Challenge: Prolonging the Second World War

King Thomas said:
No nukes, and better German generalship.Maybe Stalin and Hitler could declare peace so the West has to fight Germany alone.

theres no way Hitler and Stalin would have remained allies for long...part of the reason he went to war in the first place was to occupy Russia and make it the bases of Germanies 'empire'.

If you want no nukes you have to remove racial repression in occupied Europe. That way the key scientists have little reason to flee the country. No Neils Bohr no bomb, or is that too simple?

"During the Nazi occupation of Denmark in World War II, Bohr escaped to Sweden and spent the last two years of the war in England and America, where he became associated with the Atomic Energy Project."

http://nobelprize.org/physics/laureates/1922/bohr-bio.html
 
esl said:
If you want no nukes you have to remove racial repression in occupied Europe. That way the key scientists have little reason to flee the country. No Neils Bohr no bomb, or is that too simple?


You could do that, or it could be that nuclear weapons are just too complex for the technology of the time to produce.
 
Mr.Bluenote's Goering TL has some ideas... Perhaps Britain signs an armistice around 1940 or so, and doesn't join the war again until Russia and Germany have exhausted each other in the late 40's? Combined with the US staying out of the war in Europe, this could definitely keep it going.
 
According to a book I read entitled War without Mercy about the Pacific War, some US war planners feared if the Allies didn't relieve China fast enough, the Nationalists would feel betrayed and make some arrangement with the Japanese.

If the Japanese can establish a pro-Japanese gov't in China (perhaps Chiang and Mao get assassinated), the addition of Chinese manpower and the non-need to occupy vast amounts of Chinese territory might make things more difficult for the US in the Pacific.
 
It has all been said before, but here my 2 cents:

- A German nuclear bomb would have been possible hadn't science been limited to whatever gives militarily useful results within 6 months. It might be a very crude bomb (like a Chernobyl type reactor blowing up, the Germans did build a nuclear reactor during wwii IOTL), and the bomb may be difficult to transport (a very big suicide plane might be needed), but it would be enough to force Russia and GB out of the war by 1945, and to make the US not use their bombs immediately, to avoid nuclear retaliation. If Germany had been second to invent the bomb, they might even have a big propaganda advantage when they can say that they removed London and Moscow as a retaliation for loosing Berlin and Hamburg - but that would need prolonging the war at another instance first.

- Lots of mistakes have been made by all sides during the war. Some of the German ones were unavoidable due to lack of hindsight, some were unavoidable due to fascist mentality, and others are just likely to happen at a certain rate. Removing all errors from one side would imo need removing them on the other side, too, which would mean the production capacities decide who wins, which in that case would not change the results.

- The biggest change would be a Nazi party advocating militarism, revanchism, and a moderate form of fascism, but no religious intolerance (I don't consider the Holocaust racism, as there simply is no Jewish race). Pretty much like Italian fascism. That would give Germany about 10 to 15 million more people, of which lots would be useful as soldiers, scientists, engineers, officers, businessmen, political heads, and so on. It would also avoid the Allies getting half of these people, among them a weird looking scientist writing a letter to the American President about some science fiction bomb. And it would allow Germany to recruit millions of people in occupied territories, instead of just hundreds of thousands. The war against Russia might be won by 1943 or earlier with all the additional man power, which in turn would free the soldiers necessary to repulse Allied landings in the Med and avoid D-Day. It would also be easier to use all the conquered ressources - expect military production to rise much more than IOTL, at much higher technology and quality standards.

- Getting Spain to join the fascists would also help a lot. The Germans actually tried, but very half-heartedly (probably due to their superiority-believe). With Spain joining the Axis, Gibraltar would quickly fall. The Gibraltar straits would become nearly unpassable for British ships. Supply in North Africa would be much more difficult for Britain and much easier for Germany/Italy/Spain. The Germans could safely ignore Italian problems in Greece, while going for Russia without all the costly delays. Without a few other changes, that would cause the first nuclear bombs to be dropped on Germany, though, which would mean the war in Europe lasts only slightly longer than IOTL.

- Not declaring war on the US would be the most obvious and simple change. I suppose Germany could have handled Britain and Russia, but not Britain, Russia, and the US. If additionally the war against Russia had been delayed another year, and the spared effort had been put into conquering more and more parts of the British Empire (North Africa, Middle East, Med, and so on) instead, Britain would have been reduced to a minor annoyance, there might have been possibilities to make Russia join (they'd probably have liked to get Persia again, besides other places in Asia), and there would have been enough oil imported from Russia until oil from the Mideast is available.
 
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What if Argentina where to join the war on the side of the Axis. They might not be industrialized enough, but they could be bolt holes for Nazi leadership if the war in Europe goes badly for them.
 
Count Deerborn said:
What if Argentina where to join the war on the side of the Axis. They might not be industrialized enough, but they could be bolt holes for Nazi leadership if the war in Europe goes badly for them.

Isn't it much more fun that they became a refuge for Jews fleeing Germany and then Nazis fleeing the Allies instead?
 
You need multiple POD's for this.

1] The Manhattan Project could be set back a year by numerous things. A theoretcal miscalculation as to the critical mass (too big would cause the conclusion a practical bomb could not be built) or too much emphasis on the plutonium bomb coupled with reactor problems and theoretical problems with critical mass assembly, blah, blah. I said one year.

2] OTOH I am not keen on German A-Bomb MAD standoffs. It is not enough to have a bomb, you also need a practical delivery system. Remember that the first generation fission weapons were very heavy. Also to get a German A-Bomb that works you need more resources committed and that's fewer resources producing conventional weapons and the Third Reich is already behind the 8 Ball on that score.

3] You also need something more than D-Day is a disaster. That ends up with Soviers on the Rhine summer of 1945.

4] Probably divergence needs to start way back in 1942. Hitler orders full mobilization in January of 1942. The German offensive (Blau) is more consistent in its objectives. Stalingrad is either taken early or bypassed (lengthy topic). Mannerheim moves south closing the encirclement of Leningrad which then surrenders. Baku is captured and due to the Brandenburgers some of the oil facilties are relatively intact.

5] Japan gets serious about ASW.

6] Even with all of the above all Germany can do is limp a month or two into 1946 before the end. World War Two really is a colossal mismatch.

Tom
 
Mike Stearns said:
No, I don't. At the time of the Trinity test, American war planners were projecting that the earliest ending for the war was some time in 1948.

Well, those were worst-case scenarios, which in retrospect are fairly overblown. The Japanese at this point have virtually no heavy artillery, flimsy little tanks, an airforce with little or no fuel, and no navy. They're going to keep the US busy for 2 years with pointy sticks and spirit? In any event, the closest they got to an official estimate for casualties was 120,000 US soldiers killed, which seems a rather low death rate for a campaign extending over 25+ months.

Mike Stearns said:
And remember the most important thing in Japanese society, especially during this time was saving face and protecting a person's personal honor.

Everybody's got their breaking point, and that of civilian populations is generally lower than that of trained troops. (Mass suicides of civilians on Japanese-held islands were usually instigated by troops. At gunpoint). OTOH, Paraguay. But if they're _that_ insanely determined, we're talking about the extermination of the Japanese nation - at least, the adult male portion of it - by the end of '47. Famine, gas, mass firebombing of every remaining city and strongpoint. Frankly, I think we are definitely moving into low plausibility territory... it strikes me as incredible that the Emperor or the top leadership would not have surrendered when it became clear that deaths in the tens of millions would be the only result of continued resistance. After all, the Japanese didn't surrender after Hiroshima because the atom bomb emitted powerful Bushido-destroying rays.


Bruce
 
Double POD-- first very Possible, Second slighty ASB But.......

Saturday Dec 6th 1941 5 pm

Roosevelt is working his way thru his In basket, when his secertary comes in. Talking about it being 5pm.

OTL Roosevelt said
"Thats OK I only have 2 files to go",
Went ahead and read and initialed them. and sent them on.

ATL Roosevelt is feeling a little more Tired, and says,
"OK, nothing here that can't wait till tomorrow"

Sunday Dec 7th 1941

As FDR is getting ready to go downstairs to the office, the first reports of Pearl start coming in.

Feb 14th 1942
FDR finally gets to that last File, a report on the Possibility of a Atomic Bomb and Request of funds, for a preliminary project. FDR Approves it, But due to the hundreds of other Projects in the last two months, Cuts the Requested Funding in half.

April 1943 Germany
Hitler is heading back from a rally in Numingburg, when a lone Bomber seperated from its flight sees the Train, and unleashes it load, before returning home.

By the Time help Arrives Hitler is in a Coma. After meetings and infighting, Admiral Donitz is appointed temporary Leader.
[OTL He was Fuheur for three weeks following Hitlers Evacuation]

Donitz Listens to His Generals and the Eastern Front Stabilizes.

August 1943
The Manhattan Project has had to fight for every dollar for the past 2 years, But it finally begins to show some results, As such its funding is moved from the Bottom to close to the top of the Project list. Even so It is expected to be mid 1946 before the first test.





August 11th 1944

D-day, the main problem the Allies have is Moving the Supplies into the Beachheads But within several Days they manage their Breakouts, but it will be a Long Bloody Slugfest across France,

Febuary 1946 Pattons Third army enters Germany, In the South, While the Red Army finally enters in the East.

March 1946
With millions dead to Firebombing and Famine , The Emperor orders Japan to surender.

April 1946
Red army reaches Berlin, while Other Units meet up with the Advancing Allies.

May 1946
Germany Surrenders.

June 1946

Berlin Conference Between Stalin, Churhill, & Truman.
USSR upset over US actions in Korea and China.

August 1946
Trinity - year One AE
 
Hitler dies in 1940, at the peak of his glory, blown up in a meeting with Mussolini. There is no Greek war, therefore no Yugoslav war. Instead, the Germans push the British off the rim of the Med. They don't take the oil and the Gulf because they can't. They do knock the British fleet out of the Med and force the surrender of Malta. Italy appoints a competent general to fight in the Arab lands. Italy concentrates on getting their industrial production up.
Germany does not exterminate the Jews. They concentrate on getting ready for the war with Russia in 1942. Ditto the Russians.
Russia and Germany are much better prepared for war in 1942. Stalemate with the Germans slowly pushing the Russians back at 10,000 square miles a month in set piece and well managed attacks. Much lower casualties.
Japan hits America in 1941 on schedule and war is joined. America does a Japan first war as in OTL, but Germany is preoccupied. The war goes as in OTL with Algeria, then Sicily, but then it is Corsica and Sardinia and southern France and Normandy, about a year later.
Then we nuke Berlin in 1946, after taking out Tokyo in 1945.
 
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