Challenge: Neutral Italy

How could we get Italy to be neutral in the Cold War like its neighbours Austria and Switzerland? POD after WWII.

I really don't see why Italy was part of NATO. It's not as if the Soviets were going to invade them.
 
Seems like all you have to do is tweak an election such that there's a larger Communist Party representation. Not a controlling majority, mind you, but enough that PCI votes are needed in a coalition government. The PCI refuses to join NATO, so the coalition votes against joining in order to gain PCI support on some other measure more important to the coalition's goals.
 
But neither Austria or Sweden needed a significant domestic Communist factor to declare neutrality. Neither did France and it withdrew from NATO to pragmatically enhance its security.

What was the rationale for Italy joining NATO? Italy served as a major strategic weapon base, it seems risky to paint a target on yourself when there's no chance of a Soviet invasion.
 
But neither Austria or Sweden needed a significant domestic Communist factor to declare neutrality. Neither did France and it withdrew from NATO to pragmatically enhance its security.

What was the rationale for Italy joining NATO? Italy served as a major strategic weapon base, it seems risky to paint a target on yourself when there's no chance of a Soviet invasion.

I'm sure you don't NEED a stronger PCI to make Italy non-NATO, but that's one easy and IMO plausible way to fill the requirements of the challenge. I'm sure there are others.

Can't speak to WHY Italy joined NATO. Diplomatic pressure post-Marshall, perhaps?
 
, it seems risky to paint a target on yourself when there's no chance of a Soviet invasion.


Perhaps not outright invasion but I think they knew if their northern neighbors were overrun it was just only a matter of time before Stalin starting making demands. Demands backed by a few million red army soldiers on her border. A lot was unknown in 49 as well, such as just where Yugoslavia would figure and that's potentially a Soviet 'enemy' just across the Adriatic. Couple that with diplomatic pressure and I can see why the country might have been 'inclined' to join.
 
How could we get Italy to be neutral in the Cold War like its neighbours Austria and Switzerland? POD after WWII.

I really don't see why Italy was part of NATO. It's not as if the Soviets were going to invade them.

Italy joined NATO because the USA needed military bases in the peninsula. Let's be clear, when Italy joined NATO, 1949 IIRC, the foreign policy was strictly pro-american and it could not be any different since the reconstruction depended on the Marshall plan. USA needed the bases in order to control the mediterrean, since, as Mussolini said, Italy is a great "unsinkable air carrier". With a good fleet and air force (which the newborn NATO had in spade) you can control easily the whole sea. Italy was also useful to keep tabs over Yugoslavia.
In 1949, besides, Spain was still under Franco's regime and unavailable by NATO without some seriouos politic acrobatics, Greece was in the middle of an armed struggle with comunist partisans and Turkey still considered neutrality a better choice (they joined only in 1952 alongside Greece).

In exchange for her partecipation, Italy gained a fast track in the foreign policy, being "rehabilated" faster than Germany and Japan. Just to make an example, the italian army was rearmed well before the german one. It also played a part into the attribution of the "contested land" as Trieste. Finally Italy gained protection from Yugoslavia: the possibility of a conflict were low, but it would have been quite ugly for both the nations.
Please note that the italian goverment of the time was glad to be part of the NATO, not only for the above mentioned advantages, but also because lent them a protection against a possible communist uprising.

Switzerlandand Sweden were neutral during WW2 and had made of their policy of absolute neutrality their best shield. In other words, USA had no strong enough leverage over them.
Austria is a different kettle of fish. First it was an occupied country until 1955, when Russia and USA reached an agreement over her future: independent, but absolutely neutral. Neither of the two blocks would have accepted a different solution. Austria was in effect used as "neutral ground" during cold war.

In essence is quite difficult to have Italy not to join NATO, since it was a profitable step for both the parties involved. A possible POD could be to butterfly away the Cold War and so the need for NATO itself, but with a POD after 1945 seems to me a bit tricky (Stalin dies early and his successor is a reasonable guy? Mmh, bit far fetched).

As for having Italy leave NATO after 1949, let me say that it would be quite difficult.
First: having the communists in the goverment won't do the trick. If at any point in italian history between 1948 and the end of the seventies, the PCI had enough votes to gain the control of the country or become part of a coalition the only result would have been a military coup followed by a bout of civil war with a possible military intervention of NATO troops. There were back up plans in case of such evenience.
Second: the mutual need that made Italy join NATO were well alive until the fall of comunism in Russia. The italian politicians had too much to gain from this alliance to let it go. And there was no DeGaulle in Italy post-war.

In order to have Italy leave NATO and follow a neutral independent policy, we should have the USA commit a Huge diplomatic blunder, a slap so strong that no goverment, no matter how weak, could ignore. It must be the USA since no other member could cause such decision (at very worst, Italy would follow Greece example and retire troops).

A possible timeline could be the following:

In the night between the 7th and 8th december 1970, Junio Valerio Borghese, ex-commander of the Xa MAS, tried to seize power through a golpe. The plan made use of several NATO procedures in case of soviet invasion/ communist uprising). OTL the coup was halted at the very last minute (a group of soldiers were stopped just outside the National TV gates, while another group had already seized the armoury insiude the Minister of the interior), because the political support to the action and the CIA's assent was called back. Later it was discovered that the whole plan was a rrouse to let the current goverment declare martial law.

IATL, somethings goes wrong. The conjurates are discovered and fightings between them and carabinieri, loyal military units and police erupts. Unable to rein in his men, Borghese joins the fight, but he's mortally wounded, while most of his officers are captured and interrogated. Soon the truth comes out.
Initially the goverment tries to keep the lid down on the whole affair, but part of secreted documents are leaked to the free press. The public uproar is incredible: civil war is avoided but a narrow margin. The left in Italy is on warpath and gaining more consents every day.
The american president Johnson declares that the whole operation was a personal initiative of the local CIA officers, but his protests fall on deaf ears. The institution of a ad hoc cometee by the american senate is seen as an attempt to "bury everything under the sand".
Unable to salvage the situation, the italian prime minister, Mariano Rumor, decids to ride the tiger. In a public speech to the nation, he annouces that since the alliance with the USA was marred beyond salvation, so he had no other choice than announce that Italy was leaving NATO...
 
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Thanks for the explanation. It does seem Italy's position in NATO was both inevitable and profitable. Was Italy not terribly concerned of the Soviet nuclear threat from joining the alliance?
 
Was Italy not terribly concerned of the Soviet nuclear threat from joining the alliance?

Not really. Or, better, it was never an argument.

The problem is that Italy was one of the losers of WW2, even if its people had in the end revolted against the fascist regime. This meant that the political choices were limited.

De Gasperi, the prime minister of the time, needed the american support to stay on power. In 1947, for example, obtained a 150 millions of dollars loan.

Besides, Truman had declared that the USA were "ready to intervene in Italy to preserve democracy", while the american ambassador, Dunn, told without terms that the choice was easy: with us or against us. If the communist had won the 1948 elections, the USA would have retired the economical support or maybe would have propped up a coup if the political conditions would have allowed it.
 

Cook

Banned
Austria was divided into four zones of occupation after WW2 like Germany.
Austria’s neutrality was a condition for the withdrawal of Soviet forces and reunification in 1955.

http://www.europe-cities.com/en/728/austria/history/period5/

Khrushchev saw it as more beneficial to have a neutral Austria then one that was partially occupied by US Forces.

To get an Italy that was neutral perhaps you’d need it to be similarly occupied by the Four Powers at the end of the war. That would need a stronger southern push by the Red Army in ’45 or Stalin playing his hand really well at Yalta.
 
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