Challenge: Japanese-American Alliance in WW2

Let's say that the Japanese decide not to ally themselves with Germany and Italy.

Then, Japan and the United States form an alliance, that may or may not be with the Allied Forces.

The POD can go as far back as 1800.

How would this be possible? What effects will it have on the war? Long term effects? Short term? Is this ASB?

Your opinions, good people of AH.com.
 
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Let's say that the Japanese decide not to ally themselves with Germany and Italy.

Then, Japan and the United States form an alliance, that may or may not be with the Allied Forces.

The POD can go as far back as 1800.

How would this be possible? What effects will it have on the war? Long term effects? Short term? Is this ASB?

Your opinions, good people of AH.com.

Well, in my opinion, the fundamental basis of the Italy-Japan-Germany alliance was simply that all three were dissatisfied powers, who wanted to overturn the existing order. If the Japanese Empire was more satisfied with its position in the world, then expansionist voices in the government and military would have had less influence. That would reduce much of the friction between Japan and the West.

The easiest way to have Japan as part of the United Nations is just to keep the Anglo-Japanese Alliance alive. I think both sides would be happiest keeping the AJA going as long as the Americans aren't against it. I have no idea how you could achieve this, though. The Americans put a lot of pressure on the UK to let the treaty go. Maybe if there is some specific clause in the treaty to say that it would not take effect in case of a war between either power and the US, the US won't be against it.

I think antagonism between the US and Japan is inevitable as long as their spheres of influence meet. The best you can hope for is that Washington Naval Treaty analogues keep things like naval races and island fortification to a minimum. There is a great TL on this board where China joins the Axis forces... The easiest way to keep Japan in the Allied camp is if Japan has problems that keep them worrying as much about the Western powers, or if Japan has an enemy in common with the Allies.
 
An easier PoD is that the Venezula (SP?) goes hot and tenses up the Anglo-American relations. Despite having a treaty with Britain, Japan could easily change sides if things go wrong for the Royal Navy in some sort of alternate World War II with the USA. Thus you have your Japanese-American Alliance.

Of course there is the rather cliched Axis China.
 

NothingNow

Banned
Japan gets it ass handed to it by the USN in WW1, wherein this situation happens:
I've had an idea about this that might be ASB. In it the Japanese accidentally draw the US into ww1 in 1914 on the side of the central powers (A halucinating spotter + the "Yellow Peril"). So that it forces the UK to split the Home fleet in two or three parts (so as to deal with the USN and fill in for the Japanese.) Thus in TTL's Jutland, Germany has fairer odds of victory, so no real chance of an ambush / resulting panic thus possible German decisive Victory at ATL-Jutland. Now, what are they going to do with it?

In OTL the US had 10 Dreadnoughts in service in 1914 ( South Carolina, Michigan, Delaware, North Dakota, Florida, Utah, Wyoming, Arkansas, New York and Texas)+ 2 under construction for Argentina (Rivadavia & Moreno). Japan had Two Settsu class semi-dreadnoughts, two Kongo-class Battlecruisers, two Tsukuba-class and two Ibuki-class. Kongo and Hiei are the only Japanese capital ships that pose a threat to the USN.

And The Central Powers win throughly and without dispute, because the entante navies cannot be where they need to be so you end up with stuff like the inability of the RN to move convoys through the Indian ocean without the USN trying to sink them and succeeding.
ITTL's WW2 japan is a US vassal fighting the Russian and French Revanchists.
 
As usual this has been tried before. Ed Stalker posted it here https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=107514 and I shamelessly copied it to another board http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=146190&p=1267457#p1267457. It is quite hard. The obvious way is to strengthen the economic links between Japan and the USA, which were already quite strong as Japan was the third largest market for US goods pre-WW2 after the UK and Canada. Perhaps the easiest way would be if FDR had wanted better relations with Japan in the 1933-7 period because his family background had involved him in exports to Japan rather than China missionaries. Even so, Japan was quite resistant to foreign control of Japanese companies both pre- and post-WW2.
 

Markus

Banned
How would this be possible? What effects will it have on the war? Long term effects? Short term? Is this ASB?

Your opinions, good people of AH.com.


Let´s see: FDR considered Stalin a trustworthy partner and saw de Gaulle as a would be military dictator and he almost bend over backwards to avoid war with Japan to be able to concentrate on making war on Germany. Butterflying the war away does not take much. Let´s see how this can be turned into an alliance.

POD is 1914: This time the Japanese honur their alliance with France and Britain. They send a powerful fleet into the Med, an Expeditionary Force too and supply arms for a price that covers the cost.

1919: Japanese relations with France and the British are much better than in OTL. Even the Americans begin to have doubts about Japan as an enemy. They rate this "possible but not probable".

1930: By this time anti-Japanese laws have turned the US-Japanese relations sour but Japan is still on good terms with the French and Brits.

1932: In light of the foreign relations backslash following the invasion of Manchuria, the extreme Right and the Kwantung Army are reigned in.

1936: Japan signs(and fully respects) the 2nd London Naval Treaty. Note: The Mandates are neither fortified nor closed off to foreigners.

1938: The USA considers Germany by far the No.1 threat to peace. The likelyhood of war with Japan is rated down to "theoretically possible".

1939: WW2 breaks out, Japan chooses pro-allied neutrality

1940: France falls, after the victorious BoB Japan offers the UK its assistance. The IJN takes over trade protection in SEA and the IO in exchange for a trade deal offering better acess to the British Empires markets.

1941: German-Japanese relations are getting tense as losses of Japanese merchant ships to german subs rise. German in return is POed by the loss of two raiders to IJA cruisers.
 
No American Western Pacific

If the USA didn't have the Phillipines and vicinity, one natural flashpoint between them is elimnated. Now, have Spain sell them to Japan when the Spanis American war is coming. Perhaps they accept how dilapidated their fleet there is, and expect that the USN will make a try for them-and there's nothing they can do about it. So less tensions, since the US doesn't need a major military presence there.
 

burmafrd

Banned
Even if you remove the Phillipines the Pro China lobby in the US was quite strong. As long as the Japanese are in China its a problem. If the US puts its pacific fleet in Hawaii the IJN will consider its removal critical. NOW if the Fleet stays in San Diego, then its a possibility that the IJN are willing to take the risk of leaving it alone and attack everyone else.
 
(In the few minutes I have left here at the library computer)

I'll use the Russo-Japanese war peace negotiations as the point of divergence. The european powers are concerned about both the Japanese defeat of a European power and the American attempt to broker a peace. This is Europe's business, not the USA's. The big powers, France, Germany, the UK, and maybe Austria-Hungary, bring out their own peace settlement, which favors Russia even more than the American-brokered one. This gets the Japanese angry and the Americans very annoyed. And gives Japan and the USA a reason for thinking they may have common interests in the Pacific.

Looking further in the timeline. The USA does come to Japan's aid after the great earthquake. A year later, a great quake strikes southern California, and Japan comes to the USA's aid.

and now I'm logging off.
 
A while ago I saw the beginnings of a TL that had a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War and had Japanese-American cooperation after the war. I don't know what happened to it, but it looked like it satisfied the OP's conditions. I think its name was "For Want of a Mine" or something like that.
 
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