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Hi all, this is an open timeline. I’m working on an alternative timeline on a limited and protracted conventional and tactical-nuclear war in Europe in late 1984-beginning of 1985. In two months, the war will escalate at a global level. But, during those first 60 days of war, both superpowers has a unique chance to develop and deploy their own anti-ballistic missile (ABM) shields in order to strike the main enemy and minimize the losses of its own population.

All the diplomatic, political and economical limitations of peacetime are thrown away. Both superpowers have at their disposal all budget, industries and workforce they needed. There is no more democratic control in Us (and never has been in Ussr), then you can deploy everything, everywhere, in any time, without internal opposition. But you have very short time and you have to rely solely on existent and already tested technologies. Or try to develop a “silver bullet” (with the same effect of the A-bomb in 1945…)

These are the technologies already tested and deployed in late 1984.

Usa:

Spartan missile: a long range ground-to-space missile, designed to intercept ballistic missile out of the atmosphere. Spartan was armed with a very powerful 5 Mt nuclear warhead, with a higher X-ray yield (in order to destroy or incapacitate many incoming warheads in just one shot). Nearly 50 were built in the early 70s. Production was halted because of ABM Treaty. But could resume in case of war. While this is the most powerful ABM weapon ever built, it could produce some unpleasant collateral effect. Like the EMP effect on a wide area, caused by high altitude nuclear blasts. If you want to use them, you have to pay very attention to the locations of their deployment.

Sprint missile: a short range ground-to-air missile, designed to intercept reentry vehicles inside the atmosphere (at an altitude of 20-30 km from the ground). They were armed with a 1 kt neutron nuclear warhead, designed to destroy enemy incoming warheads while minimizing the damages on the ground. This is a very affordable and reliable weapon (a real miracle in avionics, with its 0 to Mach 10 in few seconds!), but also the last possible line of defense. You can’t rely only on them, especially if you could be overwhelmed by hundreds, even thousands of enemy warheads. Nearly 150-160 Sprint missiles were built in the early 70s. Production was halted because of ABM Treaty. But could resume in case of war.

Nike Hercules (nuclear) missile: all the Nike Hercules anti-aircraft batteries were retired before 1984, but they could even be resumed in case of emergency. Nike Hercules are basically anti-aircraft missiles. They are too slow to intercept an incoming Icbm warhead. But they could be armed with a very powerful 20 kt nuclear warhead. And in 1960 a Nike Hercules intercepted and destroyed a Corporal tactical ballistic missile with just a conventional warhead. The combination of this primitive ABM capacity and a powerful nuclear warhead, could transform the Nike Hercules in a last-resort weapon for an improvised ABM shield. Even if a 20 kt blast could provoke horrendous collateral effects on the ground (especially in case of defense of urban areas).
Par and Msr radars: the two main tracking and pointing systems for Spartan and Sprint missiles were long range Par radars (for spotting and tracking) and short/medium range Msr (for tracking and guiding the missiles on target). Both systems were linked and integrated, useful for both Spartan and Sprint missiles.

Ussr:

Galosh missile: a medium range ground-to-space missile able to intercept incoming warheads out of the atmosphere. Galosh was armed with a powerful nuclear warhead of 3 megatons, in order to destroy many enemy warheads in just one shot. Collateral damages could consist in EMP effect on a wide area. In the end of 1984, Galosh was already considered a dated system, but it was still deployed in large numbers in the ABM sites around Moscow

Gorgon missile: this was the Soviet equivalent of the Us Spartan missile: a long range ground-to-space missile able to intercept incoming warheads out of the atmosphere. It had a 1 Mt warhead: this missile was less powerful than the Galosh, but much more accurate. In 1984 this weapon was really new and rare (32 missiles were built). In case of war, its production could be boosted

Gazelle missile: this was the Soviet equivalent of the Us Sprint missile: a short range ground-to-air missile able to intercept incoming warheads at a 20-30 km altitude. It was armed with a low-yield nuclear warhead of 10 kt. In late 1984, nearly 60 Gazelle were built and deployed around Moscow. Production and deployment could be boosted in case of war, in order to deploy even 500 of them (Cia estimate)

Technologies already available, but not yet deployed in late 1984

Usa:

Kinetic Kill Vehicle: The first successful intercept with a Kinetic Kill Vehicle (a projectile without explosive which can destroy the target only with the kinetic energy produced by the speed of the impact) was achieved in June 1984 with an experimental vehicle, the Homing Overlay Experiment, mounted on the third stage of a Minuteman I missile. Thanks to its infrared sensor, the Homing Overlay Experiment was able to track an incoming warhead 1600 km away, target it and hit it. So, there were no KKV at the time, but the technology already existed and was already tested. In case of war, Us can try to develop it, possibly using already available and reliable technologies (Minuteman missiles and warheads similar to Homing Overlay). It could be a very useful weapon for mid-course defense. But it requires a lot of resources.

Ussr:

Intercept System: this was the upgrade of a very old concept of an armed satellite. The first IS was tested in the 60s. A new program was suspended by Andropov in 1983, but it could be resumed in case of war. Basically the IS was a satellite armed with pellets. It could release them against enemy satellites and/or missiles in the right moment, in their same orbit and in the opposite direction. The speed of rotation provide the kinetic effects of pellets, which could destroy or severely damage the enemy devices. It could be a very useful weapon for mid-course defense. But it requires a lot of wartime launches in space. Something that could be inevitably spotted by an enemy…

Technologies still under study in 1984

X-ray bomb (Project Excalibur): designed by Edward Teller, the father of H-bomb, the X-ray bomb is a “third generation nuclear weapon”. It could not produce a “sphere” of radiations, but X-rays pumped in the first nano-seconds of a nuclear blast. Each X-ray could be targeted on a separate missile, in order to disable or destroy it. This could be a very powerful weapon, aimed at destroying a huge number of enemy missiles and warheads in just one blast. In 1983 and 1984, two underground tests were conducted with uncertain results. Later in the 80s this project was terminated with no clear results. But, one could even think that you can see if it works or not only after tests in space. Which could not be conducted in peacetime. But in wartime... The Ussr also was studying X-ray lasers, with not clear results.

Chemical laser: powerful rays could be generated with chemical fuel. A first chemical laser, the MIRACL, was already tested (successfully) against fixed targets. Studies were already conducted to deploy a chemical laser in ground bases or in the space. But in 1984 this laser technology was still too primitive to be considered for a deployment in space. It could be deployed on the ground but only in very favorable conditions: high electric energy at your disposal, dry climate and clear sky. And just for short-range intercept, because an accurate pointing and tracking system for lasers was not yet created. The Ussr also had its own laser research, but no test were conducted before 1984.

Smart Rocks: you can arm a satellite with many Kinetic Kill Vehicles. If you can integrate this system with a tracking and targeting system, you have a perfect weapon floating above the Ussr and ready to intercept missiles in their boost phase. The technology of this system was already available in the early 80s. But it costs too much, it requires huge resources and was very indiscreet: many satellites above the Soviet heads could alarm them.

Railgun: this is a gin without powder, able to electrically accelerate a projectile even to Mach-10 speed. If a projectile could be targeted to an incoming warhead, then you have an economic Kinetic Kill Vehicle without the need of a missile booster. Both United States and Ussr designed and tested many kinds of railguns before the 80s with no clear results. The requested electrical energy is really impressive and you need a very large area to deploy the gun and its generators.

The “Christofilos Effect”: Nicholas Christofilos, a Greek-American physicist of the 50s and 60s, nicknamed the “Mad Greek” by his detractors, discovered a very useful thing for every kind of space war: you can create a radioactive shield exploding nuclear warheads at high altitude, especially if you do it near the Equator (because of the conformation of the “Van Allen Belts”, the magnetic field of Earth). A first test, operation Argus, was conducted in 1958 and confirmed the theory of Christofilos. An eventual high altitude nuclear test, the Starfish Prime, in 1962, demonstrated that just one 1 Mt explosion at high altitude, near the Equator, could disable 1/3 of all low orbit satellites in just one shot. It’s unclear if hundreds of powerful nuclear blasts at high altitude, always near the Equator, shot in the right moment, could disable even ICBMs in their boost phase, when they are more vulnerable, dependent on electronics and exposed to radiations. This could be an uncertain and desperate (even suicidal) tactic in case of global thermonuclear war…

This is an open timeline. If you were Reagan or Chernenko, what would you do to deploy an emergency ABM shield in just two months, with those technologies?
Ps: if you know other technologies, your suggestions are welcome!
Ps2: ASB are not permitted
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