Challenge: Italian Libya

Nilats

Banned
Libya would be much easier to hold onto than Algeria. If Portugal can hold on until 1975, Italy could hold on for longer I think.
 
Libya has a very small population - it could easily be out-populated by Italian emmigrants and if control over the population centres is maintained then rebellion is nearly impossible.
 
That didn't really work out so well for France over the long term though.

Well big difference between Lybia and Algeria will be that italians make the majority of the population at least on the coastal zone. Mussolini (and the goverment before him) always envisioned Lybia as an outlet for excessive population so greatly encouraged the migration of people here...and after the pacification campaign there are a lot less arab there, lot less.
 
That didn't really work out so well for France over the long term though.

True, though Libya does have some advantages over Algeria. For a start the population is low (in 1939 not a lot over a million people) and there's large proportion of Italians in that number (about 12% overall, rising to a third in Tripoli and Benghazi). Assuming Italian neutrality in World War II Mussolini likely continues his ongoing policy of settling Italians in the coastal area, boosting that number (and possibly further boosting it when Italy loses its other colonies and the hundred thousand or so Italians there leave). Libya's proximity to Italy and the economic impact of the discovery of oil will make holding it very important to the (presumably still fascist) Italian government. Cracking down on those Arabs who have the temerity to demand independence won't be pretty, but I'd say Italy can at the least make a fair crack at hanging on to it.
 
Well big difference between Lybia and Algeria will be that italians make the majority of the population at least on the coastal zone. Mussolini (and the goverment before him) always envisioned Lybia as an outlet for excessive population so greatly encouraged the migration of people here...and after the pacification campaign there are a lot less arab there, lot less.

Fair enough I hadn't taken that into account. I wonder how much of an impact it would have on Italy.
 
Fair enough I hadn't taken that into account. I wonder how much of an impact it would have on Italy.

Soldi soldi soldi tanti soldi, beati sian i soldi perchè? Chi a tanti soldi vive come un pascià ed a piedi caldi se ne sta...viva i soldi

Money money money lot of money, blessed be the money because who has a lot of money live like a king...hurra for money

On a more seirous note, between the oil money and the war not passing trough Italy economically speaking we will be in a more prosperous position...meaning that Benny will remain unmolested in power till he die
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Stay neutral in WW1. Without WW1, the population of Italy will grow much faster, and if the excess is encourage to move to Italy, then Libya will become Italian over time. By the time of decolonialism, Libya will not be an issue since it will be majority Italian for at least a decade.
 
For it to work in the long run, Italian immigrants would have to flood the country and become 80 percent of the population by the end of World War Two. But the Italian leaders would have to become aware early on, like in the early 1920s, of the vast oil wealth--that would be the only incentive that would cause them to focus on this and allocate the vast financial and other resources necessary. Giving the limited oil drilling technology at the time, I'm not sure how they would develop such awareness of the region's potential.

Incorporating Libya into Italy permanently would mean deferring dreams of empire elsewhere, and not allying with Hitler in World War Two. But if Italy succeeded in building this greater Italy, it would be a co-equal of Britain, France and Germany in post-war Europe and might even rank number one in standard of living.

As to the Libyan Arabs and Berbers, Italy would have three choices: either extreme repression of incessant protests and uprisings, ethnic cleansing, or a policy of making sure, scrupulously, that the Arabs share equally in the oil wealth and other advantages of an industrial society. This would mean a policy that Arabs get good jobs, good education, and good homes, and do not become a servant class for European immigrants. Let the immigrants do their own cooking and clean their own homes, or bring in other Europeans to do this work for them.

The whole idea is pretty utopian. Certainly Mussolini would have been incapable of carrying it to success.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
For it to work in the long run, Italian immigrants would have to flood the country and become 80 percent of the population by the end of World War Two. But the Italian leaders would have to become aware early on, like in the early 1920s, of the vast oil wealth--that would be the only incentive that would cause them to focus on this and allocate the vast financial and other resources necessary. Giving the limited oil drilling technology at the time, I'm not sure how they would develop such awareness of the region's potential.

Incorporating Libya into Italy permanently would mean deferring dreams of empire elsewhere, and not allying with Hitler in World War Two. But if Italy succeeded in building this greater Italy, it would be a co-equal of Britain, France and Germany in post-war Europe and might even rank number one in standard of living.

As to the Libyan Arabs and Berbers, Italy would have three choices: either extreme repression of incessant protests and uprisings, ethnic cleansing, or a policy of making sure, scrupulously, that the Arabs share equally in the oil wealth and other advantages of an industrial society. This would mean a policy that Arabs get good jobs, good education, and good homes, and do not become a servant class for European immigrants. Let the immigrants do their own cooking and clean their own homes, or bring in other Europeans to do this work for them.

The whole idea is pretty utopian. Certainly Mussolini would have been incapable of carrying it to success.

If Italy stays out of WW1, then likely Hitler and Mussolini are butterflied away along with many other changes to the interwar period. And why do you say 80%? Why not a mere majority of 55% or so?
 
Libya has a very small population - it could easily be out-populated by Italian emmigrants and if control over the population centres is maintained then rebellion is nearly impossible.

No it couldn't. 1 million people in 1940 becomes 6 million Arabs by the 2000's. There was never that much assimilation of Arab muslims into European colonial culture either in French or Italian territories. Eventually Islam and pan arabism would mobilize resistance and this would make life uncomfortable for Italian settlers and they would start to leave.

Libya could only absorb so many Italians. The truth is that most Italians during the time frame would have preferred to go to the USA, Argentina, Brazil or France. There wouldn't be enough land and or enough economic activity to absorb many more Italians than were already there by 1940 without having a lower standard of living.
 
I have an Italian Libya in my timeline, unsure whether or not they'll last till present day, but as of now, Libya is almost entirely Italian by 1971. Arabs have almost entirely been "deported" to the Fezzan, where the Italian military is still in charge.
 
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