A weaker, smaller or non-existent USSR would probaboly have the desired effect, perhaps resulting from the loyalists being stronger in the civil war, some sort of borderline being drawn with the USSR consiting of the areas around leningrad and with moscow being contested between loyalists bolsheviks and SR's and pro-tsarists holding the rest until both tsarist and bolshevik regimes broke down in the mid-20's to be replaced by a central russian republic and a range of ex-russian empire states and regions fill in the gap resulting in some interesting smaller states in the area. Some of which may be pro-bolshevik or even ''anarchist'' (would makhno still exist in the ukraine without the red army moving in for example) and others dominated by more nationalist independence movements of one sort or another.
Given that this way you wouldn't get a big communist party in germeny and therefore you'd have the SPD just about staying in power due to some popular front style manouevering with the Nazis remaining an unpleasant oppostion group. Thus you get germany's neutrality as it struggles with internal problems wracked as it is by what would be largely nationalist terrorism.
Without Nazi help the spanish civil war is longer and bloodier and starts a little later, weimar republic dithering and germany's unwilingness to fund or arm groups it sees as being ''a bit too revolutionary'' eventually means Franco finally ''wins'' the war in late 1940.
Turkey would by this point have expanded into the crimea with the absense of russian influence. Carving out what effectively amounts to a new ottoman empire. A stronger turkey results in ongoning conflicts with greece and the british empire.
Poland free from german intereference and the russian threat moves eastwards expanding its borders becoming a far more nationalist state as a whole.
Austria, Romania and Hungary remain as in OTL, nationalist regimes.
All in all in europe the axis would consist of Italy, Turkey, Spain, Austria, Hungary, Poland and Romania being the major ''fascist'' powers with some assistance from a few western russian sattelite states. Bearing in mind that fascism here generally resembles resurgent nationalism or at the most italian corporatism not national socialism.
Whereas the allies would consist of Britian, France, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and Greece and some assistance from the poverty stricken central russian republic
It seems logical that this sort of powder keg would go off sooner or later in the early to mid 40's, victory would be questionable and he war would be less mechanised than the war in OTL. You'd probably have colonial wars in north africa and eastern europe sparking off a full scale war between the two blocks with multiple fronts in the mediteranean, north africa, the balkans and eastern europe. It;d look good on a map i reckon.
To make it a world war we have to decide what occurs in the east however, japan is likely to be moving into eastern russia before it invades china. Japan would be focussed on china, where they would have to fight more open warfare at first but would advance quicker than OTL once they'd won opening victories since much opposition in OTL was based around the chinese communist party which would be sigificantly weaker here without the USSR. Japan would then be looking to take on British and French colonial interests now strecthed by the war in europe. In this timeline japan is unlikley to attack the US and bring them into the war, and the embargo has limited effects since japans advances in eastern russia and china are likely to secure them the resources they need albeit very slowly.
So it all hinges on what the US does. Do they
a) Remain isolationist
b) Attack japan
c) Do some form of deal with japan to carve up east asia
Some form of combination of a and c is most likely. B seems highly unlikley given that there isn't the motivation for it and the military build up neccessary took several years even in OTL, and thats without a slightly longer great depression and a lack of offensive action by Japan.
Thus its most probable that you get an axis victory here, with Britain slowly forced off the continent, france slowly falling to the weight of numbers and multiple fronts it would face from this ATL axis, the rest of europe and north africa is also conquered and the far east belongs in part to the empire of the rising sun.