Challenge: Japan doesn't abandon Gun Manufacturing in the 1600s

I read somewhere that Japan became the primary gun manufacturer in the world surpassing even Europe after the Portuguese introduced the Arquebus to Japan in the 1500. Japanese warfare and tactics began to adapt gun powder warfare we were to look at the tactics used by the Japanese during their invasion of Korea, The general tactic adopted by the invaders was to fire musket volleys first, then advance, and fire more volleys before engaging in hand-to-hand combat. Spear units operated with archery and gun units provided defense. Loaders and shooters worked as a team and shooters were assigned three guns.
So what would it take for the Japanese to continue the manufacturing of guns instead of abandoning it for more traditional weapons? How would it play out in history?
 
I read somewhere that Japan became the primary gun manufacturer in the world surpassing even Europe after the Portuguese introduced the Arquebus to Japan in the 1500. Japanese warfare and tactics began to adapt gun powder warfare we were to look at the tactics used by the Japanese during their invasion of Korea, The general tactic adopted by the invaders was to fire musket volleys first, then advance, and fire more volleys before engaging in hand-to-hand combat. Spear units operated with archery and gun units provided defense. Loaders and shooters worked as a team and shooters were assigned three guns.
So what would it take for the Japanese to continue the manufacturing of guns instead of abandoning it for more traditional weapons? How would it play out in history?

The Japanese never did actually abandon the manufacture of guns. The forces which confronted Commodore Perry when he arrived in Japan were armed with guns...both matchlock muskets and cannon. The problem with Japan is that technology was allowed to stagnate, while the rest of the world advanced. Japan never developed their own equivalent of the flintlock, much less percussion firing systems. Japanese cannon were crude, almost medieval in construction. And they didn't have nearly enough of them.

Basically, in order for military technology to keep advancing without a conscious decision on the part of the Shogunate to invest the resources which it would take to do that, you pretty much have to reintroduce warfare into Japan, or maybe have an abortive attempt by some European power in the 17th century to invade and take over the islands. Since Japan was at peace, and did not feel threatened by outsiders, the Shogunate did not invest resources in weapons development. The "what we have now works fine" syndrome took over. And unless you get rid of that, military tech is going to stagnate.
 
To achieve that you'd need to keep Japan more-or-less open to the outside world. There's no way an isolated Japan will keep up, much less keep its lead, in comparison to Europe. Simply put, you just can not get as much innovation and invention on three unified islands (even densely populated ones) as you can on an entire continent, even if that continent were not exploring the entire world.
 
It would definetly take ongoing contact with the outside world for Japan to even consider the possibility of weapons research, and of course, a Japan open to the outside world is almost certanly an expansionist Japan. that means that korea atleast and possibly China and Mongolia as well would have to develop their armies in order to counter Japanese agression.
 
Basically, in order for military technology to keep advancing without a conscious decision on the part of the Shogunate to invest the resources which it would take to do that, you pretty much have to reintroduce warfare into Japan, or maybe have an abortive attempt by some European power in the 17th century to invade and take over the islands. Since Japan was at peace, and did not feel threatened by outsiders, the Shogunate did not invest resources in weapons development. The "what we have now works fine" syndrome took over. And unless you get rid of that, military tech is going to stagnate.
What about a prolonged Southern Ming/Northing Qing struggle in China? The post-Qing invasion Ming attempted to curry favor with merchants, smugglers, and pirates in southern China, and many of these Chinese seafarers ended up skirmishing with Qing naval forces all along the coastline and even further out into the Pacific. If Chinese fleets, either Qing or Ming, started skirmishing in the Sea of Japan or along the Japanese coastline, could that motivate Japanese military forces to keep up with the times and be properly armed to ward off Chinese adventurers?
 
How about a POD of between 1543-1614 between the time when the Tokugawa consolidated their power in Japan to reign in all the unrully feudal lords, and when Portuguese traders and missionries began arriving to Japan and the Christian missionaries started winning a significant number of converts among the warlords. These Feudal Lords known as "Outside Lords" were extremely antagonistic to Ieyasu, and the Outside Lords in TL also had a large number of Christian converts among them.
In TL the Tokugawa began persecuting the Christians in earnest, because it was strongly associated with the Outside Lords who were a real threat to the Tokugawa. In particular the Samurai class presented a particular threat to the Tokugawa especially the masterless Samurai. I think the Samurai is key to curtailing or eliminating the Tokugawa, by having a large number of them convert to Christianity and swearing allegiance to the new class of Christian lords.
These lords controlled a number of key ports who opened them up to the Portuguese in exchange for firearms, therefore an alliance between the newly Christian nobility, the Portuguese, and their subject population aswell as the Ronin could form a fifth column against both Togugawa.
In TL there was in fact quite a number of nobles who became attracted to Christianity.
Let's say the Jesuits were extremely successful in converting the aristrocracy and once the aristrocracy converts, the rest of the Japanese commoners would follow.
The newly Christianized Japanese lords starts awarding the Jesuits with consierable sway at the port of Nagazaki and others.
By 1600, close to a half a million Japanese from all classes have converted to Christianity.
In OTL 1616, Hidetada engaged in a merciless persecution of the newly Christian converts. 30,000 Christians made a final defense along with the Ronin. The Christian stronghold of Hara Castle where some Christians took refuge was bombarded by the Dutch by sea, while the shogun stormed the castle and massacred the defenders. By 1639 the Shogun had closed the country to outsiders.
Perhaps a Portuguese intervention to lifet the siege by sinking the Dutch ship could help save the Christian defenders, and the combined army of the Outside Lords can turn the tide against the Tokugawa and keeping Japan open to foreign trade.
This can have a long term effect on the development of firearms and other technological innovations in Japan.
The Chinese could then probably reverse its own isolationism by opening up to the West.
 
What about a prolonged Southern Ming/Northing Qing struggle in China? The post-Qing invasion Ming attempted to curry favor with merchants, smugglers, and pirates in southern China, and many of these Chinese seafarers ended up skirmishing with Qing naval forces all along the coastline and even further out into the Pacific. If Chinese fleets, either Qing or Ming, started skirmishing in the Sea of Japan or along the Japanese coastline, could that motivate Japanese military forces to keep up with the times and be properly armed to ward off Chinese adventurers?
IIRC, Japanese pirates were very, very active during the whole period after Sengoku, so they'd probably be the ones the Ming try to curry favor with.
 
IIRC, Japanese pirates were very, very active during the whole period after Sengoku, so they'd probably be the ones the Ming try to curry favor with.
I mean, the Ming did curry favor with Chinese (and some Japanese, in all likelihood) pirates and merchants. The capture of Fort Zeelandia wasn't pulled off by elderly court scholars, after all.
 
You pretty much need Industrial Revolution in Japan happening in sync with rest of the world to make is a POD. Assuming that Japanese weapon development continued in full swing in 17-19 centuries, they would meed Perry's men with "Brown Bess" and, if they are extremely lucky, Napoleonic vintage field pieces (those did require some pretty advanced technology). It wouldn't make any difference except, may be, short and painful (for Japanese) lesson in advantages of civilized arms. Difference between Springfield rifled musket and Brown Bess is greater than one between arquebus and Brown Bess.
 

Neil Craig

Banned
I agree with others that the Japanese keeping guns requires & makes inevitable that they keep open to the world. I once read that before they closed off a couple of Japanese ships had traded with the Spanish in South America. Seeing how effectively they developed technology after the Meiji restoration in 1860 & defeated Russia in 1906 I think they would have been technological competitors for any European power. If, rather than trying to conquer China (or perhaps in addition to if it had been done piecemeal the way Britain conquered India) they could have sought overseas trade & ultimately colonies. I am thinking of an analogue to the British Empire but without the need to maintain the balance of power in Europe that Britain had.

Such a Japanese Empire would have been likely to include Australia, New Zealand & some colonies, perhaps 13, from Alaska to Panama.
 
I agree with others that the Japanese keeping guns requires & makes inevitable that they keep open to the world. I once read that before they closed off a couple of Japanese ships had traded with the Spanish in South America. Seeing how effectively they developed technology after the Meiji restoration in 1860 & defeated Russia in 1906 I think they would have been technological competitors for any European power. If, rather than trying to conquer China (or perhaps in addition to if it had been done piecemeal the way Britain conquered India) they could have sought overseas trade & ultimately colonies. I am thinking of an analogue to the British Empire but without the need to maintain the balance of power in Europe that Britain had.

Such a Japanese Empire would have been likely to include Australia, New Zealand & some colonies, perhaps 13, from Alaska to Panama.
...Panama? The Spanish held Panama since the 1500s.
 
I agree with others that the Japanese keeping guns requires & makes inevitable that they keep open to the world. I once read that before they closed off a couple of Japanese ships had traded with the Spanish in South America.
AFAIK, one Japanese-built (but Spanish-designed) ship traded with Spanish Mexico in 1610-ies.

Seeing how effectively they developed technology after the Meiji restoration in 1860 & defeated Russia in 1906 I think they would have been technological competitors for any European power. If, rather than trying to conquer China (or perhaps in addition to if it had been done piecemeal the way Britain conquered India) they could have sought overseas trade & ultimately colonies. I am thinking of an analogue to the British Empire but without the need to maintain the balance of power in Europe that Britain had.

Such a Japanese Empire would have been likely to include Australia, New Zealand & some colonies, perhaps 13, from Alaska to Panama.
The Spanish would object. Before 19th century they were strong enough to fend almost all European invaders off their colonies; however, they were compelled to allow European competitors to trade with the Spanish American dominions. So, I think, your proposal
they could have sought overseas trade & ultimately colonies
could be limited in reality to the first part - at least, before the Napoleonic Wars (if these wars would happen in the ATL at all).
 
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