Challenge: Grossdeutschland

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to obtain a united German state based on the German Confederation by the present day with a POD no earlier than 1850. It should include not just the territory of the Bund but also Prussian lands outside it (Posen and Baltic Prussia), Schleswig, Alsace, and Heligoland.

You are free to make it as centralized or decentralized as you wish (provided it remains an actual country) and assign a dominant role to whichever German state you please. Given the POD limitations you can't use the Spring of Nations.
 

Susano

Banned
Hrr. And with 1850 we cant use the German Union (Erfurt Union) plans either - though theyd only work with Hungarys revolution successful, anyways, so meh.

And Hungary IS the problem. As long as it has Hungary, Austria will not be interested in any sort of German unfication even under their leadership...hm...

Okay, how about this:

German War, 1866 - an obvious timeframe for a PoD. The PoD is that Bismarck conviniently dies before the war is concluded (the man lived so unhealthy it oughta be possible that he gores himself to death on some feast or so...), and Prussia pushes for humiliating concessions from Austria - Saxony, Bohemia, Moravia annexed. However, due to this, opeace isnt concluded quickly enough, giving France time to intervene. Originally of course, Nappy-3 ha dplanned to intervene on Prussian side to save Prussia for the price of the Rhine border - now he intervenes to save Austria and gain the Rhine border in the process.

However, even with the German Confederation dead, this creates a wave of nationalist frenzy in Germany, and much public pressure on the German Monarchs - especially as ITTL, Prussia has annexed no entire state outright (this was a sort of compensation for Prussia not gaining Austrian etrritory, but entirely abolishing entire states was seen as unthinkable, normally). While just before fighting against each other, the German states (minus Austria an dminus Liechtenstein) now turn against France. The war is a bit more difficult for the united German troops than IOTL 1870/71, but in the end they manage to eject France and occupy the Alsace.

No German Empire is formed, but a German Union with the Prussian King as the "Presidium" (as IOTL in the North German Confederation). Austria is still outside it, but I guess that can change in a later war or so...
 

General Zod

Banned
Quite easy if you use the 1866 PoD.

The Austrian Empire suffers crushing defeats both at Sadowa and Custoza, its army falls into disarray, Hungary rises in open rebellion, Prussia and Italy advance in the collapsed Empire and partition it with Hungarian nationalists. France is distracted by its intervention in Mexico, Russia is busy suppressing a Polish revolt and is mollified with the cession of Austrian Poland and Galicia. In the face of the collapse of the Hapsburg, minor German states accept union in the German Empire under the leadership of Prussia.

France is distracted by its failing Mexican adventure, and is mollified by Bismarck with vague promises of compensation with Luxemburg and partition of Belgium. Indiscretions about these tentative deals are purposefully leaked by Bismarck to the international press in a form that paints them as aggressive French expansionism, angering the German public and Britain against France.

After a few years, France is goaded by Bismarck into attacking Germany over the issue of a Honezollern candidacy for the Spanish throne, but it is swiftly defeated by a Italo-German alliance, and forced to cede Alsace-Lorraine and Luxemburg to Germany, and Savoy, Nice, and Corsica to Italy.

The unification of the German Empire under Prussian leadership occurs according to the Großdeutschland solution, including the 1870 territories plus Austria, Bohemia, Moravia, Austrian Silesia, and Slovenia;

The unification of the Kingdom of Italy under Sardinia-Piedmont leadership occurs including the 1870 territories plus Trento (not necessarily Bozen), Gorizia-Gradisca, Istria, and Dalmatia;

An independent Kingdom of Hungary is established, which includes the 1919 territories plus Slovakia, Transylvania, and Croatia (minus Dalmatia);

the three states are allies and fight the WWI together;

Most likely these CPs win WWI.
 

Susano

Banned
After a few years, France is goaded by Bismarck into attacking Germany over the issue of a Honezollern candidacy for the Spanish throne
Argh, not again!

Anyways, so, Prussia conquering Austria in 1866, more or less? That seems... unlikely, given military and politcial realities and given what Bismarcks political motivations were.
 

General Zod

Banned
Argh, not again!

Anyways, so, Prussia conquering Austria in 1866, more or less? That seems... unlikely, given military and politcial realities and given what Bismarcks political motivations were.

Well, you can have France and Germany come to blows over the floundered cession of Luxemburg or partition of Belgium instead. I was just using the Spanish succession pretext for familiarity, but you can easily have Bismarck pull the same kind of clever "Ems Telegram" provocations over Luxemvburg or Belgium instead when he leaks details to the press. A Franco-German-Italian war in 1867-68 instead of 1870 really changes nothing, especially about the outcome.

You can distract Russia by having the second great Polish uprising occur a bit later or last a bit longer, and they can be mollified easily by cession of Austrian Poland and Galicia.

France is embroiled in the Mexican venture, possibly escalated into full military confrontation with the USA (or in my own TL, still reeling by defeat in the ACW), and can be temporarily mollified by promises of German support for French annexations in Luxemburg or Belgium.

As for Austria, they suffer a more crushing defeat at Sadowa, and by having the Italian commanders behave a little more cleverly, suffer another crushing defeat at Custoza, too. With severe defeats on both fronts, and most of the imperial Army destroyed, the Hungarian see the chances and rise again in revolt, quickly seizing control of the country. The Hapsburg Empire collapses, Franz Joseph abdicates, and Prussia and Italy occupy Vienna. Bismarck quickly concocts a deal, by which the Austrian half of the former empire (Austria, Bohemia, Moravia, and Slovenia) are set up as the Kingdom of Austria, with an Hapsburg on the throne, which joins the Prussian-dominated North German Federation. Or possibly Austria-Slovenia is made into a Grand Duchy, and Bohemia-Moravia into another Duchy. Or there is a partition, with Bavaria getting Austria and Slovenia, and Prussia getting Bohemia and Moravia. Prussia would get Austrian Silesia anyway. It is quite possible that with the Austrian Empire gone, Bavaria and the other Southern German states agree to enter the federation immediately (no other serious contender than Prussia is left for leadership in Germany, and any German patriot can see that unification of Greater Germany is quite at hand), so that the German Empire is proclaimed in Vienna in 1866.

Italy is given its claims of Trento (possibly minus Bozen), Trieste, Gorizia-Gradisca, Istria, and Dalmatia, so the alliance with Germany is made unshakable.

Hungary is set up as an independent Kingdom, with Slovakia, Transylvania, and Croatia (minus Dalmatia). Either another Hapsburg or a Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen is put on the throne.

Bismarck was a realist, but he was also quick to seize an opportunity, and not really clouded by romantic ideals of the divine rights of kings (except his own) nor religious prejudice. If he sees a good chance of accomplishing the unification of Germany according to the Großdeutschland model (which is quite feasible if the Hapsburg empire collapses, Hungary breaks away and Austria-Bohemia are easy pickings) instead of the Kleindeutschland model, he will leap for it. It only means more power and glory for Germany and Prussia both. He is quite capable of mollifying France and Russia to the deal for the few precious months he needs for setting up the new German Empire.

Afterwards, France can come, the Greater Germany-Italy combination will crush it even more surely than OTL.
 
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Susano

Banned
Well, you can have France and Germany come to blows over the floundered cession of Luxemburg or partition of Belgium instead. I was just using the Spanish succession pretext for familiarity, but you can easily have Bismarck pull the same kind of clever "Ems Telegram" provocations over Luxemvburg or Belgium instead when he leaks details to the press.
With "not again" I meant "Not again this debatte". Bismarkc didnt provoke anything - hed have to have precognient powers to see Napoleon III would declare a war over that. It wasnt worth a war, and Napoleon III was a bloody fool for starting one.

As for Austria, they suffer a more crushing defeat at Sadowa, and by having the Italian commanders behave a little more cleverly, suffer another crushing defeat at Custoza, too. With severe defeats on both fronts, and most of the imperial Army destroyed, the Hungarian see the chances and rise again in revolt, quickly seizing control of the country. The Hapsburg Empire collapses, Franz Joseph abdicates, and Prussia and Italy occupy Vienna.
That just wont happen. For one, France wont allow that - theyd rather give up Mexico then allow that to happen. And Austria simply wont fall apart this quickly anyways.
 

General Zod

Banned
With "not again" I meant "Not again this debatte". Bismarkc didnt provoke anything - hed have to have precognient powers to see Napoleon III would declare a war over that. It wasnt worth a war, and Napoleon III was a bloody fool for starting one.

OK about that.

That just wont happen. For one, France wont allow that - theyd rather give up Mexico then allow that to happen.

They would still have a substantial part of their Army embroiled into Mexico (also notice I'm assuming they may have come to blows with USA over Mexico). And Napoleon III was always one eager to seize prizes by diplomatic backroom dealing without fighting if he could. Bismarck can easily dangle Luxemburg and Belgium before his face as he did in OTL 1867, and even let him actually occupy them, that will just anger Britain and solidify German patriotism against France. Bismarck just needs a few months to set up the Empire and the Luxemburg-Belgium gambit will surely grant it. Afterwards, if France attacks, German patriotic sentiments fanned by the unification will sweep the country, Italy will be a loyal ally, it will be a march to Paris all over again.

And Austria simply wont fall apart this quickly anyways.

With most of the Army destroyed on the Prussian and Italian fronts, nothing to stop the occupation of Vienna, the Hungarians in open rebellion again, and the second even more crushing defeat of the Hapsburg in a few years ? The Empire is essentially dead.
 
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Tempted as well to pick something from 1866, but I'll go another route for the sake of scenario diversity.

POD: 1867, the Austro-Hungarian Compromise. Before the compromise is finalized word spreads of the agreement to share of power with only Hungary. Protests and riots break out in Prague as the populations along with the ethnic nobilities resent a power share granting equality with the Magyars but excluding the rest. Austrian troops are sent put down the riots in the Czech towns and specifically Prague. Resentment over their own exclusion and sympathy over the plight of the Czech brethren causes cities and towns located in the Slavic portions of the empire to join the gradually expanding protest of the compromise demanding a fair or equal part in any government compromise. Again troops that so recently faced defeat at the hands of the Prussian army are dispatched south to put down these riots as well only to act as wind on fire spreading the flames of bitterness even more. Likewise the Transylvania region with their Romanian ethnic groups greet the ending of their special status within the empire with disdain and jump at the chance to declare and demand either equal power sharing among the empires groups or independence. Again, Austria sends troops to the region to restore some order. Word arrives to Buda that Lajos Kossuth is returning to claim his seat in the new Diet.
Austrian troops have been sent to all the dark corners of the non-Austrian areas of the country and face hostile populations in every corner. As Austrian troops are dispatched for Transylvania and parts of the Galicia regions so close to home the newly restored Hungarian Diet takes action and sends hastily organized Hungarian forces as well. As they both arrive confusion over who is command of the situation becomes unclear. The Austrians claim command over the Hungarian forces while the Hungarians claim to be in charge due to the fact that Transylvania is now Hungarian territory and as equal partners demand Austrian troops leave. Tensions arise and the Austrian forces decide to follow orders and continue on their way the Transylvania and Galicia regions to put down the protests. Orders calling for caution and withdraw from Vienna come too late as the peoples see the intrusion as the Austrians failing to honor the compromise. Local resistances to the movement and finally to the presence of Austrian troops in Hungary force the Austrians to defend themselves and are forced to fire on local Hungarians at points. The Hungarian troops present in the areas begin to act without any official word from the Diet and arrest or detain all Austrian forces in Magyar lands. Communications between Vienna and Buda break down as both governments are faced with populations demanding actions against the other.
Slipping in along the Dalmatian coast Lajos Kossuth is able to enter the country. He makes his way to Buda just as the events are at a climax. Seeing the situation and knowing full well the Austrians are stretched from the recently lost Prussian war in addition to the still uncontained country wide revolts Kossuth enters the city to take his seat within the Diet proclaiming the time is right for a fully and independent Hungary with no chains to Austria. The Diet knowing that any decision to the contrary would result in their immediate ejection or quite possibly execution vote on the issue. Austria by sending troops into Hungary and for refusing to share command in the region had forfeited the Compromise agreement and broken the deal. Hungary therefore declared her full and complete independence from Austria and sends delegations to the nearby countries seeking only peace with all her neighbors.
What follows is an Austria in the midst of a civil war that Austria fights to keep her empire intact but is a war she has no hope of winning. Unable to successfully put down the regional revolts and fight Hungary at the same time Austria stubbornly attempts to do both. As the Austrian treasury empties her military is unable to defeat an invisible enemy in the outlying parts of the empire and is also unable to take the risk of openly driving on Buda and fighting the increasing organized Hungarian forces. As the weeks drag on and the expenses increase Austria faces a stalemate in her position. Finally after mounting international and domestic pressure Austria concedes.

... Flash forward to 1870. As Prussia and France go to war the Austria of the time is an alone, bankrupt, tired, tiny remnant of the power seen just 5 years previously. Vienna is forced to either include themselves in the Prussian plan or whither away bankrupt and powerless in obscurity. They make arrangements to become part of the Alliance of German states much the same as Bavaria and the other South Germans that go to war against the French. Though unable to support the effort in any grand scale Austria does send an Austrian division to fight. The unit captures the imagination of the public’s eye and becomes a national symbol of pride first at the Battle of Gravelotte by taking St. Privat and then (through Bismarck’s arrangements) have the honor of being part of the German unit that accepts Napoleon III's surrender at Sedan. The press and populous jubilation at this units course during the war set off wild celebrations through the country rejoicing and taking pride at something for the first time in years! Riding the wholly Germanic fervor of the times and with many economic and governmental deals behind the scenes the Austrians take their places as a power within a power as the nation of Germany takes the European stage. Unable to stomach the thought of a Hapsburg under a Hohenzollern but unwilling to stand against such a popular and beneficial arrangement for his country the Austrian Emperor silently steps down from the throne. Citing health concerns Franz Joseph steps down in favor of his son Archduke Rudolf. As the former emperor rides away to a distant estate Franz reads the headline of his morning paper ... Grossdeutschland!
 
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General Zod

Banned
Well done lonewulf. Hungary breaking away is the key, either in 1848, in 1866, or in 1867. And these are the best PoDs to achieve Grossdeutschsland.

Conceivably, we could also use a modified form of it in 1919, after a CP victory. Hungary claims even greater power and autonomy in a victorious but even more fragile A-H, the other Slavs claims equal rights within the Empire, Austrian government resists, Hungary breaks the Compromise and declares independence, Pan-German entusiasm is already sweeping Austrians after the victory, so the government petitions for entry in the German Empire, the German Army comes in to "restore order", and Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, and Slovenia are annexed to Germany

But the CP victory itself is much easier if Grossdeutschsland already exists, since the end of A-H will put put both Italy and Hungary firmly in Germany's camp.

Actually, despite the limitations placed by the OP, I deem Grossdeutschland easier to accomplish in 1866 or 1867 than in 1848, even if it's fully doable also in the Spring of Nations. Prussian leadership is much more firmly committed to German unification (under its guide of course) than to silly romantic ideals of the divine rights of kings. Russia is less committed to upholding the legitimist setup of Europe.

It is actually quite possible that the 1867 PoD you describe (the failure of the Compromise) may be the easiest PoD of all to accomplish.

I still assume that in your scenario, lonewulf, Bismarck does the wise thing and cedes Trento (not Bozen), Trieste (with customs extemptions for Germany), and Gorizia-Gradisca to Italy. An unshakable alliance with Italy is much more precious to Germany than stubbornly clinging to ethnically-Italian territories, Bismarck can easily see that, and favourable trade acces to Trieste can be easily negotiated in the cession treaty anyway. What about Istria and Dalmatia in this scenario ? Do they go to Hungary or to Italy ?
 
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But the CP victory itself is much easier if Grossdeutschsland already exists, since the end of A-H will put put both Italy and Hungary firmly in Germany's camp.

Thanks Zod.

And what are your thoughts on Russia. Is there any reason to think that with the dead weight of Hapsburg AH empire gone they wouldn't be able to deal with Russia directly and forge closer ties seeing as the Austrian-Hungary apprehensions about Russian power have vanished? Germany would need only concede to Russian control over Constantinople along with a few loans here and there to win Russia as an ally for a very long time I would think. I can't think of any conflict with the Magyars either. I suppose Italy wouldn't be inclined to see more powerful Slavic nations spring up along the coastal regions they coveted though.

Actually, despite the limitations placed by the OP, I deem Grossdeutschland easier to accomplish in 1866 or 1867 than in 1848, ...

I couldn't agree more.


I still assume that in your scenario, lonewulf, Bismarck does the wise thing and cedes Trento (not Bozen), Trieste (with customs extemptions for Germany), and Gorizia-Gradisca to Italy ... about Istria and Dalmatia in this scenario ? Do they go to Hungary or to Italy ?

Of course. And I would think they would go to Italy. If there is one think I rely on it's usually Bismarck doing the right/smart thing in history. The man towered above all others IMHO. (He is quoted in my sig after all) The one flaw I give him is his over reliance on A-H during the years of French isolation. This topic happily gives me a chance to remove that ;)
 

General Zod

Banned
And what are your thoughts on Russia. Is there any reason to think that with the dead weight of Hapsburg AH empire gone they wouldn't be able to deal with Russia directly and forge closer ties seeing as the Austrian-Hungary apprehensions about Russian power have vanished? Germany would need only concede to Russian control over Constantinople along with a few loans here and there to win Russia as an ally for a very long time I would think. I can't think of any conflict with the Magyars either. I suppose Italy wouldn't be inclined to see more powerful Slavic nations spring up along the coastal regions they coveted though.

Well, about Russia I still assume that Bismarck is even more eager to keep good relations with Russia in the 1870s-1880s. Even if he still can't leave Russia too much of a free hand in the Balkans, certainly not to the point of letting them raise Pan-Slav and irredentist unrest among the Slovak, Croat and Romanian subjects of Hungary, nor to let them interfere in the Italian interests in the Balkans. Italy is a very precious ally of Grossdeutschland, the key to keep France militarily contained, and Hungary is almost as precious, a bulwark to keep Grossdeutschland's southern flank protected. Of course, on its own Russia would be a much more important ally to Germany than Italy and Hungary, but the former will never likely be as reliable or easy to keep loyal as the latter two.

So Bismarck will still try to broker a deal in the Balkans in 1878. As far as Germany is concerned, Russia can build its Greater Bulgary satellite with Macedonia and Thrace, and can have a controlling interest in Constantinople, whileas Moscow must leave Bosnia and Romania to Hungary, Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Greece to Italy, and allow both to keep Serbians cowed. While the UK will struggle to keep as much territory as possible to the Ottomans, and will allow Russians in Constantinople over its corpse. The wheel-dealing at the ATL Berlin Conference in 1878 will be as furious as ever.

Probably the final deal will let Hungary annex (or get protectorate over) Bosnia-Hercegovina, the Italians doing the same over Albania and Montenegro, and Bulgaria being allowed to gain full independence in a state including Northern Thrace. Macedonia is a toss-up, really. Depending on how much stubborn the British and the Russians are, it could return to the Ottoman Empire, or being given the same kind of autonomy as OTL Eastern Rumelia. Greece likely gets Southern Epirus and Thessaly. Southern Thrace returns to the Ottoman Empire.

After Bismarck passes away, Germany will eventually be forced to pick a side in the strategic British-Russian rivalry. This assuming they do not do the supremely dumb OTL thing and antagonize both enough that they do a compromise alliance against Germany. Even if the Wilhelmine ruling elite is still so dumb, a Grossdeutschland-Italy-Hungary alliance has excellent chances of winning WWI, anyway, provided they still have the Ottomans neutral or on their side.

However, even assuming 1890s Germany gets a better leadership (which likely requires Willy's upbringing gives him a decent personality or his father never picks throat cancer and lives on till the 1920s, so Bismarck stays chancellor till his death in 1898), they must choose between a British alliance or a Russian alliance. Either, in combination with the Triple Alliance, will give Grossdeutschland the strategic safety in Europe they need to build up their economic hegemony. If the Russians agree to leave the Magyar and Italian interests alone, they can be kept as allies. If not, the British can be easily won over to joining the Triple Alliance by giving up excessive naval buildup (something Bismarck would have no qualms to do) and not picking colonial quarrels with the British.

Strategically both options are excellent for Germany. Russian friendship gives more garantees of continuing peace in Europe and economic expansion. British friendship is slightly more taxing as it still creates an opening for a general European war, but it is one that the Quadruple Alliance will have excellent chances to win quickly, beating down revanchist France for another generation, and pushing away the dinimished Russian might in the steppes, opening up huge territories (Poland, Finland, the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine) for German control and economic penetration, which would pose the basis for an even mightier Germany and an unassailable hegemony in Europe (assumed UK, Germany, and Italy do not let themselves fall into complacency so much they let themselves vulnerable to a France and Russia rearming for a WWII rematch).

In short, one alliance is the best option for a quiet slow economic expansion. The other is the best option to build an empire in Central and Eastern Europe with a quick successful war. Both options will yield very good long-term benefits for Germany and Europe too.

Of course. And I would think they would go to Italy. If there is one think I rely on it's usually Bismarck doing the right/smart thing in history. The man towered above all others IMHO. (He is quoted in my sig after all) The one flaw I give him is his over reliance on A-H during the years of French isolation.

Oh, I absolutely share your excellent judgement of Bismarck. If he's allowed to keep the state's helm till his death in 1898, he will most likely add to his already crowning OTL feats and the even more astonishing accomplishment of Grossdeutschland, the final masterpiece of a firm alliance with either Britain or Russia (or in my own ideal scenario, a North America USA). Even he won't be able to keep France fully isolated forever. But by keeping Italy and any of UK, Russia, or USA off France's side, he can almost garantee Germany victory in any general European war in the future. ITTL he will go into the history books as a Reichsvater and a statist any bit as admired as Napoleon, Washington, or Lincoln.

A victorious Germany will stay as reasonably civilized as the German Empire was and become even more liberal as the Center and SPD parties become a fully accepted part of the political spectrum and successfully pressure for full democratization of the Constitution. It will slowly build its economic and political hegemony over Europe all the way to a European Community, without the devastation of OTL WWI and WWII.

Of course, this does not rule out a defeated and revanchist France (or Russia) sliding into aggressive and even genocidal Fascism or Communism. Quite the contrary. So a World War coming this way is still way possible. But in all likelihood a French Stalin and/or Russian Hitler won't be able to make as much damage as the OTL combination.

These kinds of arguments are the reason why I'm so terribly fond of Grossdeutschland Bismarckwank scenarioes.
 
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JJohnson

Banned
Somewhat along these lines, I've started a group thread regarding a theoretical Germany keeping the 1871 borders; if anyone would like to help out in this thought exercise, please do.

James
 
Germany will eventually be forced to pick a side in the strategic British-Russian rivalry.

This is the crucial element to any Germany of probably any timeline during the late 19th century. Keeping with ITL Germany I still can see them going either way in regards to picking a friend. I’m a bit more inclined to say they would pick Russia. How would the absence of A-H change things for Germany and just as importantly for Russia at the Congress of Berlin? I would think that in place of the OTL Three Emperors' League we would still see Germany and Russia come together with some kind of partnership of Hungary possibly. But the real issue becomes what would happen during and especially after the CoB. Without A-H, would Bismarck side with Russia more and avoid her being left bitter and feeling slighted by Germany? If so, it seems that would totally antagonize a UK that was determined to push back the Russian influence in the region. Without a decrepit A-H, Bismarck would have no option for (His glaring error) a Duel Alliance.

This assuming they do not do the supremely dumb OTL thing and antagonize both enough that they do a compromise alliance against Germany

Yes, assuming such. I wonder if French statesmen during this time were just sitting back and laughing at seeing Germany stumble and trip their way into diplomatic isolation pushing 3 historic and very different nations into an alliance against them. I still see a lot of blundering along the way, but I have to think that without a major ally (Don’t consider Hungary nor Italy such) they would do more to seek a friend … be that the UK or Russia or elsewhere.

Hence I agree with you in …

they must choose between a British alliance or a Russian alliance. Either, in combination with the Triple Alliance, will give Grossdeutschland the strategic safety in Europe they need to build up their economic hegemony. If the Russians agree to leave the Magyar and Italian interests alone, they can be kept as allies. If not, the British can be easily won over to



However, even assuming 1890s Germany gets a better leadership … or his father never picks throat cancer and lives on till the 1920s, so Bismarck stays chancellor till his death in 1898) …

That’s something I’ve pondered over many many times. If only Freddie could have made it through or picked a different doctor which might have saved him. Quite a different (and better) Europe would have been seen.



the final masterpiece of a firm alliance with either Britain or Russia (or in my own ideal scenario, a North America USA).

I’m absolutely intrigued. Do you have anything written or put down in regards to this? I would love to see it if so. An alliance with the US would be a terrific achievement but something very difficult to do at the time. Starting with possible smaller trade and security arrangements maybe leading up to something larger I can see. When and how did you envision it?



A victorious Germany will stay as reasonably civilized as the German Empire was and become even more liberal as the Center and SPD parties become a fully accepted part of the political spectrum and successfully pressure for full democratization of the Constitution. It will slowly build its economic and political hegemony over Europe all the way to a European Community, without the devastation of OTL WWI and WWII.
These kinds of arguments are the reason why I'm so terribly fond of Grossdeutschland Bismarckwank scenarioes.

I agree with that trend. The SPD and other parties could only have grown exponentially after such a war and parliamentary power with it. We share that fondness.
 

General Zod

Banned
This is the crucial element to any Germany of probably any timeline during the late 19th century. Keeping with ITL Germany I still can see them going either way in regards to picking a friend. I’m a bit more inclined to say they would pick Russia.

With Bismarck at the helm, in the 1870s-1880s, that's the side they would most easily lean to. But even so, they still would leave themselves open to both opportunity (he never burned any bridges as concerned relationships with UK and Russia). The crucial period where a choice must be made is the 1890s.

Theoretically, both choices reap very good, if somewhat different, dividends for Germany. And I reckon them as roughly equally likely. I only deem the TLs with the British choice more overall beneficial (and hence more interesting) to Germany and Europe, for several reasons:

-alliance with UK fosters the democratic evolution of Germany, alliance with Russia slows it.

-for peoples of Central and Eastern Europe, somewhat better to be governed by the already kinda-liberal and more econimically efficient German Empire than by an absolutist and maybe slowly democratizing Czarist Russia.

-It is somewhat easier to integrate a Russia knocked down a couple pegs to its core, in a system of European integraton, than the full-bore Czarist Empire.

Besides, a friendship with Britain is somewhat easier to fulfill (they basically have to give up the naval buildup) than a friendship with Russia (they have to concede further Russian encroachments in the Balkans and the Middle East).

How would the absence of A-H change things for Germany and just as importantly for Russia at the Congress of Berlin? I would think that in place of the OTL Three Emperors' League we would still see Germany and Russia come together with some kind of partnership of Hungary possibly. But the real issue becomes what would happen during and especially after the CoB. Without A-H, would Bismarck side with Russia more and avoid her being left bitter and feeling slighted by Germany? If so, it seems that would totally antagonize a UK that was determined to push back the Russian influence in the region. Without a decrepit A-H, Bismarck would have no option for (His glaring error) a Duel Alliance.

Bismarck would still try to broker a deal slightly more favourable to Russia, but wouldn't antagonize Britain. He would still play the part of the mediator, even if Russia would likely gain something significantly better, i.e. an independent Bulgaria with Northern Thrace, and Macedonia given some kind of autonomy. But Britain would still see its own vital interest, Eastern Thrace, Constantinople and the Straits, safely returned to the Ottoman Empire. Nobody would be antagonized, only a temporary compromise stricken that delays the clash for a decade or two.

I disagree, however, that the CoB would be an irrevocable turning point about the relationship of Germany, UK, and Russia. Even more important would be the side Germany takes when ongoing Anglo-Russian tension mounts not only over the Balkans, but also Central Asia and the Far East in the late 1880s and 1890s.

Yes, assuming such. I wonder if French statesmen during this time were just sitting back and laughing at seeing Germany stumble and trip their way into diplomatic isolation pushing 3 historic and very different nations into an alliance against them. I still see a lot of blundering along the way, but I have to think that without a major ally (Don’t consider Hungary nor Italy such) they would do more to seek a friend … be that the UK or Russia or elsewhere.

Don't underestimate the Italians in WWI by any means. They were nowhere as wimpy as in WWII. That alliance holds the key to containtment and eventual defeat of France.

Anyway, about the major point, sure, Willy the Boor and his yes-men ministers saw the need for picking a major ally among the pair, but they were so politically inept that they bungled into antagonizing both. They didn't lacked the basic idea, but they utterly lacked skill.

To succeed (and mind you, a Greater Germany, Italy, Hungary and say a neutral or allied Ottoman Empire still has excellent chances to defeat the Triple Entente anyway) they need first a way to neutralize Willy completely for a couple decades, second retain the services of Bismarck as much as possible.

Hence, after Grossdeutchsland, I forward you the other key for a ultimate optimal success of German-lead Europe, namely Frederick III. He never catches throat cancer and lives to a ripe old age, like his longeve father and son, of 80-90. A Frederick III long reign till the 1910-1920 and Bismarck in office till 1898 gives Germany plenty of breathing space to make its position unassailable.

Here's a rough sketch for this kind of Bismarckian-Frederickian Grossdeutchsland TL:

ca 1878. The immune system of Frederick of Hohenzollern being a bit more efficient, a certain rogue cell in his throat is safely dispatched.

1888. a healthy and fit Frederick III ascends to the throne. He and his infleuntial wife begin to exert influence. Bismarck, ever the pragmatic one, after some futile maneuvering accepts his fate and brokers a deal with the new Emperor.

1890. The Great Compromise. Frederick III and Bismarck launch an ambitious program of political and social reforms, which is dubbed the "Liberal Empire": the Imperial Constitution is reformed to a semi-parliamentary system (much akin to the OTL 1958 French Constitution). The Chancellor is made responsible to both the Emperor and the Reichstag, the Prussian electoral systerm is reformed to universal male suffrage, appropriations for the armed forces are made biennial but the Reichstag cannot cut them below their previous level without the Chancellor's consent, the Reichstag is given legislative initiative with the power of veto for the Emperor, the Emperor and the Chancellor retain control of the foreign policy and the military. Concessions about funds for religious education win the Centre Party to a coalition with moderate Conservatives and National Liberals, the anti-socialist laws are left to die off and the Bismarckian program of social reforms are enlarged and strengthened. The Social Democrats, while nominally keeping apart, slowly become a part of the political system.

In foreign policy, Bismarck, while getting leeway to seek coexistence with Russia, recives a mandate to seek friendship with Britain. Plans for a massive naval buildup are scrapped and a compromise naval treaty is signed which builds a 4:10 naval ratio between Germany and Britain. Further Anglo-German reapprochement comes from a colonial treaty which mandates the exchange of Tanganyka (which UK covets to build the Cape-Cairo railway) with Ghana and Eastern Nigeria, which join the German colonies of Gabon, Middle Congo, Togoland, and South West Africa.

1890s. As Britain finds itself pitted against French expansion in northeast Africa and Russian expansion in Central Asia, they seek closer relations with Germany. Sympathy for the new, liberal German Empire grows in the British public, and the Empror Frederick fosters a pro-British attitude in the German public. In the face of ongoing Russian encroachment in the Balkans, Bismarck grows disllusioned with Russia. Nonetheless, he renewes the Reinsurance Treaty.

1894. British-German non-aggression pact: the two countries agree not to go to war against each other, and remain neutral if either country finds itself at war with a third power. The UK signs similar treaties with Italy and Hungary. Russia, feeling isolated, signs the Dual Entente defensive alliance with France. Both nations agree to come to each other's aid if either finds itself at war with a third power. The Reinsurance Treaty is left to expire.

1898. "Bismarck's last masterpiece". In the face of his declining health, and wishing to secure the diplomatic position of Germany, Bismarck successfully negotiates the Anglo-German defensive alliance with Prime Minister Chamberlain. Successive treaties with Italy and Hungary expand the long-standing Triple Alliance into the Quadruple Alliance. Each member promise mutual support in the event of an attack by any other great power. Bismarck dies soon afterwards, he is given a state funeral and made a national hero, the Reichsvater.

1904-5: The Japanese declare war on Russia. France immediately declares war on Japan. The Japanese are able to quickly defeat the Russians when Russia tries to invade Korea. The Japanese successfully invade Manchuria but a combined Franco-Russian fleet defeats the Japanese fleet off the coast of Port Arthur. With the loss of its fleet, Japan is unable to ocntinue the war on the Asian mainland. The US President mediates a peace treaty among the warring nations. Japan is permitted to annex Korea and retain Port Arthur, but has to evacuate Machuria. Russia is permitted to annex northern Manchuria and to estabish a protectorate over southern Manchuria. France is permitted to estalibh a protectorate over the Shantung peninsula. Japan is smarting from the defeat ans disgns an alliance with Britain.

1906: Alarmed about Franco-Russian naval power, Germany and Britain sign the Anglo-German Naval Treaty. The naval ratio betrween the two countries is revised to 3:5. Secret protocols of the Quadruple Alliance are signed which place the fleets of UK, Germany, and Italy under a common Allied command with British leadership in case of a major war. Britain agrees to send an Expeditionary Force to the continent, and to place its land forces under a common Allied command with German leadership.
 
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This is on a different track than the previous responses but how about this. In 1854, Austria ends up allying with Russia in the Crimean war. The Hapsburgs already owe the Russians a favor for helping them put down the Hungarian revolt in 1848. Austrian support swings the war to a bit more of a stalemate. Russia isn't humiliated but still sees that her armed forces need an upgrade and does so just as in OTL. France might be quite unwilling to back Sardinia-Piedmont for Italian unification or at least wouldn't recommend taking on the Austrians with Russian backing. In 1866 or so the crisis for leadership in Germany comes to a head and Austria with Russia beats the Prussians soundly. Austria annexes Silesia and possibly takes the Rhineland. France and possibly Britain would fear a united German Empire or at least German hegemony and Attack Austria A long with Prussia. The Austrias might well offer Russia Galicia, parts of Eastern Prussia, a free hand in the Balkans, and future assistance against the Turks in exchange for assistance. A combined Austrian/Russian offensive would crush and occupy Prussia quickly and the Austrian dominated, centralized, German Federation would most likely push France back off of German soil, even taking Paris. Now, assuming this all happens, my question would be do you think Austria would attempt to merge with a unified German Federation? The Hapsburgs would be averse to unifying with a federal republic which stood for liberal freedoms but the territorial gain might well be worth it or they might cave to a wave of German nationalism that coalesces around the only major German power left.
 

CalBear

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This is on a different track than the previous responses but how about this. In 1854, Austria ends up allying with Russia in the Crimean war. The Hapsburgs already owe the Russians a favor for helping them put down the Hungarian revolt in 1848. Austrian support swings the war to a bit more of a stalemate. Russia isn't humiliated but still sees that her armed forces need an upgrade and does so just as in OTL. France might be quite unwilling to back Sardinia-Piedmont for Italian unification or at least wouldn't recommend taking on the Austrians with Russian backing. In 1866 or so the crisis for leadership in Germany comes to a head and Austria with Russia beats the Prussians soundly. Austria annexes Silesia and possibly takes the Rhineland. France and possibly Britain would fear a united German Empire or at least German hegemony and Attack Austria A long with Prussia. The Austrias might well offer Russia Galicia, parts of Eastern Prussia, a free hand in the Balkans, and future assistance against the Turks in exchange for assistance. A combined Austrian/Russian offensive would crush and occupy Prussia quickly and the Austrian dominated, centralized, German Federation would most likely push France back off of German soil, even taking Paris. Now, assuming this all happens, my question would be do you think Austria would attempt to merge with a unified German Federation? The Hapsburgs would be averse to unifying with a federal republic which stood for liberal freedoms but the territorial gain might well be worth it or they might cave to a wave of German nationalism that coalesces around the only major German power left.

Excellent writing General Zod. This would make a spectacular timeline, the First World War with Britain and a revanchist Japan in the Central Powers camp...

Don't reply to dead threads.

General Zod hasn't been on line here for better than 2 years, he posted in this thread THREE years ago.

Since you actually put something of substance in here we'll call this a warning.

Don't do it again.

CalBear in Mod Mode.
 
Don't reply to dead threads.

General Zod hasn't been on line here for better than 2 years, he posted in this thread THREE years ago.

Since you actually put something of substance in here we'll call this a warning.

Don't do it again.

CalBear in Mod Mode.

Apologies...didn't realize this was a necro thread until I looked at the date
 
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