Challenge:Is That the best they could do-Italy

[FONT=&quot] Reprint alert: This was on my blog a few months ago.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]The Best They Could Do, Italy July 1940: Italy has joined World War II. Benny the Moose is no longer with us and you’re in charge of his ramshackle, poorly trained and equipped armed forces. Let’s assume that your goal is to get the corrupt and nasty Fascist regime through the war in as good a shape as possible. (not exactly a task most of us would want to take on for moral and many other reasons, but let’s assume that for some reason you want to do it).

Italy is in awful shape for a war. It lost about a third of its merchant marine as soon as it declared war because it didn’t give merchant ships enough time to get to home waters. Its reasonably modern navy doesn’t have enough fuel to operate its fuel-hungry battleships for more than a short time. After that it will be dependent on drips and drabs from fuel-starved Germany.

Italy has enough heavy industry to supply maybe 20 of its 90+ divisions with reasonably modern weapons, but is dependent on foreign supplies for much of the raw material to run those industries.

The Italian navy is reasonably modern, but the airforce is still trying to make the transition from a mid-1930s bi-plane based force to modern low-wing monoplanes. The modern fighter planes coming into service in the Italian airforce are hampered by bulky and underpowered engines, and are not really a match for modern British or German fighters. Italian artillery and infantry weapons are mostly old and not particularly well designed. Italian tanks were for the most part mid-1930s era tankettes armed with machineguns, though a few cannon-armed tanks were going into service. The Italians had too few trucks and radios to operate as a modern military force.

Like Japan, Italy didn’t have time on its side. It was at war with Britain. If the British survived the summer, by October the worsening weather conditions in the English Channel would make a German invasion impossible. When that happens, the British would be able to bring a portion of its considerably more modern army south to North Africa, and the Italians would be in trouble, as they were historically.

The Italian window of opportunity to do anything significant on their own was essentially from July to October or possibly November of 1940. After that the overwhelmingly superior equipment of the British would force the Italians to play second fiddle to the Germans in the theatres they considered their own.

Also, the Italian forces in Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somaliland were isolated and would wither on the vine unless the Italians were able to find a way to resupply them. That meant taking Egypt, which was probably beyond Italian capabilities under normal circumstances, though the extreme weakness of the British in July and August of 1940 made it somewhat more feasible.

British control of Malta was also a problem for the Italians. If Britain managed to build up Malta it could do a lot toward cutting the Italian armies in North Africa off from

Historically the Italian frittered away the summer and autumn months of 1940. Mussolini saw a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to grab territory, and prestige. He spread the already weak Italian war effort in a variety of ways, sending 170 planes to fight in the Battle of Britain, though they didn’t actually get there until October 1940. The planes didn’t have much impact in the Battle of Britain, but they might have made a difference in North Africa. Through the summer of 1940, the Italians concentrated over half of their supply efforts on getting ready for a late summer invasion of Yugoslavia that Hitler then vetoed. After the German veto of the Yugoslav invasion, the Italians actually demobilized 500,000 men.

The Italians also toyed with grabbing Corsica from Vichy France and wasted time and resources getting ready for that offensive (which they actually implemented in November 1942 in conjunction with the German occupation of Vichy France). Then in October, the Italians attacked Greece at the start of the rainy season, with less than half of the divisions the Italian army said they needed, and a few weeks notice rather than the three months they would have needed to build up adequate supplies.


Low Hanging Fruit: I’ve already talked about some of the no-brainer things the Italians could do, but here are a few others: (1) Deploy the reasonably advanced radar system that had been developed locally and then ignored. (2) No attack on Greece, at least not in October 1940. (3) Don’t send troops to fight against the Soviet Union or planes to fight in the Battle of Britain. The Italians were outclassed in both arenas, and had little impact while frittering away resources that could have been useful somewhere else. (4) License German aircraft engines earlier to make their planes competitive. (5) It might be useful for the Italians to try a reapproachment with the Soviet Union in the summer and fall of 1940 and the spring of 1941. The Soviets had been selling Italy oil for their navy until the Italians sent weapons to Finland during the Winter War. Stalin might have been open to an arrangement sending oil to Italy for industrial goods. The Soviets accounted for 37% of Italian oil in the mid-1930s. (6) Not declaring war on the US or the USSR might also be good ideas.
Those last few paragraphs point in some directions I would go to do better, but they probably aren’t enough to do much more than make Italian defeats a little less humiliating. So what would you do in that position?
 
Hmmm

Nobody jumping at the chance to play the Italians? I can understand that. I'll advance the ball a little. Probably the best chance the Italians had was to (a) Concentrate their forces on achievable objectives, and (b) Bluff a lot. They needed to maintain the perception that they were at least a reasonable military power rather than a pathetic joke. The key to that would be to concentrate their relatively modern equipment and higher quality manpower in maybe a dozen divisions while starving the rest. Italian industry was probably capable of supplying no more than about 20 divisions with something approaching modern equipment.

Unfortunately for them, there were really no achievable objectives within their reach during the period where they had relative freedom of action--essentially between July 1940 and October 1940. After October 1940, the British were no longer threatened by Sealion and could and did move modern equipment to North Africa, shifting the balance of power against the Italians. The Italians were probably not capable of taking Egypt in the summer of 1940, even given full concentration of their forces there. They suffered from the same logistics constraints that later stymied Rommel, though the British forces facing them were minimal.

Malta might be a logical objective, though I suspect that they would need German support to take that. The projected Italian invasion of Yugoslavia in August 1940 might have had interesting consequences. The Italians might have actually pulled it off, at least to some degree, though more because of Yugoslav disunity than because of Italian fighting prowess. They would probably do better than they did in Greece, both because of Yugoslav disunity and because they would have at least not be tossing unprepared troops into the mountains at the height of the fall rainy season against a numerically superior opponent like they did in their historic invasion of Greece. Of course going after Yugoslavia meant fighting on two fronts again, which they really needed to avoid given their slender resources.
 
Nobody jumping at the chance to play the Italians? I can understand that.

Hold your horses, kid. It's not that people is logged 24/7, you know?

The problem with your little scenario is that you haven't really left any possibility. Italy could have made lot of important choices, choices that could have changed radically the war or even butterflied it away, but they all belong to the pre-DOW time. With your POD it's like to be thrown into the sea and be told "sink or swim"...

Let's try to swim.

First: AOI is good as lost. The only thing that the local troops can do is to try to resist as long as possible. OTL they actually did. With the last flight, send Badoglio there. With a bit of luck he'll get himself killed or, at least, will become a POW. Anyway is out of your way for good.

Second: Forget any plan against France (why bother? germans are doing fine, let them do the job)

Third: When Prasca comes to you proposing an "easy campaign agaist Greece", throw him out of the window. Bonus points if he dies.

Fourth: Ship all the better equipment to Lybia, along as the best units. The logistic strain is going to be terrible, but, hopefully, it will be possible to overcome it albeit briefly. Put in charge some of the younger officers, fire the old ones, those who still thinks of a tank as a "useless toy".

Fifth: attack Egypt with everything you got, navy included. It's not that you're going to have a better hance than the late 1940, anyway.

The crux of the whole scenario is here. You either succeded spectacularly or fail miserably, there is no alternative.

If you fail, have the army fall back to the border and dig in. The italians were good at defense and your objective is to have the british to sweat as much as possible trying to pass past you, while you wait for the german support, that, at this point, would be inevitable.

If you win and take the Suez channel, offer to the british a separate peace. Churchill (if he still in charge, of course) would never have accepted peace from Germany, but could have entertained the idea of getting rid of italians, for the right price, of course. So don't be greedy and offer good terms...

As for Malta... well the best choice would have been a surprise invasion in the eve of the declaration of war. Short of that, better to ignore her altogether.
 
Cornelius has it about hit on the head there.

1. All to a single front. None of OTL's ADHD strategy roulette. Once France falls as OTL stay out of BoB and the Balkans and Russia at all costs less than Nazi invasion of Italy. Put everything (land, sea, air) towards Libya-Egypt.

2. Navy sorties quickly with Sm.79 torpedo bomber assistance. Secure central Med to Libya as best as possible. Use X MAS (frogmen) to harass RN beyond this zone, but remember: the Libyan lifeline is ALL.

3. Isolate Malta. Don't waste time/forces trying to take it.

4. Defensive war in AOI. If all goes well enough early enough in Egypt you can barter it back at the table with UK.


If the Power of the Wank Be With You you could take or threaten Suez enough to get Britain to the table and bugger out of that Axis mess as soon as possible. Even Churchill (assuming the mess in Egypt doesn't topple the gov't for Halifax) should be amenable to a separate peace.

You've pissed off Hitler, but oh well. He needs you for sea trade anyway now and will be so dead set on the USSR you can sit back and watch the show.


If the Wank is Not With You you face nothing much worse than OTL against Britain + USA (perhaps) and may have escaped war with the USSR.
 
Entering the war was the screwup

Hold your horses, kid. It's not that people is logged 24/7, you know?

You mean people (gasp) have lives?:)

Yeah, part of point of this was to illustrate the extent to which entering the war screwed over Italy. It would have only not been a bad idea if (a) England folded--not likely given their historical stands against Napoleon, etc., or (b) Italy had entered as part of a concerted effort on the part of several players to partition the British empire in the summer of 1940. Italy alone coming in on the German side meant that Italy got screwed. Italy, Spain, Japan, the Soviets, and maybe even the Turks all trying to grab places the British needed to defend, along maybe with an Iraqi revolt in the summer of 1940 and maybe even an earlier and more violent "Quit India" campaign--now that might have worked.

As to a better Italian offensive in North Africa: Yeah, that would be their best shot at doing anything on their own. The big problem would be the logistics. As the Germans found, there was a limit to the distance that fuel could reasonably be trucked across the desert. On the other hand, British forces were weak in the summer of 1940 and I suppose that if the Italians were able to establish naval dominance in the eastern Mediterranean they might be able to overcome that by taking ports further east and shipping there, but that assumes that there were ports with the capacity to support a continued offensive far enough east.
 
You mean people (gasp) have lives?:)

At least as much of a life as my job/family/house allows. :p

Yeah, part of point of this was to illustrate the extent to which entering the war screwed over Italy. It would have only not been a bad idea if (a) England folded--not likely given their historical stands against Napoleon, etc., or (b) Italy had entered as part of a concerted effort on the part of several players to partition the British empire in the summer of 1940. Italy alone coming in on the German side meant that Italy got screwed. Italy, Spain, Japan, the Soviets, and maybe even the Turks all trying to grab places the British needed to defend, along maybe with an Iraqi revolt in the summer of 1940 and maybe even an earlier and more violent "Quit India" campaign--now that might have worked.

Now thats a whole different ball game, and a potential bitch of a dystopic TL. :eek:

As to a better Italian offensive in North Africa: Yeah, that would be their best shot at doing anything on their own. The big problem would be the logistics. As the Germans found, there was a limit to the distance that fuel could reasonably be trucked across the desert. On the other hand, British forces were weak in the summer of 1940 and I suppose that if the Italians were able to establish naval dominance in the eastern Mediterranean they might be able to overcome that by taking ports further east and shipping there, but that assumes that there were ports with the capacity to support a continued offensive far enough east.

Never suggested it'd be easy, or even very plausible. Still needs Wankzilla on your side. Plus the UK commanders will have to make the Malaya campaign look like a Brit Cannae.

If we can assume Balbo's death is butterflied he might be capable of organizing the logistics and strategic effort well enough. Organization and bold/brave/ballsy/borderline-reckless strategy were his fortes. Assuming he doesn't get himself killed adventuring at the front and concentrates on flying about the war zones organizing logistics drops and convoys, he has the possibility or organizing an effective offensive...assuming he's given the full support of Rome and all available resources (politically questionable).

Still entering a long-range gunfight with a knife here. Your only hope is to run in fast and hope they miss every shot until you get to their throat.
 
[FONT=&quot] Reprint alert: This was on my blog a few months ago.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]

The Best They Could Do, Italy July 1940: Italy has joined World War II. Benny the Moose is no longer with us and you’re in charge of his ramshackle, poorly trained and equipped armed forces. Let’s assume that your goal is to get the corrupt and nasty Fascist regime through the war in as good a shape as possible. (not exactly a task most of us would want to take on for moral and many other reasons, but let’s assume that for some reason you want to do it).

Italy is in awful shape for a war. It lost about a third of its merchant marine as soon as it declared war because it didn’t give merchant ships enough time to get to home waters. Its reasonably modern navy doesn’t have enough fuel to operate its fuel-hungry battleships for more than a short time. After that it will be dependent on drips and drabs from fuel-starved Germany.

Italy has enough heavy industry to supply maybe 20 of its 90+ divisions with reasonably modern weapons, but is dependent on foreign supplies for much of the raw material to run those industries.

The Italian navy is reasonably modern, but the airforce is still trying to make the transition from a mid-1930s bi-plane based force to modern low-wing monoplanes. The modern fighter planes coming into service in the Italian airforce are hampered by bulky and underpowered engines, and are not really a match for modern British or German fighters. Italian artillery and infantry weapons are mostly old and not particularly well designed. Italian tanks were for the most part mid-1930s era tankettes armed with machineguns, though a few cannon-armed tanks were going into service. The Italians had too few trucks and radios to operate as a modern military force.

Like Japan, Italy didn’t have time on its side. It was at war with Britain. If the British survived the summer, by October the worsening weather conditions in the English Channel would make a German invasion impossible. When that happens, the British would be able to bring a portion of its considerably more modern army south to North Africa, and the Italians would be in trouble, as they were historically.

The Italian window of opportunity to do anything significant on their own was essentially from July to October or possibly November of 1940. After that the overwhelmingly superior equipment of the British would force the Italians to play second fiddle to the Germans in the theatres they considered their own.

Also, the Italian forces in Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somaliland were isolated and would wither on the vine unless the Italians were able to find a way to resupply them. That meant taking Egypt, which was probably beyond Italian capabilities under normal circumstances, though the extreme weakness of the British in July and August of 1940 made it somewhat more feasible.

British control of Malta was also a problem for the Italians. If Britain managed to build up Malta it could do a lot toward cutting the Italian armies in North Africa off from

Historically the Italian frittered away the summer and autumn months of 1940. Mussolini saw a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to grab territory, and prestige. He spread the already weak Italian war effort in a variety of ways, sending 170 planes to fight in the Battle of Britain, though they didn’t actually get there until October 1940. The planes didn’t have much impact in the Battle of Britain, but they might have made a difference in North Africa. Through the summer of 1940, the Italians concentrated over half of their supply efforts on getting ready for a late summer invasion of Yugoslavia that Hitler then vetoed. After the German veto of the Yugoslav invasion, the Italians actually demobilized 500,000 men.

The Italians also toyed with grabbing Corsica from Vichy France and wasted time and resources getting ready for that offensive (which they actually implemented in November 1942 in conjunction with the German occupation of Vichy France). Then in October, the Italians attacked Greece at the start of the rainy season, with less than half of the divisions the Italian army said they needed, and a few weeks notice rather than the three months they would have needed to build up adequate supplies.


Low Hanging Fruit: I’ve already talked about some of the no-brainer things the Italians could do, but here are a few others: (1) Deploy the reasonably advanced radar system that had been developed locally and then ignored. (2) No attack on Greece, at least not in October 1940. (3) Don’t send troops to fight against the Soviet Union or planes to fight in the Battle of Britain. The Italians were outclassed in both arenas, and had little impact while frittering away resources that could have been useful somewhere else. (4) License German aircraft engines earlier to make their planes competitive. (5) It might be useful for the Italians to try a reapproachment with the Soviet Union in the summer and fall of 1940 and the spring of 1941. The Soviets had been selling Italy oil for their navy until the Italians sent weapons to Finland during the Winter War. Stalin might have been open to an arrangement sending oil to Italy for industrial goods. The Soviets accounted for 37% of Italian oil in the mid-1930s. (6) Not declaring war on the US or the USSR might also be good ideas.
Those last few paragraphs point in some directions I would go to do better, but they probably aren’t enough to do much more than make Italian defeats a little less humiliating. So what would you do in that position?
I suspect that the best thing Italy can do at this point is to be a functional neutral. Make lots of pro-German noises, but not actually do anything. Sit and wait, see how the war goes. If it goes, Hitler's way, then send several divisions to help finish off Russia. If it goes the Allies' way (as it will) then switch sides in a planned manner, help the allies land north of Rome, say, so that most of the country doesn't become a shelled battlefield.

Trying to do more than token fighting at this point is likely useless. IMO.
 
You mean people (gasp) have lives?:)

Well, I used to have one. Before job started to kill me slowly :(. I read your post yesterday evening, but I was too tired to write an answer.

Entering WW2 was without doubt one of Mussolini's dumbest ideas ever. But you should also remember (and allow me the jab, a lot of people on this site should too) that with hindsight benefit, it's easy to tell good choices from bad ones. In the 1940 spring Germany seemed the clear winner.

With the right PODs, Italy could have easily become much more dangerous than OTL. Better infrastructures in Lybia, concentrating on quality rather than quantity for equipment, never let propaganda blind you to the army's problems and so on so forth. Thanks God this never happened, I find the idea of what an italian army on par with the german one could have achieved frankily chilling.

Question is, would Hitler let Italy get out of war? Or would even other Fascist comrades?

Good question.
The fascist comrades are not an issue. Mussolini held the party with an iron grip until the defeats mined his reputations. After him, the strongest faction is the Balbo/Ciano one, antigermanic and pro-british...
Hitler is going to be really pissed, but he has not many choices. Attacking Italy means to gift the british with a new ally and a new european front, something thet he must to avoid in order to attack Russia.
Hitler could denouce the alliance with Italy, but that wouldn't bring him any benefit.
Besides all the italians have to do is point out that the didn't have any choice on the matter. The egyptian campaign, even if victoriuos, should have largely demonstrated how the italian equipment and doctrines were outdated. So Italy had to accept peace in order to correct this problems...
 

Markus

Banned
Hmm, what could I do :confused:

Task nummero una is taking Malta. Right after the Italian DoW it was rather weekly defended, it particularly lacked air power. Throw everything at the damn place to make sure it falls.

Task numero due is staying on the defensive in NA and not deploying the bulk of the troops at the broder, better send the non-mobile units that are the majority to the various ports and keep a mobile force in reserve.

Task numero tre is extending peace feelers to the UK. "SRY, it was all Benny´s fault. Can we return to the status quo ante: I get my colonies back, you your´s? ... Just Eritrea and Somalia is ok but I also want my merchant ships back. By the way, you can always lease ships from neutral powers, deal?"
 

Cook

Banned
Without Mussolini?
Has he got Italy into the war and then died?

Because I don’t see anyone else being stupid enough to get Italy involved in the war to begin with. Certainly Count Ciano, Mussolini’s Son-in-law and foreign Minister was totally against it, as were a lot of the Fascist Council.

Italy was woefully equipped for war in 1940 and it’s economy was a shambles.

Its best option was to play the same hand that Turkey and Spain did, make the appropriate friendly sounds to both sides but actually promise nothing.

Drilling for oil in Italian occupied Lybia wouldn't hurt either.

 
Without Mussolini?
Has he got Italy into the war and then died?
If I am reading the OP correctly - Yes-

I am in Charge -:cool::)

I have my Diplomats in Madrid walk over to the British embassy, Blame everything on Benny, Ask for a Cease Fire, & tell the British that Italy is withdrawing from the war.
Hopefully Churchill will agree to negotiations, especially if I hint about a possible side switching.
 
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