This is the crucial element to any Germany of probably any timeline during the late 19th century. Keeping with ITL Germany I still can see them going either way in regards to picking a friend. I’m a bit more inclined to say they would pick Russia.
With Bismarck at the helm, in the 1870s-1880s, that's the side they would most easily lean to. But even so, they still would leave themselves open to both opportunity (he never burned any bridges as concerned relationships with UK and Russia). The crucial period where a choice must be made is the 1890s.
Theoretically, both choices reap very good, if somewhat different, dividends for Germany. And I reckon them as roughly equally likely. I only deem the TLs with the British choice more overall beneficial (and hence more interesting) to Germany and Europe, for several reasons:
-alliance with UK fosters the democratic evolution of Germany, alliance with Russia slows it.
-for peoples of Central and Eastern Europe, somewhat better to be governed by the already kinda-liberal and more econimically efficient German Empire than by an absolutist and maybe slowly democratizing Czarist Russia.
-It is somewhat easier to integrate a Russia knocked down a couple pegs to its core, in a system of European integraton, than the full-bore Czarist Empire.
Besides, a friendship with Britain is somewhat easier to fulfill (they basically have to give up the naval buildup) than a friendship with Russia (they have to concede further Russian encroachments in the Balkans and the Middle East).
How would the absence of A-H change things for Germany and just as importantly for Russia at the Congress of Berlin? I would think that in place of the OTL Three Emperors' League we would still see Germany and Russia come together with some kind of partnership of Hungary possibly. But the real issue becomes what would happen during and especially after the CoB. Without A-H, would Bismarck side with Russia more and avoid her being left bitter and feeling slighted by Germany? If so, it seems that would totally antagonize a UK that was determined to push back the Russian influence in the region. Without a decrepit A-H, Bismarck would have no option for (His glaring error) a Duel Alliance.
Bismarck would still try to broker a deal slightly more favourable to Russia, but wouldn't antagonize Britain. He would still play the part of the mediator, even if Russia would likely gain something significantly better, i.e. an independent Bulgaria with Northern Thrace, and Macedonia given some kind of autonomy. But Britain would still see its own vital interest, Eastern Thrace, Constantinople and the Straits, safely returned to the Ottoman Empire. Nobody would be antagonized, only a temporary compromise stricken that delays the clash for a decade or two.
I disagree, however, that the CoB would be an irrevocable turning point about the relationship of Germany, UK, and Russia. Even more important would be the side Germany takes when ongoing Anglo-Russian tension mounts not only over the Balkans, but also Central Asia and the Far East in the late 1880s and 1890s.
Yes, assuming such. I wonder if French statesmen during this time were just sitting back and laughing at seeing Germany stumble and trip their way into diplomatic isolation pushing 3 historic and very different nations into an alliance against them. I still see a lot of blundering along the way, but I have to think that without a major ally (Don’t consider Hungary nor Italy such) they would do more to seek a friend … be that the UK or Russia or elsewhere.
Don't underestimate the Italians in WWI by any means. They were nowhere as wimpy as in WWII. That alliance holds the key to containtment and eventual defeat of France.
Anyway, about the major point, sure, Willy the Boor and his yes-men ministers saw the need for picking a major ally among the pair, but they were so politically inept that they bungled into antagonizing both. They didn't lacked the basic idea, but they utterly lacked skill.
To succeed (and mind you, a Greater Germany, Italy, Hungary and say a neutral or allied Ottoman Empire still has excellent chances to defeat the Triple Entente anyway) they need first a way to neutralize Willy completely for a couple decades, second retain the services of Bismarck as much as possible.
Hence, after Grossdeutchsland, I forward you the other key for a ultimate optimal success of German-lead Europe, namely Frederick III. He never catches throat cancer and lives to a ripe old age, like his longeve father and son, of 80-90. A Frederick III long reign till the 1910-1920 and Bismarck in office till 1898 gives Germany plenty of breathing space to make its position unassailable.
Here's a rough sketch for this kind of Bismarckian-Frederickian Grossdeutchsland TL:
ca 1878. The immune system of Frederick of Hohenzollern being a bit more efficient, a certain rogue cell in his throat is safely dispatched.
1888. a healthy and fit Frederick III ascends to the throne. He and his infleuntial wife begin to exert influence. Bismarck, ever the pragmatic one, after some futile maneuvering accepts his fate and brokers a deal with the new Emperor.
1890. The Great Compromise. Frederick III and Bismarck launch an ambitious program of political and social reforms, which is dubbed the "Liberal Empire": the Imperial Constitution is reformed to a semi-parliamentary system (much akin to the OTL 1958 French Constitution). The Chancellor is made responsible to both the Emperor and the Reichstag, the Prussian electoral systerm is reformed to universal male suffrage, appropriations for the armed forces are made biennial but the Reichstag cannot cut them below their previous level without the Chancellor's consent, the Reichstag is given legislative initiative with the power of veto for the Emperor, the Emperor and the Chancellor retain control of the foreign policy and the military. Concessions about funds for religious education win the Centre Party to a coalition with moderate Conservatives and National Liberals, the anti-socialist laws are left to die off and the Bismarckian program of social reforms are enlarged and strengthened. The Social Democrats, while nominally keeping apart, slowly become a part of the political system.
In foreign policy, Bismarck, while getting leeway to seek coexistence with Russia, recives a mandate to seek friendship with Britain. Plans for a massive naval buildup are scrapped and a compromise naval treaty is signed which builds a 4:10 naval ratio between Germany and Britain. Further Anglo-German reapprochement comes from a colonial treaty which mandates the exchange of Tanganyka (which UK covets to build the Cape-Cairo railway) with Ghana and Eastern Nigeria, which join the German colonies of Gabon, Middle Congo, Togoland, and South West Africa.
1890s. As Britain finds itself pitted against French expansion in northeast Africa and Russian expansion in Central Asia, they seek closer relations with Germany. Sympathy for the new, liberal German Empire grows in the British public, and the Empror Frederick fosters a pro-British attitude in the German public. In the face of ongoing Russian encroachment in the Balkans, Bismarck grows disllusioned with Russia. Nonetheless, he renewes the Reinsurance Treaty.
1894. British-German non-aggression pact: the two countries agree not to go to war against each other, and remain neutral if either country finds itself at war with a third power. The UK signs similar treaties with Italy and Hungary. Russia, feeling isolated, signs the Dual Entente defensive alliance with France. Both nations agree to come to each other's aid if either finds itself at war with a third power. The Reinsurance Treaty is left to expire.
1898. "Bismarck's last masterpiece". In the face of his declining health, and wishing to secure the diplomatic position of Germany, Bismarck successfully negotiates the Anglo-German defensive alliance with Prime Minister Chamberlain. Successive treaties with Italy and Hungary expand the long-standing Triple Alliance into the Quadruple Alliance. Each member promise mutual support in the event of an attack by any other great power. Bismarck dies soon afterwards, he is given a state funeral and made a national hero, the
Reichsvater.
1904-5: The Japanese declare war on Russia. France immediately declares war on Japan. The Japanese are able to quickly defeat the Russians when Russia tries to invade Korea. The Japanese successfully invade Manchuria but a combined Franco-Russian fleet defeats the Japanese fleet off the coast of Port Arthur. With the loss of its fleet, Japan is unable to ocntinue the war on the Asian mainland. The US President mediates a peace treaty among the warring nations. Japan is permitted to annex Korea and retain Port Arthur, but has to evacuate Machuria. Russia is permitted to annex northern Manchuria and to estabish a protectorate over southern Manchuria. France is permitted to estalibh a protectorate over the Shantung peninsula. Japan is smarting from the defeat ans disgns an alliance with Britain.
1906: Alarmed about Franco-Russian naval power, Germany and Britain sign the Anglo-German Naval Treaty. The naval ratio betrween the two countries is revised to 3:5. Secret protocols of the Quadruple Alliance are signed which place the fleets of UK, Germany, and Italy under a common Allied command with British leadership in case of a major war. Britain agrees to send an Expeditionary Force to the continent, and to place its land forces under a common Allied command with German leadership.