Challenge: Make a non ASB sealion happen and succeed

With a PoD being after the nazis assume power, make a non ASB operation Sealion happen and succeed. Bonus points for it happening in 1940.

The definition of "success" is the Germans at least establishing a presence in South England that can't be kicked out immediately or cut off by the RN.

If you somehow manage to make the unmentionable sea mammal work without the help of the ASBs, discus the likely butterflies and outcomes.

( And before anyone posts, please do not let this turn into a debate on the historical circumstances, the point is to reach an alternate set of circumstances in a non ASB way. )
 
Since the POD can be after the Nazi rise to power in 1933, have the Germans put more priority to a decent Kriegsmarine surface fleet.

Other than that, enough said. Please refer to the link below.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=180901

A bigger KM does not strike me as one of the things that wins Sealion realistically. Sure some extra CAs and CLs might help a lot, but it would not be the key thing as the RN will always be bigger. A stronger air force with more anti ship capacities and more landing craft seem more key. You're never going to get the UK invaded following the KM defeating the RN in a big conventional battle.
 

Markus

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I can't see any way a bigger surface fleet is going to help the Germans much. Maybe if they skipped the battleships and went purely with fast carriers and cruisers that might help some. Of course they wouldn't be fighting in the Pacific with its huge amounts of room for carriers to hide and maneuver. And we can't assume that the Brits would keep the same mix of ships if the Germans were building several carriers.

As somebody mentioned up-thread, better anti-shipping aircraft would help. Better air-droppable mines and more of them would be good. I've mentioned elsewhere that a version of one of their bombers specifically designed for ship-straffing might be handy--something like the B24s the US decked out with lots of forward facing 50 cals and used to devastate Japanese merchant shipping and warships up to destroyer-size.

Given the right aircraft and the right training, I suppose that the Germans could try to catch the Brits with a Pearl Harbor-type attack within a day or two of the British declaration of war. Historically the Germans didn't have anything like the capability to pull that off, but given six years to prepare I suppose they might be able to put something together. They wouldn't be able to catch all of the fleet, and I'm not sure they could catch enough of it to significantly alter the naval balance, but it might be worth trying.

Catching almost all of the BEF in Belgium would help. The French were historically worried that the Brits would sail off and leave them in the lurch if the battle got hot, and tried to make sure they always had units between the Brits and any major port. If they had been a bit more successful with that in terms of deployment I could see the vast majority of the BEF getting caught in Belgium--assuming that the redistribution of forces didn't butterfly away the German victory in France some way. Having very little in the way of trained enemy to fight against would have made the German task much easier.

From the point of view of a successful Sea Lion, the Germans could build up larger airborne forces and equip them better, but that has an impact on the quality of their ground forces. Airborne forces burned off good officer and NCO material at an appalling rate. Not burning off their airborne forces in Holland would have been helpful for the Germans.
 
I think that British mistakes have a better chance of making a successful Sea Lion possible than most things the Germans could do. Some examples:

1) There was always competition between Bomber Command and Fighter Command for resources. What if Bomber Command had made a successful case that the Bomber was always going to get through and that bombing was the only real counter. Maybe some bright guy in Bomber Command points out that aluminized strips of Mylar could spoof these new-fangled radar stations and delays their deployment by a year or two.

2) The Brits were experimenting with fighter planes with the firepower concentrated in a powered turret--actually built some. It sounded like a good idea but didn't work well at all when war started. What if they had decided that this was the wave of the future, built a bunch of them as their next generation fighter--replacing Spitfire production and some Hurricane production, holding them back from the fighting until the crucial moment to preserve their 'advantage' and then discovered in May 1940 that much of their fighter force was close to useless? Of course they would start switching over to Spitfire production as soon as feasible, but it would take months before they got much.

3) The Brits commit more of their fighter reserve to the Battle of France. The French wanted them to, but hadn't made provisions for that to happen. If they had and the Brits lost more planes and pilots in Battle of France, then they end up in a much worse position in BOB.

Add those three mistakes together and it makes Sea Lion a bit more feasible, especially if the Germans had made a lot of the right moves in the seven years leading up to the summer of 1940. I'm still not sure Sea Lion works.
 
I agree with the point 'DaleCoz' is making i.e. it is not what the Germans do better that counts, but what the british do worse!

Either no RDF., or stations are not due for completion of network for another six months.

No Merlin - maybe Schneider Trophy is entered by RAF - so Hurricanes & Spitfires have to make do with Kestrel engines, giving the 109 a much easier task!
 
Since the POD can be after the Nazi rise to power in 1933, have the Germans put more priority to a decent Kriegsmarine surface fleet.

Other than that, enough said. Please refer to the link below.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=180901

The British would need to be Draka style stupid to not see what the German intentions are here and either be more forceful on appeasement or at least match the German build up.

Also the size of the fleet needed to beat the British would likely void the successes in France.
 
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