Challenge: "New Lies for Old" plan sucessful

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoliy_Golitsyn#His_books

How Could the Soviet Union enact such a plan? The more conspiratorial-minded would say that it is still playing out among us, but I highly doubt it, as post-communist Russia has tarnished its image, and Europe has moved to the right instead of the left.

But let's say that in 84 or 85 Warsaw Pact countries launch their own "restructuring programs" and make a bid for the European Community.
For starters, the East German Government can "reform" and have a "negotiated reunification" with West Germany that would preserve some socialist institutions and maybe the SED will get a lot of popularity for its willingness to reform (maybe it will be portrayed as "the first to reform" in a concerted orchestration of "reforms"). Given that Leftism in strong in Germany, an electoral alliance of *PDS "reformists" and Western Leftists will garner a lot of votes and might eventually win. The Poles, Czechs, etc then work up a storm of Reforms, elect the "reform wing" of their socialist parties and beg for Western European assistance to help them economically. The Germans can then push for an "Atlantic to Urals" EU as De Gaulle once said.

But how to hasten Europe's separation from USA and Reagan? Maybe a major mishap involving US nukes stationed in E. Europe? Any suggestions?

I'd really like a TL around this. It's one of those conspiracies that could have been plausibly implemented.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoliy_Golitsyn#His_booksGiven that Leftism in strong in Germany, an electoral alliance of *PDS "reformists" and Western Leftists will garner a lot of votes and might eventually win.

First you need to make the "leftism" strong in Germany - because it isn't, and it was even weaker in 1985. First, what is "leftism"? The "Left" party, a combination of the "reformed SED" (PDS) and the split-off left wing of the social democrats, barely comes over 10% in federal elections. The fixed policy of social democrats is to NOT have any coalition with the Left. Only in the eastern states, where the Left is fairly strong, the SPD had a few instances where it forms a minority government tolerated by the Left.

The political fronts were even more hardened in 1985. Visiting GDR was fairly easy for the West Germans and they didn't go back with too good an impression concerning SED governance.
 
First you need to make the "leftism" strong in Germany - because it isn't, and it was even weaker in 1985. First, what is "leftism"? The "Left" party, a combination of the "reformed SED" (PDS) and the split-off left wing of the social democrats, barely comes over 10% in federal elections. The fixed policy of social democrats is to NOT have any coalition with the Left. Only in the eastern states, where the Left is fairly strong, the SPD had a few instances where it forms a minority government tolerated by the Left.

The political fronts were even more hardened in 1985. Visiting GDR was fairly easy for the West Germans and they didn't go back with too good an impression concerning SED governance.

Well, from an American perspective, the fact that "the left" party even gets ~10% of the vote is remarkable. :p But yes, your point about "leftism" not being that strong is valid, and I frankly I don't know a lot about German politics.

But my interpretation of the scenario has the POD that GDR (and other eastern states) having their own Gorbachevs who gain a lot of popularity in the west for their reforms. If a reformed SED with its Gorbachev-like figure is a non-starter, they could have a gone for a Yeltsin-type figure from one of the other parties (There was, if I remember, a "multiparty charade" in the GDR) who is secretly on the KGB and Stasi payrolls. In fact that was what Golitisin thought would happen.

Any more suggestions on how it can work?
 
Well, from an American perspective, the fact that "the left" party even gets ~10% of the vote is remarkable. :p But yes, your point about "leftism" not being that strong is valid, and I frankly I don't know a lot about German politics.

FPTP system prevents the nutters in USA from starting their own party, so they simply hide in a large one - or to subvert it to their goals. You have your own nutters too, on the left and on the right - don't worry. :p They are just organized differently.

But my interpretation of the scenario has the POD that GDR (and other eastern states) having their own Gorbachevs who gain a lot of popularity in the west for their reforms. If a reformed SED with its Gorbachev-like figure is a non-starter, they could have a gone for a Yeltsin-type figure from one of the other parties (There was, if I remember, a "multiparty charade" in the GDR) who is secretly on the KGB and Stasi payrolls. In fact that was what Golitisin thought would happen.

For this you need to start believing that the eastern bloc countries were just will-less puppets of Moscow. They weren't. They were more dependent on the USSR than Nato countries on USA, but the difference was one of degree, not of quality. Most WP countries at one or another point openly defied Moscow and got away with it. GDR had an own nuclear program (It is not clear whether the goal was a bomb or "simply" a capability to build one just in case). Romania led separate secret negotiations with USA concerning their behaviour in case of a WW3. Bulgaria expelled their Turks in the 1980s against an explicite "urging" from Moscow. Back to the GDR - they refused to go along with the Perestroika and tightened up the totalitarian screws considerably between 1985 and 1989, despite Gorbachov's exhortations. As long as a country's government didn't publically threaten to defect to the other camp, they did whatever they wanted.
Let's not speak about Uzbekistan and Andropov's corruption investigation, or Turkmenbashi's activities well before 1989...

So for the premise you need some kind of global communist hive mind with no ambitions of their own, instead of men (and a couple of women) who simply used the Communist system to rise to power. Otherwise you would have a political free-for-all. Don't forget that by 1989 there is no real control mechanism for Moscow to keep "reforming" WP members in line without endangering the "reforming" process.

To defend Golitsyn, most we know about the centrifugal forces within the WP and the Soviet Union was not publically known, or not known at all, at the time he wrote the book. It was actually the reform movement that exposed the weaknesses and inconsistencies of the Warsaw Pact system to the public. They were really good at keeping up appearances back then.
 
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