Challenge: Make Iraq a Better Enemy

Saddam at least in the early to mid 80s was always brutal, but he seemed more in touch with reality in a better at not pissing off the West overtly. As time went on he just got more brutal and his judgement seemed to really decline to the point were he was having his blood drained each day to have the most holy of all Qur'ans written etched in his own blood.

Qur'an etched in Saddam Hussein's blood poses dilemma for Iraq leaders

It was etched in the blood of a dictator in a ghoulish bid for piety. Over the course of two painstaking years in the late 1990s, Saddam Hussein had sat regularly with a nurse and an Islamic calligrapher; the former drawing 27 litres of his blood and the latter using it as a macabre ink to transcribe a Qur'an. But since the fall of Baghdad, almost eight years ago, it has stayed largely out of sight - locked away behind three vaulted doors. It is the one part of the ousted tyrant's legacy that Iraq has simply not known what to do with.

The vault in the vast mosque in Baghdad has remained locked for the past three years, keeping the 114 chapters of the Muslim holy book out of sight - and mind - while those who run Iraq have painstakingly processed the other cultural remnants of 30 years of Saddam and the Ba'ath party.

"What is in here is priceless, worth absolutely millions of dollars," said Sheikh Ahmed al-Samarrai, head of Iraq's Sunni Endowment fund, standing near the towering minarets of the west Baghdad mosque that Saddam named "the Mother of All Battles". Behind him is the infamous Blood Qur'an, written in Saddam's own blood.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/19/saddam-legacy-quran-iraqi-government

Then when every other dictatorship in the world other then the Taliban is trying to show after 911 they don't support this and its terrible Saddam has the Iraqi state run press praise it and posters of him put up with the twin towers burning in the background. Even Gaddafi, Assad and the Mullahs knew this was not the time to be poking America in the eye.

hussein_poster_911sm.jpg


Saddam was never any less brutal or evil, but as the years went on he started to really lose touch with reality and seemingly became somewhat demented in my view. He wouldn't be the only dictator that has happened to. His judgement in the early 80s was better then his judgement a decade later and certainly better then his judgement two decades later.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I'd agree with that. It is very clear that the Saddam regime had indeed become demented in those final years. I think his surviving the First Gulf War is what accelerated him into the total disconnect from reality. It wasn't until after the War and the imposition of sanctions, after all, that he built himself a palace-complex in every single one of Iraq's provinces.
 
How about making them a much worse enemy?

-Saddam wins a clear victory over Iran after the battle of Dezful is followed up with a near destruction of the Iran armored divisions. Iraqi forces push farther into Iran as marxist Mujdahadeen forces run wild through some of the cities.


-Without the attack on H3 as in OTL, Iraqi air power makes the difference and Abadan falls with the destruction of much of the local Pasdaran in the process.


-By mid 1981 much of Khuzestan province and border areas are in Iraqi hands and a truce is called, eventually the Iraqis will take the whole of Khuzestan as part of a peace settlement


-Syria, which blocked a pipeline to Iraqi in solidarity with Iran late in the war, experiences unrest from the Muslim Brotherhood. Saddam promises them a new government for Syria if they rally to him should he invade. Saddam invades and eventually annezes Syria


-Syrian occupants in Lebanon are used as an excuse to "settle" the Civil War there as well, creating a quagmire for Iraq which has now overrun two sovereign countries and ruthlessly invaded a third. American and Israeli attention to both slows the Iraqis while Jordan decides that being a friend of Israel is better than an ally of Baghdad, accelerating the division with the PLO and promising neutrality if Israel invades the new Iraqi territories


-Iraq official merges with Syria and Lebanon in a rebirth of the United Arab Republic, though in reality it is simply Greater Iraq. A secret map in Saddam's office lists a UAR inclusive of the whole of Arabia, Iran, Turkey, the Levant, Egypt, and Cyprus as part of his eventual dream, with the whole of northern Africa, Soviet Central Asia, the Caucacus, Spain, and Pakistan as realms for future expansion. To those who recognize the map it is clear Saddam intends to restore the Caliphate


-Osiriak is outright destroyed by Israeli fighters along with H3, rallying the UAR populace behind Saddam despite his frank tyranny


-PLO gets support from Saddam and intends to deliver both Palestine (Israel) and Jordan to Baghdad, resulting in a relentless campaign of terrorism that would shock the world even in OTL


-Saddam sends smaller units to Afghanistan for real-world combat training along with PLO operatives to learn from Mujahadeen operatives there. In a move deciding to mirror some of the tactics used by Iran, Saddam recruits out of the worst neighborhoods in the Arab world in a new Baa'thist vision of the glory days of the Caliphate restored


-Stinger missiles, newer tanks, and other technologies are imported via Russia and the United States (thanks to unscrupulous middlemen in the later case). UAR pushes ahead with nuclear research with some help from Syrian contacts who enjoy UAR money


-UAR armed forces upgrade, train, and retool for much of the 1980s while nucelar research continues unabated with some interference from Israeli bombings. These serve as political capital for the UAR which has the bulk of nuclear research in three remote locations, only one of which is actually attacked


-UAR detonates a 14kT atomic weapon on August 15, 1990 with a 140kT weapon detonated a few months later, this chilling development prompts a reassessment of the UAR and its abilities in the region.


-In mid-1992 following the fall of the USSR several key scientists from that nation find their way to a smaller town in central Iraq. Also almost several kg of highly enriched uranium is later found to be missing from Russian stockpiles. Over the next 5 years large caches of Russian military equipment, including advanced fighter aircraft, submarines, tanks, infantry missile systems, and other technologies find their way to the UAR


-By 2000 the UAR accuses Kuwait of slant-drilling in the region and announces claims of Western interferences in Saudi Arabia, negotiations (read: blind extortion attempts) with both nations fail. UAR invasions of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Jordan, and Oman occur almost simultaneously. Yemens soon follows as UAR tanks and mechanized infantry roll across the whole of the Arabian peninsula and leave its borders defined only by bodies of water, Turkey, Israel, and Iran. The Straits of Hormuz are closed to oil tankers pending UN recognition of integration of these areas into the UAR system along with Security Council acknowledgement of Baghdad's control of the area. Saddam even is bold enough to propose that Brazil, India, South Africa, and the UAR all be elevated to permanement membership of that body.


-Estimates of UAR armed forces at the end of 2000:

*30+ working nuclear weapons at unknown locations, yields in at least the 100kT range for several of them, unknown though unlikely that they have thermonuclear capability

*IRBM range of 1500KM

*Tanks including T-80s with reactive armor

*Fighters including MiG-31s, Su-33s, and several captured aircraft from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others

*More field experience for officers

*A distinct group of special operations commandoes though not nearly of the quality of SEALs et al

*A navy limited to coastal defence but with Exocet missiles and fighters capable of using them

*Definitive control of the entire Arabian peninsula and Fertile Crescent minus Israel

*Israelis preparing to counterattack via Lebanon, Golan, and Jordan though worried about nuclear retaliation, PLO reprisals, and what public images will do for the Arab world

*US has been cutting back the military and little real world experience, plus nearest major bases are at Incirlik, southern Italy, and Diego Garcia

*UAR has means to attack Turkey with significant ground forces and trying to cower them into neutrality even if it means breaking NATO treaties

*Psychologists think Saddam will unleash WMDs whether provoked or not
 
How about making them a much worse enemy?

-Saddam wins a clear victory over Iran after the battle of Dezful is followed up with a near destruction of the Iran armored divisions. Iraqi forces push farther into Iran as marxist Mujdahadeen forces run wild through some of the cities.

Possible, but the biggest change would have to be Saddam and the Baath Party deciding to follow Hitler's example and not force their generals and top officers to all be picked mainly for their loyalty to the party.

If Hitler had done what Saddam did and staked the top of his Army with all hard core party loyalitists the attack on France would have been beaten with ease and in 1941 Germany would have fallen to the French and British.
 
Saddam being much less crazy or paranoid requires either a much earlier POD or replacement altogether, my thought was that without the long Iran-Iraq war and the resources to justify excursions elsewhere that Iraq might play both sides against each other and set up a somewhat unified Baa'thist state including modern Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq with southwesternmost Iran without getting the West involved. As a result Iraq would have more money, infrastructure, population, resources, and if not overly crazy might have avoided the worst of the economic recession of the late 1980s until later. By the time they invade in my timeline they have upgraded fission nukes and could take much of the Arabian pennisula before getting the West involved. Without Iran and with Turkey on the northern flank in the direct path of this menace, options would be much more difficult for opposing powers and Saddam would control a major chunk of the region's oil assets. Ironically it might be enough to unite Iran, Israel, the US, and Russia against him.

The resulting shortage of oil in the West would also see gas prices spike with a major incentive to develop alternative energy. Maybe we see more nuclear reactors stateside or practical fusion by 2025?
 
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