Challenge: Minimize Post-Cold War Sino-Russian Cooperation

Long time frenemies the PRC and Russian Federation have had a checkered history at times standing United against America and at times coming to arm's against each other(ie; Ussuri border skirmish).

Ongoing today the frenemies have extensive trade ties which has helped Russia defy sanctions over it's invasion of Ukraine while currency swap agreements have reduced their dependency on the dollar. Militarily and politically the frenemies have formed an implicit pact to support the other in most instances such as joint naval drills in 2016, China's increasing support for Russia in the Crimea, and Russia's support for Chinese projection into the South China Sea. But despite official declarations of goodwill Chinese-Russian relations have been limited by mutual suspicions, pricing concerns, inadequate transportation infrastructure, and competition for influence in central Asia. There is great potential for the relationship to go either way but what would be in your opinion be the best way to drive a wedge between Russia and China for America?

Of course somethings, such as Russia's need to diversify mineral and energy exports and China's desire for them won't change barring large upheavals and some level of interaction will occur regardless.

Other things, such as the Post-Tiananmen Square EU arms embargo driving China towards Russia for its military supply might be a bitter pill to swallow but like Saudi Arabia might be seen as worth it in the State Department.

Its easy to say crazy or stupid guy takes over Russia or China, but a more constructive challenge is what the Americans could've done different. Maybe we'll learn something about American foreign policy this way.
 
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raharris1973

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Very interesting observation, and very interesting question. I've asked it before:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...rsh-rhetoric-between-china-and-russia.394962/

It seems the PRC and Soviet Union were *divided* by a common ideology more often than not; Russia and the PRC have been able to get along better for longer since 1989 in part because China now only pretends to care about Marxist ideology, and Russia doesn't even pretend to care about it since Putin is doing his own thing.

But during Soviet times, ideological interpretation was a much more important, and it turned out, explosive, element in Moscow-Beijing relations.

The other big part is simple balance of power, as long as Washington has the power and gumption to challenge Beijing and Moscow at the same time, America is a bigger problem to them than they are to each other.

So, the easy solution to the challenge is an isolationist or greatly weakened America unable to support targets of Chinese and Russian ambition like Taiwan or Ukraine. Then China or Russia can "afford" to worry about each other.

That's why this item below is a problematic concept:
There is great potential for the relationship to go either way but what would be in your opinion be the best way to drive a wedge between Russia and China for America?

Trying to "drive" anything at Russia or China through pressure would be too ham-handed to work and push them closer together. If America did less "driving" their differences could more fully blossom.

Of course non-US related events could have spoiled recent decades' Sino-Russian cooperation. China's attitude is increasingly in the driver's seat. If China had a leadership with a Maoist level of ambition and recklessness (which is actually super-rare in Chinese history) it could decide it is fixated on restoring historic imperial Chinese territorial claims in the Russian Far East, Mongolia and Central Asia. People talk about Xi Jinping's vaulting ambition, but he is coming off a baseline and tradition China has established since Deng Xiaoping and 1979 of not getting into wars, not looking for trouble, and mainly looking at the outside world as a way to make money. A China with leader with a Maoist sense of grandiosity and pride could do it. Maybe even a China with a Putinesque leader who insists on being as interventionist as Putin does could make it happen.

Russia could theoretically also provide a PoD for less cooperation. For instance if someone more extreme than Putin, like Zhirinovsky, had taken over. I think I saw a map based on comments he made in the 1990s where it showed Russia expanding into Mongolia and Manchuria (and Iran and Pakistan and Poland and Romania).
 
The solution is "simple": not kicking the Russians while they're down in the 90s and not treat them like some discount soviet union that's hell bent on conquest.

Right now Mordor and discount Mordor are basically the 2 unpopular kids in the corner: they both might not like each other, but both are certainly butthurt at the rest of the guys. Not driving Russia into that corner would go a long way in mitigating the issue.
 
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Deng is succeeded by a nationalist who dumpsters all of China's treaties with the USSR on the basis that it no longer exists and begins pressing Qing-era territorial claims.
 
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