Challenge: Greater Hungary after 1945

[Sang]

After the Fall of Communism in Eastern Europe, Hungary began disarming, abolishing conscription, selling it's guns, etc.
But what if they weren't so pacifistic?
In 1989 there was a violent revolution in Romania, a perfect opportunity for Hungary to invade and take Transylvania away.
After Slovakia was formed in 1992, they had no army for several months.
And not to mention, the Yugoslav War. Hungary actually smuggled guns to Croatia, because of the Croatian-Hungarian friendship. But what if they actively took part in the war against Serbia, and occupied Vojvodina?
In 1995, Ukraine offered Hungary to give Transcarpathia to them for free, but the Hungarian politicians didn't accept.

So, how could have it happened?
How many more deaths would have these wars caused?

 

[Dementor]

Probably if ASB intervened.
Unprovoked invasions of sovereign countries are simply no-no in modern Europe. Even the first invasion would lead to the total condemnation and isolation of Hungary and more than likely, an intervention by the UN or simply by the other countries who would feel threatened by this (Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia). Even if this doesn't happen and Hungary defeats Romania so totally as to take Transylvania (which is not at all certain), a further invasion would be just an invitation for Romania to try to retake Transylvania. Hungary simply wouldn't have the resources to fight all the enemies they would create.
And I would like some source for the very unlikely claim that Ukraine offered Transcarpathia to Hungary (which would be very unpopular among the inhabitants of the region).

 

[Sang]

Probably if ASB intervened.
Unprovoked invasions of sovereign countries are simply no-no in modern Europe. Even the first invasion would lead to the total condemnation and isolation of Hungary and more than likely, an intervention by the UN or simply by the other countries who would feel threatened by this (Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia). Even if this doesn't happen and Hungary defeats Romania so totally as to take Transylvania (which is not at all certain), a further invasion would be just an invitation for Romania to try to retake Transylvania. Hungary simply wouldn't have the resources to fight all the enemies they would create.

Indeed. Hungary doesn't have resources. But it does have manpower. Hungary could arm the Hungarian-speaking minorities in Transylvania, Slovakia and Vojvodina, and use them to defend the land until the reconquest is finished.
As for weapons, they could borrow some from a close friend, namely Austria. Or Italy.
Croatia and Poland have always been friendly to Hungary. Even Austria.
We might see some Croatian and/Polish volunteers interfering.

Let's see. Transylvania taken, Romania is angry and wants revenge, but decides to wait and watch from the back.
Hungary occupies Slovakia, which doesn't have an army yet.
And then interferes in the Yugoslav war, by going against Serbia on Croatia's side.

And I would like some source for the very unlikely claim that Ukraine offered Transcarpathia to Hungary (which would be very unpopular among the inhabitants of the region).

I can't find any English-language scource, but this Hungarian language scource says
" és azt se feledjük el, hogy Horvátország felajánlotta az áruló Antall-kormánynak a perszonálúniót Magyarországgal, Ukrajna felajánlotta Kárpátalját, ez a ugyancsak a 9o-es évek elején történet, amit Antall visszautasított"
Translated to English:
"And let us not forget how Croatia offered a personal union to the treacherous Antall-government, and how Ukraine offered Transcarpathia, which also happened in the early 90s, and Antall didn't accept"

 

[Shevek23]

I really don't think anyone in the West would just stand by; if they could get agreement with Russia, Ukraine, however many pieces Czechoslovakia were in by that point on a joint policy, Hungary would have no choice but to back down.

Perhaps, just perhaps, they could put in a plea for a referendum in Transylvania and just maybe it would vote for transfer to Hungary. But I think that would be the end of it, and only if they did not attempt something so high-handed as an invasion prior to or during that process.

All the other territories--Slovakia they have no rational claim to whatsoever save ancient rights of conquest. Even in 1910 that territory was ethnically Slovakian. Note I'm comparing to a map of ethnicities as of 1910, but in all the upheaval since--a big part of Stalin's pacification strategy in the Warsaw Pact zone was ethnic relocation; there was only so much national homogenization that could be accomplished with border adjustments, and when those had been redrawn there was a massive forced migration of Poles into Poland, Germans into East Germany, and I presume quite a lot of the same kind of thing going on in all the other Moscow-dominated "fraternal People's Republics."

Going by the 1910 map I have, there were Magyar majorities in a larger area than post-1945 Hungary; on your second map these correspond to the very dark green areas plus parts--by no means the whole!--of the next-darkest green. In Transylvania for instance, which your map shows as solidly Magyar, the Magyars were actually clustered around the eastern part of it, with a clear Romanian majority area to the west separating them from the main body of Hungary. There is no way to draw contiguous borders so Romanians are on one side, Hungarians on the other--either non-contiguous borders are adopted, giving Hungary an "island" far to its east separating a Romanian island sandwiched between these bits of Hungary, or one nation or the other winds up with a big minority population from the other. Or, massive relocation. I believe OTL the eastern Magyars were largely left in place but subordinated to Rumania.

The only reason it might be plausible for Transylvania to vote to switch back to Hungary en bloc would be if the western Romanians were convinced they'd be better off as a minority in Hungary than continuing as Romanians. Awful as the Communist Romanian regime was, though, I think the track record Hungarians had established of getting along with non-Magyar minorities was so poor, I doubt it. Given the fissile tendencies of Yugoslavia in these years I think a more likely outcome than union with Hungary would be the establishment of a new, bi-ethnic Transylvanian independent state. That might not have been pretty either, but I think this is much more likely to have been acceptable to the greater powers around and even to the Transylvanians than feeding Magyar ambitions.

So it goes with all the peripheral territories. To the south of Hungary's 1945 borders would be where, if patterns of 1910 were still true, they'd have the strongest claims based on ethnicity. But I'm pretty sure either Russia or some Western power, notably Germany, would oppose any serious land-grabbing by Hungary there. If they did, I doubt the ethnic borders corresponded exactly to any pre-established regional ones; they'd be cutting slices off.

The Greater-Hungarian boosters would have to be smoking something pretty strong to think they'd get away with slicing off even a little bit of Austria!

So the closest I can see would be, when Yugoslavia breaks up there are local referenda under NATO or UN supervision, on whether strongly Magyar regions bordering directly on Hungary would join Hungary or remain with their historical divisions. This could conceivably happen only if the Hungarians refrain from any hint of considering taking land from anyone by force; trying to do so would make them instant pariahs.

The territories to the north and east are just plain ASB to take then; to the south there is absolutely no way to gain territories all the way to the sea! The total increment would be modest, and that conditional on Hungary being credibly pacifist, well-governed, and tolerant (no matter how you draw boundaries, significant minorities will be included).

Conquest by force would not be tolerated.

 

[MSZ]

After 1945 the only way for this to happen would be for WWIII to break out, NATO making it into Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Transylvania - and at this point the Soviets suing for peace, which the Allies accept, seeing reincorporation of Transylvania and Vojvodina into NATO-allied Hungary as justified (since it would be hard to turn them into independent states) and Slovakia as well (maybe on the basis of Slovakia being a former Nazi ally). But this seriously next to impossible. The Hungarians wouldn't be powerfull enough to take or keep those territories by force at any point, and if someone else was to do the fighting for them - they would rather want them for themselves.

Maybe a situation with a different Autumn of Nations where Hungary manages to become a successfull democracy and do better economically than OTL, while Slovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia does significanly worse, leading to some kind of different CEFTA-like political union forming, into which the Slovaks, Serbs, Romanians join for purely economic reasons. But that is just as unlikely.

 

[KACKO]

After Slovakia was formed in 1993, they had no army for several months.

Actually it was january 1992. And where did you find Slovakia after proclaiming independence didn't had a Army for several months? Dissolution of Czechoslovakia was based on agreement of Czech and Slovaks government. Army was divided in ratio 2:1 in favor of Czechs excepts modern weapons. For example MiG-29 were divided 1:1. Since summer 1991 to january 1992 there were transfers of units between the countries. Slovak soldiers were transfered from units in Czech part to Slovakia. Actually Slovakia ended with over 950 tanks from which over 250 were T-72s and app. 1250 APC, over 750 artillery systems around 100 fighter planes, around 50 ground attack planes and choppers plus as a supprise, there was actually battery of SS-23 Spider in 5th rocket regiment in Martin with range appr. 320 miles so there was for Slovaks the possibility of striking Budapest. If this is no army. I don't know what is. From other side, what Hungary and Slovakia are passing for the army now, as a members of NATO, that's what makes people laugh.
I believe Slovakia was potentially prepared for similar Hungarian attack as they performed in late march 1939, when they first accepted creation of Slovak republic and later attacked.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Interesting having a Serbian map of Greater Hungary

 

[Sang]

Another way couldbe - I think - to make Hungary stay communist, and go aggressive on the non-commie neighbours, for example help Ceacescu in Romania if he agrees to cede Transylvania to them, etc.

 

[KACKO]

Another way couldbe - I think - to make Hungary stay communist, and go aggressive on the non-commie neighbours, for example help Ceacescu in Romania if he agrees to cede Transylvania to them, etc.

I thin other way around would be more possible. Troubles in Romania for Ceacescu on December 1989 started in mostly Hungarian speaking areas and later spread. If they didn't and Romania army and Romanian people would stay united against Hungarian "trouble makers" let say after that Hungarian army would start humanitarian occupation of Transylvania, at leas Hungarian speaking parts. But I am not sure if Hungary would be able pull that without help of west. I believe Romania army was to strong for them. Same counts in 1989 for Czechoslovak army. If Romanians did something as Serbs in Kosovo, that could help Hungarians a bit.
And small surprise. In August 1968 when Hungarian army came to southern Slovakia as part of Warsaw block to put end to rague spring" they were actually not welcome by their Hungarians brothers.
BTW after 1938 incorporation of parts of Slovakia to Hungary prices in area skyrocketed, for government jobs Hungarians from Hungary proper were brought in and among Hungarian population new saying spread up: Minden drága, jobb volt Prága!” (Everything expensive, Prague was better). So basically best thing how Hungarians could get some parts back would be if their economy was much much better then Slovak, Romania or Serbian. At the end, everything is going through peoples wallet.

 

[Marko]

"And let us not forget how Croatia offered a personal union to the treacherous Antall-government, and how Ukraine offered Transcarpathia, which also happened in the early 90s, and Antall didn't accept"

That line alone makes me rather suspicious of the linked site. Croatia ofered no such thing nor was it possible since it is forbined by our constitution. There is an ongoing debate (not very vocal) happening in Croatia wether joing the EU is constitutional.

The only teritorial extension I can see for Hungary after the fall of comunism is parts of Vojvodina. If the Serbian goverment/paramilitary groups decided to appaly same amount of on the Hungarians as they did on Croats there might have been armed resistance and a premise for a possible Hunagiran intervention. That might not be such a bad thing because it might butterfly the Bosnian war or at least its worst excessess.

 

[Sang]

The only teritorial extension I can see for Hungary after the fall of comunism is parts of Vojvodina. If the Serbian goverment/paramilitary groups decided to appaly same amount of on the Hungarians as they did on Croats there might have been armed resistance and a premise for a possible Hunagiran intervention. That might not be such a bad thing because it might butterfly the Bosnian war or at least its worst excessess.

Are you sure that Hungarian intervention could butterfly the anti-Bosniak genocide?

If Hungarians got Vojvodina back, they would be like "Oh, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme!" meaning that they'd get really confident, and claim back all what they used to have.

 

[Marko]

Hungary + what ever forces Croatia can arm in '91 is roughly even to what JNA can send to the field so there will not be surplus manpower and equipment that was the cause of much of the early Serbian success in both Croatia and BiH. Not to mention Belgrade might be threatened by a strong Hungarian push. At the same time a victory will not leave Hungary as some kind of dominant power merely an exhauseted participant after a hard fought conflict and it is even questionable you could do more than ensure most of Bosnia and much of Croatia isn't under Serbian control.

 

[Sumeragi]

If Hungarians got Vojvodina back, they would be like "Oh, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme!" meaning that they'd get really confident, and claim back all what they used to have.

It would be a bloody annexation, so I doubt they would be in the mood for further expansion.

 

[Sang]

It would be a bloody annexation, so I doubt they would be in the mood for further expansion.

Hungary is not without friends.
Remember that both Poland and Croatia are very friendly to Hungary. Even Germany is friendly, although they would never dare to enter another war after 1945, so chances that Germany interferes are very slim.
Also, Hungary is not the only enemy of Romania: there is Bulgaria too.
Romania stole Transylvania from Hungary, and Dobrudja from Bulgaria.
Oh, and I should also mention the Rusyn people. They live in North-Eastern Slovakia and Transcarpathia. In Slovakia, they are subjected to the same forcefull Slovakization (accelerated assimilation) that Hungarians are subjected to, and they are subjected to Ukrainization in Ukraine.
They would probably side with the Hungarians in the war.

People have a tendency believe that Hungary is some sort of isolated country in the middle of Central Europe without any friends.
But that's false. Hungary does have friends and potential allies. Sure, Hungary's hated by her neighbours and Hungary returns that hate, but there are friends too, namely: Croatia, Poland, Germany and Bulgaria.

 

[Hamelus]

Hungary is not without friends.
Remember that both Poland and Croatia are very friendly to Hungary. Even Germany is friendly, although they would never dare to enter another war after 1945, so chances that Germany interferes are very slim.
Also, Hungary is not the only enemy of Romania: there is Bulgaria too.
Romania stole Transylvania from Hungary, and Dobrudja from Bulgaria.
Oh, and I should also mention the Rusyn people. They live in North-Eastern Slovakia and Transcarpathia. In Slovakia, they are subjected to the same forcefull Slovakization (accelerated assimilation) that Hungarians are subjected to, and they are subjected to Ukrainization in Ukraine.
They would probably side with the Hungarians in the war.

People have a tendency believe that Hungary is some sort of isolated country in the middle of Central Europe without any friends.
But that's false. Hungary does have friends and potential allies. Sure, Hungary's hated by her neighbours and Hungary returns that hate, but there are friends too, namely: Croatia, Poland, Germany and Bulgaria.

If Hungary starts shoving around troops into neighbouring countries, they won't have many "friends" and "potential allies" left.
Post 1945, expansionist wars in Europe is simply taboo. You don't do that kind of stuff without having the UN and the rest of Europe smash your front-door down.
As for the Rusyn people, I'd doubt that tiny minority would support Hungary, because Hungary would enact the same kind of policies on them.

Let's not even mention Transylvania, the region has a Romanian majority, and apart from the eastern part, Hungary has no reasonable claim on it.

 

[KACKO]

Hungary is not without friends.
Remember that both Poland and Croatia are very friendly to Hungary. Even Germany is friendly, although they would never dare to enter another war after 1945, so chances that Germany interferes are very slim.
Also, Hungary is not the only enemy of Romania: there is Bulgaria too.
Romania stole Transylvania from Hungary, and Dobrudja from Bulgaria.
Oh, and I should also mention the Rusyn people. They live in North-Eastern Slovakia and Transcarpathia. In Slovakia, they are subjected to the same forcefull Slovakization (accelerated assimilation) that Hungarians are subjected to, and they are subjected to Ukrainization in Ukraine.
They would probably side with the Hungarians in the war.

People have a tendency believe that Hungary is some sort of isolated country in the middle of Central Europe without any friends.
But that's false. Hungary does have friends and potential allies. Sure, Hungary's hated by her neighbours and Hungary returns that hate, but there are friends too, namely: Croatia, Poland, Germany and Bulgaria.

Forced Slovakization. Hungarians in Slovakia have elementary schools, high schools and also University. Their number is constantly on appr. 0.5 mil last few decades. Numbers are dropping slowly but they are also for Slovaks. There is more reasons for that. After 1990 people are moving to Western Europe. Slovaks and Hungarians and Rusyns. Slovak and Hungarian families are more and more opting for one max two kids. And also intermarriages are causing some drops, especially if man or woman of Hungarian ancestry will move after marriage to Slovak populated area, his kids with Slovak man, woman will be more likely riced as Slovaks. From time to time same is true other way around.
But tell me where are 200 000 (400 000 by some sources but that seems too high) Slovaks in Hungary, Their number dropped to barely 10 000, 20 000 top.
During 40 years of communist Hungarians in Slovakia had it not easy. Times after war were probably hardest. After communist took over in 1948 to 1955 it was still bed but afterwards Hungarians were allowed Hungarian schools. If commies really wanted, without schools number of hungarians would drop maybe to 100-150 000 in 40 years, But there is still around 0.5 mil. There were more in 1938? Maybe Don't forget. Hungarians killed or deported between 1938 to 1945 over 150 000 Jews from today southern Slovakia. Slovaks did the same to around 60 000. Most of them were Hungarian speaking.
Do you know how Hungary was dealinf with Hungarians from returning territories? Lowering the amount of fields with wheat, tobacco or sugar beet. This way significantly cutting of the incom of Hungarian farmers in new gained lands. No unemployment and health benefits they got during Czechoslovakia.
And Slovaks there? They schools and high schools closed, people thrown out of the jobs because they were Slovaks? Or if they wanted to stay on the job pushed to sent their kids to Hungarians schools? Well can tell there is nothing like that in Slovakia. People are thrown out of the work without discrimination. Doesn't matter what nationality they are.
As to Rusyns. After 1938 and 1938 when Hungarian annexed Ruthenia, thousands were killed by Hungarians and thousands fled to USSR where they were arrested and send to Gulags. Some of this Rusyns joined Czechoslovak army in USSR and after the war opted to move to Czech or Slovak parts of the country then returning to annexed territories. After 1945 when USSR annexed Ruthenia a lot of Rusyns from Slovakia moved to USSR. Well to late they found how big mistake they made. Also after 1945 a lot of Rusyns and Slovaks moved to Czech lands where they assimilated just by default. Languages are just to close. And same is happening now. Slovak and Rusyns intermarriages are just too often, plus moving of young people from Rusyn populated areas to by Slovak predominated areas are just too often. Especially after communist fell and a lot of factories in Eastern Slovakia closed down young people are moving out just to find jobs. With that is coming partially also loosing of the culture.
you are forgetting, that Czechoslovakia opened for young Rusyns schools and high schools. Something what Hungarians didn't allowed for Rusyns or for Slovaks.
Well friends. Same can be true about Slovakia. Godd relations with Poland, Croatia and Germany. Oh. Germany. What about Hungarization of Germans? Funny right? But true. But after 1945 all eastern Europeans countries are with their Germans on same level. They expelled them or they ran away before Soviets come.
Do you realize, that during WWII Romania, Croatia and Slovakia almost created alliance. Alliance against Hungarians.
As to Bulgarians. As my Bulgarian told me. Romanians are buying properties as crazy in Bulgaria. What Bulgarians are going to gain?
With today situation in Hungary, especially crap Orban is doing there, Hungarians can forget about some support from western Europe. Actually even Americans are jumpy now with the stuff he is doing there. He managed what Romanians, Slovaks and Serbs couldn't do.
As to Ukraine and Ruthenia. Look here on the map how many Hungarians are living there:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Etnos0.gif
And that are app. lands Hungarians got back after First Vienna award. How can Hungarians still dream about Karpatalja, when not even enough Hungarians are living there?
or all this stuff about lost lands. Hungarians should realize, that in Hungarian kingdom before 1918 they were barely around 50-60 % of the population. But they didn't even gave other nationalities right which Hungarians outside of Hungary have now.
Hungary is hated? Well maybe by some. Hungary was part of the history of others people living there. They lived there, they fought for it and died for it. But in 19th century Hungarians forgot what other people gave to Hungary. And later they paid the price. Hungarians would be better off if they stepped up and realized and maybe apologizefor mistake they made. That would make them worth of following. Well maybe others should do the same. But you should realize who was the victim there and what were just the consequences.

 

[Gwax23]

Interesting topic but clearly some real world nationalism spilling over.

More importantly the second map is the map of the paradox hearts of iron game Darkest Hour which I find hilarious .

Anyhow I could see Hungary intervening in the Yugoslav wars if they could come up with a reasonable Casus Belli they would be internationally supported and could probably gain land out of it if they won. This though would probably spiral things out of control and lead to a wider ranging conflict.

Moves Against Slovakia Ukraine Romania or Austria would not have any international backing.

Unless their is wider destability across eastern europe post Soviet Fall and the western europeans and the americans have their hands full then maybe a smart Hungary can grab land here and there but again this would simply lead to a regional war based on ethnic and nationalist tensions that moscow suppressed for decades.

Like you said lots of potential Alliances. Bulgaria joining in to fight Romania and whats left of Yugoslavia for Macedonia. Poland would help Hungary. Albania might get involved if they see an opportunity. Greece as well.

Things get messy real bad.

 

[Tizoc]

I wonder how ppl are mistaking nations being friendly to each other with willing to send own soldiers to die. I.e. Poland may be friendly with Hungary, but it doesn't mean that it'd support any Hungarian started wars. Real life is not a HoI game.

 

[KACKO]

I wonder how ppl are mistaking nations being friendly to each other with willing to send own soldiers to die. I.e. Poland may be friendly with Hungary, but it doesn't mean that it'd support any Hungarian started wars. Real life is not a HoI game.

Poland is watching Belarus right now. Big Polish minority there without political representation. On the other side. Hungarians in Romania and Slovakia actually have pretty good political representation on local and even state level. I believe in both countries their parties actually have been parts of the government. That's the way to go.
In order to really pull out incorporation of lands where Hungarians are living you really need Romanians and Slovaks behave like Serbs did in Kosovo. Mass expulsions and killings would bring international backing for Hungarians. And I don't see that. As to Ukraine and Hungarians there, the populations is just to small. Barrely 150 000 in the border region of Ruthenia. So not even justifying of incorporation of whole Ruthenia. Well, that incorporation was not justified even in 1939 because in 1938 Hungary already got border lands where Hungarians were living. Actually Rusyns proclaimed independence.

 

[KACKO]

To create Greater Hungary you need POD after Austro-Hungarian Compromise of 1867. Let say Hungarians will allow creations of Romanian, Rusyns and Slovak autonomous regions. Help with national shools where Hungarian is going to be second language and allow representation. Start there with the timeline and we can see Hungarian kingdom lasting.