Challenge: Polish-Swedish-Lithuanian Commonwealth

Magnificate · Feb 25, 2006

As you may already know, I decided to write a timeline that includes the successful Polish-Swedish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The task may seem hard as first, but proves to be really complicated when you try to match all the details. I have discarded all of my previous drafts and decided to ask you for help.

Primary Goal: Find a POD that will create a relatively stable and successful Polish-Swedish-Lithuanian Commonwealth at the end of XXth century.
Secondary Goal: Make sure the POD is as late as possible and as much insignificant as possible.
Tertiary Goal: Make sure that Poland is dominating nation of the Commonwealth

I will outline basic problems concerning the creation of an union of Poland, Sweden and Lithuania below for you:
1. Religion. During the Reformation period Poland-Lithuania stayed catholic, whereas Sweden converted to Protestantism and removed most catholic influences from their country. Religion was one of the main reason of wars between Poland and Sweden, and was the main reason of War against Sigimund.
2. Political system. At that time kings in Poland-Lithuania were elected. I think it is safe to assume that the creation of peaceful PSL Commonwealth was possible only under the Vasa royal family. Not to mention the vast differences between Swedish absolutism and Polish nobility-with-their-“Golden-Freedom”.
3. Geography. Poland and Sweden are separated by Baltic Sea, that provides some lucrative trading opportunities, but makes administrating the Commonwealth quite difficult. Especially since king can’t in Poland and Sweden at the same time and creates a reason for secession/rebellion (which was the case in OTL). If the Commonwealth attempted to merge it’s land possessions by claiming Finland, Courland and the rest of eastern Baltic coast, that would definitely lead to war with Russia.
4. Language and culture. In the long perspective it is nearly impossible to create a homogenous nation out of Poland, Sweden and Lithuania. Maybe sort of federal state is plausible?
5. Wars. This is quite obvious, but for example after the Deluge creating such a Commonwealth is possible only by incorporation of one country (most likely Poland) into the other.

List of PODs I have thought about:
- Pontificate of influential, pro-ecumenical, peaceful pope during late XVIth century. He manages to undo some of the reformation and is personally interested in unifying a catholic and protestant country.
- Birth of a priest/monk/saint that is able to stand against Olaus Petri and other Swedish Lutherans and manages to keep Sweden Catholic.
- Marriage of Jan II Kazimierz Vasa with Christina of Sweden
- Decisive Polish victory in Battle of Stångebro

I invite all of you to the discussion, especially if you come from Poland or Sweden or Lithuania. Thank you in advance for your PODs, suggestions, comments, timelines, maps ect.

radical_neutural · Feb 25, 2006

map? would such a nation be better at holding on to sweden's northamerican possestions? does it ever anex denmark or norway? (hint)how does it fair agianst peter the great?

chunkeymonkey13q · Feb 25, 2006

You might also try having Sigismund maintain his control over Sweden, (which he ruled from Poland) instead of being deposed by his uncle Charles IX. Check this link out for more information: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigismund_of_Sweden

Magnificate · Feb 26, 2006

radical_neutural said:
would such a nation be better at holding on to sweden's northamerican possestions?

As far as I know Swedish Colonial Empire was established during mid-XVIIth century, whereas PSL Commonwealth would be probably created during late XVIth century. Therefore we should rather discuss whether PSL Commonwealth would be interested in colonialism at all. Merely holding the union together would divert Polish and Swedish resources from colonization of distant lands. However that doesn’t mean that PSL could not acquire colonies some later time. I have a strange felling that they would annex Antarctica.

radical_neutural said:
does it ever anex denmark or norway?

Maybe, that depends on the POD. I presume that those two nations would cooperate (and probably ask Russia for help) to avoid incorporation into the PSL Commonwealth.

radical_neutural said:
how does it fair agianst peter the great?

Assuming the butterflies would not prevent him from being born, there would be some major struggle for Baltic ports as Talin, Riga, Petersburg. Again, details depend on the chosen POD.

chunkeymonkey13q said:
You might also try having Sigismund maintain his control over Sweden, (which he ruled from Poland) instead of being deposed by his uncle Charles IX.

That is what my “Decisive Polish victory in Battle of Stångebro” POD is about. But maybe they are other ways to have Charles’s plot fail.

Berra · Feb 26, 2006

This is not proboble but say. 1) Nazi Germany takes Moscow, 2) Stalin sues for peace. 3) A bombing of the peace cermony at Kremlin killing of both every high ranking communist and nazist. 4) Both epmires collapses. 5) The Polish rise against their oppressors together with the Ukrainians. 6) Swedewen support them. 7) They form some sort of union.

1-7 is a bit unlikly ofcourse.

Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy · Feb 26, 2006

Berra said:
This is not proboble but say. 1) Nazi Germany takes Moscow, 2) Stalin sues for peace. 3) A bombing of the peace cermony at Kremlin killing of both every high ranking communist and nazist. 4) Both epmires collapses. 5) The Polish rise against their oppressors together with the Ukrainians. 6) Swedewen support them. 7) They form some sort of union.

1-7 is a bit unlikly ofcourse.

Errr... well it's... I mean... kinda... hmmm... but...

Ah, forget it!

radical_neutural · Feb 26, 2006

VoCSe said:
Errr... well it's... I mean... kinda... hmmm... but...

Ah, forget it!

no, don't forget it. forget him and his crackhead ways.

Nicole · Feb 26, 2006

radical_neutural said:
no, don't forget it. forget him and his crackhead ways.

Sorry, r_n, but I don't know if you can really say that anyone else has "crackhead ways"...

Perhaps if Poland-Lithuania adopted Lutheranism, which I believe it came close to, such a union could be more feasible?

radical_neutural · Feb 26, 2006

Imajin said:
Sorry, r_n, but I don't know if you can really say that anyone else has "crackhead ways"...

Perhaps if Poland-Lithuania adopted Lutheranism, which I believe it came close to, such a union could be more feasible?

LOL! also yes, that would make an interesting timeline, the protestant/orthodox is kind of cool.

serebryakov · Feb 26, 2006

Imajin said:
Perhaps if Poland-Lithuania adopted Lutheranism, which I believe it came close to, such a union could be more feasible?

I wanted to suggest that also. This scenario raises two interesting questions. 1) Would that bring better relations (at least temporarily) with Orthodox Muscovy/Russia? (since both faiths consider the Whore of Rome an ArchEnemy) and 2) Would this TL see some sort of Orthodox Protestants?

Magnificate · Feb 26, 2006

Anwsering serebryakov questions:
1) Probably not, because there is bigger difference between orthodox and lutheranism than between orthodox and catholicism.
2) Probably yes, among Lithuanian nobility for example.

The main question remains:
Would it be easier to convert Poland to Lutheranism or to convert Sweden to Catholicism? I'd say the second option is easier.

Othniel · Feb 26, 2006

Magnificate said:
Anwsering serebryakov questions:
1) Probably not, because there is bigger difference between orthodox and lutheranism than between orthodox and catholicism.
2) Probably yes, among Lithuanian nobility for example.

The main question remains:
Would it be easier to convert Poland to Lutheranism or to convert Sweden to Catholicism? I'd say the second option is easier.

I'm not sure, Livonia's Order of the Brethen of the sword converted from Catholism to Lutherianism earlier, and Poland was in the Northern end of the reformation... now while Sweden did histoically convert back, I'd like you to notice that several times the Swedes did raids against the P-L...seeing that the easiest way to keep them in union is to elect the King of Sweden to the throne of P-L....if Sweden is Protestant at the time we could see that spilling over into Poland-Lithuanian.

radical_neutural · Feb 26, 2006

wasn't the whole reason the teutonic order fell apart because of questions over lutherianism vs catholicism? bah! the history in that area is so confusing sometimes...

AuroraBorealis · Feb 27, 2006

Stefan Bathory...

Have Solikowski's attempt to see Stefan Bathory on the eve of his coronation fail. Stefan pursues and even-handed course as per OTL, but remains a protestant. He becomes a rallying point for the various Polish Protestant churches resisting the more reactionary elements of the Counter-reformation, though not preventing it.

When Sigismund II comes to the throne there should be an influential Protestant lobby to deal with that ensures he will respect their liberties if he wants to ascend the throne. Polish and Swedish Protestants combined will be a powerful lobby within the Commonwealth when Sigismund ascends the throne of Sweden. It should alleviate some of the Swedish concerns regarding any potential plans of Sigismund to re-Catholicize Sweden, and take some of the wind out of the sails of the anti-Sigismund forces in Sweden.

A marriage down the road between Christina and Jan Kasimir, despite the age gap, would be a natural to unite the two halves of the Vasa house in an improved atmosphere between Sweden and the Commonwealth. Mind you will Gustav Adolf get involved in the wars in Germany then, and die without a male heir. Mind you, just get him to die in some conflict with Muscovy instead, preferrably a joint campaign with the Commonwealth.

The counter-reformation will still proceed at a slower pace in Poland but religious toleration will be the order of the day in the Commonwealth. Eventually some equilibrium between Orthodox, Roman Catholic and Protestants is achieved that respects the laws of the Commonwealth. Instead of seeking to undermine them to further their own religious ends.

Ian the Admin · Feb 27, 2006

radical_neutural said:
no, don't forget it. forget him and his crackhead ways.

The last time you insulted somebody for no reason, and I kicked you for it, and I said "next time I'll ban you", I meant it.

Gone.

Magnificate · Feb 27, 2006

Suppose something like:

1575 – Stefan Batory becomes king of Poland. He does not convert to Catholicism.
1576 - Coronation of Stephen Báthory and Anna the Jagiellonian (Was marriage of catholic and protestant possible at this time? This is important because Batory was only a defacto king, throught a marriage with Anna. Also would protestant Batory antagonise enough catholic nobility to made them support Maximilian Habsburg, and force his scanditure by military action?)
1582 - Livonian war ends as OTL (or maybe slighty more in favor of Russia, because of lesser polish morale)
(circa 1583) – Warsaw Confederation documents are rewritren to include proper exucitive laws, so that tolerance of different religions is enforced better (this didn’t happen in OTL, due to small protestant influence)
1586 – Batory dies
1587 - Zygmunt III Vasa becomes king of Poland

and then what?

Does synod of Uppsala take place. What about it’s decisions? (Are they firmly pro-protestant as in OTL, or are they more pro-catholic since there is less fear of forced counter-reformation?)
What about union of Brest. Does it take place, and is it succesful, or at least partially succesful?
Polish-Sweden war versus Muscovy is probable in this timeline (joint victories will cement friendship between two countries), but wouldn’t that divert attantion away from Ottoman Empire (which threated Poland-Lithuania, but not Sweden )
Assuming Sigimund III Vasa secures both Swedish and Polish thrones, and assuming Gustavus Adolphus birth is not butterfied away, is it possible to elect him as polish-lithuanian monarch? (or should Wladislaw IV Vasa, Sigimund’s son, be elected as in OTL)

Timelines are appreciated.

AuroraBorealis · Feb 27, 2006

Magnificate said:
Suppose something like:

1575 – Stefan Batory becomes king of Poland. He does not convert to Catholicism.
1576 - Coronation of Stephen Báthory and Anna the Jagiellonian (Was marriage of catholic and protestant possible at this time? This is important because Batory was only a defacto king, throught a marriage with Anna. Also would protestant Batory antagonise enough catholic nobility to made them support Maximilian Habsburg, and force his scanditure by military action?)
1582 - Livonian war ends as OTL (or maybe slighty more in favor of Russia, because of lesser polish morale)
(circa 1583) – Warsaw Confederation documents are rewritren to include proper exucitive laws, so that tolerance of different religions is enforced better (this didn’t happen in OTL, due to small protestant influence)
1586 – Batory dies
1587 - Zygmunt III Vasa becomes king of Poland

and then what?

Does synod of Uppsala take place. What about it’s decisions? (Are they firmly pro-protestant as in OTL, or are they more pro-catholic since there is less fear of forced counter-reformation?)
What about union of Brest. Does it take place, and is it succesful, or at least partially succesful?
Polish-Sweden war versus Muscovy is probable in this timeline (joint victories will cement friendship between two countries), but wouldn’t that divert attantion away from Ottoman Empire (which threated Poland-Lithuania, but not Sweden )
Assuming Sigimund III Vasa secures both Swedish and Polish thrones, and assuming Gustavus Adolphus birth is not butterfied away, is it possible to elect him as polish-lithuanian monarch? (or should Wladislaw IV Vasa, Sigimund’s son, be elected as in OTL)

Timelines are appreciated.

It was Anna who was initially elected king in OTL and she did marry Stefan Bathory, a Prince in his own right in Transylvania. By all accounts he was popular and had plenty of his own wealth and a support among the influential nobility, protestant and Catholic alike. Transylvania has already adopted religious toleration. Extending it to the Commonwealth was a natural for him.

If he remains Protestant, He might still allow the Jesuits in to set up their acadamies but he will need to be more forceful in resisting the efforts of the Synod of Piotrkow in preventing a decree of excommunication for those practicing or espousing religious toleration. That decree will have to be defeated. It did after all go against the laws of the Commonwealth.

I need to look up the Union of Brest and the Uppsala synod in more detail but as to heirs: After Sigismund tradition in the Commonwealth would dictate electing one of the heirs of the previous monarch ( though that is not engraved in stone) It is still likely that Wladislaw and Jan Casimir will follow in that order. Karl IX would still be the principle representative of the Vasa's in Sweden, so Gustaf Adolf will still rise to prominence at some point. The Poles will prefer a Piast king though descended from the Jagiellonians if possible. the Swedes a Vasa. hence there will eventually have to be some kind of reunion between the two houses of Vasa to cement the Union. Thats why Christina and Jan would need to marry and produce an heir. I am not sure the union would hold if Karl X is elected king of Sweden following Christina's death without heir.

Sigismund is going to have to spend a grt deal of time shuttling between Stockholm and Warsaw, perhaps even Vilnius to cement his position. I doubt he would have a single capital. A single imperial city would have to come later, one of the Baltic cities( Gdansk, Riga or Konigsberg(provided you can keep it from being inherited by the Hohenzollerns) or perhaps Vilnius)

AuroraBorealis · Feb 27, 2006

Synod of Uppsala

I think your right that it would be best if the Synod went a bit differently.

Have Martensson be made primate in Uppsala instead of Angermannus ( He was not the choice of either the King or Karl IX) and therefore responsible for calling the Synod to reform the Church practices adopted under Johan III to take on a more protestant (read moderate Lutheran) view of the middle ground between Protestants and Catholics as opposed to johan III's more Catholic road. Have the view esposed by some prominent Polish protestants with the view that it should become the common creed of the Polish protestants as well since it will strengthen their hand in the Commonwealth vis-a-vis the Genevan and Bohemian confessions.

Karl will still be the focus of the Ultra Protestant forces but like Gustav I Sigismund could find his support among the peasantry and a handful of the more moderate Protestant nobility backed up by Martensson. You end up with a more Lutheran version of the English church perhaps that could go on to become the dominant faith through Sweden, the Baltic provinces and the Commonwealth.

Another side note.... I think its likely your commonwealth will become quadripartite in this TL. Lithuanians and Swedes will find common cause in preventing the overall dominance of Poland itself, Therefore the proposal to create a separate Duchy of Ruthenia will likely be adopted here. This could have the side effects of stabilizing the Ottoman frontier for a while ( Though its likely the Crimean Tartars will eventually become part of the Commonwealth) and stiffening the Eastern frontier against Muscovy. In the north the Swedish/Commonwealth union could probably gain karelia and parts of the core of Novgorod but not much beyond that without a complete conquest of Muscovy (which is probably unlikely) itself.

AuroraBorealis · Feb 27, 2006

Union of Brest....

Thoughts on the Union of Brest.

Probably will not occur at the time that it did OTL. With a stonger Protestant presence and a continuation of their liberties within the Commonwealth. the Othodox will almost certainly point to them and request the same respect for their liberties. Religious toleration being the order of the day, Sigismund III can hardly disagree as much as he might like to.

However, I would not rule it out completely. It could be requested by the King/Queen down the road as a prid pro quo for the formation of a separate Duchy of Ruthenia and perhaps to stem the tide of creeping Lutheranism ( even a moderate version of it) on the Reformed Catholic Church and Orthodox of the Swedish/P-L Commonwealth Union. Probably mid-late 1600's as things heat up on the Muscovite frontier.

By the way, would we even get Swedish intervention in the 30 Yrs war this time around. I am not sure that Sigismund or Wladislaw will want to exacerbate potential tensions within his own realm. It would be in their interests to have that conflict end quickly before the tensions get too out of hand, say during the Bohemian phase. Intervening even if only diplomatically on behalf of the Winter King would seem to be the best option for nipping it in the bud, but I am not sure they would choose that. There would probably be alot of initial wariness at the whole prospect to begin with.

tinfoil · Feb 27, 2006

What about having Gustavus Adolphus survive Lutzen in 1632 and going on to found an empire as you described? One could easily resolve a '31 years war' where he is successful in poland/lithuania but then loses central brandenburg/saxony/etc to a hapsburg/french coalition.