Challenge: Earliest possible California Gold Rush?

I think a Mexican discovery of it actually quickens the American takeover, and it will either be Texas style or the USA outright saying "it's our manifest destiny and since you took California from Spain in the first place, it's anyone's claim so we claim it and we're declaring war if you don't back down"

If the discovery is early enough, there may be so many Hispanics in the area that American conquest is untenable.
 

Deleted member 97083

If the discovery is early enough, there may be so many Hispanics in the area that American conquest is untenable.
If it's too early, though, they'll identify with Spain instead of Mexico, or as a separate nation. A Spanish-settled California could be as different from Mexico as Colombia is from Mexico.
 
If it's too early, though, they'll identify with Spain instead of Mexico, or as a separate nation. A Spanish-settled California could be as different from Mexico as Colombia is from Mexico.

Most Spanish American countries broke on lines of audiencias. California will in all likelihood not have its own audiencia.
 
Adding to that, I would think it could actually have the opposite effect. Unlike OTL where the Californios were less united with the government of Mexico City, having the area actually be more linked due to a higher settlement and more contact and transit and stuff, there would perhaps be more unity with the rest of NewSpain/Mexico.
 

Deleted member 97083

Most Spanish American countries broke on lines of audiencias.
Most, yes. But Central America was one Audiencia of Guatemala, but it broke apart into 6 different countries. And Argentina did not inherit the whole Rio de la Plata, with Uruguay and Paraguay breaking off.

California will in all likelihood not have its own audiencia.
Northern Mexico/New Spain was granted its own audiencia, called the Audiencia of Nueva Galicia. A Spanish-settled California, along with northern Mexico, could break off with the rest of Nueva Galicia.
 
Northern Mexico/New Spain was granted its own audiencia, called the Audiencia of Nueva Galicia. A Spanish-settled California, along with northern Mexico, could break off with the rest of Nueva Galicia.

To my knowledge, California was not part of the Provincias Internas, so was it covered by the Audiencia of Nueva Galicia? I guess if Spain made the Provincias Internas and California its own “Viceroyalty of New Galicia” as it was considering in 1776, considering no post-Spanish borders crossed viceregal lines, that would assuredly make California part of a “North Mexican” country.

Furthermore, most Hispanics in California would surely be recent Mexican immigrants at the time of independence, would they not? And would there not be links between California, the most populous and Spanish part of Northern New Spain, and the rest of New Spain?
 

Deleted member 97083

Furthermore, most Hispanics in California would surely be recent Mexican immigrants at the time of independence, would they not?
Not necessarily. IOTL that was the case with the tiny population of Californios... but if California had been settled more extensively from early on, then it would take a huge spike in the rate of migration to make that the case.

And would there not be links between California, the most populous and Spanish part of Northern New Spain, and the rest of New Spain?
There would be links, but it doesn't necessarily mean they'd want to be part of the same country. Considering how much difficulty the Centralist Republic of Mexico had IOTL, ruling all that land from Mexico City won't be easy.
 
Not necessarily. IOTL that was the case with the tiny population of Californios... but if California had been settled more extensively from early on, then it would take a huge spike in the rate of migration to make that the case.


There would be links, but it doesn't necessarily mean they'd want to be part of the same country. Considering how much difficulty the Centralist Republic of Mexico had IOTL, ruling all that land from Mexico City won't be easy.

Depends on when the Spanish discover the gold, I'd think.

Eh, a PoD so early is no guarantee for something like the Centralist Republic happening.
 
Not necessarily. IOTL that was the case with the tiny population of Californios... but if California had been settled more extensively from early on, then it would take a huge spike in the rate of migration to make that the case.

How early do you envision the discovery of gold? I’ve envisioned it being about 1800, in which case there would be predominantly Mexican immigration to California due to the isolation that existed between Spain and its colonies thanks to the blockade of Cadiz.
 

Deleted member 97083

How early do you envision the discovery of gold? I’ve envisioned it being about 1800, in which case there would be predominantly Mexican immigration to California due to the isolation that existed between Spain and its colonies thanks to the blockade of Cadiz.
Since you said "If the discovery is early enough, there may be so many Hispanics in the area that American conquest is untenable." I was thinking the 1500s-1700s.
 
Since you said "If the discovery is early enough, there may be so many Hispanics in the area that American conquest is untenable." I was thinking the 1500s-1700s.

That’s drastic overkill. Such an early POD would have more than a few butterlies. For instance, a slightly more northerly route between the Philippines and the Americas could very well mean a discovery of Hawaii by Spain.

No, my idea was that by 1800, the US was still settling the Old West, and so by the time they pit their eyes on California, there will have been at least two generations of Hispanics born in California.
 
That’s drastic overkill. Such an early POD would have more than a few butterlies. For instance, a slightly more northerly route between the Philippines and the Americas could very well mean a discovery of Hawaii by Spain.

No, my idea was that by 1800, the US was still settling the Old West, and so by the time they pit their eyes on California, there will have been at least two generations of Hispanics born in California.
I agree on the US moving westward thing. so many people are Assigning mid 1800's mobility/power in late 1700's. by the 1780's, the US is barely crossing the apalachians. they're not trekking all the way to California and taking over the place.

a discovery at a time when the continent was barely discovered (by Europeans) and during the initial conquest/exploration makes the entire settlement/situation unrecognizable.

You can send an exploration up the coast/west California anytime you want, but if you want a realistic POD without a simple hand wavium, you have to go with the Bourbon exploration/settlement in the mid-late 1700's, and at that time, New Spain is barely making their way into California. What happens? Sure you're going to have a rush from Mexico, but as with the northern mining of Mexico/New Spain, this doesn't involve massive immigration. You'll have a lot of gold seekers, but no infrastructure, and no real communications with the populated parts of New Spain. Spain only has a tenuous hold on the region - it's mostly Spanish colors on maps. Other major powers, such as Britain, may swoop in and grab it.

The Russians were exploring/staking a claim to the region in that time frame, too, so they might be the ones making the discovery. Distance is against them, though, so it's going to be tough for them to hold on to it.
 
When would the Mexicans being able to claim the gold rush there without having the US try to go there, or st least be very difficult
 
Any response on the fog issue?

IIRC the issue is not the fog so much as the difficulties pre-steam ships had sailing to California from Mexico. It's not an easy trip to make from south to north by ship.

One alternative to overland settlement is the Manila Galleon route, which sailed across the northern Pacific and turned south to Mexico using the trade winds. An early Spanish California might see heavy settlement coming from Asia-Spanish traders in Manila who failed to make it big and decide to make a go of it panning for gold, Chinese professionals looking to make money in the new world, samurai mercenaries on the treasure fleets blocked from returning to Japan, Philippino conversos given land in California, etc.
 
IIRC the issue is not the fog so much as the difficulties pre-steam ships had sailing to California from Mexico. It's not an easy trip to make from south to north by ship.

One alternative to overland settlement is the Manila Galleon route, which sailed across the northern Pacific and turned south to Mexico using the trade winds. An early Spanish California might see heavy settlement coming from Asia-Spanish traders in Manila who failed to make it big and decide to make a go of it panning for gold, Chinese professionals looking to make money in the new world, samurai mercenaries on the treasure fleets blocked from returning to Japan, Philippino conversos given land in California, etc.
wasn't it eventually discovered that the trick was to sail west on the westerly winds for a ways, then head north and catch the easterly winds and end up on the northern coast?
 
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