Challenge:Get A Third Party Candidate to Win The US Presidency...

In 2008.

Hilary Clinton beats Obama for the nomination but it is seen as being done in an underhanded way..ie thrum superdelegates or.some.sort.of.Florida hanging Chad mess. Obama decides to run on the Green party nomination and takes many African Americans with him he.comes.out for.gay.marriage and ending the wars asap. More liberals leave the party. Several senators/comgresspeople and governors join the green party. Some dirt comes.out on Hilary so she is further weakened. Mccain has a mild heart attack so the fears about palin are greater. Green party candiadte obama wins a squeeker

I.don't.think Barack. Obama. the president. would. leave. the Democrats. especially. not for. the greens.
 

d32123

Banned
In 2008.

Hilary Clinton beats Obama for the nomination but it is seen as being done in an underhanded way..ie thrum superdelegates or.some.sort.of.Florida hanging Chad mess. Obama decides to run on the Green party nomination and takes many African Americans with him he.comes.out for.gay.marriage and ending the wars asap. More liberals leave the party. Several senators/comgresspeople and governors join the green party. Some dirt comes.out on Hilary so she is further weakened. Mccain has a mild heart attack so the fears about palin are greater. Green party candiadte obama wins a squeeker

Alien Space Bats
 
Well, there was this one guy back in the 19th century who didn't come from any of the two major parties (the Democrats and the Whigs) and amazingly enough he won the Presidency! Name of Abraham Lincoln, it was! :p;)

Not quite: the '56 election was between Buchanan (Democrat, placed first), Fremont (Republican, placed second) and Fillmore (Know Nothing, placed third), so by the time of the '60 election, the Republicans were already established as one of the two main parties of the Third Party System.
 
A sane perot with general Powell as Vp would have had a great chance. Teddy Roosevelt with a few breaks in 1912 also a good choice.

John Anderson in 1980? Maybe if Reagan had some goofs and earlier Alzheimer's which came out once he had the nomination and Carter was even weaker than in otl
Perhaps if Kennedy ran as an independant/4th party candidate pulling the more liberal votes

What if Kennedy is still so mad at Carter that he is Anderson's running mate? That ticket, combining liberal Republicans with liberal Democrats can potentially take all of New England. With the additional name recognition of Kennedy, Anderson's poll numbers shoot up and thus voters begin considering him more and more. Carter is forced to let Anderson into the debate and thus Anderson, considered one of the more intelligent men in the House, has the ability to face both major party candidates head-on.
 
I.don't.think Barack. Obama. the president. would. leave. the Democrats. especially. not for. the greens.

Probably too fast. But if Clinton was perceived to have stolen the nomination from obama I could see a break from the party. Throw in Mccain winning. In 08 over clinton if the African American vote sits it out. Mccain gets involved in a war with Iran which senator Clinton and most dems support. By 2012 a small group of dem pol's have joined the greens and in 12 are the antiwar parry which wins
 

Soundgarden

Banned
Of course. ;)

Hrm... Surely if it's post-1900, Roosevelt in 1912 is the best bet?

I'm sure that we can get some of our Roosevelt fanboys (which essentially constitute the entire forum, minus me and maybe three other fellows) to explain how he could have pulled off that.

You know, after he survived that assasination attempt and gave his scheluded speech, I'm suprised he DIDN'T win the election. He did come in second though, which I don't think has happened since with a third party candidate.
 
Another PoD for Perot winning 92 -- have Clinton fail to even get the nomination (say the Jan 60 Minutes interview has the Flowers "tapes"). Then, it's just a matter of one of the other (weaker) candidates in the field to be the Democratic nominee, and Perot's window will be huge...
 
2004.
Duelfer and Kay reports document clearly that Iraq had no WMD. They also included reports from others that said WMD were not present prior to war (UNSCOM inspections, 2002-2003), that Iraq could be stated to have "qualitative(ly) disarmed" by 2000 (Ritter, 2000), and had destroyed its weapons by 1995 (Kamil, 1995). This is a major blow to the Bush Administration- but with Kerry as the nominee it's a blow to him, having supported the war on the claim that Iraq had WMD- and being the senator who requested Ritter's report, doubly so. Based on this, Nader begins his campaign on the issue of opposition to Iraq. The increasing death toll does nothing to increase support for the war. Bush and Kerry's popularity sinks, though it's still a nail-biter in the General election.
 

Stolengood

Banned
Could Huey Long have had a chance in '36 if he hadn't been assassinated?
I don't think he was running on a third-party ticket, though; he'd threatened to challenge Franklin Roosevelt for the Democratic nomination, but... obviously, didn't get around to doing that.
 
Of course. ;)

Hrm... Surely if it's post-1900, Roosevelt in 1912 is the best bet?

I'm sure that we can get some of our Roosevelt fanboys (which essentially constitute the entire forum, minus me and maybe three other fellows) to explain how he could have pulled off that.

No they don't constitute the forum, and he couldn't have won.
 
...and Dan Quayle takes over the campaign as the nominee. People are angry on both sides that the candidates they picked aren't running. Ross Perot wipes the floor with Al Gore and Dan Quayle which is a pile of boring and stupid compared to Perot...

No way Quayle gets the nomination if there's a Bush death if the GOP has a choice. More likely you get someone like Dole. The RNC would make the selection if this happens after the convention -- but if the death happens late enough, it will be too late to change ballots and Bush's name will remain on the ballot, in which case who gets the Bush electoral votes depends on what the Bush electors choose to do.

What happens to the Democrats depends upon when the scandal breaks. If it's before the convention but after Clinton amasses enough delegates, you'd have a free-for-all in New York at the convention. In that case, it is not clear at all whether Gore would be nominated. If it's after the convention, the Democratic National Committee makes the selection. In that case, Gore probably gets it, but, then again, Gore, having been picked by a now-discredited Clinton, may get passed over for someone else.
 
Roosevelt can't win as the Progressive Party's standard-bearer. If he had won the Republican nomination in 1912, he'd easily win over Champ Clark, though. But I doubt he can seriously win as a third party candidate. The Progressive Party had no party structure or foundation, other than being a cult of personality for Roosevelt to run for a third term. Sure, it elected a few others, but it's base purpose was to elect Roosevelt to another term. Failing that, it of course dissolved.

La Follette can't win in 1924.

Thurmond and Wallace are regional candidates that can't win. Wallace could win, provided he won the Democratic nomination in 1972 or 1976, though. He just can't do it alone.

Anderson can't win alone, and I wonder if he could even win as the Republican nominee.

Perot could possibly win in 1992, but not in 1996. Perot is also guilty of the 'creating a cult of personality and calling it a political party' sin.

Nader can't win.


Everyone seems to be overlooking the Socialist Party of America here. I don't think that Debs could ever have been elected, but I do think that his party could seriously contest and win the Presidency if the Progressive Era is butterflied away. McKinley avoids assassination, the progressives move to the left and join the SPA, and it becomes a social democratic party, with the left of the party forming the early Communist Party. Republicans dominate the White House until the *Great Depression, assuming there is one, and then the Socialists get their chance in power.
 
Everyone seems to be overlooking the Socialist Party of America here. I don't think that Debs could ever have been elected, but I do think that his party could seriously contest and win the Presidency if the Progressive Era is butterflied away. McKinley avoids assassination, the progressives move to the left and join the SPA, and it becomes a social democratic party, with the left of the party forming the early Communist Party. Republicans dominate the White House until the *Great Depression, assuming there is one, and then the Socialists get their chance in power.

I remember reading in an old book about the SPA - I found it last year when shelving at my college library, though I can't remember the book's name unfortunately -which in one section analyzed the fate of the party in context of government repression during the Red Scare of 1919-20. Some ex-SPA officials later claimed that, had Palmer et al. not destroyed the Socialist political apparatus before the 1920 election, the SPA could have gotten up to 3 million votes (upwards of 11% of the popular vote). This would leave the party in a stronger position, and when the various independent / progressive action committees begin to meet, the eventual Progressive Party would have a larger socialist base as part of its constituency. Give La Follette an extra few million, and suddenly he's winning 20% or more of the popular vote. Still nowhere near the presidency, though....
 
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