Challenge: Have Shu-Han come out as the winner in the Three Kingdoms Era

If you're unfamiliar with the Three Kingdoms Era, it is the period immediately after the fall of the Han Dynasty in which warlords contested for control of China. Eventually, around 210 AD, power coalesced in 3 major blocs, Wei in the northern core areas of China, Wu in the east and south-east (Basically modern Nanjing and Shanghai), and Shu in the south-west (modern Cheng Du and Chongqing).

Shu faced significant resource deficits throughout the conflict, but had a wealth of talented leaders, most notably Zhuge Liang. Unlike the other kingdoms, the founding ideology of Shu-Han was the reestablishment of the preceding Han Dynasty, under the rule of Liu Bei and his descendants.

So the challenge is to create a POD, no earlier than 184, that has Shu-Han achieving at worst being the dominant power in China by 300 AD.
 
If you're unfamiliar with the Three Kingdoms Era, it is the period immediately after the fall of the Han Dynasty in which warlords contested for control of China. Eventually, around 210 AD, power coalesced in 3 major blocs, Wei in the northern core areas of China, Wu in the east and south-east (Basically modern Nanjing and Shanghai), and Shu in the south-west (modern Cheng Du and Chongqing).

Shu faced significant resource deficits throughout the conflict, but had a wealth of talented leaders, most notably Zhuge Liang. Unlike the other kingdoms, the founding ideology of Shu-Han was the reestablishment of the preceding Han Dynasty, under the rule of Liu Bei and his descendants.

So the challenge is to create a POD, no earlier than 184, that has Shu-Han achieving at worst being the dominant power in China by 300 AD.


Simple have, Zhang liang die, Sun CE never rises to prominenceand Cao Cao dies.... Then have Zhuge Liang accept the leadership position of Shu Han at Lou Bei death, Zhuge would then lead a lightning campaign, have Cao Wei die as well, then do everything you can to butterfly away that thron called Sima Yi, so Zhuge arguably the best strategist in China a the time is Emperor of Shu Han and while civil war reigns throughout Wu and Wei he will launch his lightning campaigns in a similiar way to his OTL southern expedition, and due to his strategic prowess triumph over the other two kingdoms, this is only possible if these guys I listed are killed off and Civil war racks wu and Wei.... Otherwise shu Han is screwed....:);)
 
Simple have, Zhang liang die, Sun CE never rises to prominenceand Cao Cao dies.... Then have Zhuge Liang accept the leadership position of Shu Han at Lou Bei death, Zhuge would then lead a lightning campaign, have Cao Wei die as well, then do everything you can to butterfly away that thron called Sima Yi, so Zhuge arguably the best strategist in China a the time is Emperor of Shu Han and while civil war reigns throughout Wu and Wei he will launch his lightning campaigns in a similiar way to his OTL southern expedition, and due to his strategic prowess triumph over the other two kingdoms, this is only possible if these guys I listed are killed off and Civil war racks wu and Wei.... Otherwise shu Han is screwed....:);)

lol wut

I forgot to mention "no bats"

Realistically, I think the most plausible POD is anybody other than Guan Yu being in control of Jing in 220; Guan Yu made a lot of errors in that campaign (mostly being a dick to Sun Quan when he should have known Sun Quan might come after him).
 
This may be old. But a good POD could be having Pang Tong survive the siege of Luocheng and having Zhuge Liang stay in Jing to keep an eye on Guan Yu. Wiht both still alive it could save Guan Yu from death and stop Liu Bei from sending his men to death at Yi Ling.
 

PhilippeO

Banned
Can Shu-Han actually do this ?

Having Guan Yu survive and control former Liu Biao (Jing Zhou?) area might help Shu-Han survive longer

But to become winner is very difficult

each time China separate, the next unifying dynasty usually come from North

is there any dynasty from Yangtze riverbed that managed to unify China ? the only one i know are Kuomintang. Jin, Sui, Tang all have powerbase in North.

North China Plain give enormous advantage to those who control it.
 
Can Shu-Han actually do this ?

Having Guan Yu survive and control former Liu Biao (Jing Zhou?) area might help Shu-Han survive longer

But to become winner is very difficult

each time China separate, the next unifying dynasty usually come from North

is there any dynasty from Yangtze riverbed that managed to unify China ? the only one i know are Kuomintang. Jin, Sui, Tang all have powerbase in North.

North China Plain give enormous advantage to those who control it.
Come now did Shu Han not have the brilliant general Zhuge Liang. Shu Han was in an okay position to defeat WU and Wei but the generals and kings of wu and wei were monsters. For excample you had warlords like Cao Cao and Sun Quan with generals like sima yi. Maybe if the battle of the Whuzang plains ends in a decisive Shu Han victory and Zhuge Liang doesnt fall ill then Shu han has a chance at victory. What will prove descisive is if Sun Quan's forces crush the Wei emperor Cao Rui and his armies on the huai river. With Cao Rui slain on the battlefield Im sure Wei would fall into chaos. Next with Sima Yi dead(killed in whuzong) Zhuge Liang can continue his northern expedition with far greater sucess. So like before Shu Han and Wei coordinate another plan against Wei. Wu which has far greatear military would draw out the Wei forces while Zhuge continues his expedition with Shu han troops. Remember Cao Rui son is I believe two years old so in reality their is no capable regent to rule for him. With Sima Yi gone and the crushing defeats by Han and Wu forces im sure that the morale of Wei soldiers will be crushed. Zhuge Liang should then sieze the city of Chang'in while WU captures the city Xiangyang. Facing two pronged attack from both WU and Han armies as well as a breakdown of Wei morale Both Shu Han and WU can crush Wei partitioning it beetween the two(otl both agreed to do a joint offensive on Wei). Throughout this camapaign see to it that right before Wei capitulation Sun Quan and much of the general staff of Wu fall on the battlefield. By 245 Wei would cease to exist due to Shu and WU forces but it would be WU which bears the brunt of the damage caused by Wei while Shu doesn't suffer so many casualties . Then what should happen is that because WU supplied most of its armies it would be exhausted and without competent generals have WU become like OTL Shu Han taken control of by enunches and dramatic rise in corruption and decadence. With the WU state in chaos the Shu han forces should betray their former allies and invade the WU territory aka a classic stab in the back using the might of their northern territories. With superior generals better equipment and better soldiers WU would fall most likely by 265-270. With WU destroyed Shu Han emerges on top as the winner albeit greatly weakened but in the process capturing most of china. From here I have no clue how events will play out.

What do you think?
 

scholar

Banned
I color myself a reasonably informed individual of this time frame. If any of you traverse forums that have Three Kingdoms history being prominent you may know me. My first area of concern is whether or not you are using the novel as your primary source... Proper sources on the subject can be found here. ;)

For instance, in 210 A.D. Liu Bei was grabbing and solidifying his control over Jing province, not being established in Cheng Du.

Now for establishing Shu-Han as the dominant Empire and getting them to restore the Han requires a POD, roughly, around the time Liu Bei captured Han Zhong but was still completely in control Jing. Simply have Cao Cao's defenses crumble in Jing, not impossible given Guan Yu's advance (though there is doubt on how much he did). Sun Quan after having failed in his assault on Cao Cao will attack west. Just have this attack fail and get discovered. Liu Bei posts more troops inside Jingzhou. As Guan Yu captures northern Jing, Cao Cao moves the capital to Ye and dies shortly thereafter. With his death defenses in Liang and the central plains crumble. Liu Bei capitalizes on this. Xu Chang, Luo Yang, and Chang An are captured by Liu Bei within the next few years. Sun Quan's attacks on He Fei continue to fail leaving him relegated to a second rate power. Liu Bei declares himself King of Chang An as he divides Wei in two by capturing Qing and Xu. Then Sun Quan and Liu Bei split Huai. An attack north into Hei Bei would be difficult, but mirroring Yuan Shao's demise, the various generals and sons of Cao Cao mobilize against one another as no clear successor was given. As Liu Bei makes gains, Gongsun Gong switches allegiances to Liu Bei and attacks from the North sealing the Caos' fate. The Cao family surrenders in many places and takes up office, only the immediate and powerful are executed. Liu Xie is brought back to Luo Yang. Sun Quan is forced surrendering faced with overwhelming odds. Shi Xie also joins the Imperial court. Unlike OTL there are plenty of regional powers still in existence as the Han is once again restored. Sun Quan of the southeast will continue to hold the region at least until his family screws up with the court. Shi Xie will remain in control of Jiao. The Gongsun Family, while I cannot speak for Yuan, will most likely be able to remain loyal this time around due to China no longer being divided. Liu Bei then dies, a few years later than OTL, his descendants are Kings, the Princes, and finally rejoining the rest of distant Liu relatives as Marquis. The Han will not fall to the Wu Hu rebellions as China is not nearly as depopulated. The Han may last another two hundred years before falling, or this may set the precedent for Han's continued survival.
 

PhilippeO

Banned
> What do you think ?

Uh, my Romance of Three Kingdoms is a bit rusty

and its a novel, historicity is suspect and glorifying Shu-Han

and there are limit to brilliant, Sun Ce is very brilliant and successful general, but he didn't managed to unify China

control of North China Plain give very large advantage on food and manpower, and North China give the best cavalry so Wei have huge advantage.

and in history majority of unifier come from North

> Come now did Shu Han not have the brilliant general Zhuge Liang. Shu Han was in an okay position to defeat WU and Wei but the generals and kings of wu and wei were monsters. For excample you had warlords like Cao Cao and Sun Quan with generals like sima yi.

Cao Cao and Sun Quan are not monster, they are quite capable leader

and Wu and Wei also have a lot of capable Advisor and General

Sima Yi, Lu xun, Zhang Liao, and Jiang Wei for example
 
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