Challenge: Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth Survives

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The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was one of the most powerful, populous, and richest empires in Europe throughout most of its history (1540s-1795). Compromising the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Commonwealth was a Noble's Democracy (the Commonwealth styled itself the Most Serene Republic) - ie, a constitutional monarchy, with a legislative branch (the Sejm, or gathering) consisting of two chambers, with certain protections for the common man. Also of interest to a modern (democratic) eye is that the Commonwealth was marked by high levels of ethnic diversity and by unusual religious tolerance for the period.

The Commonwealth entered a period of slow but steady decline around 1648, mostly due to the raise of Russia to the east, Sweden to the North, and various internal struggles (though a joint Commonwealth-Holy Roman campaign drove the Ottoman Turks south of the Danube in the Great Turkish War of 1662-99). The Commonwealth eventually became a vassal of Russia between the time of Peter the Great and Catherine the Great. An attempt at reform was made in 1791, with a massive constitutional rewrite that year (which has been described as the second oldest codified national constitution of modern history), but it was too late - the Commonwealth was partitioned between Prussia, Russia and Austria between 1793 & 1795.

So, what if this interesting if little-known European power with plenty of potential survives, or at least lives a little bit longer ;) How does this come about, and how does it affect European history? How does it affect world history for that matter - would the a more powerful, more stable Commonwealth support the American or French Revolutionaries? Does the Commonwealth live onto become the 'Sick Man of Europe'?

Another thing to keep in mind; a number of serious attempts, by both parties, to unite the Commonwealth and Muscovy into a Polish-Lithuanian-Muscovite Commonwealth took place between 1547 and 1658, but ultimately came to no avail due to incomplete demands on both sides. Russia strictly opposed the religious tolerance of the Commonwealth, and the Tsar was not interested in giving the boyars any liberties. On the other side the Commonwealth (the Poles for the most part, if the surviving literature is correct) were unwilling to entertain the idea of a Muscovite-Russian as King as a precondition of a personal union between the two powers. The most promising time for a potential union was the early 17th century during the reign of Boris Godunov, just before the beginning of the Time of Troubles (1598-1613).

Another attempt to expand the borders of the Commonwealth was to raise the Ruthenian voivodeship (governorship) to the level of a Duchy, making it a full partner in the Commonwealth. Interestingly, the major push for Rutheian Duchy was from the Poles, as a way to maintain Polish rule in the area during the 1648-57 Khmelnytsky Uprising; though in the long-term this would have considerably weakened Polish dominance in the Commonwealth. The Sejm and King even went as far as to sign an Treaty of Hadiach with the Cossack leadership; however this lead to the Russo-Polish War (1654–1667), as Tsar Alexis opposed increased Polish influence over 'his' cossacks - even before it was ratified he sent an army into Rutheia. Between several indecisive battles, the situation was further complicated by the Ottoman Empire, which tried to gain control of the disputed region and played all factions against each other. In the end, Russia was victorious, gaining control of the region and cossacks, and weakening both the Commonwealth and the Ottomans.

So, lots of potential with the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. What happens, where and when, and why?

Edit: Edited to make it clear that I was making a challenge focused on making Poland-Lithuania last longer, and not the states that border it at the time (such as the Ottomans {who actually need to be cut short to make this challenge succeed, IMO}) ;)
 
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Well first thing is that the countries surrounding it are extremely interested in splitting it. So we are going to see a fairly large amount of tension in Eastern Europe for a long time. Perhaps when Catherine the Great rolls around she will ignore the Ottomans for a while and hit Polish-Lithuania instead. This would allow the Ottoman Empire to keep its strength for a while longer.
 
It has been my observation that Russia nickled and dimed its neighbors. That Russia was a greedy bear trying to take everybody's land. Some in the Imperial government even had eyes for expanding into India. I'm bashing Imperial Russia for a reason. If they could be removed, or just severely weakened, I suspect that that would go a long ways in keeping Poland-Lithuania, and the Ottoman Empire, in the game longer. That's not to say Prussia and Austria wouldn't go after it, but it just seems to me that the Tsars were really grabby.
 
It has been my observation that Russia nickled and dimed its neighbors. That Russia was a greedy bear trying to take everybody's land. Some in the Imperial government even had eyes for expanding into India. I'm bashing Imperial Russia for a reason. If they could be removed, or just severely weakened, I suspect that that would go a long ways in keeping Poland-Lithuania, and the Ottoman Empire, in the game longer. That's not to say Prussia and Austria wouldn't go after it, but it just seems to me that the Tsars were really grabby.


They were, but they didn't really need to grab Poland, which from the Northern war onward was pretty much a Russian satellite anyway.

Best way imho is to get rid of Prussia. Say Frederick the Great gets killed in some Seven Years war battle, and Prussia is carved up between the other powers. Austria alone would probably not be strong enough (or maybe inclined) to insist on a partition, so Poland goes on into at least the Napoleonic period. After that is anybody's guess, but maybe it goes on with one of the Tsar's relatives as king.
 
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Getting rid of Prussia isn't a necessity IMO, making Prussia (-BrandenBurg) weaker is an option, so a less successful Prussia for instance Prussia never gains Silesia. Although Prussia will try to use an opportunity to gain Polish Royal Prussia to unite their domains...

Furthermore IMHO the PLC might gain stability in the long run if they stay a hereditary monarchy. Maybe Sigismund II has a son?
 
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Susano

Banned
Prussia was just so barely accepted as Great Power after the Silesian Wars, surely as weakest among the Pentarchy. It could never have acted uniliterally aggressive against Poland. It required Russia for that. OTOH, Russia was in a position to act uniliterally, it just preferred to get partners on board. So I dont think killing off or even weakening Prussia is really necessary. Russia is indeed the problem. However, once Muscovy has united Russia, its rise as Great Power is rather inevitable, and sabotaging Muscovy would require a rather very early PoD. So that is difficult. What we hence need is a PLC (which would be best described as Aristocracy - while it used republic it wasnt really one because it had a king, and it surely wasnt a democracy. Nobles democracy is even a contradiction in terms) that can stand up to Russia on its own.

The Ruthenian/Cossack plans have been discussed now and then here, but I dont see them helping much with retaining the area. After all, it wasnt lost due to revolution but due to foreign conquest. OTOH, what has also been discussed here, and what I think most people here (especially the Poles) see as central reason for the PLCs decline is the Great Deluge in mid-17th century, as it apparently killed off a good portion of the population and devastated the economy. So if that particular catastrophic event can be avoided, maybe...

Of course there is also the possibility of the PLC surviving as a minor power. The three partition powers after all didnt plan for a complete partition from the beginning. In 1772, they just wanted to nibble at the borders, so to say. So its IMO very much possible to have a PoD after the First Partition, even. Now, it is a matter of discussion wether the reform movements in the Commonwealth were a pretext or a genuine reason (due to fears after the French Revolution) for the three partition powers to completly finish the PLC off, but in any case if the French Revolution is avoided that might also avoid the Second and Third Partition. Of course, it would also have far more wide-reaching consequences than that...

Oh, and seeing how Jan spoke of the monarchy - Of course what might also help as a late PoD is to have the Wettins not being so friggen incompetent. I mean, seriously. They had the most prosperous country in the HRE (measured per inhabitant or square mile), with all the wealth of the Ore Mountains, and they had the royal title of Poland - and they did absolutely nothing with it. They squandered the whole money on the court, on parties and on gems. And not only one ruler, but for some reason the entire line starting with August the Strong. Really, they had far better conditions to rise to great power status than Brandenburg-Prussia, but gave it away due to incompetence. Surely, there must be a possibility to change the personality of at least one Wettin to make him a competent or even great ruler, creating a strong central authority and hereditary monarchy in the PLC, and leading Poland(-Lithuania)-Saxony to great power status.
 
Originally posted by Susano
Surely, there must be a possibility to change the personality of at least one Wettin to make him a competent or even great ruler, creating a strong central authority and hereditary monarchy in the PLC, and leading Poland(-Lithuania)-Saxony to great power status.

Or perhaps give them a Saxon Richelieu - very competent prime minister, capable of keeping the king happy and nation prosperous at the same time. Creating an hereditary monarchy per se in PLC might not be possible in early 1700s, but if a Saxon monarch proves to be popular ruler it is very possible Polish-Lithuanian noblemen would elect his son. That is how Vasa and Wettin dynasty landed on Polish throne.
 

Susano

Banned
Well, the Hereditariness business is not that important - as youve said, there existed de facto dynasties in the PLC anyways. However, strengthening the kings authority over the nobles would I think be rather important. Even the most brillant monarch or the best Richelieu ;) will have no effect if they have not enough power...
 
Well, the Hereditariness business is not that important - as youve said, there existed de facto dynasties in the PLC anyways. However, strengthening the kings authority over the nobles would I think be rather important. Even the most brillant monarch or the best Richelieu ;) will have no effect if they have not enough power...

What about replacing the Wettins by the Hohenzollerns? Instead of managing to make Prussia a kingdom, Frederick I decides to convert to Catholicism and become king of Poland in order to get a royal title. Of course, it would need a change of character too.
 
According to wikipedia (;)) the PLC was a hereditary monarchy from 1569-1573 and 1791-1795, so the PLC started out and ended that way.

OTOH IIRC the Austrian Habsburgs achieved to turn the elective monarchies Bohemia and Hungary into hereditary monarchies. Of course it took quite some time and in Hungary's case liberating the other half of the kingdom from the Ottomans helped a lot.

The only real advantage of the hereditary monarchy is that it improves the chance of stronger a central authority. However it must have been important for the rulers, the last two stadtholders of the Dutch Republic were hereditary stadtholders...

BTW was the successor of the king elected during the current monarch's reign or after the dead of the monarch?
 
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Prussia was just so barely accepted as Great Power after the Silesian Wars, surely as weakest among the Pentarchy. It could never have acted uniliterally aggressive against Poland. It required Russia for that. OTOH, Russia was in a position to act uniliterally, it just preferred to get partners on board. So I dont think killing off or even weakening Prussia is really necessary. Russia is indeed the problem. However, once Muscovy has united Russia, its rise as Great Power is rather inevitable, and sabotaging Muscovy would require a rather very early PoD. So that is difficult.


Russia is a problem for Poland's total independence, but not for its existence.

The Wettins were near enough Russian puppets, so Russia didn't need to partition Poland. She controlled the whole country in all but name. She didn't take Prussia and Austria into partnership. They (with FtG leading) imposed themselves on her, insisting on a share of Poland to balance Russia's growing power.

IOW, the Prussian and Austrian shares were in effect territory ceded by Russia, while her own share was territory which she already ruled indirectly even before the partitions.
 
If I could add my 3 dinars, Susano said the Deluge was the greatest blow, and solving the Cossack issue wouldn't help much. Well, Deluge was the greatest blow indeed, but the Khmelnitsky Uprising was devastating too. As was the Russian invasion it triggered. I also read that Charles chose the Commonwealth as the target of his invasion because of it's weakness, he considered Russia too.

I say, creating of a separate Ruthenian/Cossack unit in the PLC, may very well bring many positive changes. However, it will be hard, very hard to force it on the nobility, who was opposed to such changes. Perhaps an earlier uprising, when everyone else is busy could help.

Also, it wasn't the Ruthenian voivodship that would be given a duchy status, but three easternmost voivodships of the Polish Crown: Kiev, Bratslav and Chernigov. Ruthenian voivodship lied around Lwów/Lviv/Lemberg/Lwow/Ilov And I don't think it would have weakened the Crown, quite the opposite.


Other than that, slowing the reforms so that PLC lasts until Napoleon is a decent way to keep it alive, and a plausible one.
 

Susano

Banned
What about replacing the Wettins by the Hohenzollerns? Instead of managing to make Prussia a kingdom, Frederick I decides to convert to Catholicism and become king of Poland in order to get a royal title. Of course, it would need a change of character too.
That would be very much out of character for Frederick, though. He wanted very much to gain a royal crown, but he was also a pious Calvinist and wouldnt change his religion for anything (in stark contrast to his more pragmatic son and practically atheist grandson). So that would require as much a pesonality change as a competent Wettin ;) And purely by the German territory entered into the personal union as said Saxony is the way better choice...

I say, creating of a separate Ruthenian/Cossack unit in the PLC, may very well bring many positive changes. However, it will be hard, very hard to force it on the nobility, who was opposed to such changes. Perhaps an earlier uprising, when everyone else is busy could help.
Hm. But could it really stop Russian ambitions in the area?
 
Of course it couldn't, but the Poles should do their best to keep Ukraine out of Russian hands, cause Russia with the Ukraine gets really scary. Besides, when they took it, it was after the mid-XVII collapse, until then Poles were doing just fine so I think they could hang on to it for quite a while.

Thing is, I have serious doubts about that actually happening, a real shock would be needed to force the Poles to do that. I heard opinions that even after Khmelnitsky's Uprising for many of the Szlachta the Treaty of Hadiach (which established a Ruthenian unit, but was never really implemented because of the Russians) was just a ceasefire, and they would reignite the civil war when ready. If it is true, I the whole thing may be ASB, cause that uprising was as much of a shock, as you can get.
 
That would be very much out of character for Frederick, though. He wanted very much to gain a royal crown, but he was also a pious Calvinist and wouldnt change his religion for anything (in stark contrast to his more pragmatic son and practically atheist grandson). So that would require as much a pesonality change as a competent Wettin ;) And purely by the German territory entered into the personal union as said Saxony is the way better choice...

Sure, I suggested it because my experience working with politicians showed me that rulers more often become pragmatic than competent.:p
 
Russia is the long-term problem indeed, the clash on the border over Rus lands was ongoing as long as Moscow and Lithuania existed.

However, by the 18th c. the Russians had Poland well in hand. Having Elizabeth live longer, no Miracle of the House of Brandenburg, could be the solution. Frederik deposed, Prussia-Brandenburg no longer a Power of any sort, and there's some interesting outcomes:

No threat of Austria+Prussia, Poland still intact or exchanging lands with Russia to ease any outstanding claims tensions, and it looks like there's no reason why the Russians would want to do anything more.
 
Russia is the long-term problem indeed, the clash on the border over Rus lands was ongoing as long as Moscow and Lithuania existed.

However, by the 18th c. the Russians had Poland well in hand. Having Elizabeth live longer, no Miracle of the House of Brandenburg, could be the solution. Frederik deposed, Prussia-Brandenburg no longer a Power of any sort, and there's some interesting outcomes:

No threat of Austria+Prussia, Poland still intact or exchanging lands with Russia to ease any outstanding claims tensions, and it looks like there's no reason why the Russians would want to do anything more.

The PLC didn't participate in the seven years war, so a Prussian defeat could lead to the restoration of Silesia to Austria (kingdom of Bohemia). This will reduce the Prussian threat, but not the Austrian threat, although Austria and the PLC could become allies.

BTW There always can be found a reason, if they really want to:rolleyes:...
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Russia, Prussia and Austria wasn't the Commonwealth problem, Poland was the main problem. No matter how much you weaken the three partipants, it doesn't change that it was the domestic institutions which was its problem. The partipants in the partipants could just as well have been Saxony, Sweden and Hungary if we weaken the original partipants. Poland-Lithuania need rather radical reforms and not in the 18th century, at that point it was too late. Of course we can see many states which had the same weaknesses as Poland, like Brandenburg, Austria, Denmark and France as example, but they all found different ways around, through the result was usual the same a strong absolut state. Of course there was other states like Mecklenburg which didn't adapt either, but they was saved by the pure worthlessness of their domain or the HRE which was split up into a multitude of small states.

The states which adapt usual got some ugly wake up calls, in Denmarks case the Dano-Swedish Wars, for Brandenburg the destruction of the 30YW, for France and Austria the religeous wars of the 16th century.
 
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The PLC didn't participate in the seven years war, so a Prussian defeat could lead to the restoration of Silesia to Austria (kingdom of Bohemia). This will reduce the Prussian threat, but not the Austrian threat, although Austria and the PLC could become allies.

Austrian+PLC alliance is pretty dangerous for PLC, they have to rely on the Austrians not betraying their interests against Russia.

PLC+Russia vs. Austria alone, Austria won't try anything, Russia already has what it wants, far more than it will get through partitioning it, but yes, the situation could of course change.

In any case, the later you go, the more difficult this becomes.

EDIT: that, and what Valdemar said. Poland's big wakeup should have been the Deluge, but it hit them too hard.
 
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