Challenge: Make "Operation Sealion" a German succsess

Hitler somehow takes out the Soviet Union in 1941 (a very tall order) and spends 1942 building up. But this works only if somehow the US is not the war.

Frankly I have to agree that there is no way a 1940 Sealion works.

The other possibility is Hitler decides not to attack the Soviet Union in 1941 and instead spends the year bombing England at night, while going with the Canaris strategy in the Med 1940-41. AND actually makes proper invasion plans. The superiority of the FW190 over the 1942 Spitfire Mks gives the Germans a better chance at air superiority, and the potentially the Germans can build more parachute units, transports and dedicated assault sea lift.

By that time the Germans could have developed proper anti-shipping doctrine for the Luftwaffe (after the historical Crete campaign that they actually did).

The summer of the 1942 sees the Allies very seriously stretched by Japan in the Pacific, the Battle of the Atlantic is at its height (and not going well for the Allies), and and US ground forces are pretty sparse (only a couple of divisions are in the UK at this point, most of the rest are training, hurriedly being deployed to defend Australia, or tied down elsewhere).

Still probably won't work, but the most likely possibility of any German success.

Unless Stalin invades from the East....

Hmm, this actually might work, counting that Stalin and Hitler be buddies (Stalin would not dare invade Germany if it was pushing back "evil Capitalist nations", and even maybe after that because when the invasion ends there will be no two-front war against bigger enemies, counting that Hitler kept quiet about Japan's DOW.

It seems that Sealion has no chance of succseeding before late 1941 or early 1942, even counting that the UK grows weaker. I think the only possibility of a succsess is to mobilise the entire Kriegsmarine and Luftwaffe, and have troops sent by both sea barges and via paratroopers, but bombers have to destroy the AA positions before anything could be done, since a lot of airborne transports would arrive to Britain. This is stretching luck and having the UK loose the Battle of Britain to Germany.
 
Technically the Operation Seelöwe could have been a succes, if all German millitary branches for once had cooperated together. Since hte bitter rivalry between these services prevented this, Seelöwe made no chance.

Hypothetical:

After the Invassion of both Norway, Danemark, the Low Countries and France, the Germans continued to drive west and prepare to cross the Chanal. To do this, they only needed superiority in the Air over both Chanalports and beaches in South England, meaning the first target would have to be the RAF at its bases, just as in the OTL. Further more, the following operation Barbarossa had to wait, untill the UK had surrendered and knocked out of the war.

To do so, Hitler himself had to be denied any influence in the millitary campaign, as his stupidity in the OTL more than once frustrated German warefforts. By giving all millitary operations to the millitary and not the Politicians, (like Göring), Seelöwe might have a chance. The preparations would be directed and organized by the Military and not by Political leaders as well.

Technically the preparations were already underway, as in the OTL, so nothing different here. Only the continuing bombing of British airbases and aircraft production industry, as well as the ports and beaches, prepared for the landings and not other targets, such as civilians. Germany needed to give priority to British Radar detection and Airdefense first, if it wanted to win the war., so the first job would be to destroy the radarmasts and as many fighters as possibly, either on the ground or in the air. Also the attacks on known command centers was to be done in earnest, before shifting to more tactical targets, such as infrastructure and so on.

If this was succesfull, the Army needed only to be set on the shorer, with as little as a few full divissions, given the lack of the British Army to field more than a few divissions itself, with almost no equipment yet, as most had already been lost in France. So British landdefenses were likely to be weak, given this crises. The only strong deterent would likely come from the Royal Navy, which was not equipped to operate in hostile enviroments, controlled by strong tactical airforces of the opposing side. To stop the Royal Navy from intervening in the landings, the Luftwaffe would play a major role during the landings, as its bombers could and would attack all British navalforces sighted, before these would enter the Chanal. U-Boote and light attack craft (S-Boote) would provide the naval blockade of the Chanal, while the rest of the small Kriegsmarine (not more than two damaged battleships (Scharnhorst and Gneisenau), two heavy cruisers (Hipper and Scheer) at best and two light cruisers (Emden and Köln), with no more than only six destroyers, since the Norwegean Campaign had resulted in severe losses and damage). The Kriegsmarine was to form a Fleet in Being, as the British did not know completely the details of the Fleet readiness and also had to be weary of a possible breakout into the Atlantic by one or more units. So the Homefleet would be tied up in Scottish waters just because of this.
 
Losing battleships doesn't affect the U-boat war, which is a war for destroyers and even smaller ships as well as escort carriers. As to the surface war, the Germans would lose most of their surface fleet such as it was, during an unsuccessful Sea Lion. The Brits might not be in as good position for sinking the Bismarck, but there would be limits to what the Bismarck could do: planes could spot it, and convoys could be routed around it.

The big losses to Britain in surface vessels would be made up by the U.S.; indeed, defeating the invasion would cause a great American upswing in support for the Brits--even without it the Brits got the 50 destroyers and an American commitment to take over defense of British territories in Western hemisphere, Greenland and eventually Iceland. Furthermore, Sea Lion doesn't affect the Canadian efforts to build small if only partly effective convoy vessels.

Most important, the sea losses would FORCE the Brits to move more rapidly in developing new radar, in allocating relatively long range planes from bomber command to coastal command, and in developing small rudimentary escort carriers (which didn't exist at time of BoB). They could also seize and put into action with British crews those French ships neutralized or quarantined at various sites from Martinique to Alexandria. And if it really became life and death (which it didn't before 42-early 43 in OTL), the Brits could seize the Azores and give an ultimatum to Eire about those naval bases. None of this in 1941 would close the North Atlantic gap, but the Germans didnt have enough u-boats until 1942, as I recall, to make the gap a make it or break it place.

The main result of great Brit naval losses during Sea Lion would be more allocation to naval construction and coastal command and less allocation to the primitive British bombers circa 41-42 that couldn't really accomplish much that was useful anyway. The danger would be a cutback in fighter rather than bomber production, but after the BoB I don't think this is a mistake that would get out of hand.

Finally, the needs of Coastal Command might lead to an earlier figuring out of the need to attack extra fuel tanks to fighters.

Battleships and fleet carriers would have little effect on the Altantic war apart from with the Bismark and later the Tirptiz which never reached the Atlantic but they would require escorts wherever they operated escort would be required in the Mediterranean all of which would divert scarce resources from the convoys. We may have recieved 50 obsolete destroyers admiteddly still useful as escort destroyers and faster than sloops or frigates but this would have been on top of loses from defeating Operation Sea Lion. Radar gave Britain a brief respite in early 1941 and Admiral Kings stupidity another one in early 1942 but the U-boat began to regain an upper hand in early 1943 until the air gap was closed. With the losses sustained from Sea Lion we may never have gained the respite
 
The Nazis can't win. A society built on their ideals would eventually tear itself to pieces. It would be a society where you can't trust nobody.
 
The Nazis can't win. A society built on their ideals would eventually tear itself to pieces. It would be a society where you can't trust nobody.

Which sounds far more a reassuring mantra than an historical statement.
"The Nazis were Evil and thus were Doomed to Failure".

My Sea-Going Leonine Friend here says:
Don't mess with me saying I was not possible, dude

nosy_sealion.jpg
 
Which sounds far more a reassuring mantra than an historical statement.
"The Nazis were Evil and thus were Doomed to Failure".

My Sea-Going Leonine Friend here says:
Don't mess with me saying I was not possible, dude

Funny, I don't remember even mentioning Sealions a few moments ago. Nope, I sure didn't. You honestly think somebody can take on the entire world and win, especially when their "allies" would turn on them the second they thought they could get away with it (or had the Soviets pointed a rifle at their head)?

If you haven't, then you should read The Third Reich in Power by Richard Evans (and maybe his other Reich books) to get a little insight to the Nazi's domestic policies.
 
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