Challenge: Make the Liberal Democrats displace one of the two main parties after 1988

Using a POD no earlier than 1988 (when the Liberal Democrats were officially established), make the party displace either the Conservatives or Labour as one of two main parties in the United Kingdom. They don't necessarily have to form a government in this period, they just have to finish with the second largest number of seats in two consecutive elections.
 
Charlie takes and keeps the pledge, IDS keeps tory leadership, Blair goes into 05 or 06 election planning to go on and on
 
I think your best bet is a really bad 1997, I think for Tories to fall bellow the Lib Dems by seats is possible but it's requires someone far more toxic than John Major, maybe if John Redwood or even worse but even more implausible like Neil Hamilton. The other opition is Bastard Rebels formally split from the Tories either by joining the referendum party or forming there own UKIP knock off. For Libs Dems to remain the 2nd Party of the UK so the Tories need to remain divided and maybe even some liberal ones joining post 97.
 
Okay - perhaps read the AH.com classics For Want of A Debate and For Want of A Vote by yours truly if you want a little inspiration.

One scenario:

Scenario 1:
After the disastrous 1995 local election results, Major doesn't seek a new mandate as Party leader so the internal squabbling and discontent continues. By early 1997 the Party and Government are on the verge of total collapse - the slim majority won by Major disappears and the Wirral West by-election suggests a massive swing to Labour but Major is out of luck and out of time.

The 1997 General Election is catastrophic for the Conservatives who end on just 26% and 103 seats. The Liberal Democrats win 63 seats on 22% of the vote but Blair wins a huge landslide with 47% of the vote and 463 seats. Among the Conservative losses are Portillo and Clarke while even Edward Heath loses his seat in the rout. Hague emerges from the wreckage as the new leader but he is wholly ineffective as the Conservatives spend the next four years arguing about Europe.

There is no foot-and-mouth outbreak and in May 2001, Blair wins a second landslide with the majority barely reduced. The Liberal Democrats plan and implement a decapitation strategy which claims (among others) David Davis and Oliver Letwin and pushes the Party into a narrow second place in terms of votes and seats. Charles Kennedy becomes Opposition leader and with the events of Iraq assumes a more prominent public profile while the slavish support of Bush by Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith pushes the Party further back. The 2005 election is seen as a referendum on Iraq and the Liberal Democrats win 70 seats from Labour while the Conservatives sink to just 35 seats. In 2010 the Conservatives enter coalition with the Liberal Democrats but are decimated in 2015 with just 8 Conservative MPs surviving as Nick Clegg wins the first Liberal majority since Asquith.
 
The problem with the Liberal Democrats displacing the Tories is that by 1997, they are clearly an anti-Tory Party better suited to working with Labour. The Tories can only be displaced by another right-wing anti-Labour Party. Labour on the other hand...

I think a scenario where the Tories win a majority in 2010 (Liberals do better, Labour does worse), followed by some sort of Labour Civil War might allow the Liberals to eventually leapfrog Labour in Opposition.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
problem with the Liberal Democrats displacing the Tories is that by 1997, they are clearly an anti-Tory Party better suited to working with Labour
The same cannot be said with Orange Bookers.

I think a scenario where the Tories win a majority in 2010 (Liberals do better, Labour does worse), followed by some sort of Labour Civil War might allow the Liberals to eventually leapfrog Labour in Opposition
Or Neil Kinnock failing to reform the Labour Party and losing it to the militants.
 
One thing you can do with any post 1988 POD for British politics would be to have Thatcher remain the Conservative leader, only to be defeated in 1992, or even better, in 1997. Then have the Tories go completely nuts after her departure. One potential bonus or complication is that a Labour win in 1992 could well butterfly the entire Blair government away.
 
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