Look at the prewar pattern, which will continue. The RN had decided airplanes are important as fleet scouts. They will keep improving on them, a little bit each year. Just look at the capital ships. We went from slow firing 4 gun predreads with coal power with poor armor to 15" oil fired ships with much better armor in 15 years. Planes will not be as important, so will be lower funding, so looking at submarines is a better example. Look at how much the UK improved from the Class A to Class E boats in about 15 years. Or compare the USA Holland boats to the Germans diesel boats made right before the war. Huge gains.
What cause the Washington Naval treaty was the major powers being bankrupt and having three less players at the table (Russia, Germany, AH). Without the chaos of WW1 and the financial ruin, the arms race continues. We likely see someone do 17" or larger guns by 1925. We will see CVL types ships in the early 1920's progressing into what we call CV with metal planes in the early 1930's. I look at this stuff in detail for my TL, and it is the pace the navies were on. Radar shows up as harbor control by 1920 and is widely used on ships by 1925. Guided weapons (smart bombs) are quite possible by the mid 1920's and almost certain by the mid 1930's.
A better way may be to look at the financial costs so see how much was waste. The USA spent 22,000 million USD. The UK spent/loaned 57 million USD. Most of this went for things that were destroyed and low tech such as steel, ammo, guns, food, etc. Now look at how much things costs. Good dreadnought is around 10-15 million USD. You can probably build your first 3 CVL for this amount. Or you can fund a nice R&D program for better airplanes for this amount spent over 10 or so years and make major gains in airplanes. Or fund a engine development program to allow better tanks. These major R&D programs are literally rounding errors in the wartime budget.
And it is key to remember that killing and crippling about 1/3 of your men reduces the size of the economy quite substantially. So all this wartime spending (22,000 USD or 57 million USD) is not additional spending, it is pulling money out of future years. And for ever dollar spent in WW1, I guarantee that 2-4 USD were lost on the size of the economy in the 1920's and 1930's.
Or put one final way, lets say 10 years ago, an ASB kills 1/6 of all working age people on earth, 1/6 of all scientist, 1/6 of all engineers, has 1/2 of all workers sit idle for 4 years, and destroys 1/10 buildings on the planet. ITTL, do you believe technology would be more advance than OTL? Wars destroy on the whole, they don't create. Or did the USA invasion of Iraq in 2003 increase or decrease the number of patents in Iraq? Do car bombings actually help increase the pace of research? To me, the answer is obvious.