Challenge: Mexican-Cuban Conflict

MacCaulay

Banned
Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to produce a logical set of events that would result in shots fired and a state of war (official or unofficial, take your pick) that lasts at least a month between the governments of Mexico and Cuba sometime after 1970. It can take any time from 1970 up to 2008.

There you go. Game on!
 

wormyguy

Banned
This is kind of a hard scenario, for the simple reason that I can think of no earthly reason why Mexico would want to develop a blue-water navy, which is really the only way that Mexico and Cuba could even really get into shooting contact with each other.

Anyways, here's my rather half-baked idea:

The Zapatistas start a little earlier, say in the late 70s, and manage to gain some more popular support than in OTL. They secure funding and arms shipments from Cuba and the Soviets. Eventually, they are able to start a full-fledged guerilla war against the Mexican government, fueled by Cuban and Soviet aid, and the illicit drug trade. Amid the anarchy caused by the explosion in drug-related violence in the 80s, the Mexican government is forced to send troops into urban areas, surrendering much of the southern countryside to the rebels. With a near-civil war situation in Mexico, Cuba sends troops to fight alongside the rebels* in the glorious battle of the revolution . . .

*Not terribly unlikely - Cuba sent troops to fight in the Arab-Israeli wars and famously in the South African Border War, so there's no reason why they wouldn't send troops to fight a war on their very doorstep.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
I've got to admit that that's totally not anywhere near what I was ever expecting anyone to go near.

That's interesting stuff...
 
I think this is highly unlikely for the simple reason of neither side particularly wanting to piss of the superpower right up north. This war is going to be happening right in America's backyard, it's going to get involved, even if only in a mediator role.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
I think this is highly unlikely for the simple reason of neither side particularly wanting to piss of the superpower right up north. This war is going to be happening right in America's backyard, it's going to get involved, even if only in a mediator role.

I never said this would be some huge apocalyptic thing. That was far from my mind.

If anything, low intensity would be the order of the day, something closer to what wormy mentioned.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Even in Wormy's scenario, America is probably going to be selling arms to Mexico at a discount.

Well, I never said that America wouldn't be involved. I mean...anytime someone looks cockeyed at Cuba, America's there to pat them on the back.
 
That was an interesting scenario.

Is there any limit to how early the POD must be? An early enough POD can make this quite easy.

Make any of the two Mexican Empires survive. It would make more sense if it was Iturbide's. But Maximilian's works just as well. (Yes both scenarios involve a moderate Mexican-wank)

In the first scenario

Make the Mexican War of Independence last longer. Enough so Iturbide and his lackeys actually fight alongside the insurgents and not just switch sides at the last minute. Therefore the support for his crowning is much more wide spread, as he would be a war hero and not just an opportunist. The prolonged war might also make him think twice about the whole paying Spaniards for their land in gold deal. Thus Mexico is not born bankrupted. To further help things along Texas and the Sacramento Valley (North Cali) are sold to the US at some point.
Since Cuba was officially part of New Spain it would seem logical for the new government to claim it as their own. Even if this is pure fantasy it is still something to hope for.
Early in the 1900s Mexico alongside the U.S. (or CSA depending on what happened in the ACW) go to war against Spain to liberate Cuba. The win and Cuba gets split in half. West Cuba for Mexico, East Cuba for the Americans.
In the 1970s with anti-imperialist pressure and nationalist sentiments in Cuba. Fidel Castro and others lead an independence and reunification movement. The Americans are somewhat sympathetic and negotiates peace with Cuba. But a stubborn Mexican Emperor refuses to give in and the conflict prolongs itself for several more weeks.

Scenario number 2

CSA wins ACW. France props Maximilian as puppet Emperor of Mexico. With its success in Mexico France tries to extend its influenc in Central and South America. France buys Cuba from Spain in the 1890s but uses Mexico to hold it down. Mexico remains a close ally of France through the 20th century and Cuba a French colony. In the 1970s Cuban nationalism rises. France tries to hold it down. Mexico helps France by sending troops to Cuba.

This is over simplified but it could work.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Sorry, jycee...the POD has to be after 1970. I'm willing to let that sliip to 1960.

I dig the ideas though.
 
Mexico turn far left i 1985ish but Soviet Union fall as in OTL. The Castro brothers are killed by a Cuban exile when visiting Mexico and communism starts crubling. A democratic goverment is formed.

Mexico somehow become get targeted for some international intervention. For example, they support terrorism, they become so unstabe they need a international force or something. The Cuban goverment join it.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
First, you would have to butterfly this away: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estrada_Doctrine

You know...I should've made a challenge where the Estrada Doctrine was named for Erik Estrada.

Just saying.

Me personally, I was kind of hoping that someone could make some sort of tanker war stemming from the Mexican oil rigs. Though I'm not sure how it would happen.

I'll be honest: I've always had this story idea for something that takes place after a Mexican/Cuban conflict, but I just don't have a way for Mexico and Cuba to get into the fight.
 
I like this AHC because it is hard, and sort of random. After searching the internet for foriegn relations problems between the two nations, I only found a small recent political spat. Nothing war-worthy. I would say a scenario like wormguy's, where Cuba goes crazy NK style left and Mexico goes right and they have a spat over Nicaragua or other area, but the USA would definately get involved, and I don't know if that would be ok for your challenge. Even if you say the communists collapse, the US would want to try and get involved in such a proximate war.
 
The only thing I could come up with is that the rift between Cuba and Mexico increases after the rhetorical dispute between the two nations that started in 1998(when Fidel Castro said that it'd be easier for Mexican children to name Disney Characters then Mexican Historical figures). In OTL, Mexico recalled their ambassador and asked the Cuban Ambassador to leave. In response Cuba ousted some Mexican busniessmen. However, it all cooled down when Castro and the Mexican President, Vincente Fox, apologized to each other around 2002. However, lets say it gets worse, and Fox uses it to push the new Castañeda Doctrine, and takes a hard stance on Cuba, wanting to put Mexico as a bigger player on the world stage. By 2003, the rift hasn't closed between the two nations and Fox has increased the size of Mexico's military somewhat. In 2003, the USA gets tied up in Iraq, and the drug trade in Mexico becomes a worse and worse problem, destabalizing the country. As the Fox government comes up for re-election, the Mexican Inteligence Agency(or the American CIA tells the Mexican government) that some of the planes smuggling drugs are coming from Cuba. Relations collapse after a Cuban fighter accidentally collides with a Mexican planes over the Caribbean, and the Mexican government thinks it was an attack and declares war.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
The only thing I could come up with is that the rift between Cuba and Mexico increases after the rhetorical dispute between the two nations that started in 1998(when Fidel Castro said that it'd be easier for Mexican children to name Disney Characters then Mexican Historical figures). In OTL, Mexico recalled their ambassador and asked the Cuban Ambassador to leave. In response Cuba ousted some Mexican busniessmen. However, it all cooled down when Castro and the Mexican President, Vincente Fox, apologized to each other around 2002. However, lets say it gets worse, and Fox uses it to push the new Castañeda Doctrine, and takes a hard stance on Cuba, wanting to put Mexico as a bigger player on the world stage. By 2003, the rift hasn't closed between the two nations and Fox has increased the size of Mexico's military somewhat. In 2003, the USA gets tied up in Iraq, and the drug trade in Mexico becomes a worse and worse problem, destabalizing the country. As the Fox government comes up for re-election, the Mexican Inteligence Agency(or the American CIA tells the Mexican government) that some of the planes smuggling drugs are coming from Cuba. Relations collapse after a Cuban fighter accidentally collides with a Mexican planes over the Caribbean, and the Mexican government thinks it was an attack and declares war.

Hell, you wouldn't even need them to declare war. You just fulfilled it with the Cuban and Mexican aircraft getting frisky over the Carribbean.

Though I'd feel sorry for the Mexican Air Force if they had to take the Cubans on. We're talking F-5s against MiG-21s or -29s. (Unless the US wants to give the Mexicans F-16s along with the Hueys they were already selling them, or the F-4s they were decommissioning at the time)
 
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