Challenge: Greater Somalia

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to create a Somali-run state comprising OTL Somalia, Djibouti, the Ogaden, and northeastern Kenya by the present day with a POD after the 1960 creation of Somalia.
 

Hashasheen

Banned
Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to create a Somali-run state comprising OTL Somalia, Djibouti, the Ogaden, and northeastern Kenya by the present day with a POD after the 1960 creation of Somalia.
That is'n't so hard Doc, had the Soviets kept backing the Somalis and not turned back to the Ethiopians, they would have gotten the Ogaden and later went against the Kenyans to get the ethnic Somalis there.
 
Someone tougher that either Carter or Ford wins the 1976 US presidential elections and decides to erase the shame of Vietnam by helping Somalia during the Ogaden War, portraying it as a war of liberation of the Somalis from the Ethiopians and their Russian sponsors. After some years Ethiopia collapses and cedes Ogaden to Somalia, falling shortly after in a state of civil war between communists and conservative factions. Eritrea gains independence de facto.

The following years Somalia enjoys a close relation with the USA, who sees it as its man in the region. The result is a greater modernization of the armed forces and the infraestructure necessary to link the different Somali regions and the interior. While the USSR is locked in Afghanistan in the 80s, Somalia uses a border incident to intervene again in Ethiopia and force her to recognize Eritrean independence. Inmediately, Eritrea and Somalia become de facto allies. They draw plans to divide Djibouti into spheres of influence, and when civil war brokes there (in 1991 in OTL, could be earlier or later in the ATL) they intervene to protect "their" citizens there. With the world looking at Kuwait, it's easy to partition a country with no resources and a dubious referendum years later decides the dissolution of the country along ethnic lines: the Afar join Eritrea, and the Issas Somalia.

From then on, Somalia (still one piece) decides to support a separatist movement in NE Kenya, and so it ends in control of that part of the country despite not recognized by the rest of the world (like Uganda and Ruanda are in control of much of NE Congo today).
 
Inmediately, Eritrea and Somalia become de facto allies. They draw plans to divide Djibouti into spheres of influence, and when civil war brokes there (in 1991 in OTL, could be earlier or later in the ATL) they intervene to protect "their" citizens there. With the world looking at Kuwait, it's easy to partition a country with no resources and a dubious referendum years later decides the dissolution of the country along ethnic lines: the Afar join Eritrea, and the Issas Somalia.

The idea was for all of Djibouti to be annexed by Somalia. Both Britannica and wiki say that the majority of the population is made up of Somalis, most of them Issas, so I think you could have it join Somalia voluntarily if the country does well economically. As for Kenya, this could help.

Anyway, I think a key factor here would be if Somalia could get even more Arab and Western/Soviet/Chinese support than it did in OTL.
 
I think that Soviet or perhaps Arab support is key, you can't do this with USA support. Americans have never liked their client states getting too big/powerful. The west, especially france is definately not going to let them take Djibouti.
 
I think that Soviet or perhaps Arab support is key, you can't do this with USA support. Americans have never liked their client states getting too big/powerful. The west, especially france is definately not going to let them take Djibouti.

If the Americans see Somalia as a bulwark against communism they won't object much; they didn't oppose German reunification, Israel in '67, Morocco on Western Sahara, Italy on Trieste, Indonesia on Western New Guinea or East Timor. France will tolerate it if they're allowed to keep forces there.
 
All it would take is better leadership.

All that Siad barre had to do is put up with Soviet betrayal and support for ethiopia, and turn a blind eye to arms shipments, becuase there was nothing that could be done.

Then use the right oppurtunity to switch to western aid,
Turn down the $200 million saudi bribe/incentive to switch sides and kick the soviets out untill you have Reagan in power, carter was a pussy and too concerned with detente.

Arms and aid was already flowing in from The arabs , especially egypt and Iraq, pakistan sent pilots in the 77 war and actually engaged ethiopian pilots.

The best time to initiate a fullscale war would have been 1985,
cubans were still there but were on the way out.

The somalis were defeated by 20,000 cuban troops allong with east german, soviet non-combat technicians,
after they defeated the ethiopian army.

so it would not have been to difficult in 85.

only good judgement was needed.
 
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