Challenge: Make Portugal the 3rd superpower in the Cold War

[Lusitania]

After 1900? Impossible short of divine intervention or so radically a different world in the 1900s that its unrecognisable. You'd have to have the Portugese Empire survive from the 1600's onwards, so holding onto Brasil and other South American countries as well as elsewhere.

Without that, not going to happen.

Again as super power in the sense that as powerful as America/Soviet economically and Militarily I can state no. But as I am trying to portray in Lusophone as leader of 3rd block yes. Portuguese and Lusitania Commonwealth with countries in 4 continents could become both economically and militarily equal to the 2 super powers. The threat of the two super powers and attempts to create a 3rd alternative have existed, we simply have to look at the reasoning for the transformation of the EEC to the EU as clear desire of many countries to join together to compete with the super powers.

 

[ToasterOven456]

Again as super power in the sense that as powerful as America/Soviet economically and Militarily I can state no. But as I am trying to portray in Lusophone as leader of 3rd block yes. Portuguese and Lusitania Commonwealth with countries in 4 continents could become both economically and militarily equal to the 2 super powers. The threat of the two super powers and attempts to create a 3rd alternative have existed, we simply have to look at the reasoning for the transformation of the EEC to the EU as clear desire of many countries to join together to compete with the super powers.

Your example is a great one. Portugal is just trying to be another faction, independent of the two superpowers

 

[Lusitania]

why did you kill off mao? And also why make the west conquer more of Europe?

As for different outcome of the WW2, you need to review what Germany was able to do. They captured both Leningrad and Moscow. But in 1942 due to Portuguese having to severely restrict their exports to Germany and both the logistic problems and Russian counter attack they started to be pushed back in East. While the Germans were able to slow the Soviet advance they nevertheless continued to be pushed back. Soviets resented the west even more than iOTL and there was no agreement on how to divide or occupy Nazi Germany. When the West launched their attack in west they made greater progress. Portugal was involved in war fighting in southern France and Bavaria. The West reached German-Polish current border before Soviets did and also occupied Czech part of Czechoslovakia.

Soviets at first contemplated attacking the west but the American dropping 4 nuclear bombs on Japan made them hesitant.

 

[ToasterOven456]

As for different outcome of the WW2, you need to review what Germany was able to do. They captured both Leningrad and Moscow. But in 1942 due to Portuguese having to severely restrict their exports to Germany and both the logistic problems and Russian counter attack they started to be pushed back in East. While the Germans were able to slow the Soviet advance they nevertheless continued to be pushed back. Soviets resented the west even more than iOTL and there was no agreement on how to divide or occupy Nazi Germany. When the West launched their attack in west they made greater progress. Portugal was involved in war fighting in southern France and Bavaria. The West reached German-Polish current border before Soviets did and also occupied Czech part of Czechoslovakia.

Soviets at first contemplated attacking the west but the American dropping 4 nuclear bombs on Japan made them hesitant.

Will czechoslovakia be TTL's version of Germany? And after the cold war they can reunite

 

[Lusitania]

Will czechoslovakia be TTL's version of Germany? And after the cold war they can reunite

No Czech and Slovakia would not reunite. Just like iOTL the two cultures will be very far apart even so more here. Germany was never occupied by Soviet Union and the western powers united Germany into single country in the late 1940s.

 

[irispaiva]

From my POV, the only way for Portugal to be something close of a superpower is Portugal somehow being the head of a functional Patria Grande, or an unified Latin America. Which I don't see it happening

 

[Janrey]

There is a remote chance that Brazil could be, Portugal? Do not.

 

[Thunderfire]

Something comparable to @Lusitania's timeline A Lusophone World. Rules are that you cannot just have Portugal keep their existing colonies. They have to expand somewhat, either occupying Nagasaki after ww2, doing what A Lusophone World's Portugal did, or just have Brazil make a union with them. Another rule is that the empire must persist in some way until the Ukraine crisis in 2022

ASB. ATL 2022 must be very different from our own.
e.g.
- much bigger Soviet Victory in WW2.
- WW3 in 1950
- Portugal ist the leader of the catholic / fascist block in 2022

This means no OTL Ukraine crisis in 2022.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Again as super power in the sense that as powerful as America/Soviet economically and Militarily I can state no. But as I am trying to portray in Lusophone as leader of 3rd block yes. Portuguese and Lusitania Commonwealth with countries in 4 continents could become both economically and militarily equal to the 2 super powers. The threat of the two super powers and attempts to create a 3rd alternative have existed, we simply have to look at the reasoning for the transformation of the EEC to the EU as clear desire of many countries to join together to compete with the super powers.

Why would any hypothetical 3rd block want to follow a country that by all means is a power of colonialists in an era where anticolonialism is the dominant ideology in the Third World? Aside from South Africa, Rhodesia, and a white minority Kenya I guess, and maybe assorted odds and ends like a Latin American right-wing military dictatorship that wants to step outside the US sphere and follow its own policy.

19th and 20th century Portugal is just too poor to get that level of development both at home (since 1900 Portugal was closer to a Latin American country than a European one in terms of literacy, education, industry, etc.) and abroad (developing Africa costs money which Portugal doesn't have). The only advantage Portugal has is their global reach in Africa and Asia but they barely have the money to control their colonies. And if Portugal did fuse with their colonies be it Brazil or Angola/Mozambique, then they pretty much become the junior partner in that union given the demographics. It's easy to see an Angola-led "Portugal" not caring so much about Portuguese concerns as they use Portugal's resources to continue their own development.

 

[Lusitania]

Why would any hypothetical 3rd block want to follow a country that by all means is a power of colonialists in an era where anticolonialism is the dominant ideology in the Third World? Aside from South Africa, Rhodesia, and a white minority Kenya I guess, and maybe assorted odds and ends like a Latin American right-wing military dictatorship that wants to step outside the US sphere and follow its own policy.

19th and 20th century Portugal is just too poor to get that level of development both at home (since 1900 Portugal was closer to a Latin American country than a European one in terms of literacy, education, industry, etc.) and abroad (developing Africa costs money which Portugal doesn't have). The only advantage Portugal has is their global reach in Africa and Asia but they barely have the money to control their colonies. And if Portugal did fuse with their colonies be it Brazil or Angola/Mozambique, then they pretty much become the junior partner in that union given the demographics. It's easy to see an Angola-led "Portugal" not caring so much about Portuguese concerns as they use Portugal's resources to continue their own development.

First off, you have not read my TL so everything you are rambling on is completely false. So read the TL then comeback.

 

[ToasterOven456]

First off, you have not read my TL so everything you are rambling on is completely false. So read the TL then comeback.

Portugal reforms into a federation to survive decolonization, and it works! And France does it too to a certain extent right? I know about Dijbouti and Algeria. They also want to join the Lusitanian Commonwealth as an associate member, the other being Israel. Let's face it Israel does a bit of colonizing,

 

[Lusitania]

Portugal reforms into a federation to survive decolonization, and it works! And France does it too to a certain extent right? I know about Dijbouti and Algeria. They also want to join the Lusitanian Commonwealth as an associate member, the other being Israel. Let's face it Israel does a bit of colonizing,

Portugal and France are two different beasts. The Portuguese during the 1930s-1940 had transformed both Portugal and its overseas provinces so that they represented a huge % of the overall economy. Plus they felt threatened by US stance towards them. Lastly due to limited democratic rights in Portugal the government thought they could control the situation and political outcome. (Not).

France on the other hand was at a political loss after the war unable to decide on path forward. The arrival of DeGaul provided French with direction but France faced issues the Portuguese in this TL were not faced with or result of actions by others (Portuguese).
1) France was not any desire to make all Africans in French Africa French citizens (the Portuguese did).
2) France was spending great amount of effort trying to maintain French IndoChina. An effort that in time be proven foley and be demoralizing.
3) France’s answer to Portuguese commonwealth was the French community which gave Africans their own government’s but largely under French control/influence. This of course was almost completely destroyed by following 2 events.
4) the Portuguese - Moroccan war resulted in making Moroccans turning on French and subsequently those people along with others supporting France having to flee a hostile Morocco and seeking refuge in The Moroccan enclave of Tangier. Within year they ousted the Moroccan government from Tangier and drove away. Those who supported Morocco. These French settlers/Moroccan / French supporters then demanded to be part of France. DeGaul refused seeing not in French best interests but faced with political revolt on his hands he reluctantly accepted.
5) when DeGaul announced his French community every country except Guinea accepted. Iotl Guinea became a supporter of Soviet union and a foe of Portugal in Portuguese Guinea. ITTL the Portuguese are able to topple Guinea government by assassinating the leader. But France under DeGaul miscalculates the situation and bungles it’s intervention resulting in Guinea splintering into 3 separate countries (1 communist, 1 pro French, and 1 supported by Federation).
6) the events is 4 and 5 resulted in the government’s of French community to denounce France and they left.
7) During the 1950s France of course was fighting Algerian nationalist who wanted an independent Algeria. The independence movement was in large part supported by Arabs especially Egypt. Hence reason French involvement in Suez war and supporting Israel. The Suez war and subsequent Arab embargo against France made many in France realize precarious French position.

when rumors began circulating that DeGaul was considering abandoning Algeria he was assassinated. The new French government decided instead to partition Algeria and keep the eastern half with the oil/gas resources snd enclave of oran. Thus changing France and radically changing France from iotl by early 1960s.
8) the Portuguese - African war of 1967 completely changed Africa. At same time France was also forced to defend itself from Arab hostile countries.

The French ousted the hostile government’s in Algeria (western Algeria only since eastern part still part of France) and Tunisia. It occupied Somaliand (northern part of Somalia, while rest of Somalia occupied and annexed by Ethiopia and Kenya.)

the threat of Federation to many French speaking Africans and subsequent disdain for Pan African and Soviets led them to realign with a France and French community was re-established by end of the 1960s snd France firmly in control.
9) note: due to situation in Indian subcontinent Pondicherry still part of France.
10) France continues to be part of EEC but has strong economic and political ties Africa and Federation/commonwealth. It is part of NATO but at same time not trust US to represent French interests.
11) economic development between federation-commonwealth-French community-France in Africa makes France decide at end of the 1970s to seek associate membership in commonwealth. Making rest if EEC worried and confused.

 

[Helicon One]

About the only way I can see this happening is Portugal being relatively untouched by a nuclear exchange which erases most of the rest of the map and they become number three power by default.