Challenge: Keep Uruguay (Cisplatine) in Brazil until today

Alexpira · Oct 1, 2011

A challenge: avoid the Uruguayan independence and keep it in Brazil until 2011.
What would be the implications of a Brazilian Uruguay? War with Argentina? A Platine Spanish-speaking Quebec inside Brazil or a lusophonic Rio da Prata?

Rules: POD no sooner than 1800 and mandatory Spanish colonization of the territory as OTL before the POD

Gonzaga · Oct 1, 2011

I once asked a similar question, maybe it might help with the discussions

: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=117565

Grumpy young Man · Oct 1, 2011

Maybe something like this - during the War of Farrapos ( internal brazilian rebellion ) Republic of Rio Grande has tried to form an alliance with Uruguay.

IRL Uruguay had a low intensity civil war between conservatives ( Blancos ) and liberals ( Colorados ) but let's say that it does not happen so Montevideo can have more stronger foreign policy concerning Brazil. In the same time France and Britain were annoyed by argentinian dictator Manuel de Rosas and his policies of setting up high tariffs and mounted a naval blocade in response. As additional form of pressure aimed at Buenos Aires they allow Brazil to annex Uruguay when they inevitably defeat Rio Grande.

Consequences would be pretty simple, Brazil is guaranteed to achieve dominance in S.America as it was IRL but this time a bit earlier since it is a little bigger.

Alexpira · Oct 1, 2011

Tks Gonzaga...as a gaucho, what do you think that would be the internal consequences to Brazil of an Cisplatina state in 2011? My guess is that we would see something like a Hispanic Quebec in Brazil....

Guilherme Loureiro · Oct 2, 2011

Grumpy young Man said:
IRL Uruguay had a low intensity civil war between conservatives ( Blancos ) and liberals ( Colorados ) but let's say that it does not happen so Montevideo can have more stronger foreign policy concerning Brazil. In the same time France and Britain were annoyed by argentinian dictator Manuel de Rosas and his policies of setting up high tariffs and mounted a naval blocade in response. As additional form of pressure aimed at Buenos Aires they allow Brazil to annex Uruguay when they inevitably defeat Rio Grande.

By then it's too late, IMO. I think that, if Uruguay is to be kept as a prt of Brazil, it'll have to be done at the Cisplatine War. The battle at Passo do Rosário/Ituzaingó is too late to be of any real effect, so the POD will have to be earlier. Maybe a victory at Sarandi?

Alexpira, I don't think things would be quite like Quebec. I think we'd see some cultural distinctiveness, but not that much.

Another interesting thing. By keeping Uruguay in Brazil, you remove the immediate cause of the Triple Alliance War, although I think something like it would still happen.

Razgriz 2K9 · Oct 2, 2011

Guilherme Loureiro said:
By then it's too late, IMO. I think that, if Uruguay is to be kept as a prt of Brazil, it'll have to be done at the Cisplatine War. The battle at Passo do Rosário/Ituzaingó is too late to be of any real effect, so the POD will have to be earlier. Maybe a victory at Sarandi?

Alexpira, I don't think things would be quite like Quebec. I think we'd see some cultural distinctiveness, but not that much.

Another interesting thing. By keeping Uruguay in Brazil, you remove the immediate cause of the Triple Alliance War, although I think something like it would still happen.

For a War of the Triple Alliance to still happen in an ATL where the Brazilian Empire continued to own Cisplatina would require an alternate analogue to Uruguay, such as Bolivia, but realistically, I think Bolivia was a bit more stable and stronger than Uruguay was.

Gonzaga · Oct 2, 2011

Alexpira said:
Tks Gonzaga...as a gaucho, what do you think that would be the internal consequences to Brazil of an Cisplatina state in 2011? My guess is that we would see something like a Hispanic Quebec in Brazil....

Guilherme Loureiro said:
By then it's too late, IMO. I think that, if Uruguay is to be kept as a prt of Brazil, it'll have to be done at the Cisplatine War. The battle at Passo do Rosário/Ituzaingó is too late to be of any real effect, so the POD will have to be earlier. Maybe a victory at Sarandi?

Alexpira, I don't think things would be quite like Quebec. I think we'd see some cultural distinctiveness, but not that much.

Another interesting thing. By keeping Uruguay in Brazil, you remove the immediate cause of the Triple Alliance War, although I think something like it would still happen.

Pretty much as Guilherme said, I doubt we would have a "Platinean Quebec". There would be cultural differences (think as a Rio Grande do Sul on steroids

). But I guess that during the 19th and 20th century there would be a process of "Brazilianization" of the place. Except for the accent and some Spanish words they would be speaking Portuguese by now.

Guilherme Loureiro · Oct 3, 2011

Razgriz 2K9 said:
For a War of the Triple Alliance to still happen in an ATL where the Brazilian Empire continued to own Cisplatina would require an alternate analogue to Uruguay

Not necessarily. Solano López had a stake in Uruguay, because Montevideo was the main port for Paraguayan goods, being an independent alternative to Buenos Aires(and its tariffs). If Uruguay stays part of Brazil, Paraguay has two(actually, three) options to sell its produce: depend on the Argentineans or depend on Brazil(the third option would be use Bolivian ports, but I'm not sure how feasible this is). Somehow, I don't see López(assuming he still becomes the president of Paraguay) accepting this; I do think he would use any excuse to intervene.

miguelrj · Oct 8, 2011

Winning the Cisplatine War is the most likely PoD but carrying on keeping Uruguay will be very difficult.
Argentina's irredentist claims will still be there and they'll be waiting for another opportunity to have it "back". The Farroupilha revolution (or any equivalent) will be a great opportunity.

So, WI Argentina - a different one - has no irredentist claims to the area?
My thought comes to the Republic of Entre Ríos. It was not really a seperatist polity but it could have evolved that way. It'd make a great buffer state! The Brazilians upon knowing of its creation could very well try to buy out its caudillo and both encouraging and enabling him to setting up a truly independent state there.

TTL Argentina will probably move its capital to Cordoba (like it has been suggested on Gonzaga's thread) and will be known by one of its original alternate names: United Provinces of South America. It may still claim to be the successor state the Viceroyalty of the Río de la Plata but it'll know it is just one among others.

Having an independent Republic of Entre Ríos will be very interesting if Solano López isn't butterflied away. If he annexes Entre Ríos he'll fulfill his wish of a Greater Paraguay with access to the sea. He would have his focus shifted away from Brazil and Argentina and towards absorbing Entre Ríos.

Alexpira · Oct 12, 2011

A question to all....would would the 21st. Century Brazilian Cisplatina state in political, social and economic aspects? How would the inffluence of this state to the rest of Brazil and vice-versa?