Challenge: Helen Zille, President of South Africa

Germaniac

Donor
Your challenge, if you choose to accept it, is to create a TL where Helen Zille, the leader of the Democratic Alliance (the opposition to the ANC), become president of South Africa after the 2009 elections.

The Democratic Alliance has been gaining considerable support over the last few elections. While there is still a huge discrepancy in the number of votes, 11.6M to 2.9, the DA is a growing force of opposition to the monopoly the ANC has had over the assembly since the end of Apartheid. She has done a marvelous job in Cape Town, but Cape Town does not represent the whole of South Africa.

Perhaps a greater row which splits the ANC even more and the Congress of the People party takes a significant number of seats away, forming a coalition with the DA.
 
^ Zuma got elected because the ANC is virtually untouchable in Limpopo, Mpalunga, Northern Territory and the Free State. Zille as President after the 2009 elections would require a huge split inside the ANC, far bigger than the 2007-2008 battles, which were effectively Mbeki trying to help his people over Zuma's forces. Zuma's popularity is too strong to see Mbeki able to seriously split the ANC.

Best bet is to have the DA grow its influence among blacks post-1994, and bring inside the New National Party and perhaps the Inaktha Freedom Party, which would make them dominant in the Cape Provinces and have a fighting chance in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng. They gain control of the Western Cape in 1999, and get good results, thus allowing them to take the Eastern and Northern Cape in 2004. The Mbeki/Zuma split causes a number of prominent ministers to resign, and many of these go to an alliance of opposition parties headed by the DA, which includes the IFP, NNP, Congress of the People and Independent Democrats. The DA wins all three Cape provinces by a margin and ekes out narrow wins in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, and Zille wheels and deals to get a government formed of the many disparate parties, thus allowing the alliance to outnumber the ANC and thus take over the government. Helen would have to make a number of the other opposition leaders, particularly Buthelezi, Lekota and van Schalkwyk, prominent government members.
 
In such a TL COPE might be butterflied away, they were only formed in 2008. Ditto with the Independent Democrats (2003). It would certainly be possible if the ANC were to balkanize, which is possible (and will probably happen in the next ten years).
 
It is probably unlikely. During a very brief stay in South Africa I read copies of the Sowetan which is by no means an ANC mouthpiece but it was pointed out by one columnist that whenever certain people made critical points or even points opinion would go against them however valid the points were and the DA is regarded by many African as being a party that represent white peoples interests despite its leaders having been prominent opponents of apartheid.

The opposition parties are fragmented and have no common agenda. Inkatha has little support outside Natal and even here there is an element or coercion and is tainted by its alleged collabaration with apartheid. There is talk of the rift between Inkatha and the ANC being healed. Inkathas support fell in 2009 and Natal was the only place where the ANC gained support becuase Jacob Zuma is a Zulu.

The only effective opposition to the government appears to be coming from the two main trade union federations. COSATU having influence due to its relations with the ANC. The unions were highly critical of Mbeke over aids and actually stopped arms from being shipped to Mugabe. Collective bargaining offers a more sustainable way to raise living standards than coniscatory redistrubition that stops the wealth creation process.The rioting last year seems to have been directed against ANC corruption and nothing to do with the strikes that were disciplined

The main possibility for change is likely to be a split within the ANC between COSATU and that element backed by the better off members of the community i.e a division into class based politics. However I can't see the DA allying its self with the trade unions. It is however possible that the schism would put the DA in power maybe as a minority government for a short term whilst the ANC cleans its act up
 
Top