Challenge: Keep the South Democratic

While the Civil Rights Act, as well as the urbanization and rise white collar employment in the region, began the transition of the South from the Democratic party to the Republican party, it really took until the 90's for the South to go solid red. Before that, even as the South gradually transitioned to voting Republican nationally, local elections were still very Democratic for quite some time, and I believe it took until the "Republican Revolution" of 1994 for that to really change.

So the challenge is to keep the South Democratic with a POD no earlier than the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. No cheating and just having Civil Rights not happen. Keep in mind Democratic doesn't mean Socially Liberal Democratic, it just means within the Democratic party.
 
It's relatively easy if you get a combination of
A) no conservative takeover of the Republicans, which really could be as easy as Reagan never making The Speech at the 1964 National Convention, so no Reagan, so nothing salvageable comes out of nominating Goldwater for President. Mind you, there will still be conservatives in the party, but they will be no where near the dominant faction.
B)More Dixiecrats. George Wallace, John McKeithen, Jimmy Carter... the more that get on a national ticket, the higher the probability of conservatives staying in the party.
 
So the challenge is to keep the South Democratic with a POD no earlier than the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. No cheating and just having Civil Rights not happen. Keep in mind Democratic doesn't mean Socially Liberal Democratic, it just means within the Democratic party.

Nicomacheus and I discussed this in my timeline (and at various other places). The Civil Rights Act hurt, but certainly a big government socially conservative Democratic Party can compete in the South.

Combine with a socially liberal financially conservative Republican Party and things aren't terribly difficult.

Busing is a key massive huge issue. The ATL Democratic Party can't back busing.

There's all sorts of problems from neoconservatives (in the original terminology) and the right-wing activists but there's plenty of workable thought.

Hmm. I'll go look up some old threads.
 

mowque

Banned
As states, the trick is the Dems have to make a choice. Urban big cities or the South. You just can't keep both, since they kept drifting further and further apart. Even before WW2 (heck, even WW1), the cracks were forming and the New Deal coalition was just cheap plaster.
 
Well, could there be an event that causes the Deep South to swing left? Not socially, but economically rather? Perhaps enough to support an economically leftist party over a socially conservative party that was also economically conservative.
 
Best case scenario is that the South could remain mostly (if not solidly Democratic) to the present day. On the Presidential and Congressional level, Florida, Texas, Virginia and North Carolina were trendng Republican starting with Dwight Eisenhower's election in 1952. This was due to northern Republicans migrating to these states, forming suburbs and bringing their voting habits with them.
 

JoeMulk

Banned
I wonder if RFK's support among the working class of all races could have picked off enough white southerners in addition to southern blacks to at least keep the south competitive at the presidential level.
 

Anderman

Donor
Wouldn´t it be the simplest solution that the Democrats stay or became conservative if the Republicans don´t became conservative :confused:
 
The best way is really if the country becomes a one party state like it was from 1860 to 1912. This would however require a major war/recession.
 

JoeMulk

Banned
The best way is really if the country becomes a one party state like it was from 1860 to 1912. This would however require a major war/recession.

It could have happened if say the recession of 37-38 had been avoided and the Democrats had another round of gaining seats in 38.
 
It could have happened if say the recession of 37-38 had been avoided and the Democrats had another round of gaining seats in 38.
Or if the Republican Party continues to oppose the New Deal consensus, instead of adapting themselves to it.
 
Perhaps Rocky is the GOP candidate in 1964, while Strom Thurmond stays a Democrat, as does John Conally. Nelson Rockefeller wins in 1968 against George Wallace, and after two terms Scoop Jackson becomed the Democratic candidate in 1976 losing to George H W Bush Meanwhile, Bobby Kennedy and Gene McCarthy are the first of many Dems to ditch the party for the GOP. Hubert Humphrey follows suit. Reagan switches back to the Democrats in 1973. Reagan gets elected in 1980 as a democrat due to X foreign policy debacle and Y recession. serves two terms, finally solidifying conservative control over the Democrats, as the last of the liberals ditch them for the GOP.
List of presidents:
1969-77: Nelson Rockefeller (R)
1977-81: George H W Bush (R)
1981-89: Ronald Reagan (D)
1989-97: Al Gore (D)
1997-2005: Arlen Specter (R)
2005-present: Colin Powell (R)
 
Perhaps Rocky is the GOP candidate in 1964, while Strom Thurmond stays a Democrat, as does John Conally. Nelson Rockefeller wins in 1968 against George Wallace, and after two terms Scoop Jackson becomed the Democratic candidate in 1976 losing to George H W Bush Meanwhile, Bobby Kennedy and Gene McCarthy are the first of many Dems to ditch the party for the GOP. Hubert Humphrey follows suit. Reagan switches back to the Democrats in 1973. Reagan gets elected in 1980 as a democrat due to X foreign policy debacle and Y recession. serves two terms, finally solidifying conservative control over the Democrats, as the last of the liberals ditch them for the GOP.
List of presidents:
1969-77: Nelson Rockefeller (R)
1977-81: George H W Bush (R)
1981-89: Ronald Reagan (D)
1989-97: Al Gore (D)
1997-2005: Arlen Specter (R)
2005-present: Colin Powell (R)

RFK would never switch to the GOP even in this scenario. Especially with Rocky in the White House.
 
Best case scenario is that the South could remain mostly (if not solidly Democratic) to the present day. On the Presidential and Congressional level, Florida, Texas, Virginia and North Carolina were trendng Republican starting with Dwight Eisenhower's election in 1952. This was due to northern Republicans migrating to these states, forming suburbs and bringing their voting habits with them.

This is happening now as well, only with the opposite results. Same with Georgia. Obama won VA, FL, & N.C. and came close in GA. Texas is also a lot less 'safe' for the republicans than a lot of people seem to think. The growing Hispanic population and influx on young college students who then stay after graduation could eventually put Texas in play, though it'll take a good while if it ever does.

I think the GoP needs to realize that the tea party is only hurting them in the long-term due to this. If the south becomes more moderate over the next 20 years, or perhaps even a state like Virginia becomes reliably blue (as I think it's trending toward) then they could find themselves in a tough spot. They need to be actively trying to turn voters in states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, etc.

As for the timeline... busing is a key, yes, but you also have to consider that Clinton did well in the south as late as 1996. It wasn't until 2000 that the GoP really took over as the majority party in the deep south. I think a lot of that had to do with the Clinton/Lewenski scandal and the reaction of social/religious conservatives in the south. It's telling that Al Gore couldn't even win his home state of Tennessee in 2000.

Also, 9/11 was big. It helped to create more clearly divided demographics between the south, which was more pro-Bush and pro-military and the more liberal states where you were more likely to see protests against the war in Iraq and Bush.

This helped lead to the democrats being perceived by many in the south as a party of bleeding heart liberals who, in their view, didn't support their country/President in a time of war. Now, I don't agree with that view, but being from the south I can tell you it's what a LOT of folks down here were thinking at the time.
 
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