Challenge: make Korea one of the Great Powers from 1860 to 1960

I didn't understand you, seems you are always misinterpreting others and ignore the point.
China would collapse because of internal pressure and European can do nothing they would just try to defend their interest. Moreover before Second Opium War Europeans had little influence in internal development of Qing Dynasty.
1860's Qing had good chance of being collapsed.

Well, I have a hard time understanding you as well if you're not being particularly specific about why the events occurred, not to mention the component details themselves. For example, the Taiping Rebellion occurred from 1850-64, which ended two years before the Second Opium War broke out, and was put down in part due to the help of the Ever Victorious Army, which operated from 1860-64. There were other serious rebellions afterwards as well, but they were generally limited in scope and did not threaten the Qing as a whole, which still had the ability to mobilize a significant number of troops. As a result, assuming that events in China do not radically change before the Second Opium War, the Europeans will almost certainly attempt to intervene in the Qing's affairs by propping up the declining government, which you haven't exactly denied.

Siam analogue was because of Korea will remain neutral as it will be conflict of interest between Russia and Britain/France. Otherwise Korea has good chance to become colony.

Again, your analogy wasn't specific, and my point was that competing territorial interests among more states could divide the peninsula entirely, which you seem to agree with.

Here we are talking about Korea ascend to Great Power Status rapidly.
If Korea ascend to Great Power status, Korea will annex Liaodong, as Japan did to Korea in 1905.
In 1860's there was around 2.5 million Chinese in Liaoning and 0,3 million in Jilin. So Korea need to absorb those Chinese as did Japanese to Taiwanese. I don't know how Korea was xenophobic, but if they are better than Japanese then it won't be much problem to absorb those Chinese and Koreanize them.
For Korea to ascend to Great Power status China need to be in choas for longer period. My Idea is China had Warlord Era analogue from 1860 to 1930.
Japan can be problem but if Korea can become British ally then Japan can do nothing. And if Korea fight during WWII on Allied side, while Japan and China fight on Axis side then after Great War Korea will ascend to Great Power of Asia.

Yes, but as I stated repeatedly within this thread, Japan had several key advantages over Korea before the 19th century which allowed the former to modernize rapidly. I admitted earlier that Korea had a significant amount of resources, mostly in the northern regions, but they wouldn't have been enough when society would have to be altered significantly before even attempting to consider major encompassing political and technological reforms. As a result, I honestly don't think that Korea would even attempt to expand into Liaodong until around 1890-1910 or so, at which point the population would have at least doubled, mostly due to migration. In other words, with a significant Han Chinese presence in the region, it would be extremely difficult for Korea to "assimilate" the locals, as even Japan failed to do so IOTL after persuading more than a million migrants from Japan and Korea to head to Manchuria. On the other hand, Jilin could be theoretically taken, but as it covered a large amount of territory relative to Korea, and wasn't particularly strategic, the government would probably abstain from sending migrants much further north, as the peninsula had a relatively low population base.
 
The Confederacy is alive and well, I see.
A stronger South vs North divide convinces Congress to keep military assets at home rather than across the Ocean visiting Japan, perhaps?

I haven't thought of it that way, but that certainly seems a possible option. Furthermore, since Korea starts modernization much earlier than OTL Japan (Korea starts in 1855; Japan starts in 1868), perhaps it could get a headstart on modernization.

Siam analogue was because of Korea will remain neutral as it will be conflict of interest between Russia and Britain/France. Otherwise Korea has good chance to become colony.

Yes, I understand how that means Korea will survive between the major powers. However, that doesn't link to a Korean development into a Great Power- do we see Thailand in the Security Council?
 
@democracy...

We are talking here to make Korea as Great Power.
What you saying is always cheap example. Sorry, I'm too tired to convince you since you are always not accept others but yours.
Even your Super Gogoryeo TL is too implausible.

@zeppelin.
Siam analogue is brought to point how Korea could stay independent and not become fell under influence of Great Powers. Also Korea seems more adept than Thailand. So OTL Thailand is not good example for Korea.
 
@democracy...

We are talking here to make Korea as Great Power.
What you saying is always cheap example. Sorry, I'm too tired to convince you since you are always not accept others but yours.
Even your Super Gogoryeo TL is too implausible.

Again, it's one thing to produce a rough outline which barely touches on the causes concerning various interlocking details, and another to thoroughly examine why events occurred the way they did IOTL, then attempt to come up with alternate plausible scenarios. I've stated repeatedly that there are multiple convoluted factors to consider, and while Japan ended up perusing more rapid developments for specific reasons, it's not entirely impossible for Korea to fare much better than it did in optimal conditions.

I also have no idea why you're referencing my TL if you made numerous comments suggesting that you didn't thoroughly examine the posts in question, not to mention vague geopolitical comparisons which make very little sense considering the different situations involved. There are simply not enough sources available for even the Korean states during the time period, as they mostly consist of primary Chinese sources or secondary Korean sources, so I often have to make numerous assumptions based on current historians' analyses, not to mention that it takes an extremely long time to construct a detailed TL in any situation. You might create a different scenario based on your analysis, but that doesn't necessarily mean that either of our TLs are less reasonable if both of us do extensive research, which is an extremely daunting task to begin with.
 
Hi. Sorry for not posting anything for several days. I was being kept busy of academic matters.
Anyways, I have figured out a way to answer the question: Would there not be a big difference between Japan and Korea in the speed of modernization because Japan, despite its isolation policies, has much infrastructure, and Korea has only started developing its infrastructure from the 1800s?
The answer is: no.(YESS:cool:) Although Japan had much academic and technological development from the Western world for several centuries, the level of this development itself was quite low before the 19th century, because of the lack of key technological developments. Therefore, the infrastructural development in Japan during the early 1800s was still an easy level for Korea to catch up. (Because, as I said, there weren't much developed in the first place.) If you question the fact of how Japan received many books from the Dutch about navigation, anatomy, economics and politics, a good answer would be that Beijing was full of those books- and Korea went to Beijing very often. A possibility is that a longer-living Jong-jo spearheads a project to translate these Europe-based Chinese texts into Korean, and then spread "far and wide". (In OTL, these books were simply seen as "interesting but unimportant".)
Another thing, about the mention of Jong-jo being psychologically stressed out too much by 1800, I believe an answer could be this: many leaders have been stressed out by factions. Some intentionally did so(i.e. Lincoln intentionally brought his enemies into the cabinet). To fully understand, read this first: "정조가 내의원에서 올린 약을 마시고 정신이 몽롱한 상태에서 다음에 다시 그약을 받자 "내가 의원들을 믿을 수 없지만 하여 어찌하겠는가."하고 약을 마셨는데, 혼수상태에 빠지고 말았습니다. 그때, 대비인 정순왕후가 이 것은 선대왕(영조)께서 아프셨을때의 증세와 같다. 내가 직접 약을 올리겠다. 하여 모두를 물러가게 하고 노론대신 두어명만 남긴 채 방안에 들어가 있었는데, 갑자기 안에서 정순왕후의 곡소리가 들렸다고 합니다."(When Jong-jo received the second medicine from the state hospital while being in twilight state from the first medicine, he stated 'I don't believe you- but what can I do.' However, upon consuming the medicine, he fell into a coma. At that moment,Queen Jeongsun, grandmother of the King, stated "this is the same symptoms Yong-jo had when he was ill. I will make the medicine myself.", and forced everyone to leave the room except two officials of the conservative faction (Noh-ron). Suddenly, there was a wail from Queen Jeongsun.) From what is written, it can possibly be thought that Jong-jo was assassinated by the conservative queen(her husband, Yong-jo, killed his own son by starving him). If Jong-jo was saved from the 'assassination', for example, he would possibly live to progress Korea into modernization. (I am getting the stress hypothesis out of the way for two reasons- there are too less information and proof on the death of Jong-jo, and great leaders do not die like this.:D) All those leaders who led their countries out of misfortune- Bismark, Lincoln, Churchill, Hirobumi- did not simply die of stress. They kept on, for their willingness to get their countries out of hardhip.

These answer some questions?:D:p
 
@zeppelin.
Siam analogue is brought to point how Korea could stay independent and not become fell under influence of Great Powers. Also Korea seems more adept than Thailand. So OTL Thailand is not good example for Korea.

Hi. Of course, we all want our wanked-up countries to be in the SC of today.:D However, May I also say how the alliances would not be same in the WWI I have planned? ;) I still haven't decided yet, but I may even make Japan balkanized and carved up between spheres of influences of Korea, Russia USA, Britain, France, and the Netherlands. Korea would be fully aware of the dangers of a fully unified Japan...and would do its best to stop it, I think.
 
Hi. Sorry for not posting anything for several days. I was being kept busy of academic matters.

That's fine. My posts will probably become extremely sporadic starting next week or so, though, so you'll have less feedback from me.

Anyways, I have figured out a way to answer the question: Would there not be a big difference between Japan and Korea in the speed of modernization because Japan, despite its isolation policies, has much infrastructure, and Korea has only started developing its infrastructure from the 1800s?
The answer is: no.(YESS:cool:)

I think that you're jumping the gun here. Japan's advantages by the 19th century allowed it to embark on secondary issues more quickly than Korea did, as economic developments, for example, allowed the government to tackle more widespread reforms afterward that affected the population as a whole. Korea's speed concerning modernization might outpace that of Japan for the first two decades or so because it started from a much lower level, but will eventually taper off, comparatively speaking, once it reaches a certain limit, as the rest of the population struggles to keep up with the changes. Industrial output is the key here, and considering that Japan's population was already twice that of Korea by 1960-70 or so, the former had a significantly larger labor force to utilize on large-scale projects. For comparison, Japan initially had a brief advantage in terms of military capability over the US during WWII until a year or so after the incident at Pearl Harbor, although the latter's industrial capabilities eventually dwarfed that of its counterpart towards the end of the war. For more recent examples, most developing countries for the last half-century or so have been struggling to keep up with their developed counterparts, as initial significant growths in GDP did not necessarily translate to widespread growth and further reforms after several decades.

Although Japan had much academic and technological development from the Western world for several centuries, the level of this development itself was quite low before the 19th century, because of the lack of key technological developments. Therefore, the infrastructural development in Japan during the early 1800s was still an easy level for Korea to catch up. (Because, as I said, there weren't much developed in the first place.) If you question the fact of how Japan received many books from the Dutch about navigation, anatomy, economics and politics, a good answer would be that Beijing was full of those books- and Korea went to Beijing very often. A possibility is that a longer-living Jong-jo spearheads a project to translate these Europe-based Chinese texts into Korean, and then spread "far and wide". (In OTL, these books were simply seen as "interesting but unimportant".)

This covers discussion within our PMs, so I would appreciate it if you could try to limit the relevant discussions to this thread from now on so that everyone else can also view our train of thought. In any case, the biggest issue with this assumption is creating the reason for exactly why and how the court ITTL will decide that the sources must be translated, as the Industrial Revolution was not in full swing within Europe IOTL until the mid-19th century or so. In addition, I mentioned the Dutch to illustrate how Japan already had significant contacts with the Netherlands to order a steamship in 1855, only one year after Perry arrived in Japan for the second time, so it was much easier for Japan to request and receive specific products. On the other hand, it will take several decades for Korean intellectuals to understand the full import of the foreign texts, and another decade or so to significantly contact at least one European power, at which point there would have been further developments taking more time for the court to absorb. The Dutch also could view a brief glimpse of Japanese society for more than two centuries through Dejima, so the traders were somewhat aware of Japan's internal developments as a whole. In addition, there had been several low-level contacts with the other European countries and the US through shipwrecks and minor interventions as well for several decades before 1853, which eventually provided a significant reason for Perry's eventual voyage after learning more about Japanese society as a whole.

Another thing, about the mention of Jong-jo being psychologically stressed out too much by 1800, I believe an answer could be this: many leaders have been stressed out by factions. Some intentionally did so(i.e. Lincoln intentionally brought his enemies into the cabinet). To fully understand, read this first: "정조가 내의원에서 올린 약을 마시고 정신이 몽롱한 상태에서 다음에 다시 그약을 받자 "내가 의원들을 믿을 수 없지만 하여 어찌하겠는가."하고 약을 마셨는데, 혼수상태에 빠지고 말았습니다. 그때, 대비인 정순왕후가 이 것은 선대왕(영조)께서 아프셨을때의 증세와 같다. 내가 직접 약을 올리겠다. 하여 모두를 물러가게 하고 노론대신 두어명만 남긴 채 방안에 들어가 있었는데, 갑자기 안에서 정순왕후의 곡소리가 들렸다고 합니다."(When Jong-jo received the second medicine from the state hospital while being in twilight state from the first medicine, he stated 'I don't believe you- but what can I do.' However, upon consuming the medicine, he fell into a coma. At that moment,Queen Jeongsun, grandmother of the King, stated "this is the same symptoms Yong-jo had when he was ill. I will make the medicine myself.", and forced everyone to leave the room except two officials of the conservative faction (Noh-ron). Suddenly, there was a wail from Queen Jeongsun.) From what is written, it can possibly be thought that Jong-jo was assassinated by the conservative queen(her husband, Yong-jo, killed his own son by starving him). If Jong-jo was saved from the 'assassination', for example, he would possibly live to progress Korea into modernization. (I am getting the stress hypothesis out of the way for two reasons- there are too less information and proof on the death of Jong-jo, and great leaders do not die like this.:D) All those leaders who led their countries out of misfortune- Bismark, Lincoln, Churchill, Hirobumi- did not simply die of stress. They kept on, for their willingness to get their countries out of hardhip.

Again, this covers information within our PMs. I already mentioned the hypothesis of Jeongjo's possible poisoning earlier within this thread, so I understand the circumstances, but the scenarios are all ultimately speculation, so we can only piece together vague images with what we have. That being said, though, Jeongjo faced extreme opposition from the court towards the end of his reign, which would have significantly curtailed attempts for further reform. Although more might have been attempted afterwards, they would probably have affected the court more than the population as a whole, as the aristocracy would have attempted to retain their firm grip on the populace. Some reforms here and there could also pop up, though, which could lead to more thorough changes by 1850-70 or so after the court becomes gradually more neutralized through time.

The great leaders that you mentioned became renowned precisely because they were able to utilize significant inherent advantages to their fullest extent, all during periods of military conflict (Franco-Prussian War, Austro-Prussian War; American Civil War; World War II; Sino-Japanese War). Prussia had already become a significant European military power before Bismark came to power, while the Union far outpaced the Confederacy's industrial capabilities, Britain's RAF forced the Nazis to abandon its plans to take over the island, and Hirobumi was able to use his intricate knowledge of politics and Western ideas in order to rise to higher political positions. In any case, none of the leaders lasted very long, as Bismark was in power from 1871-90, Lincoln from 1861-5, Churchill from 1940-5 and later from 1951-5, and Hirobumi from 1885-1901, although he was not in power for several significant stretches. All were also ousted and power effectively handed down to their opponents, so their political influence in the short term was short-lived.

These answer some questions?:D:p

Again, I would argue that it would be extremely difficult for Korea to significantly outpace Japan's technological and economic capabilities by the late 19th century or so, given the situation involved. However, it's certainly possible for the peninsula to escape annexation, leading to more butterflies in the 20th century, if the optimal conditions are met.
 
zeppelinair said:
yes, a quick question....
if 정조 had lived much longer, i.e. into the 1820s,
how positive would that be toward Chosun?
As you know, he was a strong leader, accepting intellectuals from all regions and developing infrastructure within the nation. Perhaps there would be some population growth and economic development?

I would say that the immediate effects would be minimal, but they would gradually build up over time in an optimal scenario. The issue, as you probably know, is that the court continued to constrain his policies, so he was on a tightrope and was forced to implement policies which abstained from threatening the court's influence as a whole. This meant that although he managed to establish the royal library and invite various intellectuals to the palace for discussion, some of his more radical ideas were eventually blocked by the court. In other words, while he can certainly create a growing atmosphere more conducive to learning, the major reforms affecting individuals outside of the palace will probably be put into effect several decades after his reign. I also read that his death was mainly due to stress and other mental factors as he attempted to come up with new ideas, so while he might be able to live until 1905, it would probably be pushing it for him to remain in place after 1910 or so, making reforms much more difficult.

In other words, while Korea can certainly escape an analogue of the Japanese annexation in this alternate scenario, I would say that it would be extremely difficult on multiple levels for Korea to become a "major" power before the mid-20th century or so if the PoD does not occur before the late 18th century, due to the necessary developments. You would also probably need to provide a much more specific overview of events during the entire 19th century in order for me to analyze which parts need more work, as I would have to conduct some preliminary research on my own as well. -democracy101
 
zeppelinair said:
I believe a good interpretation of my feeling for this is this quote: "ain't nobody got time for dat!" ;)

My response would be "티끌 모아 태산." It takes an extremely long time for significant changes to occur, and this is no exception.

zeppelinair said:
Japan, which started industrialization in 1868 (Meiji Ishin), successfully attacked Korea in 1875 (as you would know, the Unyo incident).
That was just 7 years. I am certain you would say that was becuase Japan had much more infrastructural development than Korea, even before the Meiji. But that was exactly why I let Jong-jo live 23 years more.

Not really. Western ideas continued to filter in through Dejima for more than two centuries, while Perry arrived in Japan in 1853, leading the first foreign warship to be imported from the Netherlands in 1855. Although the shogunate continued to resist western influences, it still managed to deploy eight warships during the Boshin War, suggesting that some major reforms had been carried out. In addition, the clans in the north gained political influence through trade with the Ainu, while southern ones did so with the Ryukyus, leading to a somewhat decentralized economic system centuries beforehand. Japan also did not invade Korea during the Unyo incident, but attempted to open it to trade, which is a different matter altogether.

zeppelinair said:
Interestingly, the main assumed cause of his death in 1800 in Korea is that he was assassinated- he was intoxicated by medicine. In Jong Yak-yong's 여유당 전서, he hypothesizes the possibility of his assassination, as while Jong-jo's malady was a simple ulcer, the doctors prescribed particularly dangerous methods of treatment that used much mercury. If he is able to escape this alleged fate, the major plans he had for Korea- "making the people prosperous"- would most possibly include development of needed infrastructure and increased sanitation, which would have positive demographic effects. Along that may be a growing knowledge of the outside world from inter-regional trade and translated texts from the Western World.

With development until the 1820s, and slow decline with famine and corruption for 2 decades, I believe quite a proportion may be willing for modernization. Therefore, the major effects wouldn't even need be felt from the 1880s- it may as well be felt from the 1860s, during the Second Opium War, when China is ripped in half with the Qing and Taiping- with foreign powers attacking both. Yes, Korea ITTL will attack the Pescadores Islands- or something similar to that.

I read that as well, and the alternate cause suggests that the court was powerful enough to manipulate the doctors, as they feared that the monarch might curtail their influence. In any case, he experienced several physical and mental (stress) issues which led to his death, so it would be extremely difficult to prolong his life by more than 10 years, as I stated earlier. In other words, the changes would have to be gradual in order to placate the court, and also significant enough in order to lead to further developments, which would be an extremely difficult balance to maintain for decades. As a result, I don't think that significant contacts with Europeans will occur until the 1940s or so, while gradual changes will only manifest in terms of the demography around 1940-60. Given how Japan did not attempt to interfere in Korea's affairs until 23 years after it had been opened up, and attacked China in 1894 despite earlier modernization, I don't think that Korea ITTL would have attempted to expand its influence abroad until 1890 or so. -democracy101
 
@zeppelinair: Thanks for posting the relevant details from our PMs.

For those of you who are confused, we had a private discussion for a while, some of which consisted of details relevant to this thread, as presented above.

The quotes are zeppelinair's points, while the responses are mine.
 
Just a quick query for anyone who is knowledgable in Japanese history-
how possible would it be for Japan to be slowly divided by foreign powers over sphere of influences? Would Japan survive under the shogunate? Would there be alliances of provinces in Japan(prefecture was a word that came after the 1870s)? I was making this TL because of a possible Koreawank, and I believe Korea has a good reason to start early in its interference in Japanese politics because, the last time Japan was fully unified, things didnt go well for Korea..perhaps it is in Korean interest to let Japan become divided into smaller pieces, and further islands like Hokkaido and Ryukyu to become independent.
 

Neirdak

Banned
In OTL :

The outbreak of the Donghak Peasant Revolution in 1894 provided a seminal pretext for direct military intervention by Japan in the affairs of Korea. In April, 1894 the Korean government asked for Chinese assistance in ending the Donghak Peasant Revolt. In response Japanese leaders, citing a violation of Convention of Tientsin as a pretext, decided upon military intervention to challenge China. On May 3, 1894, 1,500 Qing Dynasty forces appeared in Incheon. The same day, 6,000 Japanese forces also landed in Incheon producing the Sino-Japanese War. Japan won the First Sino-Japanese War and China signed the Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895.
ITTL

Impressed by the expand of Western power in Asia and doubtful about the real aims of Japan, Gojong of the Korean Empire decides to contact Karl Ivanovich Weber, the Russia's first consul general to Korea (who IOTL was a personal friend) in order to find a solution against the Donghak Peasant Revolution of 1894. We are the 15th February 1894 (battle of Jeongeup).

Ivanovich Weber explains him that Russia is ready to help his country in exchange of the rights to exploit natural ressources and to use a few ports. One modern Korea is seen by the russian strategists has a good buffer against the Japanese expansion. It could also provide many ports and a control on the Korean Straits. Free navigation is necessary for developpement of eastern Russia. Russia can't let Japan control those straits.

Ivanovich Weber also tells him, that without any ally, Korea would soon be conquered by the quickly industrializing Japan. The only possibility to save Korean sovereignity was to accept one limited protectorate. Balancing the various foreign barbarians wasn't the best method to survive in the new world order. During the night, Ivanovich Weber teaches the young King about the European colonization process and about the real bad position of Korea in the world. :p

Gojong is shocked by such informations and decides , after months of deep reflexion and numerous discussions with members of the Court, to speak about the "protectorate" possibility to his spouse. He meets her in March and explains her that this system was similar to the symbolic tribute that Korea continued to pay to the Middle Kingdom. The Russians was he told, would just ask to minor economic and trade concessions, in exchange a small and light populated country like Korea would become able to resist to the gigantic China and to win a new battle of Myeongnyang against the modern Japan.

His spouse is astonished to listen to such political maturity coming from her usually weak husband. She asks him, where he found such valuable informations about the world. Informations which totally contradict the informations she gets from her officials. Gojong immediately introduces her to Ivanovich Weber who was waiting in another room of the palace. The man explains her that Japan has expansion plans projects which include Korea. He even informs her that the Japanese could decide to assasinate her, painting one very negative image of the Japanese leadership. It's a bluff, but it works.

Queen Min calls her court and diplomatically informs the Japanese and the Chinese about the arrival of a small number russian advisors into Korea. Weber was also able to persuade her to appoint a new cabinet consisting of a "pro-Russian faction" led by Yi Wan-yong, Yi Boem-jin and Yi Yun-yong (as in OTL). In May 1894 (1896 in OTL), Weber signs the Kormura-Waeber Memorandum with his Japanese counterpart Komura Jotaru, granting Russia the right to station troops and ships in the Korean peninsula, and requiring the Japanese to recognise the new cabinet (as in OTL). Russia will also acquire mining and forestry concessions in (the) North (of) Korea :p as in OTL.

A second memorandum is signed with the Chinese envoy whose I forgot the name.

The main difference in TTL treaties is that Russia will not only send a huge number of troops, but also many civilians who will help to developp the country and to link it to the Trans-Siberian railways. Russian engineers, teachers and university professors will help to turn the Kingdom of Korea into one "Meiji Korea". Korean troops will participate to the international force sent to quell the Boxer Rebellion. This participation will ensure the entrance of Korea among the concert of civilized nations (and into the SDN later).
.
Before the Russo-Japanese War, the Russian navy and the Russian troops firmly implanted themselves into Korea. The Korean military will also be modernized and ready to fight any future military aggressions from Japan or China. The Russo-Japanese War began in 1905. The Japanese decision to avoid the Korea theater took the Russian defensive plan by surprise. This plan was based on one massive Japanese attack on Korea.

The Japanese surprise landing between Vladivostock and the Korean Peninsula bypassed the Korean Peninsula. The consecutive Pyrrhic Japanese victory of the Yalu River pushed General Aleksey Nikolaevich Kuropatkin, in charge of the Far East, to keep his russian and korean troops inside the Peninsula for the duration of the war. The lack of those potential reinforcements turned most of the next battles into Russian defeats. The Russian troops stationned in Korea could have been able to send reinforcements to Vladivostock or Port-Arthur.

Even if the presence of Korean ports helped the Russian Navy to save some of her military and civilian ships, it couldn't avoid the surprise attack of Port Arthur and the disastrous battles of the Yellow Sea and ill-fated battle of Tsushima.

In accordance with the treaty of Porstmouth, both Japan and Russia agreed to evacuate Mandchuria and split its sovereignty between China and Korea, but Japan leased the Liaodong Peninsula (containing Port Arthur and and Talien), and got the right to use the Russian rail system in southern Manchuria with access to strategic resources. Japan also received the southern half of the Island of Sakhalin from Russia. The treaty also cancelled the Russian protectorate on Korea.

The British impressed by the "Bushido spirit" and by modernity of the Japanese forces, decided to renew the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. This renewal can easily be explained as a British tentative to counter the increasing weight of the Russo-Korean Alliance in the area. The necessity to block the expanding Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Asia was capital to protect the colonies of India and the Middle East, according to the geopolitical theory of Mackinder (OTL English vision).

--> Mackinder, H.J. "The geographical pivot of history". The Geographical Journal, 1904, 23, pp. 421–37.

Many historians also consider that this alliance was a product of the European racist Zeitgeist : The fear of the Eurasian peril. The idea of the new Eurasian hordes, consisting of the fearless Japanese, the numerous Chinese, the born for war Mongols, all commanded by the industrious Koreans and the treachous Russians was popularized by a few books and seemed to have been interiorized among the Western European elites. The British-Japanese Alliance was a mean to divide those potential hordes : Divide ut regnes.

During WWI, Korea fought alongside in the Entente and helped to raid the german port of Tsingtao, alongside the Japanese troops. After the Soviet Revolution, many white Russians fled to Korean administrated Mandchuria and to Korea. The Russian minority is still nowadays, the third minority of the Korean Republic, only outnumbered than the Chinese and the Mandchu minorities. Russian is one of the numerous minority languages recognized in the country.

The Korean political situation after WWI was grim. The Korean soviet party established by Soviet advisors, the Royal Party and the Korean Republican Party had been unable to find any agreements during two decades since the end of the war. A political tremor occured when the KSP and the KRP decided to launch a common referendum in 1929 to abolish the monarchy. The King prefered to abdicate. This sudden abdication plunged the country into chaos which almost turned into a civil war. One solution was finally drawned. The country would a parliamentary Republic and the King would stay the representative of the Korean nation.

The Mandchurian plebiscite united the de-facto Korean administrated Mandchuria with Korea into one dual Confederation in 1935. The interbellum period (1918-1944) was difficult for Korea without its russian traditional protector and ally. The country, fearing a japanese hegemony, quickly modernized its military forces and economy with the help of Germany and Soviet Union. Korea even chose to kowtow Japan and sent many Korean students in the country to learn the best of the Japanese universities. Many Korea officiers were also sent into Japanese military academies. The trade of minerals with Japan would not stop until 1944.

The Interbellum period is particularly long as Korea is basically in the same situation as Switzerland. A neutral country with good armed forces, able to provide goods to the belligerents. Korea also chose to have friendly relations with Japan, playing the role of one sycophant.

The begining of WWII wasn't a surprise for the neutral Korea which became on armored turtle. In mid-1943, Japanese tried to launch a sneaky attack from the South. After bloody delaying battles, the Korean loyalist troops were pushed as far as the 38th parallel north, saving the industries which were evacuated further in the north. The attack on Korea was finally repelled with the combined help of Nationalist China's and Soviet troops in 1944. Korean troops were among the first ones landing on Japanese Islands in 1947 and in Taiwan in 1948. Korean troops fought again on chinese soil from 1949 to 1990, helping to defeat the rebellious communist forces, called Maoists.

The Korea economic miracle is still famous in history. The 1952 decision to link the recovering Japanese economy and the developping chinese economy to the still prosperous korean market was a move of genius. The East Asian Economic Community (EAEC) which nowadays also include Indochina, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and the Free City of Singapore was born. The economic and military presence of Korea helped to stabilize the area during the Cold War, even if military interventions were still necessary (Chinese Maoists, Indochina war, Indonesian genocide, Red Tibet crisis).

... continue or not to continue ...
 
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I think that a defeat for Japan in the Russo-Japanese War is the best way to give Korea that breathing space to become more powerful.

However, a Japanese defeat in the Russo-Japanese War has implications for the Russian Revolution of 1905 and the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, which was renewed in July 1905. If Japan has suffered a major setback, Britain has less motivation to keep the alliance going, and Japanese hardliners might decide they were better off on their own.

Without being bound to the Anglo-Japanese treaty, rather than merely sitting out WWI, Japan might even have entered the war against the Entente (though not necessarily joining the Central Powers).
 

Neirdak

Banned
I think that a defeat for Japan in the Russo-Japanese War is the best way to give Korea that breathing space to become more powerful.

However, a Japanese defeat in the Russo-Japanese War has implications for the Russian Revolution of 1905 and the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, which was renewed in July 1905. If Japan has suffered a major setback, Britain has less motivation to keep the alliance going, and Japanese hardliners might decide they were better off on their own.

Without being bound to the Anglo-Japanese treaty, rather than merely sitting out WWI, Japan might even have entered the war against the Entente (though not necessarily joining the Central Powers).

I changed the result of the Russo-Japanese into a draw and added those two short paragraphs :

The British impressed by the "Bushido spirit" and by modernity of the Japanese forces, decided to renew the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. This renewal can easily be explained as a British tentative to counter the increasing weight of the Russo-Korean Alliance in the area. The necessity to block the expanding Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Asia was capital to protect the colonies of India and the Middle East, according to the geopolitical theory of Mackinder (OTL English vision).

--> Mackinder, H.J. "The geographical pivot of history". The Geographical Journal, 1904, 23, pp. 421–37.

Many historians also consider that this alliance was a product of the European racist zeitgeist : The fear of the Eurasian peril. The idea of the new Eurasian hordes, consisting of the fearless Japanese, the numerous Chinese, commanded by the industrious Koreans and the treachous Russians was popularized by a few books and seemed to have been interiorized among the Western European elites. The British- Japanese Alliance was a mean to divide those potential hordes : Divide ut regnes.
 
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I changed the result of the Russo-Japanese into a draw and added this short paragraph.

The British impressed by the "Bushido spirit" and by modernity of the Japanese forces, decided to renew the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. This renewal can easily be explained as a British tentative to counter the increasing weight of the Russo-Korean Alliance in the area. The necessity to block the expanding Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Asia was capital to protect the colonies of India and the Middle East, according to the geopolitical theory of Mackinder (OTL English vision).

--> Mackinder, H.J. "The geographical pivot of history". The Geographical Journal, 1904, 23, pp. 421–37.
Looks good to me.
 

This essentially ignores the fact that Queen Min/Empress Myeongseong, Gojong's spouse, served as regent from 1873-95, not to mention that she had attempted to balance Chinese, Japanese, and Russian interests for two decades in order to prevent any one faction from becoming too influential. The presence of Russian troops in itself in this scenario suggests that Russia could theoretically turn Korea into a protectorate or even annex it outright, which the monarch and court would attempt to vehemently oppose. In addition, Korea would never attempt to seize Manchuria, as the latter had a significantly larger population by the late 19th century, causing the Koreans to become a minority after taking over the region. Also, Japan, which had more than twice the population of Korea by that time, ultimately failed to retain Manchuria in part due to the resistance by the Chinese, which composed more than 90% percent of the population, meaning that Korea would be less successful with a smaller native military/labor force.
 
Although, another thing to consider is that without the humiliating defeats that bring Russia to the table, the war might actually drag out for another six months to a year. That would have stretched the economic resources of the two countries to a breaking point. Russia may well have had its Revolution without the defeats.

Perhaps the most significant consequence of a prolonged war is that the Russians, Japanese and foreign observers will get to see a small scale demonstration of World War I. As the war would drag on, it would be increasingly hard for people to write off outcome as a fluke. Military strategies would be adjusted. A draw would also lead German and Austrian military planners to adjust their strategy for dealing with Russia in 1914.

One of the things that led to the rise of Japanese militarism was not just the fact that they had won the war, but the fact that they saw themselves getting a raw deal in the Treaty of Portsmouth. They had made spectacular gains and yet got very little out of the peace because of what they saw as the collective meddling of the Western powers (including the United States). The easy victories following the Russo-Japanese War in Korea and against the German possessions in World War I led to increased overconfidence in militarism.

A draw in the Russo-Japanese War would leave the Japanese Empire stillborn. This would ease a lot of tension between the United States and the Japanese. That, in turn, will have implications for the Washington Naval Conference even if World War I plays out as it did in OTL. It will also make the Anglo-Japanese Alliance more pliable likely leading to its renewal in 1921 rather than its demise. One of the main reasons it fell apart was that the Japanese saw the British favoring their rivals the Americans.

My point is that changing the Russo-Japanese War will likely have much greater implications than just the fate of Korea and Manchuria.
 
How about this; Japan lasts longer, perhaps the bombs weren't dropped, anyways the Soviets manage to invade all of Korea and perhaps split Japan with the Americans, Japan becomes the new Korea or Vietnam.

United Korea modernizes rapidly following the 5 year plans being put in place, and becomes a relatively stable nation for the region. Then the economy takes off.
 
In OTL :

ITTL

Impressed by the expand of Western power in Asia and doubtful about the real aims of Japan, Gojong of the Korean Empire decides to contact Karl Ivanovich Weber, the Russia's first consul general to Korea (who IOTL was a personal friend) in order to find a solution against the Donghak Peasant Revolution of 1894. We are the 15th February 1894 (battle of Jeongeup).

Ivanovich Weber explains him that Russia is ready to help his country in exchange of the rights to exploit natural ressources and to use a few ports. One modern Korea is seen by the russian strategists has a good buffer against the Japanese expansion. It could also provide many ports and a control on the Korean Straits. Free navigation is necessary for developpement of eastern Russia. Russia can't let Japan control those straits.

Ivanovich Weber also tells him, that without any ally, Korea would soon be conquered by the quickly industrializing Japan. The only possibility to save Korean sovereignity was to accept one limited protectorate. Balancing the various foreign barbarians wasn't the best method to survive in the new world order. During the night, Ivanovich Weber teaches the young King about the European colonization process and about the real bad position of Korea in the world. :p

Gojong is shocked by such informations and decides , after months of deep reflexion and numerous discussions with members of the Court, to speak about the "protectorate" possibility to his spouse. He meets her in March and explains her that this system was similar to the symbolic tribute that Korea continued to pay to the Middle Kingdom. The Russians was he told, would just ask to minor economic and trade concessions, in exchange a small and light populated country like Korea would become able to resist to the gigantic China and to win a new battle of Myeongnyang against the modern Japan.

His spouse is astonished to listen to such political maturity coming from her usually weak husband. She asks him, where he found such valuable informations about the world. Informations which totally contradict the informations she gets from her officials. Gojong immediately introduces her to Ivanovich Weber who was waiting in another room of the palace. The man explains her that Japan has expansion plans projects which include Korea. He even informs her that the Japanese could decide to assasinate her, painting one very negative image of the Japanese leadership. It's a bluff, but it works.

Queen Min calls her court and diplomatically informs the Japanese and the Chinese about the arrival of a small number russian advisors into Korea. Weber was also able to persuade her to appoint a new cabinet consisting of a "pro-Russian faction" led by Yi Wan-yong, Yi Boem-jin and Yi Yun-yong (as in OTL). In May 1894 (1896 in OTL), Weber signs the Kormura-Waeber Memorandum with his Japanese counterpart Komura Jotaru, granting Russia the right to station troops and ships in the Korean peninsula, and requiring the Japanese to recognise the new cabinet (as in OTL). Russia will also acquire mining and forestry concessions in (the) North (of) Korea :p as in OTL.

A second memorandum is signed with the Chinese envoy whose I forgot the name.

The main difference in TTL treaties is that Russia will not only send a huge number of troops, but also many civilians who will help to developp the country and to link it to the Trans-Siberian railways. Russian engineers, teachers and university professors will help to turn the Kingdom of Korea into one "Meiji Korea". Korean troops will participate to the international force sent to quell the Boxer Rebellion. This participation will ensure the entrance of Korea among the concert of civilized nations (and into the SDN later).
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Before the Russo-Japanese War, the Russian navy and the Russian troops firmly implanted themselves into Korea. The Korean military will also be modernized and ready to fight any future military aggressions from Japan or China. The Russo-Japanese War began in 1905. The Japanese decision to avoid the Korea theater took the Russian defensive plan by surprise. This plan was based on one massive Japanese attack on Korea.

The Japanese surprise landing between Vladivostock and the Korean Peninsula bypassed the Korean Peninsula. The consecutive Pyrrhic Japanese victory of the Yalu River pushed General Aleksey Nikolaevich Kuropatkin, in charge of the Far East, to keep his russian and korean troops inside the Peninsula for the duration of the war. The lack of those potential reinforcements turned most of the next battles into Russian defeats. The Russian troops stationned in Korea could have been able to send reinforcements to Vladivostock or Port-Arthur.

Even if the presence of Korean ports helped the Russian Navy to save some of her military and civilian ships, it couldn't avoid the surprise attack of Port Arthur and the disastrous battles of the Yellow Sea and ill-fated battle of Tsushima.

In accordance with the treaty of Porstmouth, both Japan and Russia agreed to evacuate Mandchuria and split its sovereignty between China and Korea, but Japan leased the Liaodong Peninsula (containing Port Arthur and and Talien), and got the right to use the Russian rail system in southern Manchuria with access to strategic resources. Japan also received the southern half of the Island of Sakhalin from Russia. The treaty also cancelled the Russian protectorate on Korea.

The British impressed by the "Bushido spirit" and by modernity of the Japanese forces, decided to renew the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. This renewal can easily be explained as a British tentative to counter the increasing weight of the Russo-Korean Alliance in the area. The necessity to block the expanding Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Asia was capital to protect the colonies of India and the Middle East, according to the geopolitical theory of Mackinder (OTL English vision).

--> Mackinder, H.J. "The geographical pivot of history". The Geographical Journal, 1904, 23, pp. 421–37.

Many historians also consider that this alliance was a product of the European racist Zeitgeist : The fear of the Eurasian peril. The idea of the new Eurasian hordes, consisting of the fearless Japanese, the numerous Chinese, the born for war Mongols, all commanded by the industrious Koreans and the treachous Russians was popularized by a few books and seemed to have been interiorized among the Western European elites. The British-Japanese Alliance was a mean to divide those potential hordes : Divide ut regnes.

During WWI, Korea fought alongside in the Entente and helped to raid the german port of Tsingtao, alongside the Japanese troops. After the Soviet Revolution, many white Russians fled to Korean administrated Mandchuria and to Korea. The Russian minority is still nowadays, the third minority of the Korean Republic, only outnumbered than the Chinese and the Mandchu minorities. Russian is one of the numerous minority languages recognized in the country.

The Korean political situation after WWI was grim. The Korean soviet party established by Soviet advisors, the Royal Party and the Korean Republican Party had been unable to find any agreements during two decades since the end of the war. A political tremor occured when the KSP and the KRP decided to launch a common referendum in 1929 to abolish the monarchy. The King prefered to abdicate. This sudden abdication plunged the country into chaos which almost turned into a civil war. One solution was finally drawned. The country would a parliamentary Republic and the King would stay the representative of the Korean nation.

The Mandchurian plebiscite united the de-facto Korean administrated Mandchuria with Korea into one dual Confederation in 1935. The interbellum period (1918-1944) was difficult for Korea without its russian traditional protector and ally. The country, fearing a japanese hegemony, quickly modernized its military forces and economy with the help of Germany and Soviet Union. Korea even chose to kowtow Japan and sent many Korean students in the country to learn the best of the Japanese universities. Many Korea officiers were also sent into Japanese military academies. The trade of minerals with Japan would not stop until 1944.

The Interbellum period is particularly long as Korea is basically in the same situation as Switzerland. A neutral country with good armed forces, able to provide goods to the belligerents. Korea also chose to have friendly relations with Japan, playing the role of one sycophant.

The begining of WWII wasn't a surprise for the neutral Korea which became on armored turtle. In mid-1943, Japanese tried to launch a sneaky attack from the South. After bloody delaying battles, the Korean loyalist troops were pushed as far as the 38th parallel north, saving the industries which were evacuated further in the north. The attack on Korea was finally repelled with the combined help of Nationalist China's and Soviet troops in 1944. Korean troops were among the first ones landing on Japanese Islands in 1947 and in Taiwan in 1948. Korean troops fought again on chinese soil from 1949 to 1990, helping to defeat the rebellious communist forces, called Maoists.

The Korea economic miracle is still famous in history. The 1952 decision to link the recovering Japanese economy and the developping chinese economy to the still prosperous korean market was a move of genius. The East Asian Economic Community (EAEC) which nowadays also include Indochina, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and the Free City of Singapore was born. The economic and military presence of Korea helped to stabilize the area during the Cold War, even if military interventions were still necessary (Chinese Maoists, Indochina war, Indonesian genocide, Red Tibet crisis).

... continue or not to continue ...

Hi. Thanks for the great answer. Some criticisms to make, if it's even possible to criticize such a well-versed timeline:
i) my thoughts have changed. I was thinking of starting the POD at 1860; however, after some conversations with democracy101 (you could see page 1 for it), I realized the POD should be much earlier. So I thought 1800 would suffice. Anyways, it's a fault on my part to not tell you that was my change in mind.
ii) Because I changed the POD to 1800, many things changed- I thought that, because Korea would be industrialized from an early point in history, Korea would be able to colonize not only Manchuria but also Southeast Asia (Taiping China, Northern Indochina) and Africa (Tanzania?!!:cool:). Although I am still planning on how that would happen, I think I could pull off this Korea-wank fairly well.
iii) Due to your focus on the early 1900s, I am reminded of another POD I was thinking of making- where the Korean Provisional Government would be more united and stable under An Chang-ho, instead of Rhee Syngman. A possibility was that, due to Korean lobbyists and Koreans fighting alongside Americans in the Pacific War, MacArthur decided to land in Korea instead of Japan IOTL. That would significantly reduce Soviet influence in Korea, as Kim Il-sung wasn't even in Korea during the time. A unified Korea from 1946, with a divided Japan.... something to quite consider.

Anyways, thanks for the fruitful conversation you've brought me into!:D
(I don't even think my comments make any sense, but who cares?:cool:)
 
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