Challenge: Neutral Germany in WWI !

Just what the title says. With any POD after the German unification in 1871, have Germany sit out an ATL WWI. The ATL war can start at a different date, with different alliances and circumstances, etc. Jut leave Germany neutral in the conflict, choosing a tactic of reeping the benefits once the other powers get tired of the war and start suing each other for peace.
 
No alliance between Germany and Austria-Hungary in 1879 would be a start. Germany really had no interests in the Balkans, but sided with A-H in OTL only because of the alliance. At this point, World War I seems kind of limited... clearly Germany is neutral, which may lead to a neutral Ottoman Empire.

The alliance begins to look wild at this point, with definite Russia vs. Austria Hungary as OTL, with Britain and France serving as wildcards, perhaps opposing each other, likely Britain AGAINST Russia.

In short, no Germany, vastly different war.
 
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A pretty cool assessment ! :)

Any other thoughts on what the geopolitical goals and ties of Germany will be like, in Europe and the overseas colonies ? What will its culture be like ? What will its armed forces and military policies be like ?
 
Looking at the various national grudges and assuming a similar spark for the world war in the Balkans, it could go down something like this:

The League of the Three Emperors is abandoned after Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia fail to agree over Balkan policy. Contrary to OTL, Bismarck decides against sticking with AH in a Dual Alliance and instead prioritizes holding Russia at Germany's side in order to prevent a possible two-front war. So a strong German-Russian Alliance may persist for a while, which eventually leads to a lessening of war paranoia in and against Germany.
The Triple Alliance with Italy therefore never comes into being, and neither does the Franco-Russian Alliance and all the following military alliances. Instead, we would have a completely different set.

Possible war constellations over grudges:
1) Austria-Hungary against Serbia and Russia over influence in the Balkans
2) Italy joins in against Austria-Hungary over claims on Austrian territory in Trentino, etc.
3) Russia against Ottoman and British Empires over influence on Ottomans, and Middle East / Central Asia in general (i.e. Crimean War mkII)
4) British Empire against France over influence/control of colonies and imperial ambitions
5) Russia against Japanese over control of Manchuria (i.e. Russo-Japanese war mkII)

So we'd eventually end up with:
New Triple Alliance: British Empire, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, Japan
vs.
Franco-Russian Alliance & friends: Russia, France, Serbia, Italy
?
 
PoD after German unification is easy. Have the newly unified Germany (unification point being the Kaiser's coronation at Versailles during the war) not Annex Alsace and Moselle (treaty gives Germany full suzerainty on the Rhine, some minor border changes, some colonies and Alsace+Moselle have referendum on whether they prefer to become German, stay French or become independent ). That means no French revanchism, so no reason for an alliance network aimed at Germany. WWI can then be started for any other reason (pashoda, great game, ottoman dismantling... etc) and Germany just sit it out.

PoD after Frankfuhrt treaty is much more difficult.
 
PoD after German unification is easy. Have the newly unified Germany (unification point being the Kaiser's coronation at Versailles during the war) not Annex Alsace and Moselle (treaty gives Germany full suzerainty on the Rhine, some minor border changes, some colonies and Alsace+Moselle have referendum on whether they prefer to become German, stay French or become independent ). That means no French revanchism, so no reason for an alliance network aimed at Germany. WWI can then be started for any other reason (pashoda, great game, ottoman dismantling... etc) and Germany just sit it out.

PoD after Frankfuhrt treaty is much more difficult.

You will hardly find historians which say that AL was important for the breakout of ww1. Not that it makes good neighbourhood, but the assumption AL annexed=ww1 some decades later, would be wrong.

With or with out AL France would still see Germany as his main opponent on the continent and search for allies against it.
 
Would it be WWI without Germany ? -
Yeah, this is very much a question. You could have a major war (e.g. Fashoda goes hot; as I recall EdT's Fight and Be Right Timeline had an Alt-Fashoda spiral into a war of France and Russia vs. UK, Japan and Italy), but does it count as a "World War" if one of the top tier Great Powers sits it out?
 
Just what the title says. With any POD after the German unification in 1871, have Germany sit out an ATL WWI. The ATL war can start at a different date, with different alliances and circumstances, etc. Jut leave Germany neutral in the conflict, choosing a tactic of reeping the benefits once the other powers get tired of the war and start suing each other for peace.

Wilhelm IV of Prussia falls off a horse and breaks his neck during the Franco-Prussian War. His son Friedrich III succeeds, and agrees with Bismarck about not annexing Alsace and Lorraine. After the war ends, he gets rid of Bismarck and demilitarizes Germany (not completely of course). He raises his son Wilhelm to think the same way. By 1917 Germany has little more than a token army, and no interest in war.

The Great Game continues. Seven Great Powers.

Britain - neutral.

Austria-Hungary, Turkey, and France

versus

Japan, Italy, and Russia

???
 
The Second Crimean War

Germany is even closer to Austria-Hungary after unification and the Dual Alliance evolves into a EU type of situation between the two.

This peaceful, prosperous Mitteleuropa is disinterested in colonies and is also fairly isolationist. The orientation of Austria-Hungary is toward Germany and away from the Balkans where it's policy is purely defensive. There is no administration or subsequent annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The French and Russians ally but more as a hedge against Britain than Germany as both are conducting Great Games with that power in Africa and Asia.

War in the Balkans turns into a wider war involving the Great Powers except Germany and Austria-Hungary

Britain, Ottoman Empire (which has received British investment over the years to build it up as an ally)

vs

Russia, France, Serbia, Montenegro, Greece (maybe), Bulgaria

In this scenario, Italy is also neutral. They would love to get in and take Ottoman territory, but they don't want to cross the British.
 
Well, that's the most interesting part !

The main reason why I came up with this idea. Germany is so central to OTL WWI, that an ATL version without it seems downright alien a thought.

It's not only that, really. If we take the premises as they are - thinking about the consequences, more than the causes - I think that a neutral Germany simply defuses WWI. Great Britain is right out - it has no reason to enter, both de facto (no invasion of neutral and guaranteed Belgium) and in interests. France might be out as well, if Germany refuses war. Italy would be a possibility, but A-H could buy their neutrality to avoid changing a difficult enough war into a two-fronts war. In the end, it probably remains contained to Russia-Serbia vs. A-H.
 
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