion. It's the kind of gambit I see Bismarck pulling. Voila, you have your Hapsburg heir to the kingdom of Hungary that gets shot in Sarajevo (not sure if he can be Franz Ferdinard proper, would need a look to the family tree).

We know that France and Germany have to oppose each other. That's a Given. Russia supporting Serbia is probably a given, and the Ottoman Empire is going to be looking to retake Egypt from the UK.

So, maybe something like:
Germany, Hungary, Russia, Ottoman Empire vs. France, UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Japan.

Again, Germany and Russia is even more outrageous than Germany and UK.

Instead:

Germany, Hungary, Italy, Ottoman Empire vs. France, Russia, UK.

Japan may likely follow UK's side at first but switches sides during the war (when Russia starts to look defeated).

Why Spain in the Entente ? It is a nifty idea, and I would allow it in theory, but why ? What they stand to gain from opposing Germany ? I could easily see them attacking France instead with the promise of Morocco, Mauritania, and Perpignan.

Anyway, if we talk about minors, then:

Serbia (obviously), Romania, Greece for the Entente. Sweden and Netherlands for the Alliance. Bulgaria can go both ways. Portugal would easily pick the side of UK.

OTL Italy's ambition for territorial gain led it to backstab its allies. I would expect that this means that whoever holds Dalmatia and Tirol is going to be Italy's enemy. I think this is an odd alliance for Germany and Italy to ally here.

Italy already holds Dalmatia and Trento, so it has no real reason to backstab Germany. I cannot see any claim of theirs on Bozen as really serious. No Italians there and no way that might ever tempt them when Germany can point to Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Tunis, Djibouti, Algiers...

 

[Blue Max]

OK.

There is also the fundamental question of tensions in Europe which need to be addressed. If France is politically isolated, as Bismarck intended (and in this scenario, Kaiser Bill supports), WW1 doesn't trigger. If France is given the choice of suicide or watching its neighbors nibble on their neighbors, France has no choice but to endure this situation.

The balance of powers in Europe has to be somewhat equal in Europe. If the balance is widely unequal, the course of events would look something like this.

• Franz Ferdinand is Shot in Serbia (or some other Trigger)

• Bismarckian Alliance ("League of Five"-Hungary, Germany, UK, Italy, Bulgaria) makes a move to attack a nation opposed to their interests.

• France considers a move, recognizes that the situation is hopeless and that it can't do anything to change the outcome, except get itself killed uselessly in the conflict.
• France grudgingly accepts the move. Unless the move is "worth dying for" like depredations against Belgium or claims against Metropolitan France, France is forced to back down.

So what about SuperGermany and Italy going against France by itself? That could work.

 

[General Zod]

Excuse me, but I really cannot understand why you keep saying France is "isolated", when a basic assumption of the scenario is that the Franco-Russian Dual Entente is as rock-hard as the Italo-German-Hungarian Triple Alliance. An alliance with Russia is far, far, far, from isolation !!!!

France was truly isolated as long as Bismarck managed to keep Russia away from it, and UK was isolationistic. But even Bismarck could not have kept the balance between Russia and UK forever, sooner or later Germany would have been forced to choose a side. It only was the overwhelming political ineptitude of Billy and his cronies that they managed to alienate both.

Anyway, France and Russia can easily balance SuperGermany, Hungary, and Italy enough for either France or Russia to rush into war, of this I am sure. Now, barring exceptional Franco-Russian or exceptionally lousy CP generalship, it would most likely be a CP victory in the medium term. But it's not overwhelming. Mind it, Russia's WWI performance was way lousier than what was widely expected before the war.

I easily can see a scenario where the UK stays neutral, even if it is the nominal ally of Germany and Italy, they almost stayed out OTL if Germany hadn't invaded Belgium, they could stay out if the casus belli and the first moves of the war does not threaten Britain's vital interests (France does not invade Belgium first, Russia does not threaten Constantinople).

Also, you could have a scenario where the UK initially stays neutral, but then either France or Russia make a blunder, miscalculate the British reaction (like OTL Germany did with the USA), and Britain enter the war (see above). This would settle the issue of starting the war with UK on the Alliance's side, if not the concerns over the duration of the war. However, if UK enters the war later, when the "Marna crisis" has been survived by France, its impact will not be immediate, trench warfare means it will still take somewhat of a year for combined Anglo-German-Italian forces to wear it down.

SuperGermany and Italy vs. France alone would still be rather unbalanced, a repetition of TTL 1870 war. Overconfident Nappy III tried it and failed disastrously, later French leaders would seek and obtain the Russian alliance before a rematch, unless another foolhardy leader (Boulanger ?) seizes power.

No, I am still honestly persuaded that in order to address your apparent balance of power concerns, the best option is to keep Britain nominally neutral at the start, whether they enter the war later or not. This way, France and Russia can feel sufficiently confident to trigger the war. Maybe the trigger is such that UK does feel honor-bound to enter the way immediately. Albiet it is tricky to find one that doesos and still makes an decent case for Franco-Russian moral responsibility for the war.

Or again, they just miscalculate. OTL start of WWI was one huge pile of miscalculations. Absolutely nobody got it the way they had planned.

Or of it's really, really necessary, UK in the Entente. But I loathe it. It was the shoddy workamanship of William the Idiot and his cronies, and it is refreshing to see Germany act intelligent, for a change.

 

[Blue Max]

Okay. So let's work on this as a draft:

PoD: 1860s "six week war" between Prussia and Austria has an unexpected end--it, instead of the war with France in 1870, results in a real drive towards German unification, and it has the effect of Austria Hungary splitting entirely into Austria and Hungary.
1870 War: Napoleon III is a jerk. Bismarck is able to create a united Germany led by Prussia--and it includes Austria, Bohemia, and Slovenia. The Slovenes are comfortable with the arrangement; the Czechs are grumpy. The Hapsburgs retain both Austria and Hungary--such were the conditions for Austria to join Germany. This also has the effect of making Hungary, at least for a couple of generations, closely allied with Germany. Italy, ambitious for territorial growth, grabs Dalmatia. This is resented at the time, but forgiven.
The Great Game gets Worse: With a better behaved Germany that is not threatening the UK over worthless colonies in Africa, the UK rivalry with Russia intensifies. Both sides contest Central Asia, particularly Afghanistan and Western China. Skirmishes are fought, the United Kingdom attempts to hold on to Afghanistan, which provokes Russian attention. Both nations want the region but the Afghans desire neither.
The Day Before the Storm:

• The Russians are intensely interested in settling two accounts with the United Kingdom and their Japanese Allies: Manchuria, and Afghanistan. For their part, the Japanese see Manchuria as a precious part of a larger empire, and the United Kingdom sees Afghanistan as a critical buffer for India.
• A angry, aggressive France wants Alsace-Lorraine back from Germany and to regain the honor lost in 1870. Instead of talks or diplomacy, France and Germany have begun a massive military buildup.
• Italy's colonies suck and it would like more--probably at the expense of France. That said, with Dalmatia in their hands, Italy is largely a satisfied power.
• The Ottoman Empire is dying. Nationalism is ripping it to pieces, and it remains to be seen whether the new generation can retake Egypt or whether it will never rise again.
• Hungary is Germany's well-cared for pet and remains closely allied with Germany.
• Finally, to close out the list, US President Woodrow Wilson is very busy engaged in what we might call the "Bad Neighbor Policy". Under Wilson, the United States is sending marines all over Latin America, mucking with a Civil War in Mexico, and being a prick. Although history likes to claim that he was a firm believer in self-determination, Wilson was a massive jerk. ITTL, we will assume that Wilson has finally managed to get himself into a incident he can't get out of with the Mexican Civil War now spilling over into the United States. Regrettably, Wilson's poor handling of the situation means that this police action will not end until the end of his second term in 1921.

General Zod, what are the teams?

 

[General Zod]

Well done. About the teams I would suggest:

Mandatory Alliance: Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden.

Optional Alliance: Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria, UK.

Mandatory Entente: France, Russia, Serbia, Romania, Greece, Belgium.

Optional Entente: Bulgaria, China, Ottoman Empire (I regard the OE on the side of Russia as coming somewhat close to ASB, but if you wish the option for the sake of retaking Egypt, you can have it)

Mandatory Neutrals: USA, South America.

Optional Neutrals: UK, Ottoman Empire, China.

Japan follows the lead of UK, except it backstabs Russia when it seems about to fall.

Oh, and USA has owned Canada since the ARW, so the British Empire is somewhat less overwhelming.

Norway would be fine in the Entente if UK had been there, but since they don't, they stay neutral.

Spain, well, I have serious difficulty to place in either field, since they are likely still shell-shocked by the war with the USA, but if you can find a reason to place them in either team, kudos for you.

Portugal will follow the lead of UK, for the very little they value at the time.

 

[Blue Max]

Erm. Let's leave the PoD in 1860 and leave Canada alone. The last thing this scenario needs is a USA-UK rivalry throwing an even larger monkey wrench into the scenario. I think its fine as designed, because a PoD that far back is going to butterfly everything.

My Thoughts on Teams. (and this one is a work in progress)
Team 1- Allied Powers.
Germany--Leading Country of the Alliance, with the still quite alive Bismarckian Alliance structure at the helm.
Hungary--Literally Married to Germany. The Hapsburgs' vow of loyalty to the German Kaiser means that though they retain their dual monarchy, they are somewhat controlled by Germany.
Bulgaria--An enemy of an enemy is a friend. In this case, Romania is that enemy and Hungary is that friend.

Late Additions:
Finland--as Russia's fortunes begin to fail, the Finns rally for independence. They join the German alliance in hopes of grabbing a large amount of territory.
Italy--Italy is reluctant to join the fighting, but sees an opportunity in jumping on the losers, which it believes is Russia and France.
United Kingdom--The United Kingdom attempted to push its luck while Russia was distracted; a miscalculation its part. Now the UK and its Gurkhas are fighting a third Afghan war against Russia, a conflict that leads to the third real front of the War--the Central Asian Front.
Japan--The Manchurian Issue must be resolved, and both Japan and Russia have something to prove. Japan seeks to be an equal to other colonizing powers and is upset at its weak treaty arrangement with Russia, while Russia is dismayed over its defeats at sea in that conflict.

Against their Rivals:
The Entente
France--France wants AL Back. There will be no negotiating, no yielding, and no conceding. This is do or die.
Russia--Russia's order for a general mobilization may well have exploded this conflict from a spat between states into a global conflagration. In any case, tensions in Afghanistan and German dreams of expanding over Russian territory mean that the Bear is in for a long fight.
Romania--Surrounded by enemies, Romania has no choice but to accept Russian aid. As the Russian Bear staggers, Romania's fate is sealed.
Serbia--Serbia probably started this whole conflict one way or another. They are part of the war.

Late additions:
Belgium--Luckless Belgium is "on the way" to destruction. If France and Germany are going to war, Belgium offers a way to get there. That is, regrettably, all the reason they get involved.
Ireland--The Easter Rebellion strikes in the middle of the war, forcing the UK to divert troops to put it down and maintain garrisons throughout the island.
Afghanistan--The Afghans don't want the UK running the show, which they would like to do. Although not in any way committed to the aims of European Powers, Afghanistan would like to recoup some of its territory from one country and respect from the other. With a UK garrison in Kandahar, the choice is to drive the UK out.

Notable Neutrals:
Ottoman Empire (Plans to jump on the loser)
United States of America (President Wilson's bad neighbor policy isn't working out, and now the USA is embroiled in the Mexican Civil War)
Qing China (All options suck. Qing China is all too happy to take the opportunity to modernize and catch up with the rest of the world. It's not nearly enough, but they'll sit this one out.
The Netherlands (Historic Rivalry with the United Kingdom, but no real claims on any countries means that the Dutch will sit this conflict out.)
Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Although their merchant shipping is getting trashed, none of these countries want to get involved with this nasty conflict.
Latin America. See USA's bad neighbor policy above.

 

[Lord Insane]

Erm. Let's leave the PoD in 1860 and leave Canada alone. The last thing this scenario needs is a USA-UK rivalry throwing an even larger monkey wrench into the scenario. I think its fine as designed, because a PoD that far back is going to butterfly everything.

Qing China (All options suck. Qing China is all too happy to take the opportunity to modernize and catch up with the rest of the world. It's not nearly enough, but they'll sit this one out.

Changing the POd probably won't occur. Actually, going by the previous discussion on that, the main problem for USA-UK rivalry isn't TTL's ARW (that's just OTL, but slightly more), but TTL 1812. That war has lots of potential for severely damaging Anglo-American reapproachement, mayhap forever.

Hm... do we *know* it will be Qing China? Butterflies are limited here, and, going by OTL, what's in China is Shikai's Republic.

 

[General Zod]

Erm. Let's leave the PoD in 1860 and leave Canada alone. The last thing this scenario needs is a USA-UK rivalry throwing an even larger monkey wrench into the scenario. I think its fine as designed, because a PoD that far back is going to butterfly everything.

Well, this is largely a side issue, but the USA winning Canada in the ARW is very little of a butterfly. It is just an expansion of the OTL strategic outcome of American independence, and it only means Britain is slightly more focused on conquering a new Empire in Asia (which will heighten the rivalry with France and Russia, and feed the WWI outcome) and less focused on developing the Dominion model. The British Empire is slightly more "colonial", probably it pushes Netherlands out of most or all Indonesia, but as it concerns the main 1860s PoD, it is entirely irrelevant. The loss of British Canada almost a century before is completely irrelevant to mid-late 1800s politics.

My Thoughts on Teams. (and this one is a work in progress)
Team 1- Allied Powers.
Germany--Leading Country of the Alliance, with the still quite alive Bismarckian Alliance structure at the helm.
Hungary--Literally Married to Germany. The Hapsburgs' vow of loyalty to the German Kaiser means that though they retain their dual monarchy, they are somewhat controlled by Germany.
Bulgaria--An enemy of an enemy is a friend. In this case, Romania is that enemy and Hungary is that friend.

Late Additions:
Finland--as Russia's fortunes begin to fail, the Finns rally for independence. They join the German alliance in hopes of grabbing a large amount of territory.
Italy--Italy is reluctant to join the fighting, but sees an opportunity in jumping on the losers, which it believes is Russia and France.
United Kingdom--The United Kingdom attempted to push its luck while Russia was distracted; a miscalculation its part. Now the UK and its Gurkhas are fighting a third Afghan war against Russia, a conflict that leads to the third real front of the War--the Central Asian Front.
Japan--The Manchurian Issue must be resolved, and both Japan and Russia have something to prove. Japan seeks to be an equal to other colonizing powers and is upset at its weak treaty arrangement with Russia, while Russia is dismayed over its defeats at sea in that conflict.

Against their Rivals:
The Entente
France--France wants AL Back. There will be no negotiating, no yielding, and no conceding. This is do or die.
Russia--Russia's order for a general mobilization may well have exploded this conflict from a spat between states into a global conflagration. In any case, tensions in Afghanistan and German dreams of expanding over Russian territory mean that the Bear is in for a long fight.
Romania--Surrounded by enemies, Romania has no choice but to accept Russian aid. As the Russian Bear staggers, Romania's fate is sealed.
Serbia--Serbia probably started this whole conflict one way or another. They are part of the war.

Late additions:
Belgium--Luckless Belgium is "on the way" to destruction. If France and Germany are going to war, Belgium offers a way to get there. That is, regrettably, all the reason they get involved.
Ireland--The Easter Rebellion strikes in the middle of the war, forcing the UK to divert troops to put it down and maintain garrisons throughout the island.
Afghanistan--The Afghans don't want the UK running the show, which they would like to do. Although not in any way committed to the aims of European Powers, Afghanistan would like to recoup some of its territory from one country and respect from the other. With a UK garrison in Kandahar, the choice is to drive the UK out.

Notable Neutrals:
Ottoman Empire (Plans to jump on the loser)
United States of America (President Wilson's bad neighbor policy isn't working out, and now the USA is embroiled in the Mexican Civil War)
Qing China (All options suck. Qing China is all too happy to take the opportunity to modernize and catch up with the rest of the world. It's not nearly enough, but they'll sit this one out.
The Netherlands (Historic Rivalry with the United Kingdom, but no real claims on any countries means that the Dutch will sit this conflict out.)
Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Although their merchant shipping is getting trashed, none of these countries want to get involved with this nasty conflict.
Latin America. See USA's bad neighbor policy above.

Hmm, I would mostly approve the teams, only some reservations.

Finland I would be hesitant to call a true player, they get liberated close to the end of the war, like Congress Poland, the Baltics, and the Ukrainians. They can provide some troops once they are liberated, but the liberation of their territory is a sign that the Russian collapse is close at hand, a matter of a few months.

I notice you classify Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia as start players, but the Ottoman Empire does not. That implies you picture some kind of Balkan Wars trouble as TTL war trigger, which Russian intervention blows up into a general war. That's quite fine, even if it's not the only likely trigger, I remark it just to be sure.

I also notice you state Belgium and the UK getting involved later. This is also quite fine (it lets France and Russia have less of cold feet abour rushing into the war) but it implies a lot about the sequence of the war involvement. First, it needs a trigger that does not make the UK immediately honor-bound to enter the war, yet keeps it quite sympathetic to the CPs, and implies the Entente making a blunder that provokes the British to DoW. It can easily be France violating Belgium's neutrality, getting involved into Afghanistan, or both (since the Ottoman Empire is neutral). This means that Germany does not use Schliffen immediately and likely France enters Belgium first. Do you picture Afghanistan as a local unrest that the Russians meddle in before the war, angering the British more and more, or a front that activates after the start of the war ?

About Italy, I really have severe objections about not letting them joining the fray from the start. TTL, their strategic partnership with Germany is without any ambiguity, just like Hungary, they have no real claim on its allies, they stand to gain a lot from looting France (and Germany has been historically generous with them), plans and miliary collaboration technical deals for this war have been standing for decades, there is no reason for secret deals with France that is by now the hereditary enemy, and Britain is friendly. Also there is historical precedent (1866) for them joining the war from the start. The situation is quite similar to 1866. For once, I'm quite persuaded they do the honorable thing and draw the sword as soon as war between Germany and France is declared.

I would also remark that if Germany does not use the Schliffen option from the start, Germany fighting in Luxembourg-Alsace-Lorraine and Italy fighting on the Alps does not put France in peril of immediate collapse, thanks to her fortifications. So no danger of too brief a war. True, on the long-term France will surely exaust her manpower reserves and collapse, but they can resist a year or two. Of course, the opening of the Belgian front and UK intervention will likely halve the lifespan of the French Army.

If the French get pinned down in Alsace-Lorraine, as they will, they might just try an encirclement through Belgium, esp. if Belgium acquiesces thanks to philo-French Waloon opinion, and this is an excellent later casus belli for Britain, esp. if they also are angry/paranoid about Russian enchroachment in Afghanistan. Alternatively, UK enters the war about Russian activities in Asia (less likely: why are Russians provoking the British Lion when they already have a war on their hands; yet, they might fatally miscalculate, as the Zimmerman Telegram), the UK DoWs Russia, greenlights Germany to go through Belgium, King Albert refuses, Germany and the BEF invade Belgium.

In both cases, we obtain the delayed UK intervention, and the British grow quite disllusioned with the ungrateful cryptoFrench Belgians, so after the war they are quite willing to go along with partition schemes.

 

[General Zod]

Other minor considerations on the teams: full agreement on Japan and Ireland (I wonder what the fate of post-war Ireland will be; if the UK ends a victorious war with less exaustion, they might be less willing to give the Irish anything more than non-Ulster Home Rule; I also have a minor, very tentative butterfly in mind, since United Empire Loyalists won't have Canada to go, they might just go into Ireland, which will significantly booster the Unionists and make the Irish problem even more thorny, but that's a post-war aside).

About the Ottomans, they might just sit out most of the war, if the trigger doesn't involve them, since Greece is neutral and Bulgaria is in the Alliance. Quite possibly, they might backstab Russia when it's close to collapse. However, surely Germany will be quite unwilling to part with substantial amounts of the Caucasus, or the British with Egypt or Persia, so they might end up quite frustrated.

The Netherlands I was just trying to get involved sometime in the war, to make them more philo-German and involved in European unification movements after the war and advance my post-war Belgium partition scheme. And they may be won over with a Dietsland plan. It's not that important, since any military contribution of them will be overly symbolic.

Likewise, for Sweden any contribution of them is essentially minor, even if not so trivial as Netherlands. Their involvement in WWI is mostly a way to nip their annoying neutrality tradition in the bud, and therefore make them more interested in European unification in the long term. They were philo-German, in a war where Germany has a far better moral ground (no "rape of Belgium" issue), UK alliance, and a better standing vs. Russia, they might just be willing to leand an hand to expel the Russians from Finland and the Baltics. Also, a Swedish-Finnish front means the Germans may be able to liberate Finald somewhat sooner.

About the naval side of the conflict: with the UK a friendly neutral, Germany and Italy ought to be able and give France and Russia a fair match. Once UK and Japan enter the fray, the Franco-Russians will be totally wiped from the oceans and hermetically blockaded. They do not have a foodstuff problem nowhere as serious as Germany or Britain, but they will have a commodity problem as serious as Germany, with rather less potential to develop an ertzats industry. Russia is self-sufficent as foodstuffs go, but they will be forced to rely on their insufficient home munitions industry even worse than OTL. I'm not any sure whether WWI France is truly self-sufficient or not as foodstuff goes, but surely her industry will suffer the Allied blockade a lot.

These factors will gradually worsen the moral of the Entente populations kinda like OTL Germany, so that combined with total military defeats and severe territorial losses makes severe civil unrest and revolutions quite likely in the war aftermath. Not necessarily successful revolutions, although. The Allied armies will be prim and ready to shot down any revolution they don't like, which likley kisses goodbye to Lenin and his ilk.

On the contrary, the Allied powers will not suffer any resource hardship, which will sustain their moral. German, Hungarian, and Italian internal front likely resembles the one of OTL Britain: the sting of military casualties (not so many since the war is significantly shorter), but no real privation.

As it concerns the USA, they are sufficiently content, since their commerce with their major partners, UK and Germany, continues unabated. They will likely make some protests about the blockade of France and Russia, but it carries no real force, since they are nowhere as important as commercial partners. Their immigrant demographics mean they can easily cheer for the gallant Anglo-German-Italians crushing the treacherous French and the savage Russians. Therefore, they can eagerly concentrate on their various "police actions" in Mexico and South America.

 

[General Zod]

Changing the POd probably won't occur. Actually, going by the previous discussion on that, the main problem for USA-UK rivalry isn't TTL's ARW (that's just OTL, but slightly more), but TTL 1812. That war has lots of potential for severely damaging Anglo-American reapproachement, mayhap forever.

About this, I'm still persuaded that losing the West Indies in 1812 is nowhere as geopolitically significant or humiliating for the British Empire as to have such long-term effects. Like losing Canada and Florida in 1783, it's just different degrees of the same strategic outcome, expulsion from North America. Anglo-American relationship healed the loss of the 13 colonies, they would heal the complete loss of North America too. No, what would severely damage them and create a long-term serious rivalry is if the British enmesh themselves in the ACW. Luckily, without Canada the British Empire is even less willing to mess with the Confederacy, and there are plenty of butterflies to keep the Trent Affair from blowing out of control.

Hm... do we *know* it will be Qing China? Butterflies are limited here, and, going by OTL, what's in China is Shikai's Republic.

Hmm, about China there are some serious potential butterflies, namely: Anglo-German alliance in the 1890s might well cause the Franco-Russian Entente to grow even tighter, which might move the Freench to intervene in the Russo-Japanese war, which might cause a stalemate or a Russian victory.

Also, a British Empire that lost Canada long ago may well be somewhat more eager to claim territories in Asia. This may mean Persia and Central Asia (which will feed the Anglo-Russian rivalry, and hence the scenario), Indonesia (which will be irrelevant: they rob Netherlands, a minor), Siam and Indochina (which will feed the Anglo-French rivalry, as above), or China (again a clash with Russia and France, but also rather more pressure for territorial loss on Chinese government), or quite possibly a mix from all of the above.

These factors may, or may not, heighten the speed of decay of the Qing Dynasty significantly.

 

[Blue Max]

Afghanistan is a Vietnam like nightmare for both the UK and Russia. The land has little value and offers many, many places for rebels to hide. But both Russian and UK strategic aims require Afghanistan to be in their sphere of influence.

[Canada is a very difficult thing to touch. Did you want to butterfly the Louisiana Purchase away and leave the region under Spanish Control?--because I suspect that if the USA is so early a dominant player that it will not happen.] And there is the part where the USA, with Canada Included, still has a large frontier including a Yukon gold rush. This means that we could be dealing with a USA with 150 Million People, thanks to the obvious changes in immigration this would create.

I remain confident that screwing with the American Revolution will not help this scenario--why complicate it further, and how to address the butterflies that would result if the UK and the USA are embittered over 1812?

Outbreak of War, Timeline.

WW1 Triggers:
Opium: The British Governor of Afghanistan, deducing that Opium could fetch a good price in unfriendly portions of Europe, begins to send shipments of the drugs to France and Russia, which leads to international tensions. France and Russia will not go to war over the drug trade, but the antagonism is prolonged.
Serbia and Bulgaria clash: Serbia and Bulgaria both claim the same region of what is today Macedonia.
French/German rivalry: France wants AL, and Germany wants it too.


[Thoughts: I'm going to insist that the USA doesn't have Canada. If the USA grabbed Canada, this means that you have a UK that is going to have claims on it, leading to another bitter spat that draws the USA into the conflict.]

April 14, 1914: Bulgaria, with support from Hungary, decides to grab Macedonia from Serbia. On this day, Serbia is presented with demands for the immediate cessation of this region. It declines.
April 21, 1914: Bulgaria mobilizes against the Serbian Border. Serbia mobilizes as well, and, unexpectedly, so does Romania.
April 23, 1914: In a quiet meeting in Berlin, Kaiser Wilhelm summons the leading members of German nobility--the Princes and Kings of Smaller German States, including King Ferdinand of Austria and Hungary. As much a matter of formality as well as an issue of state, the important portion of the gathering, just two hours out of the six hour meeting, discusses the German and Hungarian position on the Bulgarian-Serbian crisis. Although some reiterate variations of Bismarck's predictions that some Balkan Incident would trigger a global war, the ruling elites are pleasantly reminded that should the situation come to that, the German-Hungarian Armies are fully capable of crushing France in the same great way as it happened in 1870. With their support in hand, Germany's position is finalized--Germany will support Bulgaria, and the Entente would either read the writing on the wall and let it happen, or they will lose a quick war, just as 1870 had been before.
April 25, 1914: Serbia formally requests Russian Assistance. A firefight breaks out on the Serbian-Bulgarian border, later revealed to be caused by Serbia.
April 26, 1914: Russia begins to mobilize. Germany protests; the German Army begins to counter mobilize.
April 27, 1914: Unexpectedly, France begins to mobilize. The French Idea is that they can finish their mobilization first, and press the advantage to grab and hold AL from Germany.
May 1, 1914: Bulgaria receives support for Germany for a Plebiscite of Macedonian Territory. Serbia responds by launching a surprise attack against Bulgaria, apparently with Russian Support.
May 9th, 1914: With Russia still mobilizing, France attacks a fully mobilized Germany. The attack achieves local surprise, and France seizes Metz and Strasbourg.
May 10th, 1914: Italy denounces France's surprise attack, begins to mobilize. France is forced to begin diverting reinforcements to protect its southern flank.
May 11th, 1914: Russia and Germany do not declare war, but admit that a state of war exists between them.
MAY-JUNE 1914: The French consolidate their hold on AL; resisting a hastily assembled German counterattack. France responds by building trenches to cover the area.
In the Eastern Front, the German Army is Forced to Withdraw from Konigsburg and is in full retreat against a Russian enemy who outnumbers them 2:1 on some parts of the Front.
JULY 1914: The Miracle of Tannenburg. A Haphazard Russian Advance and rivalry between the Russian commanders means that the Russian advance is fragmented and vulnerable. Paul Von Hindenburg achieves one of the greatest victories in the war by smashing the Russian armies, despite their numerical superiority. Another Front opens as Italy begins to attack and faces counter attack along the French Border. This fighting has already begun to spread to colonial engagements. Tunisia is hotly contested by Italy and France.
August-November 1914: The French positions in AL are gradually pushed back. Despite their best efforts, France is unable to hold their gains. In the south, Italy is stalemated, advancing no more than 5 miles into French territory. And during this time, Russian forces are slowly being beaten backward by Germany. To resolve this situation, Russia begins to redeploy her forces against Hungary.
December 14th, 1914: The UK decides to formalize its control over Afghanistan; a move they know to be provocative, but Russia is in no position to refuse. Unfortunately, as UK Forces begin moving into Afghanistan en masse, Russia begins to do the same.
December 20th, 1914: A US merchantman is sunk by a German submarine, chilling relations between Germany and the United States. Woodrow Wilson is too busy planning endless incursions in Latin America to seriously notice.

 

[Earling]

About this, I'm still persuaded that losing the West Indies in 1812 is nowhere as geopolitically significant or humiliating for the British Empire as to have such long-term effects. Like losing Canada and Florida in 1783, it's just different degrees of the same strategic outcome, expulsion from North America. Anglo-American relationship healed the loss of the 13 colonies, they would heal the complete loss of North America too. No, what would severely damage them and create a long-term serious rivalry is if the British enmesh themselves in the ACW. Luckily, without Canada the British Empire is even less willing to mess with the Confederacy, and there are plenty of butterflies to keep the Trent Affair from blowing out of control.

The problem is there would be massive divergences at the strategic level if Britain is expelled from the New World. If anything, Britain has far less reason not to dabble in American affairs. The Union could threaten Canada in OTL, in this timeline the British have nothing much to lose and quite alot to gain.

Further more in OTL the Monroe doctrine was enforced by the Royal Navy. The British felt they could share the Western Hemisphere, maintaining informal Empire in the south and generally letting the USA get on with their own affairs. Having been expelled from the North America, there may well be a considerable ambition to establish a concrete dominion in South America to prevent the USA claiming the lot. Argentina for example. The British felt they could comprimise with the USA because the gains were minor and the losses were potentially considerable. Well here you have removed any possible losses for Britain. Britain therefore has a far more pressing desire to see the USA is constrained everywhere; a second Russia if you will. That means the situation of OTL where the USA has considerable influence in Asia is likely quashed. It would be considered too dangerous to permit.

 

[General Zod]

Afghanistan is a Vietnam like nightmare for both the UK and Russia. The land has little value and offers many, many places for rebels to hide. But both Russian and UK strategic aims require Afghanistan to be in their sphere of influence.

Yep. however the Vietnam-like scenario only begins when ONE conqueror begins to try and solidify its hold on the country. As long as it is a battlefield between two invaders the natives will mostly play off one against the other and therefore be not much of a problem.

I'm leaving the Canada issue aside for a momnet.

Outbreak of War, Timeline.

WW1 Triggers:
Opium: The British Governor of Afghanistan, deducing that Opium could fetch a good price in unfriendly portions of Europe, begins to send shipments of the drugs to France and Russia, which leads to international tensions. France and Russia will not go to war over the drug trade, but the antagonism is prolonged.
Serbia and Bulgaria clash: Serbia and Bulgaria both claim the same region of what is today Macedonia.
French/German rivalry: France wants AL, and Germany wants it too.


[Thoughts: I'm going to insist that the USA doesn't have Canada. If the USA grabbed Canada, this means that you have a UK that is going to have claims on it, leading to another bitter spat that draws the USA into the conflict.]

April 14, 1914: Bulgaria, with support from Hungary, decides to grab Macedonia from Serbia. On this day, Serbia is presented with demands for the immediate cessation of this region. It declines.
April 21, 1914: Bulgaria mobilizes against the Serbian Border. Serbia mobilizes as well, and, unexpectedly, so does Romania.
April 23, 1914: In a quiet meeting in Berlin, Kaiser Wilhelm summons the leading members of German nobility--the Princes and Kings of Smaller German States, including King Ferdinand of Austria and Hungary. As much a matter of formality as well as an issue of state, the important portion of the gathering, just two hours out of the six hour meeting, discusses the German and Hungarian position on the Bulgarian-Serbian crisis. Although some reiterate variations of Bismarck's predictions that some Balkan Incident would trigger a global war, the ruling elites are pleasantly reminded that should the situation come to that, the German-Hungarian Armies are fully capable of crushing France in the same great way as it happened in 1870. With their support in hand, Germany's position is finalized--Germany will support Bulgaria, and the Entente would either read the writing on the wall and let it happen, or they will lose a quick war, just as 1870 had been before.
April 25, 1914: Serbia formally requests Russian Assistance. A firefight breaks out on the Serbian-Bulgarian border, later revealed to be caused by Serbia.
April 26, 1914: Russia begins to mobilize. Germany protests; the German Army begins to counter mobilize.
April 27, 1914: Unexpectedly, France begins to mobilize. The French Idea is that they can finish their mobilization first, and press the advantage to grab and hold AL from Germany.
May 1, 1914: Bulgaria receives support for Germany for a Plebiscite of Macedonian Territory. Serbia responds by launching a surprise attack against Bulgaria, apparently with Russian Support.
May 9th, 1914: With Russia still mobilizing, France attacks a fully mobilized Germany. The attack achieves local surprise, and France seizes Metz and Strasbourg.
May 10th, 1914: Italy denounces France's surprise attack, begins to mobilize. France is forced to begin diverting reinforcements to protect its southern flank.
May 11th, 1914: Russia and Germany do not declare war, but admit that a state of war exists between them.
MAY-JUNE 1914: The French consolidate their hold on AL; resisting a hastily assembled German counterattack. France responds by building trenches to cover the area.
In the Eastern Front, the German Army is Forced to Withdraw from Konigsburg and is in full retreat against a Russian enemy who outnumbers them 2:1 on some parts of the Front.
JULY 1914: The Miracle of Tannenburg. A Haphazard Russian Advance and rivalry between the Russian commanders means that the Russian advance is fragmented and vulnerable. Paul Von Hindenburg achieves one of the greatest victories in the war by smashing the Russian armies, despite their numerical superiority. Another Front opens as Italy begins to attack and faces counter attack along the French Border. This fighting has already begun to spread to colonial engagements. Tunisia is hotly contested by Italy and France.
August-November 1914: The French positions in AL are gradually pushed back. Despite their best efforts, France is unable to hold their gains. In the south, Italy is stalemated, advancing no more than 5 miles into French territory. And during this time, Russian forces are slowly being beaten backward by Germany. To resolve this situation, Russia begins to redeploy her forces against Hungary.
December 14th, 1914: The UK decides to formalize its control over Afghanistan; a move they know to be provocative, but Russia is in no position to refuse. Unfortunately, as UK Forces begin moving into Afghanistan en masse, Russia begins to do the same.
December 20th, 1914: A US merchantman is sunk by a German submarine, chilling relations between Germany and the United States. Woodrow Wilson is too busy planning endless incursions in Latin America to seriously notice.

Almost entirely rather well done. Opium is not the trigger I would have used, instead skirmishes over Fashoda and/or Afghanistan or UK claiming Siam or France intervening in the Russo-Japanese war, but it is fine enough.

It is realistic that Italy would eventually get stalemated in the Alps, but it is a little excessive to so after just 5 miles. Using the 1940 outcome is not correct. In comparison to the French Army, the Italian Army was in much better shape in 1914 than in 1940, and the Alpes fortifications were not as strong. I expect them to advance at least 20-30 Kms before getting stalemated.

An USA merchant ship getting sunk by a German submarine is a rather odd occurrence, since the UK is neutral (but getting close to the Central Powers by the hour), Germany is not that much involved in submarine warfare in 1914, and commerce between USA and France was not that abundant. It is correct to show that the USA are disinterested in the war in Europe, but I think it's preferable to just let Wilson issue a declaration of strict neutrality as he focuses on his Latin America "police actions".

Serbia should have been overrun almost immediately. With the Hungarians hammering them from above, and the Bulgarians from the side, they are hopeless. OTL, they collapsed as soon as Bulgaria entered the war. Following your TL, we could have them fall in early 1915, but still I think it is unrealistic for them to resist six months. Also Italy is an enemy here, and most probably will send some troops to attack Serbia from Montenegro and Albania as well, so they are attacked from three sides, and they ought to fall within a couple months. Also, the defeated Serbian Army has nowhere to retreat to, so it will be completely captured or destroyed.

Therefore, I'd revise your 1914 TL as follows:

April 14, 1914: Bulgaria, with support from Hungary, decides to grab Macedonia from Serbia. On this day, Serbia is presented with demands for the immediate cessation of this region. It declines.
April 21, 1914: Bulgaria mobilizes against the Serbian Border. Serbia mobilizes as well, and, unexpectedly, so does Romania.
April 23, 1914: In a quiet meeting in Berlin, Kaiser Wilhelm summons the leading members of German nobility--the Princes and Kings of Smaller German States, including King Ferdinand of Austria and Hungary. As much a matter of formality as well as an issue of state, the important portion of the gathering, just two hours out of the six hour meeting, discusses the German and Hungarian position on the Bulgarian-Serbian crisis. Although some reiterate variations of Bismarck's predictions that some Balkan Incident would trigger a global war, the ruling elites are pleasantly reminded that should the situation come to that, the German-Hungarian Armies are fully capable of crushing France in the same great way as it happened in 1870. With their support in hand, Germany's position is finalized--Germany will support Bulgaria, and the Entente would either read the writing on the wall and let it happen, or they will lose a quick war, just as 1870 had been before.
April 25, 1914: Serbia formally requests Russian Assistance. A firefight breaks out on the Serbian-Bulgarian border, later revealed to be caused by Serbia.
April 26, 1914: Russia begins to mobilize. Germany protests; the German Army begins to counter mobilize.
April 27, 1914: Unexpectedly, France begins to mobilize. The French Idea is that they can finish their mobilization first, and press the advantage to grab and hold AL from Germany.
May 1, 1914: Bulgaria receives support for Germany for a Plebiscite of Macedonian Territory. Serbia responds by launching a surprise attack against Bulgaria, apparently with Russian Support.
May 9th, 1914: With Russia still mobilizing, France attacks a fully mobilized Germany. The attack achieves local surprise, and France seizes Metz and Strasbourg.
May 10th, 1914: Italy denounces France's surprise attack, begins to mobilize. France is forced to begin diverting reinforcements to protect its southern flank.
May 11th, 1914: Russia and Germany do not declare war, but admit that a state of war exists between them.
MAY-JUNE 1914: The French consolidate their hold on AL; resisting a hastily assembled German counterattack. France responds by building trenches to cover the area.
In the Eastern Front, the German Army is Forced to Withdraw from Konigsburg and is in full retreat against a Russian enemy who outnumbers them 2:1 on some parts of the Front.
The USA declare their strict neutrality in the war. Woodrow Wilson is too busy planning endless incursions in Latin America to seriously pay attention to European matters.
JULY 1914: The Miracle of Tannenburg. A Haphazard Russian Advance and rivalry between the Russian commanders means that the Russian advance is fragmented and vulnerable. Paul Von Hindenburg achieves one of the greatest victories in the war by smashing the Russian armies, despite their numerical superiority. Another Front opens as Italy begins to attack and faces counter attack along the French Border. This fighting has already begun to spread to colonial engagements. Tunisia is hotly contested by Italy and France and Equatorial Africa by Germany and France.
Attacked from three sides (Hungary from the North, Bulgaria from the East, and Italy from the West, the latter sending an expedition corps across Montenegro and Albania), Serbia quickly collapses after two months of war, and it is occupied by the Allied powers, its entire army captured or destroyed.
August-November 1914: The French positions in AL are gradually pushed back. Despite their best efforts, France is unable to hold their gains. In the south, Italy is stalemated, advancing no more than 20 miles into French territory. And during this time, Russian forces are slowly being beaten backward by Germany. To resolve this situation, Russia begins to redeploy her forces against Hungary.
December 14th, 1914: The UK decides to formalize its control over Afghanistan; a move they know to be provocative, but Russia is in no position to refuse. Unfortunately, as UK Forces begin moving into Afghanistan en masse, Russia begins to do the same.

I also suppose the big events for 1915 should be the intervention of Romania and Britain. I propose the following rough timeline: enticed by Franco-Russian promises about Transylvania, they enter the war in early-mid 1915, but after initial advances, they are overrun by a combined Hungarian-Bulgarian counterattack and Wallachia is occupied in 3-4 months. This mirrors the OTL Romanian campaign and just like Serbia, I assume the outcome would repeat here, since Serbia is already out of the picture.

About the Western front, in Spring 1915, France tries to turn the strategic balance by unleashing their "great idea": in combination with the Romanian entry in the war, they plan to go through Belgium and encircle Germany in Alsace-Lorraine. There two options here: either Belgium resists and pleads for British and German help, or they are lured with promises of territorial gains in Rhineland and they let them cross. Anyway, the British already getting steadily more suspicious and angrier over Russian moves in Afghanistan, are outraged over the violation of Belgian neutrality and declare war on France and Russia. The French are able to penetrate Belgium in depth (how much depends whether the Belgians let them through or they resist) but they are eventually stopped by the Germans rushing troops north and the British deploying the BEF in Flemish ports. The front eventually stabilizes somewhere in Belgium. It is also quite possible (but not a given) that the Netherlands may open its territory (if not actually enter the war) to the Anglo-German, which woulf significantly facilitate the deployment of the British forces.

For the moment, the front stabilizes in the Flanders and Waloonia, even if the French are overstretched in the long term. The British fleet teams with the German and Italian ones and bottles the Franco-Russian ones in their ports. France and Russia come under a total naval blockade. Altough this does not put their population into immediate risk of starvation (especially Russia) their war industries suffer significantly. In Africa and Asia, French troops in the colonies, utterlu deprived of supplies, are gradually wiped out. In Central Asia, Russian and British troops clash in Afghanistan and Persia. And Japan begins to consider an intervention against Russia.

If you agree with these ideas, do you wish the honor of the detailed TL for 1915 ? You did 1914 nifty. On the big picture, I assume that by the end of 1915 or early 1916 France should crush under pressure, even with trench warfare favouring defense, they are way overstretched, fighting three great powers on three sides, especially if the Anglo-Germans and the Italians establish some kind of Allied High Command and start coordinating and combining their offensives.

 

[General Zod]

I remain confident that screwing with the American Revolution will not help this scenario--why complicate it further, and how to address the butterflies that would result if the UK and the USA are embittered over 1812?

Because I plan to eventually do a TL which combines the USA absorbing all of North America and large chunks of South America and the European scenario we are discussing, that's why. But that's for tomorrow. Since the USA will remain neutral ITTL WWI, we can focus on discussing the war in Europe (and eventually Africa and Asia).

[Canada is a very difficult thing to touch. Did you want to butterfly the Louisiana Purchase away and leave the region under Spanish Control?--because I suspect that if the USA is so early a dominant player that it will not happen.]

Anti-butterflying the Louisiana Purchase when the USA get Canada in the ARW is not that hard to do, esp, if they got it because Quebec and Nova Scotia joined in the rebellion from the start. The strenghtened USA win the Franco-American War even more decisively, getting the French Caribbean, and a Napoleon engrossed in the Coalition Wars will be even more eager to reap money from land he can't otherwise exploit and France is most likely to lose eventually to the expansionist USA, one way or another.

And there is the part where the USA, with Canada Included, still has a large frontier including a Yukon gold rush. This means that we could be dealing with a USA with 150 Million People, thanks to the obvious changes in immigration this would create.

Yep, but this has very little effect to events in Europe, until the USA begin to project strategically outside the American continents in the 20th century, and when they do, they will project into Asia.

UK and USA won't be embittered over 1812, since that war only confirms the strategic result of the ARW. The USA will get the West Indies in 1812, but this just puts a seal to the essential outcome of the previous war. The British Empire has lost the North American continent. USA-UK relations slowly healed from losing the 13 colonies, they will heal from losing Quebec and Nova Scotia too, and Jamaica and the Bahamas as well.

The problem is there would be massive divergences at the strategic level if Britain is expelled from the New World. If anything, Britain has far less reason not to dabble in American affairs. The Union could threaten Canada in OTL, in this timeline the British have nothing much to lose and quite alot to gain.

Good point. But during the entire 1800s, the only moment that a British Empire could and would seriously threaten the USA is during the ACW. During the War of 1812, and with the USA having hold a loyal Canada for three decades, far too much of the British strength is drained by the Napoleonic Wars, and the USA are too strong (esp. if complete victory in the ARW makes them more expansionistic, so they enter the war with a good regular Army, Navy, and Militias), not to make it another American victory.

The ACW is indeed a critical point, but the British were still quite reluctant to get involved in the Civil War, and will more so if they lack a stretegic foothold on the continent. It is not too difficult to find some butterfly (a slightly delayed Sepoy rebellion, a war with China) that prevents British intervention (the French might well go alone, but they will get their asses on a plate even more thoroughly than in Mexico, and this could help explain their inertia in 1866-67 while Grossdeutchsland forms, along with Bismarck bribing with false promises over Luxembourg and Belgium) in the first phase of the ACW. After Lincoln issues the Emancipation proclaim, fighting to safeguard slavery becomes politically untenable for the British.

Admittedly, one could also easily write a variant of the TL where Britain intervenes in ACW, depending on which butterflies one chooses. Also, provided you make Canada a long-term USA possession, it is feasible to write a TL where the Union wins the war anyway, albeit with more effort, time, and bloodshed, since the naval blockade of the Confederacy was not essential to its defeat. Franco-British intervention in the ACW would indeed cement a long-term enimity to these powers, but this would only make the USA all the more friendly to Germany, and surely wouldn't butterfly the unification of Italy and Germany. This USA would most likely not intervene against Germany, but choose to stay neutral anyway if Germany and UK are allied, or with the right provocation declare war on Entente Britain.

Also, if the Confederacy gets formed, this would not still change the outcome in Europe. This TL would become a broad repetition of Turtledove's TL-191, with a SuperGermany-USA-Italy-Hungary pitted against a UK-France-Russia-Confederacy, where Germany and the USA would still win the World Wars albeit with an effort and bloodshed comparable to OTL. The Confederacy would eventually get reabsorbed in the USA, if not in WWI then in WWII, and Germany would still win WWI. With Italy in the CPs, and provided the Ottoman Empire does not go Entente, the strategic balance is tipped enough that Russia collapses in 1916-17 and France is overrun in 1917-18.

Further more in OTL the Monroe doctrine was enforced by the Royal Navy. The British felt they could share the Western Hemisphere, maintaining informal Empire in the south and generally letting the USA get on with their own affairs. Having been expelled from the North America, there may well be a considerable ambition to establish a concrete dominion in South America to prevent the USA claiming the lot. Argentina for example. The British felt they could comprimise with the USA because the gains were minor and the losses were potentially considerable. Well here you have removed any possible losses for Britain. Britain therefore has a far more pressing desire to see the USA is constrained everywhere; a second Russia if you will. That means the situation of OTL where the USA has considerable influence in Asia is likely quashed. It would be considered too dangerous to permit.

This is true provided that the British do not refocus their attetion to rebuild an Empire in Asia first and foremost, and get engrossed in pulling South East Asia and China in their sphere of influence, which is the most natural outcome of getting expelled from North America. Later they will get Africa to expand into as well.

South America was never that vital to their interests as to risk a third war with the USA in order to grab new colonies in South America. The USA may well not mind British economic penetration in Chile, Argentina or Brazil during the early-mid 1800s like they did not mind it OTL. If any, they are rather more likely to expand into Mexico, Central America, and northern Spanish South America first, so an informal division of the continent might establish.

If the UK and USA clash during the ACW, see above.

Of course, the USA will eventually resent British influence in southern South America and wish to expel them by the close of 1800s. The UK might retire in good order, thinking the gain not worth the losses, or they might fight a war over Chile or Argentina in the 1880s-1890s (as they almost did over Venezuela) which would end in a stalemate unfavourable to the British, as the USA by now is too strong by land (and only needs to decide in order to build a strong Navy). For the outcome of this in WWI, see above.

 

[General Zod]

January-April 1915: Winter Franco-Russian offensives in Alsace-Lorraine-Luxemburg and Galicia fail. France and Russia lobby and bribe the governments of Belgium and Romania to enter war on their side or allow transit on their territory. Romania is promised Transylvania and Belgium Luxembourg and Eupen-Malmedy. Romania agrees, Belgium remains uncommitted.

April 1915: Romania mobilizes and declares war on Hungary. The Romanian army crosses the Southern Carpatian mountains and invades Transylvania. French army crosses the boundary of Belgium. The Belgian government after much hesitation denies free transit to France. Waloonias welcome the French, but the Flemish oppose the invasion: widespread grassroots insurgence arises in Belgain Flanders to oppose the passage of the French army.

May 1915: After initial advances, counterattacks by Hungarians and Bulgarians with German and Italian help stop the Romanians. Already suspicious with Russian encroachments in Afghanistan, Britain takes issue with violation of Belgian neutrality and brutal French reprisals agains the Flemish and declares war on France and Russia. Fearful for its own territorial integrity, Netherlands asks for protection of Germany and Britain and opens its territory to Allied troops. German troops enter Belgian Luxemburg and Liege and rush to meet advancing French armies. British and Russian troops clash in Afghanistan and Persia.

June 1915: Romanian army is repelled to its borders and loses Dobruja. British Expeditionary Force lands in Netherlands and marches south to meet the french and link with the Germans. Flemish insurgence delays the French army (the war crimes of France against the Flemish become a major propaganda issue of the Allies, the much-publicized "rape of Flanders") and they are stopped near the Dutch-German border by the advancing Anglo-German forces. Allied British-German-Italian fleets defeat the French fleet off the coasts of Brittany and Corsica. France and Russia are put under tight naval blockade, which effectively ends any possibility supplying French troops in the colonies and seriously cripples Franco-Russian commerce, albeit the French are able to smuggle some through neutral Spain.

July-August 1915: Hungarian-Bulgarian two-pronged offensives break the Romanian army and overrun Wallachia. Bucharest falls. The Russian army occupies Moldavia. Russia occupies Teheran, but its advance in Afghanistan is encircled and destroyed. Netherlands declares war on France. Flemish exiles set up a secessionist government. The Belgian front stabilizes but the French are overstretched. Italian troops Italians occupt Tunisia and advance into Algeria, Anglo-German troops occupy Morocco and French Equatorial Africa.

September-October 1915: German-Hungarian offensive in Poland and Galicia and British landings in Lithuania expel the Russians from Russian Poland and Lithuania. The Allies occupy Algeria, Ciad, and Niger.

November 1915: Allied powers agree on unified commands for the Western and Eastern theaters. They enter talks with Sweden and Japan about an alliance.

 

[Blue Max]

January-April 1915: Winter Franco-Russian offensives in Alsace-Lorraine-Luxemburg and Galicia fail. France and Russia lobby and bribe the governments of Belgium and Romania to enter war on their side or allow transit on their territory. Romania is promised Transylvania and Belgium Luxembourg and Eupen-Malmedy. Romania agrees, Belgium remains uncommitted.

April 1915: Romania mobilizes and declares war on Hungary. The Romanian army crosses the Southern Carpatian mountains and invades Transylvania. French army crosses the boundary of Belgium. The Belgian government after much hesitation denies free transit to France. Waloonias welcome the French, but the Flemish oppose the invasion: widespread grassroots insurgence arises in Belgain Flanders to oppose the passage of the French army.

May 1915: After initial advances, counterattacks by Hungarians and Bulgarians with German and Italian help stop the Romanians. Already suspicious with Russian encroachments in Afghanistan, Britain takes issue with violation of Belgian neutrality and brutal French reprisals agains the Flemish and declares war on France and Russia. Fearful for its own territorial integrity, Netherlands asks for protection of Germany and Britain and opens its territory to Allied troops. German troops enter Belgian Luxemburg and Liege and rush to meet advancing French armies. British and Russian troops clash in Afghanistan and Persia.

June 1915: Romanian army is repelled to its borders and loses Dobruja. British Expeditionary Force lands in Netherlands and marches south to meet the french and link with the Germans. Flemish insurgence delays the French army (the war crimes of France against the Flemish become a major propaganda issue of the Allies, the much-publicized "rape of Flanders") and they are stopped near the Dutch-German border by the advancing Anglo-German forces. Allied British-German-Italian fleets defeat the French fleet off the coasts of Brittany and Corsica. France and Russia are put under tight naval blockade, which effectively ends any possibility supplying French troops in the colonies and seriously cripples Franco-Russian commerce, albeit the French are able to smuggle some through neutral Spain.

July-August 1915: Hungarian-Bulgarian two-pronged offensives break the Romanian army and overrun Wallachia. Bucharest falls. The Russian army occupies Moldavia. Russia occupies Teheran, but its advance in Afghanistan is encircled and destroyed. Netherlands declares war on France. Flemish exiles set up a secessionist government. The Belgian front stabilizes but the French are overstretched. Italian troops Italians occupt Tunisia and advance into Algeria, Anglo-German troops occupy Morocco and French Equatorial Africa.

September-October 1915: German-Hungarian offensive in Poland and Galicia and British landings in Lithuania expel the Russians from Russian Poland and Lithuania. The Allies occupy Algeria, Ciad, and Niger.

November 1915: Allied powers agree on unified commands for the Western and Eastern theaters. They enter talks with Sweden and Japan about an alliance.

You are moving a bit too quickly on some of these fronts. Russia would not get swiftly ejected when its armies are still more than equal to German forces against them. In addition, the point of a Romanian-Russian alliance would be to place Russian troops in Romanian territory; ergo, Romania would not quickly fall.

You should add something about Japan mobilizing in 1915, under terms of its alliance. The Japanese enjoy getting a perfect blow against an enemy, and Russia's Eastern Front is probably open to such a blow.

I forecast these outcomes on every angle of the fighting:

South-Western Front (France vs. Italy)--Italy slowly loses, like WW1.
Western Front (France, Belgian allies vs. UK, Germany)--Royal Navy is going to start presenting itself as a real menace, landing marines and raiding the French coastline. This will draw away French forces and allow the Germans a stunning victory.
Eastern Front (Russia vs Germany & Hungary)--If Russia can not coordinate its armies decisively, it is going to get slowly beaten backward.
Central Asian Front (UK Vs Russia)--Look for the UK to grind ahead here, limited by hard terrain more than the Russian Army.
Far East (UK + Japan Vs Russia)--The first waves of the war will favor Japan; which will quickly dominate the Oceans. But the Russian Army is likely to smash into Manchuria if enough troops are available. I doubt Japan would act unless it was ready, however.

Your timetable is fast. Also, I think that France would go for Belgium as a strategic effort to encircle German positions, and that Romania would hold Bucharest with Russian help for some time.

 

[General Zod]

I've rewritten the 1914-1915 TL to slow it down a bit militarly, even if I've decided to anticipate British entry into the war to late 1914 in order to a) equalize the burden of the war on UK and Germany b) make more room for integration of Allied operations in 1915-16. I want this war over by 1917, in order to limit war exaustion. To do so, I've anticipated the outbreak of the war one month and stated that France tries her big Belgian gambit in Fall 1914, after she finds stalemated and slowly pushed back in AL. Theoretically, they might have tried one more offensive in AL if they were particularly stubborn, but it is conceivable that they could have sought for alternate solutions after the complete, bloody failure of Plan XVII and gone for Reverse Schliffen.

Admittedly, it is somehow tricky to define what the reaction of Belgium would have been like to France's attempts to lure them on her side. if they have gone for a blunt ultimatum, they would have most likely gallantly resisted the French as they did with the Germans OTL. But this would have strengthened the national consciousness of Belgium after the war, whileas I prefer a solution that would advance my partition schemes after the war (with all due respect to national sensibilities involved, I honestly regard Belgium, like Canada and Austria, as mistakes of history). So I've gone for a more ambigous solution which still paints the Belgian people as a victim of French brutality whileas ti casts severe doubts of the worthiness of the 1839 solution in the eyes of the Allies.

I've postponed the big beating back of Russia in 1916, they take some significant hits from Japan in 1915, and I've tried to slow the fall of Romania a bit, but honestly, once they are checked, IMO the fall of Wallachia was just a matter of time, they were in a terrible strategic position once the Allied get their act together and attack them on two fronts.

I freely conced that in the present TL draft I've pretty much ignored the Central Asian front. Truth is, I have no good idea on how the war in Afghanistan and Persia (I assume the latter, albeit nominally neutral, quickly becomes a battlefield like Manchuria). Any suggestions for 1915 & 1916 ?

Japanese are indeed able to land a pretty good initial backstab on the Russians, getting Manchuria and Primorsk.

As it concerns French Schliffen, I assume it ought to reap good territorial advantages (namely, the conquest of Belgium) but to fail its real goal (crippling Germany with loss of Rhineland). There are several justifications to do so: Flemish insurgence, UK and Netherlands entering the war, hastily redeployed German and Italian troops from AL and Alps and the BEF to cover the breach. France will however gain Belgium, which will ameliorate her economy a bit. I got this nice idea of Aachen, the cradle of Carolingian Europe, being successfully defended by Dutch, Germans, British, and Italians against the Napoleonic hordes. It seems to me like a good founding myth for European unity in the future. In opinion, this, and the French "rape of Flanders" will the big propaganda indictments against the Entente ITTL.

Do you have any good suggestion about how hard the naval blockade is going to be for France and Russia ? Tentatively I assume that it will be bad on French-Russian economy as on OTL Germany, even if they won't really starve.

Of course, 1916 ought to be the year when the Allies really put their act together and exploit their advantages, combining German land efficiency, Hungarian-Italian numbers, and British landings to put one of their enemies on her knees, more or less. I was much uncertain whether they would beat down Russia or France first, but tentatively, I'd say that Russia looks like a more promising option, since trench warfare never became a crippling obstacle on the Eastern front. Your opinion ?

A couple of minor ideas about the teams: now that the British and the Germans are on one side, could Sweden be lured to enter war on their side, to push the Russians out of Finland, or are they too committed to pacifism ? Militarly, this wouldn't change much, I assume, but politically I would make Sweden closer to future European unity.

What's Turkey going to do ? At which point are they going to backstab the Russians, if ever ? Any possibility they could be bribed on the Entente's side ?

A couple of minor ideas about pre-war minors: if UK and Germany are friends before the war, doesn't the separation between Norway and Sweden become less likely, as the two halves are no more pulled towards antagonistic great powers ? And likewise, is a royal marriage between Queen Wilhelmina and the Crown Prince of Germany feasible ? Or maybe between their children ?

Russia would not get swiftly ejected when its armies are still more than equal to German forces against them.

Moved this to 1916.

In addition, the point of a Romanian-Russian alliance would be to place Russian troops in Romanian territory; ergo, Romania would not quickly fall.

I've given them 2-3 extra months, but honestly, IMO the outcome should not change, the CPs here have even more advantages than OTL, even if the Russians redeploy in Romania.

You should add something about Japan mobilizing in 1915, under terms of its alliance. The Japanese enjoy getting a perfect blow against an enemy, and Russia's Eastern Front is probably open to such a blow.

Say goodbye to Vladivostok, Ivan.

South-Western Front (France vs. Italy)--Italy slowly loses, like WW1.

What's this thing with Italy and you ?

They were not the pussies of 1940. Their WWI Army is of comparable quality to France, and if anything, it is the French that should slowly lose, as they are overstretched to face three great powers on three borders.

And despite Caporetto, their one bad blunder, it is Italy that slowly but surely brought A-H on their knees.

Western Front (France, Belgian allies vs. UK, Germany)--Royal Navy is going to start presenting itself as a real menace, landing marines and raiding the French coastline. This will draw away French forces and allow the Germans a stunning victory.

Eastern Front (Russia vs Germany & Hungary)--If Russia can not coordinate its armies decisively, it is going to get slowly beaten backward.

Maybe not so slowly (say a year) if you combine Germany mass manouver and British landings.

Anyway, I'm uncertain whether to have France fall first, by combining Royal Navy attacks with coordinated land pressure on three fronts in order to overstretch their forces thin so much that a trench breakthrough occurs, or to have Russia go down first, when they gradually lose Poland, the Baltcis, and Ukraine to the strategy above. Anyway, once an Entente nation falls, the other is quickly (say, six months) defeated with these strategies.

As of now, I'm slightly more favourable to the Russian option.

Central Asian Front (UK Vs Russia)--Look for the UK to grind ahead here, limited by hard terrain more than the Russian Army.

How much ahead ?

Far East (UK + Japan Vs Russia)--The first waves of the war will favor Japan; which will quickly dominate the Oceans. But the Russian Army is likely to smash into Manchuria if enough troops are available. I doubt Japan would act unless it was ready, however.

Once the front stabilizes on the Amur, what's going to happen ?

 

[General Zod]

March 14, 1914: Bulgaria, with support from Hungary, decides to grab Macedonia from Serbia. On this day, Serbia is presented with demands for the immediate cessation of this region. It declines.

March 21, 1914: Bulgaria mobilizes against the Serbian Border. Serbia mobilizes as well, and, unexpectedly, so does Romania.

March 23, 1914: In a quiet meeting in Berlin, Kaiser Wilhelm summons the leading members of German nobility--the Princes and Kings of smaller German States, including King Ferdinand of Austria and Hungary. As much a matter of formality as well as an issue of state, the important portion of the gathering, just two hours out of the six hour meeting, discusses the German and Hungarian position on the Bulgarian-Serbian crisis. Although some reiterate variations of Bismarck's predictions that some Balkan Incident would trigger a global war, the ruling elites are pleasantly reminded that should the situation come to that, the German-Hungarian Armies are fully capable of crushing France in the same great way as it happened in 1870. With their support in hand, Germany's position is finalized--Germany will support Bulgaria, and the Entente would either read the writing on the wall and let it happen, or they will lose a quick war, just as 1870 had been before.

March 25, 1914: Serbia formally requests Russian Assistance. A firefight breaks out on the Serbian-Bulgarian border, later revealed to be caused by Serbia.

March 26, 1914: Russia begins to mobilize. Germany protests; the German Army begins to counter mobilize.

March 27, 1914: Unexpectedly, France begins to mobilize. The French idea is that they can finish their mobilization first, and press the advantage to grab and hold AL from Germany.

April 2, 1914: Bulgaria receives support for Germany for a Plebiscite of Macedonian Territory. Serbia responds by launching a surprise attack against Bulgaria, apparently with Russian Support.

April 10, 1914: With Russia still mobilizing, France attacks a fully mobilized Germany. The attack achieves local surprise, and France seizes Metz and Strasbourg.

April 11, 1914: Italy denounces France's surprise attack, begins to mobilize. France is forced to begin diverting reinforcements to protect its southern flank.

April 12, 1914: Russia and Germany do not declare war, but admit that a state of war exists between them.

April-May 1914: The French consolidate their hold on AL; resisting a hastily assembled German counterattack. France responds by building trenches to cover the area.

In the Eastern Front, the German Army is Forced to withdraw from Konigsberg and is in full retreat against a Russian enemy who outnumbers them 2:1 on some parts of the Front.

Another Front opens as Italy begins to attack and faces counter attack along the French Border.

The USA declare their strict neutrality in the war. Woodrow Wilson is too busy planning endless incursions in Latin America to seriously pay attention to European matters.

June 1914: The Miracle of Tannenburg. A Haphazard Russian Advance and rivalry between the Russian commanders means that the Russian advance is fragmented and vulnerable. Paul Von Hindenburg achieves one of the greatest victories in the war by smashing the Russian armies, despite their numerical superiority.

The fighting has already begun to spread to colonial engagements. Tunisia is hotly contested by Italy and France and Equatorial Africa by Germany and France.

Attacked from three sides (Hungary from the North, Bulgaria from the East, and Italy from the West, the latter sending an expedition corps across Montenegro and Albania), Serbia quickly collapses after two months of war, and it is occupied by the Allied powers, its entire army captured or destroyed.

July 14, 1914: The UK decides to formalize its control over Afghanistan; a move they know to be provocative, but Russia is in no position to refuse. Unfortunately, as UK forces begin moving into Afghanistan en masse, Russia begins to do the same.

July-September 1914: The French positions in AL are gradually pushed back. Despite their best efforts and a counterattack, France is unable to hold their gains. In the south, Italy is stalemated, advancing no more than 20 miles into French territory. And during this time, Russian forces are slowly being beaten backward by Germany.

To resolve this situation, France begins to plan a strategic diversion through Belgium by encircling the northern half of the German army and invading Rhineland. They begin to redeploy their forces against the border of Belgium and enter in secret talks with his government; they are promised Maastricht, the duchy of Luxemburg, and Eupen-Malmedy in exchange for free transit through their territory. The Belgian remain uncommitted.

Russia redeploys her forces against Hungary.

October-November 1914: After much hesitation, the government of Belgium decides to grant free access to France. The French army crosses the border of Belgium. However, widespread indignation over the violation of the country’s national integrity and neutrality explodes throughout the country, especially among the pro-German Flemish population. Widespread grassroots rebellion arises in Flanders and hastily assembled militias form to oppose the passage of the French army, while the Walloon split, some join the patriotic uprising but others welcome the French.

Germany stops advance on the AL front and redeploys forces to the Belgian border. Italy attacks on the Alps and sends some armies to the AL and Belgian fronts. Already suspicious with the Russian encroachments in Afghanistan, Britain takes issue with the violation of Belgian neutrality and declares war on the Entente. Fearful for their own territorial integrity, the Netherlands mobilize and side with the Alliance. The British Expeditionary Force lands in Netherlands and marches south with the Dutch army.

France is forced the expand its advance in Belgium to cover the threat from the north but it is delayed by Flemish insurgents (the war crimes of France against the Flemish become a major propaganda issue of the Allies, the much-publicized "rape of Flanders").

The Russian offensive in Galicia is stalemated after limited gains.

British and Russian armies clash in Afghanistan and Persia.

December 1914-February 1915: the French offensive in Belgium is stopped on the Antwerp-Maastricht-Malmedy line. The successful defense of Aachen by combined Allied forces is much celebrated as “defending the cradle of Europe against Napoleonic tyranny and Slavic barbarism”. Confronted with widespread anti-French insurgence and the growing ethnic and political polarization of the country, the government of Belgium resigns, and the King tries to flee the country, but he is captured and put under house arrest. Belgium is put under military occupation and a Walloon puppet government is set up by France. A government in exile is set up in London.

Allied British-German-Italian fleets defeat the French fleet off the coasts of Brittany and Corsica. France and Russia are put under tight naval blockade, which effectively curtails any supply for the French troops in the colonies and seriously cripples Franco-Russian commerce, albeit the French are able to smuggle some through neutral Spain.

Japan enters secret talks with Britain and her allies about fulfilling his alliance obligations. Agreement is reached for a land offensive in Spring and combined naval action; a Japanese sphere of influence in Inner and Outer Manchuria.

March-May 1915: the Western Front stabilizes in a near-continuous line of trenches from Antwerp to Cannes, only broken along the Swiss border, as various Allied and French offensives and counter-offensives fail to obtain a breakthrough.

At an Allied conference in Vienna, it is agreed to obviate the stalemate in Belgium and France by wearing down France with a war of attrition, naval blockade, and amphibious harassment, and to try and knock Russia out of the war by engaging her on multiple theaters. Unified Allied commands are created for the Western and Eastern fronts (under German leadership) and for the Allied navies (under British leadership). Germany, Britain, and Italy transfer forces on the Eastern front.

A second Russian offensive in Galicia fails.

Japan masses troops on the Yalu river and declares war on Russia. Japanese armies swarm Southern Manchuria: Mukden and Kirin fall, Ussurisyk and Vladivostok are encircled.
Allied fleets defeat the Russian Navy in the Black Sea and the Sea of Japan.

June-August 1915: A combined German-Hungarian offensive on the two-sides of the Poland-Galicia salient causes a strategic breakthrough, the destruction of four Russian armies, and a general Allied advance.

Japanese secure Harbin and Imam, Vladivostok surrenders. The Russian Army retreats beyond the Amur river.

Italian troops occupy Djibouti and Tunisia and advance into Algeria, Anglo-German troops occupy Morocco and French Equatorial Africa.

September-October 1915: The Russians are forced to withdraw from Poland, Lithuania, western two-thirds of Bielorussia, Volhynia, Galicia, and Western Podolia, to the Riga-Dvinsk-Bobruysk-Mozyr-Zhitomir-Proskurov-Czernowitz line and Dvina and Beresina rivers. The Tsar takes supreme command of the army.

Japan conquers Sakhalin Island.

The Allies occupy Algeria, Cyad, and Niger.

October-December 1915: Russia enters into secret talks with Romania, which is promised Transylvania in exchange for her entry into the war. Romania agrees.

Guinea, Upper Volta, and Ivory Coast are occupied by the Anglo-Germans.

March-April 1916: Romania mobilizes, open its border to Russian armies, and declares war on Hungary. The Romanian army and Russian forces cross the Southern Carpatian mountains and invades Transylvania. After initial gains, a Hungarian counterattack with German and Italian reinforcements stop the Romanians and the Russians.

Senegal and Mauritania are occupied by the Anglo-Germans.

May-June 1916: Despite their best efforts and Russian assistance, Romania is repelled to her borders and loses Dobruja.

July-August 1916 Combined German-Hungarian and Italo-Bulgarian offensives break the Russian-Romanian army and overrun Wallachia. Bucharest falls. Russian forces retreat to Moldavia.

September-October 1916: the British land at Odessa and the Allied armies in Moldavia renew their offensive. Three Russian armies are destroyed, the others are pushed beyond the Bug river. Romania is completely overrun and surrenders.

November-December 1916: the Eastern Front stabilizes as the Russians retreat beyond the Dnepr river.

Unrest in the civilian population and mutinies in the army grow in Russia because of the repeated military defeats, the heavy casualties, and the severe economic hardships caused by the blockade.

 

[JJohnson]

Excuse me, but I really cannot understand why you keep saying France is "isolated", when a basic assumption of the scenario is that the Franco-Russian Dual Entente is as rock-hard as the Italo-German-Hungarian Triple Alliance. An alliance with Russia is far, far, far, from isolation !!!!

France was truly isolated as long as Bismarck managed to keep Russia away from it, and UK was isolationistic. But even Bismarck could not have kept the balance between Russia and UK forever, sooner or later Germany would have been forced to choose a side. It only was the overwhelming political ineptitude of Billy and his cronies that they managed to alienate both.

Anyway, France and Russia can easily balance SuperGermany, Hungary, and Italy enough for either France or Russia to rush into war, of this I am sure. Now, barring exceptional Franco-Russian or exceptionally lousy CP generalship, it would most likely be a CP victory in the medium term. But it's not overwhelming. Mind it, Russia's WWI performance was way lousier than what was widely expected before the war.

I easily can see a scenario where the UK stays neutral, even if it is the nominal ally of Germany and Italy, they almost stayed out OTL if Germany hadn't invaded Belgium, they could stay out if the casus belli and the first moves of the war does not threaten Britain's vital interests (France does not invade Belgium first, Russia does not threaten Constantinople).

Also, you could have a scenario where the UK initially stays neutral, but then either France or Russia make a blunder, miscalculate the British reaction (like OTL Germany did with the USA), and Britain enter the war (see above). This would settle the issue of starting the war with UK on the Alliance's side, if not the concerns over the duration of the war. However, if UK enters the war later, when the "Marna crisis" has been survived by France, its impact will not be immediate, trench warfare means it will still take somewhat of a year for combined Anglo-German-Italian forces to wear it down.

SuperGermany and Italy vs. France alone would still be rather unbalanced, a repetition of TTL 1870 war. Overconfident Nappy III tried it and failed disastrously, later French leaders would seek and obtain the Russian alliance before a rematch, unless another foolhardy leader (Boulanger ?) seizes power.

No, I am still honestly persuaded that in order to address your apparent balance of power concerns, the best option is to keep Britain nominally neutral at the start, whether they enter the war later or not. This way, France and Russia can feel sufficiently confident to trigger the war. Maybe the trigger is such that UK does feel honor-bound to enter the way immediately. Albiet it is tricky to find one that doesos and still makes an decent case for Franco-Russian moral responsibility for the war.

Or again, they just miscalculate. OTL start of WWI was one huge pile of miscalculations. Absolutely nobody got it the way they had planned.

Or of it's really, really necessary, UK in the Entente. But I loathe it. It was the shoddy workamanship of William the Idiot and his cronies, and it is refreshing to see Germany act intelligent, for a change.

In a battle against France/Russia, that might be an opportunity for Germany to grab a bit more territory to add to East Prussia, like they did up to 1943 OTL, and perhaps set up a puppet/allied Polish state, and "repatriate" their Polish minorities in Posen and Silesian there.

As far as alliances for an alternate WWI, if we get rid of the ineptitude of Bismark's followers, get rid of Kaiser Wilhelm's cancer, and bring UK-DE closer, that could make way for a UK-DE-IT alliance. This would be the Groß-Deutschland from the annexation of Austria/Bohemia in 1866. I'm becoming a fan of this version of Germany over merely 1871 Germany, and seeing Germany as an ally would likely be more beneficial to Europe in the long run than France (IMO).

My question in this timeline is where would the Ottomans fall? I can understand that Hungary would ally with Germany, considering their histories, but I'm unclear about the rest of Europe, specifically the eastern side. Would this timeline still produce an OE-FR-RU "Central Powers" vs. the new UK-DE-IT alliance, with a late-arriving US?

James

 

[General Zod]

In a battle against France/Russia, that might be an opportunity for Germany to grab a bit more territory to add to East Prussia, like they did up to 1943 OTL, and perhaps set up a puppet/allied Polish state, and "repatriate" their Polish minorities in Posen and Silesian there.

Quite probably. Besides the territorial changes vs. France that we discussed upthreads, I see Germany make a long-term bid for assimilation vs. Netherlands, Flanders, and the Baltic duchies, as well as confining the Poles into Congress Poland once for all, and complete Germanization of Western Prussia, Posen, and Silesia. And persuade the Czech they ought to have become Germans since the Middle Ages already

As far as alliances for an alternate WWI, if we get rid of the ineptitude of Bismark's followers, get rid of Kaiser Wilhelm's cancer, and bring UK-DE closer, that could make way for a UK-DE-IT alliance. This would be the Groß-Deutschland from the annexation of Austria/Bohemia in 1866. I'm becoming a fan of this version of Germany over merely 1871 Germany, and seeing Germany as an ally would likely be more beneficial to Europe in the long run than France (IMO).

It would be Kaiser Frederick III' cancer. But I share your judgement 100%.

My question in this timeline is where would the Ottomans fall? I can understand that Hungary would ally with Germany, considering their histories, but I'm unclear about the rest of Europe, specifically the eastern side. Would this timeline still produce an OE-FR-RU "Central Powers" vs. the new UK-DE-IT alliance, with a late-arriving US?

Well, so far, the natural geopolitical outcome would be for the OE to side with DE and UK, but I wholeheartedly agree that it make the TL more interesting (and lets the OE be properly kicked out of Europe) if a butterfly makes them side with the Entente instead. So far, I have a WWI butterfly after previous neutrality as the reason to go Entente, since I have not yet found a good reason to make them choose the FR-RU alliance before.

Besides the partial outline above, I've completed the WWI TL till the surrender of the French in late 1917, the last Entente power to fall. Then I've gone backwards and tried to knit events since the second 1866 PoD. I've a rough tentative outline (a set of ideas actually) for the 1774-1860 American history and one somewhat more defined for the 1866-1914 European history (beginning year of WWI is provisional and heavily subject to change depending on development of previous events, but the main strategic course of the war should be fixed once the main alliances are defined). Currently I'm engrossed to define the first DE-IT vs. FR war, also known as "Napoleon III's folly" and the butterflies thereof.

If you wish to see something, this is the current outline for the WWI (again, years and some details are subject to change due to previous, yet undeveloped events ITL, but main line-ups are not). Middle Eastern and Central Asian fronts still undeveloped due to my lack of expertise. Also post-war events like the Russian Civil War, the partition of the Ottoman Empire, and the French Revolution still lack development.

March 14, 1914: Bulgaria, with support from Hungary, decides to grab Macedonia from Serbia. On this day, Serbia is presented with demands for the immediate cessation of this region. It declines.

March 21, 1914: Bulgaria mobilizes against the Serbian Border. Serbia mobilizes as well, and, unexpectedly, so does Romania.

March 23, 1914: In a quiet meeting in Berlin, Kaiser Wilhelm summons the leading members of German nobility--the Princes and Kings of smaller German States, including King Ferdinand of Austria and Hungary. As much a matter of formality as well as an issue of state, the important portion of the gathering, just two hours out of the six hour meeting, discusses the German and Hungarian position on the Bulgarian-Serbian crisis. Although some reiterate variations of Bismarck's predictions that some Balkan Incident would trigger a global war, the ruling elites are pleasantly reminded that should the situation come to that, the German-Hungarian Armies are fully capable of crushing France in the same great way as it happened in 1870. With their support in hand, Germany's position is finalized--Germany will support Bulgaria, and the Entente would either read the writing on the wall and let it happen, or they will lose a quick war, just as 1870 had been before.

March 25, 1914: Serbia formally requests Russian Assistance. A firefight breaks out on the Serbian-Bulgarian border, later revealed to be caused by Serbia.

March 26, 1914: Russia begins to mobilize. Germany protests; the German Army begins to counter mobilize.

March 27, 1914: Unexpectedly, France begins to mobilize. The French idea is that they can finish their mobilization first, and press the advantage to grab and hold AL from Germany.

April 2, 1914: Bulgaria receives support for Germany for a Plebiscite of Macedonian Territory. Serbia responds by launching a surprise attack against Bulgaria, apparently with Russian Support.

April 10, 1914: With Russia still mobilizing, France attacks a fully mobilized Germany. The attack achieves local surprise, and France seizes Metz and Strasbourg.

April 11, 1914: Italy denounces France's surprise attack, begins to mobilize. France is forced to begin diverting reinforcements to protect its southern flank.

April 12, 1914: Russia and Germany do not declare war, but admit that a state of war exists between them.

April-May 1914: The French consolidate their hold on AL; resisting a hastily assembled German counterattack. France responds by building trenches to cover the area.

In the Eastern Front, the German Army is forced to withdraw from Konigsberg and is in full retreat against a Russian enemy who outnumbers them 2:1 on some parts of the Front.

Another Front opens as Italy begins to attack and faces counter attack along the French Border.

Acting on his own initiative, the aggressive commander of the Russian Baltic Fleet, Admiral Essen, who thinks it is highly probable that Sweden go to war, confronts the Swedish navy at Gotland with the Baltic Fleet to demand that they abandon that base and not come back. The Swedish refuse and a fight ensue. Angered Swedish parliament heeds the advice of the King to join the side of Germany and mobilizes to “curb naked acts of aggression by the barbaric Czarist autocracy”.

The USA declares their strict neutrality in the war.

June 1914: The Miracle of Tannenburg. A Haphazard Russian Advance and rivalry between the Russian commanders means that the Russian advance is fragmented and vulnerable. Paul Von Hindenburg achieves one of the greatest victories in the war by smashing the Russian armies, despite their numerical superiority.

The fighting has already begun to spread to colonial engagements. Tunisia is hotly contested by Italy and France and Equatorial Africa by Germany and France.

Attacked from three sides (Hungary from the North, Bulgaria from the East, and Italy from the West, the latter sending an expedition corps across Montenegro and Albania), Serbia quickly collapses after two months of war, and it is occupied by the Allied powers, its entire army captured or destroyed.

July 14, 1914: The UK decides to formalize its control over Afghanistan; a move they know to be provocative, but Russia is in no position to refuse. Unfortunately, as UK forces begin moving into Afghanistan en masse, Russia begins to do the same.

July-September 1914: The French positions in AL are gradually pushed back. Despite their best efforts and a counterattack, France is unable to hold their gains. In the south, Italy is stalemated, advancing no more than 20 miles into French territory. And during this time, Russian forces are slowly being beaten backward by Germany.

To resolve this situation, France begins to plan a strategic diversion through Belgium by encircling the northern half of the German army and invading Rhineland. They begin to redeploy their forces against the border of Belgium and enter in secret talks with his government; they are promised Maastricht, the duchy of Luxemburg, and Eupen-Malmedy in exchange for free transit through their territory. The Belgian remain uncommitted. Russia redeploys her forces against Hungary.

Sweden occupies the Aland isles.

October-November 1914: After much hesitation, the government of Belgium decides to grant free access to France. The French army crosses the border of Belgium. However, widespread indignation over the violation of the country’s national integrity and neutrality explodes throughout the country, especially among the pro-German Flemish population. Widespread grassroots rebellion arises in Flanders and hastily assembled militias form to oppose the passage of the French army, while the Walloon split, some join the patriotic uprising but others welcome the French.

Germany stops advance on the AL front and redeploys forces to the Belgian border. Italy attacks on the Alps and sends some armies to the AL and Belgian fronts. Already suspicious with the Russian encroachments in Afghanistan, Britain takes issue with the violation of Belgian neutrality and declares war on the Entente. Fearful for their own territorial integrity, the Netherlands mobilize and side with the Alliance. The British Expeditionary Force lands in Netherlands and marches south with the Dutch army.

France is forced to expand its advance in Belgium to cover the threat from the north but it is delayed by Flemish insurgents (the war crimes of France against the Flemish become a major propaganda issue of the Allies, the much-publicized "rape of Flanders").

The Russian offensive in Galicia is stalemated after limited gains.

British and Russian armies clash in Afghanistan and Persia.

December 1914-February 1915: the French offensive in Belgium is stopped on the Antwerp-Maastricht-Malmedy line. The successful defense of Aachen by combined Allied forces is much celebrated as “defending the cradle of Europe against Napoleonic tyranny and Slavic barbarism”. Confronted with widespread anti-French insurgence and the growing ethnic and political polarization of the country, the government of Belgium resigns, and the King tries to flee the country, but he is captured and put under house arrest. Belgium is put under military occupation and a Walloon puppet government is set up by France. A government in exile is set up in London.

Allied British-German-Italian fleets defeat the French fleet off the coasts of Brittany and Corsica. France and Russia are put under tight naval blockade, which effectively curtails any supply for the French troops in the colonies and seriously cripples Franco-Russian commerce, albeit the French are able to smuggle some through neutral Spain.

Japan enters secret talks with Britain and her allies about fulfilling his alliance obligations. Agreement is reached for a land offensive in spring and combined naval action; a Japanese sphere of influence in Inner and Outer Manchuria.

March-May 1915: the Western Front stabilizes in a near-continuous line of trenches from Antwerp to Cannes, only broken along the Swiss border, as various Allied and French offensives and counter-offensives fail to obtain a breakthrough.

At an Allied conference in Vienna, it is agreed to obviate the stalemate in Belgium and France by wearing down France with a war of attrition, naval blockade, and amphibious harassment, and to try and knock Russia out of the war by engaging her on multiple theaters. Unified Allied commands are created for the Western and Eastern fronts (under German leadership) and for the Allied navies (under British leadership). Germany, Britain, and Italy transfer forces on the Eastern front.

A second Russian offensive in Galicia fails.

Japan masses troops on the Yalu river and declares war on Russia. Japanese armies swarm Southern Manchuria: Mukden and Kirin fall, Ussurisyk and Vladivostok are encircled.

Allied fleets defeat the Russian Navy in the Black Sea and the Sea of Japan.

German-Swedish forces land in Vaasa and cut the railroad which supplies Russian troops on the Swedish front.

June-August 1915: A combined German-Hungarian offensive on the two-sides of the Poland-Galicia salient causes a strategic breakthrough, the destruction of four Russian armies, and a general Allied advance.

Japanese secure Harbin and Imam, Vladivostok surrenders. The Russian Army evacuates Primorsky and retreats beyond the Amur river.

A Swedish offensive on the border with Finland breaks through the Russian forces in Kemi. A Russian general retreat from Northern and Western Finland is enacted.

Italian troops occupy Djibouti and Tunisia and advance into Algeria; Anglo-German troops occupy Morocco and French Equatorial Africa.

In order to curb Allied naval activities in the Black Sea, Entente diplomats successfully lobby Ottoman ministers with bribes, subsidies, promises of territorial gains in Egypt and Persia, and limited cessions in the Caucasus. The Ottoman Empire closes navigation in the Bosporus and the Dardanelles to warships. Outraged Allies, seeing their operations in the Black Sea curtailed, send a fleet to demand reopening of the Straits. Tensions escalate and a naval skirmish accidentally takes place which sinks some Turkish warships. The Ottoman Empire declares war on the Allied powers.

September-October 1915: The Russians are forced to withdraw from Poland, Lithuania, western two-thirds of Belarus, Volhynia, Galicia, and Western Podolia, to the Riga-Dvinsk-Bobruysk-Mozyr-Zhitomir-Proskurov-Czernowitz line and Dvina and Berezina rivers. The Tsar takes supreme command of the army.

The Finland front stabilizes in Tampere.

Japan conquers Sakhalin Island.

Greece mobilizes and declares war on the Ottoman Empire.

The Allies occupy Algeria, Chad, and Niger.

November-December 1915: Russia enters into secret talks with Romania, which is promised Transylvania in exchange for her entry into the war. Romania agrees.

Guinea, Upper Volta, and Ivory Coast are occupied by the Anglo-Germans.

An Allied multinational force is landed in Alexandropolis. Bulgarian and Greek forces engage the Ottomans in Eastern Thrace and slowly press forward.

January-February 1916: The Edirne province of eastern Thrace is occupied by the Allied armies.

March-April 1916: Romania mobilizes, opens its border to Russian armies, and declares war on Hungary. The Romanian army and Russian forces cross the Southern Carpathian mountains and invades Transylvania. After initial gains, a Hungarian counterattack with German and Italian reinforcements stops the Romanians and the Russians.

Senegal and Mauritania are occupied by the Anglo-Germans.

May-June 1916: Despite their best efforts and Russian assistance, Romania is repelled to her borders and loses Dobruja.

Successful Allied landings in Gallipoli and later at Sarkoy and Tekirdag outflank the Ottoman front on the Hyrabolu river. Turkish forces evacuate the Kirkareli and Tekirdag provinces. Allied warships control the Sea of Marmara. Constantinople is besieged.

A Japan offensive forces the Amur river at Dzalinda and cuts the Transiberian railway.

July-August 1916: Combined German-Hungarian and Italo-Bulgarian offensives break the Russian-Romanian army and overrun Wallachia. Bucharest falls. Russian forces retreat to Moldavia.

Swedish landings in Turku outflank the Finland front in Tampere. The Russian army retreats on the Hudenvese to cover Helsinki. Russian presence in Finland is restricted to the southeastern strip.

Allied landings in Kanakkale and Tuzla secure the Asian side of the Straits. Allied fleets force the Bosporus.
General Japanese offensive breaks the Amur line. The Russian forces retreat from Outer Manchuria.

September-October 1916: the British land at Odessa and the Allied armies in Moldavia renew their offensive. Three Russian armies are destroyed; the others are pushed beyond the Bug river. Romania is completely overrun and surrenders.

Constantinople surrenders. The Ottoman Empire signs an armistice.

The Far Eastern front is stabilized on the Stanovoy Mountains.

November-December 1916: the Eastern Front stabilizes as the Russians retreat beyond the Dnepr river.

Unrest grows in Russia about the repeated military defeats, the heavy casualties, and the severe economic hardships caused by the blockade.

February-April 1917: Revolution erupts in Russia. The Czar is deposed. The Duma establishes a Provisional Government. A rival power center develops in the All-Russian Congress of Soviets. The Russian Army collapses.

Armistice talks are started but break down when Russian representatives reject the Allies’ demands (independence for Finland, the Baltic duchies, Belarus, Ukraine, and Poland).

Allied armies start a general advance on the Eastern front and occupy Latvia, Estonia, Helsinki, Vyborg, Karelia, Pskov, eastern Belarus, Smolensk, Bryansk, Kursk, eastern Ukraine, Kharkov, Donetsk, and Rostov.

The provisional Government of Russia resigns itself to the inevitable and signs the Armistice of Brest-Litovsk, which gives up the control of Poland, the Baltic duchies, Finland, Karelia, Belarus, Ukraine, Transcaucasia, and Inner/Outer Manchuria to the Allies.

May 1917: Peace talks are started between France and the Allies but soon break down as France balks at the harsh peace terms proposed by the Allies (return of Alsace-Lorraine, Nice, Savoy, and Belgium, cession of French Flanders, Lorraine, eastern Provence, Corsica, almost all French colonies, heavy reparations, radical demilitarization).

The Allies send an ultimatum to Spain and ask her to close her borders to French commerce. Spain agrees. French industry is completely cut off from foreign commodities. The Allies move troops to the Western front.

June-September 1917: Massive offensives are unleashed by the Allies in Belgium, Alsace-Lorraine, and the Alps. Allied fleets bomb the ports of Calais, Dunkirk, Boulogne, Ostend, St. Valery, Dieppe, and Le Havre, and troops are landed to occupy these ports.

After three months of heavy fighting, the overstretched and weary French armies collapse and multiple breakthroughs occur at Antwerp, Liege, Metz-Verdun, Nancy, Chambery, Grenoble, and Frejus. A general French retreat starts.

October-November 1917: Bruxelles, Namur, Rheims, Chaumont, Grenoble, Toulon, fall to the Allies.

The Allied armies advancing from the occupied Flemish ports and from Champagne occupy Amiens and Compiegne, and encircle the French armies retreating from Belgium. Dijon, Lyon, Marseille fall.

Paris is besieged. The French President and government flee to Bordeaux, resign and flee to Spain. A caretaker government takes over and offers surrender.