Challenge: Polish-Swedish-Lithuanian Commonwealth

[AuroraBorealis]

What about having Gustavus Adolphus survive Lutzen in 1632 and going on to found an empire as you described? One could easily resolve a '31 years war' where he is successful in poland/lithuania but then loses central brandenburg/saxony/etc to a hapsburg/french coalition.

I don't see Gustavus Adolphus being elected King of the Commonwealth over Wladyslaws, he is not decended from the Jagiellonions. That does not mean he won't be a player in the Union. Make him Duke of Livonia for instance to bring the Protestants there under a Protestant Duke but still owing his feudal alliegiances to Wladyslaws and at the same time it transfers it nominally into the Swedish sphere. It should engender more support among the Protestants when the conflict with the Ottomans surfaces. In this TL the Vasas may not want to be so overtly allied with the Habsburgs, but without any problems from Sweden to deal with, then the resources of the Commonwealth can be put to more effective use when the Magnates War occurs. Sigismund and Wladyslaws and the Habsburgs may very well be at odds over the disposition of Transylvania,Wallachia and Moldavia.

Wladyslaws himself may even marry a Protestant this TL absent absent any serious trouble from the Swedes or the Polish Protestant nobility. He requested permission from the Pope OTL but was given what he thought was a blunt and rude refusal. Absent the need for a serious alliance with the Habsburgs and a stronger Protestant influence he may just go ahead and do it. The leading contender would be Elizabeth of Bohemia, daughter of the Winter King of Bohemia. If the Pope decides to excommunicate him he will gain wide spread support among his Protestant subjects and will almost certainly stop the counter-reformation in its tracks in Poland.

 

[Magnificate]

1575 – Stephen Batory becomes king of Poland. He does not convert to Catholicism (this is the main POD of TTL)
1576 – Royal marriage of Stephen Batory and the Jagiellonian. Coronation of Stephen Batory and Anna the Jagiellonian. Danzig refuses to accept him as a sovereign. Batory responses by erecting an economical blockade (as in OTL).
1577 – Military solution to Danzig problem proves to be a failure (as in OTL). But negotiations are handled slightly more in favor of the king than in OTL, due to greater willingness of protestant merchants to pact with a protestant King.
1579 – Batory conquers Polatsk (as in OTL)
1580 –Batory does not conquer Wielkie Luki (Batory’s army was composed mainly of catholics, so it’s safe to assume that their morale would be slightly weaker)
1582 - Livonian war ends in Jama Zapolski treaty slighty, more in favor of Russia.
(circa 1583) – Warsaw Confederation documents are rewritren to include proper exucitive laws, so that tolerance of different religions is enforced better (this didn’t happen in OTL, due to small protestant influence)
1586 – Batory dies
1587 - Zygmunt III Vasa is elected an coronated king of Poland (Maximilian III Habsburg has no chances in TTL, any ideas for other candidate?)
1588 – There is no battle of Byczyna (or maybe there is some skirmish versus other candidate)
1589 – (i’ll complete it when I return to home)

 

[Magnificate]

1587 - Zygmunt III Vasa is elected an coronated king of Poland. Poland and Sweden are in Personal Union. (Maximilian III Habsburg has no chances in TTL, any ideas for other candidate?)
1588 – There is no battle of Byczyna (or maybe there is some skirmish versus other candidate)
1593 – Synod of Uppsala is conducted. While it changes the official religion of Sweden to Protestantism, many of Warsaw Confederation rules are implemented as well.
(circa 1600) – Union of Brest concludes, basically the same as OTL
1605 – Dimitriads begin, however the main focus of those war are instaling a pro-Polish/pro-Swedish Tzar (as Zygmunt abonds all hopes of succesfully managing three enterily different states at once) and securing the Baltic Coast. Contingents of Swedish Army are sent to aid the Poles and Lithuanians.
1616 – Signing of the Truce of Tver (OTL 2 years later Truce of Deulino) concludes the Polish-Swedish-Muscovite War. Tzar of Russia, Dimitr the False, loses Smolensk area and Russian Baltic Coast to Poland and Sweden.
(war with the Ottoman Empire is delayed)
(circa 1615-1630) – Zygmunt works hard to streght the union between Poland-Sweden (exactly how and why he achieves that is open to discussion)
1632 - Death of Sigismund III Vasa; Wladislaus IV Vasa becomes King of Poland and King of Sweden and Grand Duke of Lithuania
(and now, there should come war with Russia, Ottoman Empire and tensions in Sweden itself and in Ukraine – times of trouble for the future commonwealth)

So little time, so much to write. Comments?

 

[tinfoil]

I don't see Gustavus Adolphus being elected King of the Commonwealth over Wladyslaws, he is not decended from the Jagiellonions. That does not mean he won't be a player in the Union. ... In this TL the Vasas may not want to be so overtly allied with the Habsburgs, but without any problems from Sweden to deal with, then the resources of the Commonwealth can be put to more effective use when the Magnates War occurs. Sigismund and Wladyslaws and the Habsburgs may very well be at odds over the disposition of Transylvania,Wallachia and Moldavia.

Wladyslaws himself may even marry a ....

If Gustavus lives on, he may set up a dynastic marriage between his only child, Christina, and someone of influence in his conquered territories. Christina was known to be very intelligent. This marriage may well be the root for the S-L-P union. In OTL, Christina abdicated, converted to catholicism, and moved to Rome (in 1655 or so?), after gaining a reputation as a frivolous monarch. In this TL, her father's longer strict Protestant influence may better train her to act as an effective monarch once Gustavus eventually dies (or her husband could run the empire). Gustavus had a long history of pragmatic cooperation with Catholic nobility, so this might work...

 

[Magnificate]

If Gustavus lives on, he may set up a dynastic marriage between his only child, Christina, and someone of influence in his conquered territories.

That is some very good idea and I'll use it in my TL. What is more Christina would be the person who saved the Union from shattering during and after 40years war (OTL 30years war).

Some more questions:
-Suppose pro-polish/pro-swedish tsar is placed on the russian throne and has some support from PSL. For how long danger of war with Russia is avoided?
-Polish and Swedish armies were quite different in OTL. Is it reasonable to field mixed PS armies?
-Romanovs are butterflied away and PSL gains territory where Petersburg would have been built. Was that site good for a city and port?
-What does sound better: Commonwealth of Three Nations, Commonwealth of Nations, Baltic Commonwealth, Polish-Swedish-Lithuanian Commonwealth?

New (big one) addition to the timeline is to be expected in two or three days. (Hint: if you want to read it before that, try searching Test forum )