Challenge: Reverse Versailles
- Thread starter General Zod
- Start date
General Zod
Banned
Possible destinations: Ireland (which will rather intensify sectional strife further down the line), South Africa (which will significantly boost the white and English element of the dominion in the next century).
General Zod
Banned
Broadly speaking, no. History of Germany and Italy really diverges in 1866.
I've been tempted to insert partition of Belgium according to the Talleyrand plan in 1831 in the TL, but I'm not yet sure whether this fits with the main PoDs or not.
General Zod
Banned
I was wondering, assuming that the Netherlands are allowed to annex Belgian and the Dunkirk district of French Flanders, would they consent to give up neutrality, and accept close poltical-economic-military links with the German Empire ?
Could the rest of the French Flanders and West Wallonia joined to set up a separate Wallon state ?
Could the rest of the French Flanders and West Wallonia joined to set up a separate Wallon state ?
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Alright Zod, I've been trying to figure this out, and thanks for answering my question about the colonies, but this won't work.
Namely, your Yankwank screws up any chance of a perceivably strong British Empire. So as much as the UK overcompensates for getting the crap kicked out of them in the Americas, Canada was still a better, more "civilized" base than India and the Cape ever were...
So how 'bout this for your US: The US annexes the Maritimes, the Niagara Peninsula, and maybe more of the Oregon Territory. Leads to a weaker, but not as defeated UK...
Namely, your Yankwank screws up any chance of a perceivably strong British Empire. So as much as the UK overcompensates for getting the crap kicked out of them in the Americas, Canada was still a better, more "civilized" base than India and the Cape ever were...
So how 'bout this for your US: The US annexes the Maritimes, the Niagara Peninsula, and maybe more of the Oregon Territory. Leads to a weaker, but not as defeated UK...
Actually, I'd disagree, somewhat. If the Cape is acquired, so that the UELs can go there, that would mean that Britain's route to India, and the East Indies, is more secure. Better British penetration of India, and somewhat stronger British penetration of the East Indies (which could set up for a more British-favourable Anglo-Dutch Treaty) would balance it, somewhat, as would less troubles with the Boers.
Look at this from the other way. How does the UK look if they get curbstomped by the colonial scum? It could effect the formations of the respective Coalitions against Napoleon (I'm guessing Napoleon wasn't butterflied out of power ITTL), and it would definately leave scars in the UK's foreign policy for years to come...
Although I do agree with your earlier points.
Which would be why I would recommened General Zod to remove the War of 1812. Losing Canada in the ARW itself, when the Canadian colonies all take a part in the Continental Congress, well, that's actually not that much more then OTL, but losing 1812 (especially to the degree that is being proposed here), that's another matter. The FAW can play as the 'analogue' for 1812 in this TL, allowing American matters to go roughly on schedule, but the proposed 1812 screws things up. Basically, to allow the end-situation of the OP, it's better to not have it occur, in my opinion.
General Zod
Banned
I understand the concern, but then I would limit the effects of the War of 1812 to USA conquest of the British West Indies. This would allow the USA to win another definite victory in the War of 1812, instead of the hairsbreadth survival that it was OTL. Three decisive victories in the ARW, FAW, and 1812 will ensure, besides proper full continental hegemony, the buildup of resources, self-confidence, and Pan-American expansionist spirit that is essential. I hereby scrap any USA conquest beyond the Americas, but I keep the war and its American outcome.
General Zod
Banned
Absolutely not. The whole of Canada and the British Caribbean must go in the USA. That's the absolute minimum, much like Grossdeuthschland.
The British Empire gets properly rebuilt by conquering India, Burma, Siam, stealing Indonesia from the Dutch, and, later, putting a big claim on Southern China. Following LordInsane advice, I now acknowledge I should have the USA leave Australia and South Africa alone, but an Empire in Asia is more than enough to compensate for losing all of North America.
Canada was not absolutely so essential to the worth of the British Empire as you put it. India filled that role. Losing Canada only completes the big loss the British got from the ARW, but they recovered the loss of the 13 colonies nicely.
I get that now, but considering the original idea was the US taking Canada and the British West Indies after the Revolutionary War by force, that's a international curbstomp for British prestige...
Now, if they get them through the ARW and through delegates to the Continental Congress, that's a different story.
By-and-by Zod, can we get a map of the world pre-WWI?
General Zod
Banned
Historically they were pretty much curbstomped by colonial scum anyway by losing the 13 colonies in 1783. Adding the loss of Canada only increases this by 1.25. They weathered losing the 13 colonies, they will weather losing the Big North and the islands.
And no, Napoleon isn't butterflied away (how could Bismarck avoid being butterflied away, if not so ?). He is still busy doing his string of victories in Italy and Egypt in 1798, in the battlefields that truly matter to France.
Like the War of 1812, the FAW is pretty much a peripheral colonial engagement to the European powers. Its effects get essentially dampened by the Napoleonic wars, as much as Europe is concerned.
General Zod
Banned
Now, if they get them through the ARW and through delegates to the Continental Congress, that's a different story.[/quote]
Well, the idea is that both Canada and the BWI send delegates to the Continental Congress, only they manage to liberate Canada in the ARW. Then they build up their navy, and liberate BWI in the War of 1812. I assume that an American Navy beating the French and the British Navies out of the Caribbean when most of the British might is engaged vs. France and viceversa is wholly plausible, the Yanks don't need to conquer Canada so they can focus their full strength on the Caribbean and kick out the French and British in two quick wars. OTOH, doing so in the ARW, as a band of rebels, with little Navy to speak of, would be IMO too unplausible.
Nonetheless, this string of military successes is way important to Americans, swince it inserts a strong Pan-American and Manifest Destiny element in their national mass mind. Hence, when Spanish colonies begin agitating for independence, too, it comes only natural for them to get heavily involved. What about Simon Bolivar, US Hero ?
Sorry, as shameful as it may be for a AH.comer, my mapmaking and generally graphic skills are worse than non-existent.
You'll have to get by with written descriptions. Now, my definitions of many aspects is still in flux and subject to change from discussions like these, but lessee:
North America: Completely USA from top to bottom.
South America: Brazil is independent, the Guyanas, Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia are various USA states. I'm still uncertain about the status of Argentina and Chile, but they most probably got annexed by the USA during the ACW or in a regional war in the late 1800s (the ATL equivalent of the War of the Pacific).
East Asia: Japan owns Korea and Formosa, Russia owns Mongolia and Manchuria, Britain has a large sphere of influence in Southern China, France owns the Shantung peninsula, Germany and Italy hold concessions too. France owns Indochina, the UK controls India, Burma, Siam, Malesia, and Indonesia. Philippines are a US territory.
As much I wished to, it seems a little difficult to make Australia and New Zealand a part of the USA. Oh well.
South Asia: much as OTL.
Africa: Southern Rhodesia is part of the Union of South Africa. Tanganyka is a British colony. Germany owns Kamerun, Gabon, Middle Congo, Ghana, South West Africa, and possibly (I'm not yet sure) Congo. Italy owns Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Libya and possibly (I'm not yet sure) Tunisia. Rest as OTL.
Europe: The German Empire includes Alsace-Lorraine, Luxemburg, Austria, Bohemia, Moravia, and Slovenia. Italy includes Nice, Savoy, Trento, Trieste, Gorizia-Gradisca, and Dalmatia. Hungary owns Slovakia, Croatia, Bosnia-Hercegovina, and Transylvania. Bosnia-Hercegovina is a Hungarian protectorate, Albania, Motenegro and Kosovo are Italian protectorates. Bulgaria owns Macedonia. Greece includes Southern Eprius and Thessaly. The Ottoman Empire keeps Southern and Eastern Thrace. I'm uncertain whether Norway and Sweden are still in personal union, as well as the status of Belgium. It may be in tis OTL form, or partitioned between Netherlands (Flanders), France (West Wallonia), and Germany (areas of provinces of Liegi, Limburg, and Namur that lie east of the Meuse river). The Balkans are in flux anyway.
Gentlemen, lets consider what we'd like to take as a result of this military victory.
I think I speak for us all when I say that the belligerent attitude of France against our German Friends is deeply responsible for the tragedies suffered on the Western Front. The War of 1870 was apparently not sufficient, and we must see to it that France will never rise again.
They shall pay the families of the German Dead. They shall pay to their utmost ability to pay. Their belligerence made this tragedy a reality and now those French warmongers are going to have to pay the price. France will retain territory that is rightfully Italian to Italy, and Germany will annex Luxembourg and Belgium, as well as extend the French Border westward. This isn't all. The German administered Belgian Province will occupy all lands 50% Flemish or more in former France. For its neutrality, Spain will receive some of Southern France as well. Finally, Italy and Germany will occupy most of France's African colonies, while a complex arrangement is settled with the UK.
Our Loyal Austro-Hungarian Allies have considerable internal pressures to resolve, as well as the Serbian issue that started this war. At this drafting, although the situation in Vienna seems somewhat confused, I believe that Serbia rightfully belongs to Austria Hungary, unless they decline to accept it. In addition, Romania's aggression against our federalizing friends should be punished territorially and economically. Bulgaria and Hungary are both entitled to a generous cut of this backwards kingdom.
The United Kingdom should vacate Allied Territories it seized during the course of the war, and we will accept their own decision on their Irish situation.
Finally, the East Asian situation is entirely confused. We have not forgotten that Japan and China both declared war on the Central Powers. Japan will have to pay an indemnity and vacate our colonial holdings in Asia. As for China, we believe that the Chinese may at last need European Guidance for itself. Attached to this document are twenty-four demands that we demand of the Chinese government.
I think I speak for us all when I say that the belligerent attitude of France against our German Friends is deeply responsible for the tragedies suffered on the Western Front. The War of 1870 was apparently not sufficient, and we must see to it that France will never rise again.
They shall pay the families of the German Dead. They shall pay to their utmost ability to pay. Their belligerence made this tragedy a reality and now those French warmongers are going to have to pay the price. France will retain territory that is rightfully Italian to Italy, and Germany will annex Luxembourg and Belgium, as well as extend the French Border westward. This isn't all. The German administered Belgian Province will occupy all lands 50% Flemish or more in former France. For its neutrality, Spain will receive some of Southern France as well. Finally, Italy and Germany will occupy most of France's African colonies, while a complex arrangement is settled with the UK.
Our Loyal Austro-Hungarian Allies have considerable internal pressures to resolve, as well as the Serbian issue that started this war. At this drafting, although the situation in Vienna seems somewhat confused, I believe that Serbia rightfully belongs to Austria Hungary, unless they decline to accept it. In addition, Romania's aggression against our federalizing friends should be punished territorially and economically. Bulgaria and Hungary are both entitled to a generous cut of this backwards kingdom.
The United Kingdom should vacate Allied Territories it seized during the course of the war, and we will accept their own decision on their Irish situation.
Finally, the East Asian situation is entirely confused. We have not forgotten that Japan and China both declared war on the Central Powers. Japan will have to pay an indemnity and vacate our colonial holdings in Asia. As for China, we believe that the Chinese may at last need European Guidance for itself. Attached to this document are twenty-four demands that we demand of the Chinese government.
Hm... did East and West Florida send delegates to the Continental Congress in TTL? That could help with the Ameriwanking, a little bit (after all, Spain could hardly motivate taking from the USA...).
General Zod
Banned
Oh, yes, the Floridas both sent delegates to the Continental Congress ITTL. All the British colonies from Canada to the West Indies did. About the Floridas, what I'm uncertain of, is whether they enter the Union as one state or two states. Like France and the UK, Spain gets a beating when the USA sends a volunteer army to help the Spanish colonies in their war of independence (did I tell you ITTL Simon Bolivar becomes a US national hero much like Sam Houston ?). Once the continental colonies are lost, Spain typically tip-toes around the American giant in fear of losing Cuba and Puerto Rico. But it's all to no avail. What I've not yet made mind about, is whether the US simply buy Cuba and Puerto Rico in the mid-late 1800s, or unleash the Spanish-American War as soon as they have properly recovered their fighting spirit after the Civil War (say, any time after a decades from the end of the ACW is good) on some flimsly pretext in Cuba. This mostly affects the fate of the Philippines, of course. Probably the war option. I fancy the Yankees having a good foothold in Asia to face the British Empire, the Russians, and the Japanese. Of course, in this TL, there are no buts or ifs over the fate of the Spanish conquests. Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines are quickly put on the road to territorial status and later statehood. After all, once you own North America and half of South America, completing the unification of the AMericas only makes sense, and if you have a lot of mestizos as citizens, you can as well have the Philipinos. Gosh, if I only could find a way to justify a Yankee Australia and NZ. Together with Yankee Phlippines, they would make a nice counterpart to the British Empire in India, Burma, Siam, Malesia, and Indonesia.
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General Zod
Banned
That's the spirit ! Let's pound the nasty little revanchists deep in the mud where they belong
and make them angered enough to raise again in fascist all-consuming rage fury a generation later under some mustachoed genocidal warlord of theirs. Big reparations, I surmise.
Would TTL have a war guilt clausle for France alone, or do France and Russia share the blame ? In the eyes of the Central Powers they are equally as abhorrent. Russia looks dangerous because of its size and autocratic nature, while France looks like an vipers' nest of recidivist warmongers that assailed them for the third time in a century.
Nice, Savoy, Corsica, and Tunisia. Anything else ?
What do you think of this: Germany gets Luxemburg, Belgian territoty east of the Meuse, Belgian Flanders and Dunkirk are ceded to the Netherlands (which are offered an association status with the German Empire), West Wallonia and French Flanders are set up as the German-administered Belgian Protectorate. The French border with Germany is advanced to Belfort and the rest of French Lorraine. I'm just a bit uncertain whether to put it on the Moselle or the Meuse. Maybe the latter, since it's the new border with Belgium. Also would ensure that Verdun is in German hands.
The German Empire would be most eager to have as close an association with the Netherlands as possible, and the latter ought also be open to discuss some, since they have just been handed a nice big Flemish gift, but what they would find acceptablw without excessive cohercion ? Milirary alliance and customs union ? Commonwealth status where they have full autonomy in internal matters, but Germany has control of foreign, monetary, and milirary matters ? Union with the federal German Empire as one of its member states ?
The lands with a Flemish majority (that is, Dunkirk) go to Netherlands, while the rest of the French Flanders go to rebuild Belgium with West Wallonia.
Nice idea, but which lands ?
Morocco to Germany, Algeria and Tunisia to Italy ?
Hungary. Austria-Slovenia and Bohemia-Moravia are a member kingdom of the German Empire, under an Hapsburg, since 1866-1870, much like Bavaria and Saxony. I'm just a bit uncertain whether Bismarck would let them enter the Empire as one or two kingdoms. Each option has advantages and drawbacks. One big Cisleithania kingdom makes a member state potentially capable of rivaling Prussia, even more so than Bavaria, but it further drowns the Czech in a German majority.
Yes, the unruly, uppity Serbians that started this whole mess should be pushed down even more firmly than France. I wonder whether Hungary would be willing to annex Serbia and expand their row of Slav subjects further (they already have Slovaks, Croats, Bosnians, and Transylvanian Romanians) with the most unruly South Slavs of all. Or they would refuse the honor and Serbia becomes a protectorate of the Central Powers with a puppet king and a BIG Allied garrison.
Yes, Bulgaria would surely claim Southern Dobrujia from Romania, and the latter becomes a protectorate of the Central Powers. What else would the Central Powers claim from this kingdom ? Do we follow the OTL treaty of Bucharest (control of the Carpathian montain psses to Hungary, oil wells to Germany) ?
This assumes Bulgary still has the wisdom to betray Pan-Slav solidarity and side with the CP, and since they have no claim on Hungary, and claims on Serbia, Greece, and Romania, I see no real difficulty.
Hmm, the side of the UK in this war fluctuates due to another key PoD. In Ameriwank-Grossdeutschlands TLs where Frederick III dies early, they are in the Entente. In TLs where he lives to a ripe old age, they are in the Quadruple Alliance.
Of course, were the UK in the Entente, Germany and Italy would want at least Gibraltar and Malta to ensure the safety of the Mediterranean. Depending on whether they would want to end the war soon and appease the UK with a generous peace, they may not ask much else (although Italy is likely to ask for Somaliland, maybe swapping it with some other French colony). They might well ask for additional colonies in Africa if they get greedy. But since subduing the UK would require a big naval buidup, I assume they most likely would settle for a generous peace and reapprochement with the British Empire (which is not their sworn enemy or strategic rival as Russia or France are).
Of course, were Britain in the Central Powers, I assume they would want to make themselves a feast of the French colonial empire: hmm, maybe Madagascar, Ciad, Ivory Coast (or that goes to Germany), New Caledonia, French islands in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. They would also establish a protectorate over Persia, Tibet, Afghanistan, maybe southern Russian Central Asia. And they would surely want Japan to get Manchuria and Eastern Siberia. I wonder if they would bother to claim Western French Africa.
As it concerns Japan, see UK. Where the Brits go, so most likely go the Japs. As it concerns China, sure they will be triple-screwed. Much more so if Britain and Japan are on the side of the victors, as Germany and Italy might not be willing to claim as much extensive slices of China as the latter. Of course, the USA might likely object to a massive partition of China, but that will most likely be a serious issue for the 1920s and 1930s.
Wank is indeed the correct term. The prospects of the US actually winning major gains in the War of 1812 can be summed up as nil.
The reality is that the US was fortunate to get off as lightly as it did.
The only thing early US victories would do is provoke a more violent response from the British and since the US Navy can't face a single SOL, let alone squadrons of them, and the best the US Army ever fielded for the entire nation was well below what the British had at Waterloo alone, the outcome is clear and is not remotely favorable to the US.
The reality is that the US was fortunate to get off as lightly as it did.
The only thing early US victories would do is provoke a more violent response from the British and since the US Navy can't face a single SOL, let alone squadrons of them, and the best the US Army ever fielded for the entire nation was well below what the British had at Waterloo alone, the outcome is clear and is not remotely favorable to the US.
General Zod
Banned
With all due respect, I think you are not mindful enough of some ATL facts.
A) Without Canada, the British lack any foothold on the North American continent, and can only resort to amphibious landings, which decent US regular army and militias can repel effectively.
B) Having owned Canada as a loyal part of the Union since the Revolution, the USA need not dedicate any forces to its conquest or containment and only have to focus their yet-immature but not unconsiderable strength to defend the Atlantic and Caribbean coasts effectively and build a strong Navy to conquer the West Indies and defend them.
C) With the added resources and influence of Canada, a long-standing irredentist claim on the West Indies, the confidence that comes from winning two major wars in a row, and the lessening of the influence of the Jeffersonian Democrats this most likely causes, the USA are much more likely to invest the resources needed to build a strong Army and Navy: what they fielded OTL at the start of the War of 1812 is far from what they could afford to build if they cared.
D) During 1812-1814, Britain is engaged in a life-or-death struggle with France which absorbs the vast majority of their resources and attention. Canada has been lost for a generation and they have no realistic chance of recovering it or any other slice of the continental USA, the West Indies are rich but not so precious that they would crtiically weaken themselves against Napoleon to hold them. They are their last toehold on North America, if they lose it and their first counteroffensives fail, they will most likely write off North America as a lost cause and focus on Napoleon. Besides, they already tried and failed to subdue the USA a generation before, when the Yankees were much weaker.
For all these reasons, I deem that ITTL a War of 1812 where the decently-sized-and-equipped US Army and Navy swiftly conquer the West Indies soon after the declaration of war, successfully repel some British counterattacks, and bring the British to the negotiation table for a favourable peace treaty is a quite reasonable outcome. It just confirms and completes the outcome of the ARW.
This thread is blatantly and obviously Habsburgophobic, and I call upon all good Habsburgophiles in the area to boycott it and grumpily complain about the God damn Prussians/Italians/Hungarians, loudly.