Challenge: lasting Fürstenbund

Fürstenbund, German League of Princes, founded on July 23, 1785, under the leadership of King Frederick II the Great of Prussia to preserve the status quo among the several German states and curb the ambitions in Germany of the Holy Roman emperor Joseph II. It represented the final phase of the conflict between Frederick and the Austrian Habsburgs. Earlier, Frederick had thwarted Joseph’s plan to annex Bavaria (in the War of the Bavarian Succession, 1778–79), but in the early 1780s, Joseph renewed his attempts. Frederick was able to persuade other princes—of Saxony, Hanover, and later Saxe-Weimar, Saxe-Gotha, Palatinate-Zweibrücken, Brunswick, Baden, Hesse-Kassel, Anhalt, Ansbach, Mecklenburg, the electorate of Mainz, and other lesser states—to join a league in opposition to Joseph. Joseph was daunted and dropped his Bavarian designs rather than risk another military defeat at the hands of Prussia. Although only temporary, the league represented the first organization of German states headed by Prussia but disbanded at the onset of the French revolution.

If Joseph II didn't back down, could the Fürstenbund have defeated him and become an early North German Confederation? Could it force Joseph to disband the Holy Roman Empire as well?
 
If Joseph II didn't back down, could the Fürstenbund have defeated him and become an early North German Confederation? Could it force Joseph to disband the Holy Roman Empire as well?

If Joseph II had fought a war against the Furstenbund, he would have lost. The only way Austria could have beaten such a league is with the help of allies. France was allied to Austria in 1785 but was sympathetic to the Furstenbund and most likely would not have supported Austria in such an act of aggression. Russia was also allied to Austria, Catherine the Great had tried to prevent the creation of the Furstenbund, but was interested in fighting the Ottomans for her own benefit. Catherine wanted Joseph’s armies fighting in the Balkans instead of Germany. If Joseph had lost such a war, the league would not have dissolved the Empire, the princes wanted to preserve it and prevent Austria from becoming too powerful.
 
If Joseph II had fought a war against the Furstenbund, he would have lost. The only way Austria could have beaten such a league is with the help of allies. France was allied to Austria in 1785 but was sympathetic to the Furstenbund and most likely would not have supported Austria in such an act of aggression. Russia was also allied to Austria, Catherine the Great had tried to prevent the creation of the Furstenbund, but was interested in fighting the Ottomans for her own benefit. Catherine wanted Joseph’s armies fighting in the Balkans instead of Germany. If Joseph had lost such a war, the league would not have dissolved the Empire, the princes wanted to preserve it and prevent Austria from becoming too powerful.

How about a more indecisive war between them? With Russia and France reluctantly giving Joseph at least enough force to fight back.
 
France and Russia did not want Joseph II to acquire Bavaria anymore than the league of princes. The main reason they did not help the Furstenband in OTL was because they were allied in Austria and needed to maintain their alliance for their own purposes. France did not want Austria to either acquire Bavaria or defeat the Furstenband because it would have increased Joseph’s power in the empire. It was standard policy for France to prevent the emperor from becoming too powerful and threaten them. France wanted to keep the empire as disunited as possible. Catherine the Great also did not want Austria to become too powerful. France and Russia wanted Austria just strong enough to help them fight their own conflicts.

As for indecisive war between Joseph and the Furstenband, such a result would be difficult to achieve. Joseph could not beat a Saxony- Prussia alliance in the War of the Bavarian Succession so he would be hard pressed to beat a league of princes that included additional allies.
 
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