Challenge: Poland retakes Danzig in the 20s

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to arrange a military or diplomatic takeover of the city of Danzig with a POD no earlier than January 1920. Try to avoid suicidal scenarios - the less political fallout and bloodshed the better.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
They just invade in the early 20s. Germany wouldn't be able to do shit without angering France, and the League of Nations would just condemn Poland's actions. The only reason Poland neve outright annexed Danzig was to keep up good relations with France and Britain.
 
They just invade in the early 20s.
Seems too easy. ;) Still Poland would need to either manufacture or capitalize on same sort of incident.
[...]the League of Nations would just condemn Poland's actions. The only reason Poland neve outright annexed Danzig was to keep up good relations with France and Britain.
What magnitude of repercussions could Poland expect from such an action?
 
Seems too easy. ;) Still Poland would need to either manufacture or capitalize on same sort of incident.

What magnitude of repercussions could Poland expect from such an action?

If Poland manages to fabricate something, or exploit some German movement? Who knows, the West may praise them if they play their cards right. If not, this may lead to more strained relations, but I think this would be forgotten when Hitler comes around (and God, will Hitler's foreign policy look more appealing to Germans after this)
 

yourworstnightmare

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Donor
Poland knew from the Vilnius question and the Teschen question that the League of Nations was useless in territorial disputes. Poland was quite expansionist in the early 20s, so if they though they could keep up their relations with France and Britain they'd go for it. OTL they feared relations with France and Britain would turn bad if they pulled such a stunt, and that's why they didn't.
 
France and Britain supported Poland when the invaded Russia why would they care if they invaded Danzig.
 
OK, first off, have ethnic violence and rioting in Gdansk. Yes, Gdansk. Since German authorities are clearly doing nothing to end the violence, the Poles use cavalry and machine guns to enforce martial law in the city. The International Community approves of this, especially after Pilsudski releases footage of tortured and dead Polish civilians in the streets. Picture Hitler victory in German elections earlier, more polonophobia among the German people, who wholeheartedly support an invasion. However, seeing the record of German panzers in Warsaw and other urban environments, I expect heavy urban fighting over the city before Polish troops finally surrender after about 4-5 weeks, similar to Westerplatte.
All in all, long-term effects are minimal, World War 2 will probably break out at a similar time. However, butterfly effect might change post-war Polish government in unpredictable ways (stronger commies, no commies, or Nazis win the war). Present Day historical revisionists use this as a way to blame Poland for World War 2.
 
Poland knew from the Vilnius question and the Teschen question that the League of Nations was useless in territorial disputes. Poland was quite expansionist in the early 20s, so if they though they could keep up their relations with France and Britain they'd go for it. OTL they feared relations with France and Britain would turn bad if they pulled such a stunt, and that's why they didn't.

I don't follow. Teschen ended up in Czech hands, no?
 
What magnitude of repercussions could Poland expect from such an action?

The shit hits the fan. The British will have no effective response to German demands to rearm, unless the League will implement sanctions on Poland.

The only way that you can really get this is if 1919, 1920 are more chaotic and messy, or if Germany collapses under the strain of the Ruhr occupation, say.
 
Here we go: the Bermondt-Avalov/Goltz army of Baltic Germans and Freikorps plus White Russians captures Riga in October/November 1919 instead of being driven back to Germany by the Latvian army. Then, instead of driving on Red Petrograd (as they claimed to intend to do), they stop and try to establish a pro-German Livonia in Latvia and Estonia (as the Latvians and Estonians suspected were their intentions).

The Entente, appalled, use their naval forces to help the new states of Estonia and Latvia get the upper hand, and to this end agree to help Poland cut the German forces in the east off from their overland supplies by letting them, even helping them, capture Danzig. Voila!

The complication is, of course, communist Russia. I'm not up to working that out just now.
 
OK, first off, have ethnic violence and rioting in Gdansk. Yes, Gdansk.

Why...

...have ethnic rioting in a city which had none OTL?

..."Gdansk", when Danzig is the most common English term and the name used by 95% of the citizens at the time? And yes, I would use the names Lwow and Wilno in the same period. You'll also note that Magnificate, who is, I believe, our most long-standing and respected Pole, is using the D-word.

Since German authorities are clearly doing nothing to end the violence,

Depending on what you mean by "German authorities" (ethnic or national?):

Why don't they?

They can't do jack shit.

the Poles use cavalry and machine guns to enforce martial law in the city.

The technical term is "massacre". Seriously, cavalry? With like, sabres?

The International Community approves of this, especially after Pilsudski releases footage of tortured and dead Polish civilians in the streets.

Why the **** is this even happening? Because Germans are evil and thirst for blood? And also, Poland will be in no position to talk about massacres after machine-gunning rioters with machine-guns.

Picture Hitler victory in German elections earlier, more polonophobia among the German people, who wholeheartedly support an invasion.

I'm picturing it.

Remind me why again?

However, seeing the record of German panzers in Warsaw and other urban environments, I expect heavy urban fighting over the city before Polish troops finally surrender after about 4-5 weeks, similar to Westerplatte.

What? When?

All in all, long-term effects are minimal, World War 2 will probably break out at a similar time. However, butterfly effect might change post-war Polish government in unpredictable ways (stronger commies, no commies, or Nazis win the war). Present Day historical revisionists use this as a way to blame Poland for World War 2.

To be fare, ITTL, Poland does appear to have rather brought its fate on itself. Of course we know it hasn't, but:

A) TTL historians don't.

B) That doesn't actually make it okay to cavary-charge and machine-gun rioters. Seriously, whut?
 
I don't follow. Teschen ended up in Czech hands, no?
I believe he wanted to empathize that when Poland acted on it’s own they managed to got Wilno, whereas in Cieszyn where Poland showed little activity the LoN didn’t even conduct the promised plebiscite.
Cieszyn, meaning Zaolzie or the majority of Cieszyn Silesia, indeed ended up in Czech hands. However the city itself was divided along the Olza river with Poland gaining the historical centre and Czechoslovakia gaining the railway station and industrial plants. Needless to say that hindered the development of both Polish Cieszyn and Český Těšín.
The only way that you can really get this is if 1919, 1920 are more chaotic and messy,
Indeed, in 1919 all you need to do is to allow Haller’s Blue Army to be transported via Danzig port instead of German railways. (You get butterflies on Polish-Bolshevik war as an added bonus.) Still, the challenge is to do so after 1920.
or if Germany collapses under the strain of the Ruhr occupation, say.
That would require some major POD, wouldn’t it?
Here we go: the Bermondt-Avalov/Goltz army of Baltic Germans and Freikorps plus White Russians captures Riga in October/November […] Voila!
Interesting idea, yet the POD is before 1920. ;)
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I don't follow. Teschen ended up in Czech hands, no?

Yup, and the League did not support the Polish claims. The same way they awarded Poland with Vilnius after they had taken it, they awarded Czechoslovakia with Teschen after the Polish- Czechoslovak war. They knew the League would just accept the changed situation.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Hmm. Locarno 1925 would be too late, since after Locarno there would be no diplomatic reason to bully the Germans. The Poles must act on Danzig before Locarno.
 
During the Franco-Belgian occupation, the resistance could get violent and a simmering underground war erupt, whereat Poland's moving into Danzig to "protect" (either its interests, or minorities' rights) would not get much negative comment, at least in Paris or Brussels. They just then refuse to leave, maybe "uncover" a Freikorps plot or somesuch

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Nietzsche

Banned
Poland invades Danzig, Poland is now 'The New Russia'. Aka, Eastern Europe's badguy that everyone will be happy to gang-pile when the time comes. And it's time will come. Germany was just given a get-out-of-jail free card because of this. After this, the German Arms industry is going to be busy refitting the army for their Vengeance War. Anschluss will look even more appetizing, and you might see it sooner since most of the world may even be sympathetic to the German cause. 'Well, look what happened to them. Those bloody Poles are running rampant in the East, who else can settle the slavs down?'

1936-1938, the Vengeance war occurs, depending on whos in power we see 1914 eastern border + Austria and Sudetenland, or, if we get a Hitler, Poland occupied for Lebensraum.

This might be the worse possible move for Poland to take.
 
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