Hmm. She wins in NV-2 in 2006. McCain chooses her instead of Palin... not that crazy of a difference. Same low level of experience, low level of national exposure and would fulfill the role of firing up social conservatives.
OTL Palinistas are then Anglistas ITTL.
Meanwhile Obama has just about the worst second half to his term imaginable. The economy double dips in 2011 due to the failure of the government to prevent the Bush tax cuts from lapsing. Unemployment up over 11%. Obama and a Republican Congress butt heads over tax cuts, Immigration Reform, another Stimulus, and Card Check, with Republicans winning the battle of public opinion on each issue. Obama unpopularly vetoes tax reform legislation.
Romney declines to run in 2012 (God forbid). The nomination comes to Gingrich vs. Angle, with Gingrich unable to gain any traction among social conservatives and without enough legitimacy among fiscal conservatives to win.
Angle is a bit far to the right for the U.S, but Obama has 41% approval rating in Feb. 2012, and 37% approval rating by November. Angle wins.